War and Peas - Hortlund (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

12/14/41
 
Allied Shipping:  Not a single Allied ship was sunk today!  After taking it on the chops for a week this was refreshing.  The opening week of the war saw the Allies lose 101 ships for a total of roughly 971 points.  However and contrary to my opponent's comments after the first turn, I found the losses at Pearl (and now elsewhere through week one) relatively light.  The Allies have lost two BBs and CA Exeter and several small CLs  Damage to the merchant and support fleets fleeing Hong Kong and Manila were signficiantly higher.  Steve did a very nice job implementing an effective blockade. 

Japanese Shipping:  Japan has lost CA Chokai and CL Kashami.  CA Kumano was heavily damaged and will be out of the war for many months.  Japan hasn't suffered any damage from subs to this point.

NoPac:  Oof!  I juked when I should haved deked (or something like that).  My USN DD TF slated to probe at Attu missed out on IJN Tfs landing at Adak and Umnak.  Close but no cigar.  The Japanese DD TF is back in the middle of the Gulf of Alaska.  Saratoga is to the landward side.  Don't know if she's been spotted.

CenPac:  No KB sightings today.

SwPac:  Two RO-class subs near Milne Bay got a glimpse of an RAN cruiser TF heading for Rabaul.  I feel sure Steve is monitoring the Torres Straits and half epxecting Lex and Ent to make for that passage.  That's the plan.  I have a replenishment TF waiting nearby plus a small ASW TF to patrol the narrows.  But I'm re-evaluating the plan and may not take a chance with my carriers; or I may conclude that "war is hell" and it's necessary to take chances sometimes.

DEI:  The east is relatively quiet though Morotai will fall tomorrow.  In the west Singawkang and Mersing fall.  Allied troops in goodly numbers will occupy the wooded hex west of Mersing to prevent Japan from severing the road to Singapore.  Japan only landed two regiments, so this isn't a full-blown threat.

Bay of Bengal:  I am relieved and pleased that most of two Indian brigades landed without incident at Port Blair.  I'll sleep better knowing that base can't be blitzed.  Troops also landed at Diego Garcia.

China:  The Chinese made their first intentional stand.  Two corps were attacked unsuccessfully by IJA 35th Div. in a forested hex south (true) of Chengchow.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Japanese Shipping:  Japan has lost CA Chokai and CL Kashami.  CA Kumano was heavily damaged and will be out of the war for many months.  Japan hasn't suffered any damage from subs to this point.

Given the trade-off you made to get reliable torps you need to get some bang in the first six months. Given that I am now a mightly expert at the Japanese economy [:)] I would say you have near zero risk in sending fleet boats into shallow water in this early period. Avoid going into ports themsleves, but shallow is fine. The early IJN ASW is beyond pathetic. Not only mostly converted xAKLs dropping DCs, but many are the small type and many are set shallow. An ASW rating of 2 is "good", and there is very little air ASW support. You can operate in the Sea of Japan with impunity for example. It sounds crazy given what will happen later, but right now you can go wherever you want.

Before the big resource and POL centers are taken there are really about four key ports he'll probably be using to get the economy going. Two on Hokkaido, Port Arthur, and Kunsan (?) on the west side of Korea. You should flood the Yellow Sea with subs and use aggessive skippers who will fight on the surface. You'll begin to do some damage if you throw later ASW doctrine out the window and "act crazy" now. Go where his merchants are and kill some. Don't worry so much about getting warships. Feast while the gettin's good. Put aside your training and send the subs where "good sense" says you shouldn't.

[Canoerebel]

That's helpful advice, Bullwinkle.  Thanks.
 
PH has suddenly and completely disappeared.  Haven't heard from him for several days.  I don't know his habits and schedules yet, so I don't know if this is typical or unusual, but I'll just kick back for a few more days before I get in touch with him.  But I'm pretty sure he's not demoralized by the opening week of the war.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Miller

It will take much longer than 3-6 months to secure China, more like 18 at least.

Actually, with a competent defense China should hold out til early 1944. With some bastions holding a bit longer. On no account should you lose the road to Burma. That is really a big deal-not the loss of China.

