Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

SoPac Area 23rd of May 1943

So, KB (or part of) finally showed up. I have no idea why he decided to show at least part of it to me at Tulagi. He knows I get excellent intel from it and have been for almost a month now. This leads me to believe he wants me to see parts of it and perhaps believe it to be the full KB. If so parts of the KB is raiding somewhere...

If it is the full KB I have no idea why he decided to show me where it is. Either he is going to try and penetrate my perimeter with it or he is trying to scare me into suspending operations. If I were him I wouldn´t want to go up against LBA at this time. He could certainly penetrate whatever CAP I put up as the game seems to have a tendency to let all KB strikes to go right through almost without losses. But there is simply no targets valuable enough for him to risk loosing pilots for. I´m just using barges, LSTs, SC and a CL Division. Everything is done under aircover with no value ships.

Perhaps the next turn will show what he wants. I reshuffled a few air groups. Unfortunately all my "class A" airgroups (80+ EXP Pilots in Corsairs and Hellcats) are too fatigued after LRCAPing my landing at Torres Island to participate. So I moved up 50 Spits with 32 Elite pilots and augmented that with some 100 F4Fs.

I only withdrew the LST offloading the last supply on Torres and redirected all TFs outside bases to get under CAP.

Could be an interesting turn. If he gets to close I have the 60 DBs and 50 TBs Efafe with a 8 range setting. They are set to be escorted by 28 Wildcats. If he can get through time and time again with almost zero losses so should I...

Another option could be that he got cold feet and decided to withdraw from Ndeni and thinks he needs CV cover for it. If so I´ll be happy to have it.

A completely other option could be that Erik does what Erik usually does and goes for an all out counter attack. Not likely though...

Here is the situation!

[BBfanboy]

[JocMeister]

First battle of Torrest Island! (May 27th 1943)

After two days of Japanese sweeps over Torres Island the Allies rise to challenge. For the first time in the war the Japanese face off against the Corsairs and Hellcats in big numbers as almost 50 Corsairs and 50 Hellcats take to the sky!

Results are excellent! With some luck Erik had offloaded some of his Carrier groups and they are among the victims! That might be wishing for too much though!

Later in the day the Japanese tries a massed Para drop over the base. But the Allied LRCAP takes its toll and flak claims a few victims. The 11th Marine stands their ground.

Ground combat at Torres Islands (120,147)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 1188 troops, 17 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 86

Defending force 994 troops, 49 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 32

Japanese adjusted assault: 54

Allied adjusted defense: 41

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
67 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
36 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Assaulting units:
4th Raiding Rgt /1
3rd Raiding Rgt /1
1st Raiding Rgt /1
Yokosuka 3rd SNLF /1
Yokosuka 1st SNLF /1

Defending units:
11th Marine Defense Battalion

Obviously the Marines are in some problems unless we can help them out. I have no idea why Erik thought this a good idea. I can only speculate that he thought he could win air superiority over Torres and then easily extract his troops via air once the base was captured. I think this might have been a case of "I must do something".

I have a plan to try and save the Marines. Its pretty straight forward. Tomorrow 150 Fighters will LRCAP over the base hopefully removing any aircover over Torres. 300 4Es and 100 2Es will fly ground support. If weather permits and they fly I think Eriks 1700 paratroopers will cease to exist after that. [:)]

I have a CL force sweeping up from Efafe and another force of 2 CAs and some DMs trying to lay a mine field. I also have another batch of PTs taking up station. I will not commit any major surface assets at Torres Island yet.

Lets see what the Second day of Battle brings!

Here are the losses!

[JocMeister]

Aircraft pools concerning the SoPac operations.

[BBfanboy]

Nice LRCAP trap!
Note that all those invaders are fragments. If he is willing to take the air losses he can drop again next turn and he will have enough to take the island.
Do you have any paratroops or raider units you can fly in? Any unit with good AV and little equipment will help. Using Catalinas for transport enables you to bring more equipment than just using C-47s - e.g. I think a Cat can carry some A/T or AA guns that C-47s cannot.