CR. MY opponent took the route up North all the way to Cold Harbor. However, in 1943 I easily took it all back with a winter campaign. It was not a problem I just bypassed Japanese strong points and took smaller bases and built them up. Then as soon as the spring weather came in 44, I invaded the large isolated bases and took them out quickly. The Allies can do this with the help of the invaluable LST. Personally, I do not think winter is a big issue up North. It should be. but is not.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Miller

It will take much longer than 3-6 months to secure China, more like 18 at least.

Actually, with a competent defense China should hold out til early 1944. With some bastions holding a bit longer. On no account should you lose the road to Burma. That is really a big deal-not the loss of China.

If I´m not mistaken the Burma road is already closed.

[Cribtop]

He means lose physical possession of the Burma Road. In that instance, Chinese troops can't flee to supply plentiful India and the Japanese suddenly have a much more defensible line of communications on the flank of any Allied advance on Rangoon. An Allied nightmare scenario.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's helpful advice, Bullwinkle.  Thanks.

The Korean port is Keijo. I was only close on the 'K'.

[Canoerebel]

12/15/41

NoPac: My innocent little DD TF found some a small transport TF, dispatched a couple of ships, and then ran into a powerful TF including BBs Yamashiro and Mutsu. One USN DD goes under and the TF will flee for it's life to the west and then south (Midway). Just to the east, a lonely xAKL that had arrived in the Aleutians from Midway ran afoul of a part of the KB - cursor shows two CV with 90 strike aircraft. Shazam! I have several TFs not too far to the east (5 DDs, one replenishment, one carrying a CD unit). They will flee to the east. Saratoga had pulled back and should be free from danger unless Steve picked up an actual hard sighting and vectored in the KB, it acting as the hammer and the force near Adak as the anvil. Sara will pull backa bit and then retire to Seattle. I dispatched some picket ships out of Seattle a few days ago, so a nice screen is almost in place.

SWPac: It looks like Steve is going to press into the eastern DEI. I want Ent and Lex there. They are about to refuel (an AO pre-positioned near Cooktown to handle this contingency). I have a small Aussie ASW force ready to patrol the entrance to the Torres Straits. I'm worried about subs, but I can make good use of the carriers in the DEI. If my CVs are sighted, even that could be useful as it should make Steve cautious.

DEI: I think Steve is coming for Ambon. Two Allied combat TFs will patrol a couple of choke points. They may be sacrificial lambs, but i'm trying to slow the Japanese down until the carriers can get here. Hermes is only four days away.

Luzon: Not sure yet, but don't think Steve is pressing hard here.

Malaya: Same here.

Burma: I'm trying to cobble together a force to hit Meiktila, but I don't have much to work with.

China: Nothing major yet.

Political Points: I naddition to the usual small but important expenditures (mainly to handle TF and sub commanders), I need to accumulate big numbers for three important but cumulatively unaffordable expenses:

1. I would love to use Chinese troops to help defend India. Some of the Chinese divisions that start near the Burmese border are cheap. Those could help secure India. It's worth it.

2. I have two USA divisions (27 and 41) that can be deployed to Oz or India. If I buy the Chinese units, I may then focus on one of the USA divisions to send to Oz.

3. With Diego Garcia and Port Blair secured against blitzkried, I'd feel really good if I did the same at Cocos Island. This is a good but not essential expenditure. I'm debating buying a Dutch unit for about 100 AV and sending it fro Soerabaja to Cocos by ship.

[Cribtop]

Well, if Hermes is almost there, victory is assured. [:D]

Just teasing - the plan makes sense, but it just shows how tough it is to play Allies at first when one is thrilled about the impending arrival of that particular rustbucket. [;)]

[JeffroK]

Not sure about availability of air transport yet, but you could fly the Chinese from Kunming to Ledo!

[Canoerebel]

That's pretty much the plan.

I'm thinking that I may rely on China to help defend India, while the USA contributes to Australia.

Some early Chinese units will be purchased and march across the border into India. If Chinese gets pressed hard, though, or if it appears Steve is coming hard from India, I'll begin a large air transport from Chengtu (not sure that's the right name) to Ledo.