[JocMeister]

He did indeed fly in more troops but the bombers saved the day and the 11th Marine defense battalion! [:)]
I have a raider unit en route but it will take 3 days until they land. I hope I can keep his forces suppressed! Going by todays results it should be doable!

Battle for Torres Island Day 2

Another great day for the Allies! The sweep/LRCAP over Torres completely clear the air. Wildcats take some losses but only one pilot is lost. And with 300 Wildcats now in the pool I don´t worry too much! [:'(]

The CL force I sent in are a bit of an disappointment to say the least. They clash with four DDs that fight back ferociously.

Day Time Surface Combat, near Torres Islands at 120,147, Range 23,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Nenohi
DD Yugure, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Murakumo, Shell hits 4, heavy fires
DD Mochizuki, Shell hits 4, on fire

Allied Ships
CL Cleveland
CL Columbia
DD Fletcher, Shell hits 4
DD Abbot
DD Aulick, Shell hits 1
DD Bache
DD Chevalier, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Conway

Later in the day 300 4Es and 100 2Es come in over Torres in scattered waves. Results are encouraging and have a enormous effect on the following battle.

Ground combat at Torres Islands (120,147)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 1941 troops, 25 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 91

Defending force 960 troops, 49 guns, 5 vehicles, Assault Value = 25

Japanese adjusted assault: 1 [X(]

Allied adjusted defense: 59

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 59 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-), supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
73 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
27 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Assaulting units:
4th Raiding Rgt /1
Yokosuka 3rd SNLF /1
1st Raiding Rgt /1
3rd Raiding Rgt /1
Yokosuka 1st SNLF /1

Defending units:
11th Marine Defense Battalion

I guess that bombing raid took out all the supply and shot the disruption up through the roof!

Here are todays losses!

[JocMeister]

Battle for Torres Island Day 3

After a day of rest the battle resumes on the 30th of May!

Last turn I noticed Erik is getting REALLY thin on fighters in the area. Only 36 were listed over Ndeni. The whole Torres Battle started because I wanted an airbase within good sweeping distance to Ndeni. But I took a chance and it worked!

Ndeni airfield is now CLOSED! [X(]

This is a huge relief for me. I had expected weeks if not months of fighting to wrestle the air superiority over Ndeni from Erik. Now he will have to LRCAP from his bases in the Solomons evening out the odds! This is fantastic news and I´m almost ecstatic now! [:)]

So I took a chance. I gathered all the P38s I had in the area and sent them over Ndeni. Ofcourse my two groups set to LRCAP failed to show up... But the 25 that did just ripped through the small CAP.

Then the 4Es show up. Here one of the P38 are listed in the combat report but they didn´t show up in the replay?

Morning Air attack on Ndeni , at 120,143

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1 Rex x 3
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 10



Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 69
B-17F Fortress x 11
LB-30 Liberator x 14
B-24D Liberator x 66
B-24D1 Liberator x 49
P-38G Lightning x 24


Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 10 damaged
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 5 destroyed on ground
Ki-56 Thalia: 3 destroyed on ground
H6K2-L Mavis: 2 destroyed on ground
A6M5 Zero: 3 destroyed on ground

Allied aircraft losses
B-17F Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
11 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Airbase hits 47
Airbase supply hits 10
Runway hits 126

Ndeni is now listed at 86 runway damage. With the Jap engineers I guess that will take a while to fix? I will NOT let it become operational again.

He also sent in 2 DDs during the night phase. It looked like he was reinforcing but I don´t know for sure. Both took some shells from the 5inch guns and something went BOOM on a mine! [:D]

Here are the losses. Not as impressive as the last few days but this is all that took from the sky over Ndeni. Going through all his bases in the SOPAC I can only find about 100 fighters scattered over different bases with 75 at Rabaul. Will he return in strenght?

[JocMeister]

6/7 -43

SOPAC remains quiet. I´m bringing in an additional 100AV with some tanks to deal with his paratroopers. Until they arrive much is quiet. No efforts from Eriks side to reinforce or withdraw. Invasion of Ndeni is about a month away.

Rest of the map is dead quiet too. Next invasions are Cold Bay in NOPAC and Mornington and Horn Island in SOPAC.

[JocMeister]

The future of Burma

I have been looking over the map for hours now but I can´t really decide what to do here. My last excursion showed that supply won´t be an issue and that his airforce was way too strong. His airforce can be dealt with in October I think. More on that later.

I think I have two options to go for here. Either I go for Rangoon or I make an attempt to "free" the Chinese. My problem is that I can´t really decide! I don´t think I will be able to do both so I will have to pick one and go for it.

Rangoon
Liberating Rangoon would probably make his position in Burma unattainable due to lack of supply. Some will flow from China but not enough to sustain his 300.000 men Army. This would probably force him to withdraw to Thailand and/or China. Its would also probably make it impossible to free the Chinese until the Soviets come from the East.

Liberating China
I´m not even sure this is doable and I don´t know how much supply I could get flowing through the mountains from Burma. But if I could get the Chinese in supply thats some 25K(!) worth of now EXP 50 AV. And I have some 4000 squads in the pools just waiting...If I could get them in supply I think he be in some serious problems. He has kept some stuff around but I think A LOT of his Chinese Armies are now in SOPAC and Burma...
I see a lot of problems trying this but if I could pull it off...

I would love to get some input on this. If someone else have a completely other idea I´m all ears! [:)]

Airforce
As my Burma air offensive showed I couldn´t endure the attrition a month ago. In October a lot of things will have changed and I hope I can break him enough to let my substantial bomber force come to play. By the time October arrives an additional 200 Fighters will have arrived bringing up the total strength to about 700(!).
I will also have the P47 this time around. Apparently its a pretty nifty aircraft to have around! [:)]

Pools will look like this in Burma:
US:
40 P38
56 P47
125 P40
35 P39
130 Hellcats

Together with the British this sums up to about 400 AC per month. I don´t know what number the Japanese can produce at this stage? What would be reasonable to expect? I will try to keep up pressure in the SOPAC region and I might even try something in the CENTPAC. Everything I can to prevent him from moving troops to Burma.

So the Million dollar question is: What do I do with my 10K AV in India? Here is a screenshot of 3 possible routes that I´m contemplating. I won´t be able to bring in ANY support via sea unless it can be done under LBA.

[BBfanboy]

Rangoon is a long way south; if you can't bring any supply by sea, it will be difficult to build anything or conduct air ops.
I favour the opening of the Burma Road. Make sure you have lots of anti-tank guns and/or tanks!

[witpqs]

IMO there is no way that you will get enough supply through the jungle to all of open the road, supply a defense of the road, supply a clearing of the road into China, and supply China. If you take and build up fully the coastal bases (Akyab, Ramree Island) and capture Prome on up to establish the shortest supply link possible, then you will get some supply into China.

The Burma Road proper is open by having Rangoon and a (IIRC)road/rail link kall the way to Tuyun. Then 500 supply per day just appear at Chungking as 'Daily Supply'. That's a big deal when you manage to do it.

Going straight in to 'free' the Chinese is the least likely to succeed and, if it succeeds, will provide the least benefit. On the other hand, if you do take Rangoon then as mentioned the Imperial defense of middle and upper Burma becomes difficult to impossible. Yes, many of those units might simply plug up access to China, but can you really stop that? Even if you come straight across the jungle for the road into China, they can do the same thing before you get there, yes?

[BBfanboy]

What witpqs says makes good sense [and he has waaaay more experience than I do].
I officially vote against my initial suggestion!

[SBD]

Ya, you're being way too optimistic about getting supplies into China. An advance towards Lashio, while obviously useful, might actually cause a short term decrease in supplies to China, as you divert C-47s from "flying the hump" to flying supplies to your troops in the Burmese jungle.

To succeed you're going to have to pretty much clear out all of Burma, secure Rangoon, & clear out the road from Lashio into China (Paoshan etc.) Very worthwhile to get the Chinese back into the game but quite a big project.