[crsutton]

You have about eight to 10 Chinese units that are yellow restricted and can be flown out of India if bought out with PPs. Put them all together and they equal about one full 800 squad corps so it is not much. Otherwise, everything in China is white restricted and has to walk out of China to India (if there is a way out) It takes time but as the Japanese player advances in China you will be faced with such low supply levels that your units will not take replacements and you will have about a million shattered Chinese infantry units that will need to be rebuilt. It took forever but I marched a lot of them overland to Mytikynia (sp) which I took back in late 1943. Supply will pull from India to there in the non monsoon months and you can rebuild Chinese units there. Those that I could fly out went to Calcutta. Bear in mind that the C47 will not carry the 105 mm gun so you may not want to upgrade the 75mm guns of those units you want to air transport.

If you have a HR against moving Chinese units out of India that are white restricted then you have made a bad deal and need discuss it with Panzer Hortland as you might just end up with a lot of useless fragmented units eating up your supply in the far Western corners of China. I would tell him that if Chungking falls or is surrounded then all bets are off as far as restricting units to Chinese borders. Something reasonable that will release you when you start to run out of Chinese cities.

[Keifer]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

You have about eight to 10 Chinese units that are yellow restricted and can be flown out of India if bought out with PPs. Put them all together and they equal about one full 800 squad corps so it is not much. Otherwise, everything in China is white restricted and has to walk out of China to India (if there is a way out) It takes time but as the Japanese player advances in China you will be faced with such low supply levels that your units will not take replacements and you will have about a million shattered Chinese infantry units that will need to be rebuilt. It took forever but I marched a lot of them overland to Mytikynia (sp) which I took back in late 1943. Supply will pull from India to there in the non monsoon months and you can rebuild Chinese units there. Those that I could fly out went to Calcutta. Bear in mind that the C47 will not carry the 105 mm gun so you may not want to upgrade the 75mm guns of those units you want to air transport.

If you have a HR against moving Chinese units out of India that are white restricted then you have made a bad deal and need discuss it with Panzer Hortland as you might just end up with a lot of useless fragmented units eating up your supply in the far Western corners of China. I would tell him that if Chungking falls or is surrounded then all bets are off as far as restricting units to Chinese borders. Something reasonable that will release you when you start to run out of Chinese cities.

crsutton, Sounds like something Hitler would have said.

[Canoerebel]

12/16/41

I did something so reckless I should be discharged from the AE fraternity. I had promised PH a turn late this afternoon, but ran out of time due to several major commitments. Anxious to keep my word, I did the turn without watching the combat replay. I did have the benefit of the combat report. This is something I wouldn't do except under extreme duress of keeping a promise.

NoPac: Nothing happened today. Nobody bumped into anybody. I'm wondering just how much trouble is lurking out there. I will say this: surrendering the Aleutians to small, weak enemy invasions would be bad. But having Japan commit carriers and BBs is a bit of an Allied victory. I'd rather have 'em there than in the DEI.

SWPac: You know you've entered a new realm when transiting the Torres Strait becomes a major operation. I am pretty sure two IJN RO-class bus are there (an AVP was sunk by one today). My carriers should pass through in two days. They will follow a small ASW force and two other ASW forces will patrol the straits. The carriers will refuel tomorrow or the next day.

Eastern DEI: Lots and lots and lots of Japanese shipping just north of Ceram. I know the Mini KB is out there and at least two BBs. Steve is not leaping forward in reckless frolic, because he probably suspects Force Z is out there - and it is. I want to slow Steve if I can, because he's putting some effort into this push, but I don't think the KB can be a factor for some time.

Western DEI: Things have slowed temporarily. The Mersing Gambit is in play, but Steve's force is probably only 300 AV strong. I might see if I can push them back.

[Canoerebel]

I face two critical questions today. I've already entered the orders, but still have about 1/2 hour to re-think them.  What do you think?
 