[JocMeister]

Yes was witpqs says does make excellent sense! Thank you! [:)]

Rangoon it is then. The next question will be how? I think taking Ramree Island is a must. I may even be able to ship in some supply there once its under Allied control. I have some 300 expendable xAKs I can use. And after that Prome and Rangoon.

The question is if I should divide my forces and send some down the "option two" route (Shwebo-Rangoon) too. Erik has some massive forces at Katha and Shwebo. I think I need to try and lock them there or he will just rail everything down to Prome/Rangoon. The good news is that Erik must be aware of the danger from the Chinese army. So he have to remain very strong in eastern/northern Burma. Sending perhaps just 2000-3000 AV to threaten Katha/Shwebo will perhaps prevent him giving too much aid to Rangoon?

I will bring in total:
2 OZ divisions
2 Brit
4 US divisions
1 East African
2 (the 800 squad ones) Chinese and one small.
4 Indian (possible 5 depending on PPs) upgraded divisions.
3 divisions worth of Bdes.
3 Armored bdes.

Somewhere close to 20 divisions in total. Around 9-10K worth of AV. I also have another 2 unrestricted US divisions arriving shortly that may go to India. Still undecided. Is this doable or am I doing something stupid again? [:D]

What are the chances of successfully retaking Burma at this stage? I have just taken for granted that this would be successful but perhaps I´m being too confident? I don´t know much of the Japanese OOB. What can I expect in terms of opposition? I have about 5 confirmed Jap division in the area. Recon indicates somewhere closed to 400.000 men in Burma.

[JocMeister]

Hi SBD and welcome! [:)]

Thank you for you input. I certainly agree with you. I scrapped the idea of trying to connect with the Chinese after reading what witpqs wrote and sleeping over it.

[JocMeister]

June 13th 1943

And all of the sudden this pops up! I wonder what he is up too? I think he is itching to try and get within range of Koumac and plaster my AF there with 300 4Es sitting on the ground.

If the number of AC reported are accurate he is no threat to any base in the region though. All bases have some 100 Fighters with strike AC on Efafe and on Luganville. Also have about 100 Mitchells trained in naval bombing at Koumac.

I think he is just testing my airsearch or he want me to see them for whatever reason....Will find out in the morning!

[ny59giants]

When it comes to Burma, you need to look at it from a logistical point of view. What can you do and support logistically?? What can you do to make the Japanese player's life difficult from a logistical point?? Supplies are the key and then getting your troops into the central plain to push him or force him south.

[JocMeister]

Micheal, Thats what I´m not sure about. I know I can sustain operations around Katha without supply problems. Question is if I can do that same if I get a little deeper with 5-8k AV?
I´m really starting to lean towards splitting my forces in two. One to lock down Katha and one to threaten Rangoon. Hopefully I can get supply via Ramree Island? If I can cut off Rangoon from the North of Burma his supply is going to get critical I think?

Is this doable and is it stupid to spit my forces? I don´t have a clue what kind of firepower he has in place. I know of 4 to 5 divisions and a Tank division. I´ll try loading the intel into intel monkey to see more exactly. I´m just going by memory. The tank division is a paper tiger I think. He is used to fighting the chinese. Not forces with real AT capabilities. All Indian units are upgraded now as are the OZ and US. Brit divisions are waiting for more squads.

In the SOPAC things are still. His CVs remain in place. Very weird. Anyone have any ideas what he could be doing?

[ny59giants]

I don't think he has jumped ahead 13 months with the D4Y3 Judy. What probably happened is he is keeping a few of his 'accelerated' CVs airgroups intact. Its a lot easier to accelerate your CVs to get them in 43 and thus have the air groups that normally would be available in 8/44. Going from a Service Rating (SR) of 3 down to 1 is a good thing.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I don't think he has jumped ahead 13 months with the D4Y3 Judy. What probably happened is he is keeping a few of his 'accelerated' CVs airgroups intact. Its a lot easier to accelerate your CVs to get them in 43 and thus have the air groups that normally would be available in 8/44. Going from a Service Rating (SR) of 3 down to 1 is a good thing.

Ah, I hope that is it! But then again that would mean some of his carriers due in 44 are now online? [:(]