1.  Big IJ landing at Ambon covered by several BBs plus the Mini KB to the rear.  Force Z, with a good commanding officer and full ammo, is within striking range.  Do I commit her in an effort to strike while I have a chance (Ambon will fall tomorrow, so Japan will have a level four airfield in play beginning the day after tomorrow).  Or do I withhold Force Z in hopes that two American carriers can reach theater in about four or five days, thus giving the Allies a combined force of some strength?
 
2.  The Aussie ASW TF in the Torres Strait found one of the enemy RO-class boats psoted there.  One of the Aussie ASW sank as a result.  I have another ASW TF set to arrive tomorrow (three DMS).  The two American carriers, following yet another ASW TF (this one with two DMS) will transit the strait during nightime phase day after tomorrow.  I can definately make good use of the CVs in the eastern DEI to slow down Japan a bit, but am I taking too big a risk in transiting the straits against a picket of subs (believed to be two RO class)?

[Keifer]

1.) If Ambon is going to fall anyways, what is the point of attacking? What do you gain by attacking? Kill a few marus? What do you have to lose? POW & Repulse. I'd wait until the US CV's arrive and put POW with Enterprise and Repulse with Lexington. If the Japanese attack your Carrier TFs, there is a good chance some of the bombers will go after the BB/BCs and it might save a CV.
-It might be worth sending in some British CL/DD to Ambon if they're with Force Z in range. They'd be worth risking for some Marus or a chance of putting a Torp into a Japanese BB.

2.) Run the Straits. You've done your due diligence with the ASW task forces to clear the way. If the CVs get hit, they get hit.

[Cribtop]

Unless you believe you'll nail several IJN capital ships in an exchange battle. Exchanges at Sea are good for the Allies. Problem is, if you don't destroy stuff in the night phase and stick around, the enemy CVLs may send you to the bottom free of charge, so to speak. Keifer's point is well taken. Ask yourself whether you plan to use your CVs aggressively or simply snipe around the edges. If the former, surviving bomb magnets may come in handy. Then again, again, remember that IJN CVLs tend to carry Kates and no Vals (not that Kates can't carry bombs once the torps are out).

[Canoerebel]

12/17/41
 
Malaya:  Three IJA regiments involved in a belated Mersing Gambit attack in the wooded hex and get a bloody nose.  Steve hasn't closed the trap and the road remains open. He'll have to reinforce or bomb heavily if he wants to push the Allies into Singapore.
 
Java and Vicinity:  An IJ fast transport invasion of the base east of Batavia runs into the Batavia CD unit (that was a luck placement for me).  He may or may not have enough to take the hex.  The Allies buy a decent Dutch unit at Soerabaja and begin loading (set to "no supply") for Cocos Island.  I'll feel better if I can get that back door secured against a blitz attack.
 
Eastern DEI:  Japan is landing 4th Div. at Ambon and will take the base tomorrow.  Per the counsel of the Peanut Gallery, I elected not to commit Forze Z.  That TF will retire south of Timor, rendezvous with CVL Hermes, and see if the cavalry (Ent and Lex) will show.  Koepang has 100 AV and plenty of mines.  Not enough to constitute a fortress, but no longer a pushover.
 
Torres Strait: An RO-class boat tangles with the Aussie ASW minesweepers and sinks one.  As stated in the post above, the Allies have configured their forces to make the best of a forced passed through the straits.  This will take place not next turn, but the night phase of the following turn.  The Pucker Factor will be in effect.
 
NoPac:  I-15 sinks AO Brazos near Anchorage.  I'm hoping that suggest to Steve that the Allies had some major stuff going on up here, when actually I'm pulling back.  Saratoga, currently near Prince Rupert, will make for Seattle and pray that the line of picket ships is positioned correctly and is accurately reporting no signs of the KB.  Japan has already taken Adak, Amchitka and Attu.

[Keifer]

Just to be clear, I think BB's in CV task forces are great torpedo magnets. They can take the hit much better than the CV.

[BBfanboy]

Target speed is a big factor in sub attacks. Go full speed and the sub:
- is less likely to spot you at all
- if he does spot you, will have less chance to get in position
- if he does get lucky enough to shoot, is less likely to hit

And if you are unspotted, you may be able to do a little mugging of foreign tourists ...