Rise of the Sheep! JocMeister(A) vs. Obvert(J)

[JocMeister]

I´ve changed the title of the AAR in order to reflect that this AAR get updated quite frequently. We are now in January 45


So, my estemeed opponent obvert and I just had a major carrier clash outside Suva.

This is just a short summery from the allied perspective. The reason for doing this mini AAR is twofold. First I need help assesing the battle, and foremost the damage inflicted. I also want to put it down in writing so obvert and I can compare notes in the future [:)] His AAR is titled Wild Sheeps chase and can be found in this forum if anyone wants to check both sides!

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Background:

About 2 months ago I tried to sneak in a small Seebee unit guarded by a defense battalion on a small dot island called Anatom outside Nomuea. This was unfortunanly quickly picked up by recon.

The Plan:
Up till now obvert had been very agressive with KB. Raiding eastern OZ with the KB and western OZ with MKB. I tried to connect with parts of the KB earlier when it was travelling deep in the SoPac and failed for unknow reasons.

I knew he was going to try and take Anatom back. My main goal was simply to try and force a carrier battle on my own terms within LBA range. He didn´t counter land immediately and I soon got intel he was preping atleast a 3rd of a division for the task.

I know many people like to hunker down with their CVs and "save them" until complete carrier supremacy can be achieved. We all know that this far from what the USN did. Obverts agressive use of the KB was making it extremly hard for me to do anything in the SoPac area. I really felt that given the right circumstances I could do alot of damage to the KB and thus making it harder for him to dominate the SoPac area. Anatom gave me a good chance to do just that.

The buildup
Obviously I need my CVs for any kind of intervention so about 50 days ago I sent them home to the WC to upgrade and train the airgroups.

I already had a good amount of army fighters at Suva. They are flying the P39 but have done very well against earlier attempts to Sweep Suva by the KB. All pilots are above 70 in EXP. A formidable force to be used in a LRCAP role over the CVs. Theese were reinforced with about 100 USMC fighters and almost 100 DBs.

I also started gathering all the 2Es I could find and stared training them in naval bombing. I managed to amass about 80 of them. I needed them for the range. Anything to tip the balance in my favour.

The 4Es. As these are useless against the KB the best I could hope for was to delay the fight on Anatom. With luck I could force him to use parts of the KB to LRCAP Anatom.

Situation map the day before the battle below.

[JocMeister]

The Battle

Even the best of plans fall apart as soon as battle is joined. There were nothing organized or military about the battle. It was mayhem and it was ruled by the weather.

I don´t know if the weather was a blessing or a curse. I had thunderstorms over my CV TFs which was a blessing. On the other hand Suva also did. Suva was the major focus of my plan. It was supposed to be the unsinkable carrier stacked with 2E supporting the strike aswell as providing a LRCAP of almost 300 fighters over my TFs. That didn´t work...

As it turns out only a few P39s (4 out out of 200) show up over my CVs and makes little difference in the outcome. This is the major strike by the KB.

BB North Carolina, Bomb hits 1
CV Enterprise, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Yorktown, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Quincy, Torpedo hits 1
CV Wasp, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CV Hornet, Bomb hits 1
CLAA Atlanta
DD Mugford
CA Vincennes
DD Henley
BB Washington

Just before the strike I got several message about my B25 not being able to "link up" or some sort. As can be seen in the picture below the Hornet TF for some reason didn´t manage to keep up with the rest of the TFs. Again, blessing or a curse?

My first strike go in and hit the MKB lingering just south of the KB. Not happy about that obviously.

Japanese Ships
CV Junyo, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CVL Zuiho
CVL Ryujo, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CV Kaga
CVE Hosho, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
CV Akagi
CV Hiyo

At this time I feel like an idiot that just gambled away everything on a silly plan. Luckely there was one more strike left. This is the one I´m not sure about. Either it saved the day or made the fiasco complete...

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Efate at 124,154

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 79 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 31



Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 53
SBD-3 Dauntless x 102
TBF-1 Avenger x 12


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 5 destroyed
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed by flak
SBD-3 Dauntless: 13 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 destroyed by flak
TBF-1 Avenger: 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
CV Soryu, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 6, on fire, heavy damage
CA Tone, Bomb hits 6, on fire, heavy damage
CV Zuikaku, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires
DD Kawakaze
DD Makigumo
BB Kirishima, Bomb hits 1
DD Shigure
CA Chikuma, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Sagiri
DD Yugumo

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Zuikaku
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Shokaku
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Soryu
Fuel storage explosion on CV Soryu
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CA Tone


The idea to complement the strikes with 2Es proved almost a complete fiasco since only about 15 planes of the 80 actually flew. But atleast a happy ending to that...

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 20



Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 9


No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

After that my avengers decided it was time to fly in broken up packages without any kind of escort. I get two hits, both duds and a lot of dead Avengers. They were almost completly wiped out.

Now the lovely game engine decides to give me a nice kick in the scrotum and diverts most of the surviving DBs to Anatom instead of Nadi. Nadi was closer and had clear weather. 90 planes and pilots are lost in the following attack on Anatom when obvert captures the base the same turn. [:(]

The engine will come back and haunt me the next day costing me a carrier.

[Dan Nichols]

Well, if you were able to trade about even in CVs, you have won. The problem with the diverted aircraft is that they went to the closes airfield from the battle, not your CVs. It will be interesting to see what the final outcome will be.

[JocMeister]

Aftermath and the reason for this mini AAR!

Did I just make a fool out of myself? My initial reaction was that I suffered a major defeat. I lost the Wasp outright and Enterprise go down the following day when my CAP again fails to fly. This time in clear weather. Good moral, low fatigue and the best leaders there is.

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 37
B5N2 Kate x 50



Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 4 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 3 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
CV Enterprise, Bomb hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
BB North Carolina, Bomb hits 1
CA Quincy, Bomb hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
CLAA Atlanta, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD McCalla
DD Patterson, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
DD Craven, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DD Cushing, Bomb hits 1, on fire

Ent goes down like a rock while more then 200 fighters decide they have better things to do then protect a badly damaged CV...

Atleast I get a little bit revenge

Submarine attack near Efate at 124,154

Japanese Ships
CV Shokaku, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Gato


My inital thoughts beyond that was that he managed to save all his carriers. Yes they were on fire and listed as heavy damage. This is my first PBEM and I have zero experience with these things. But looking again at the combat report and the replay I´m not so sure anymore:

CV Soryu, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 6, on fire, heavy damage
CA Tone, Bomb hits 6, on fire, heavy damage
CV Zuikaku, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires
DD Kawakaze
DD Makigumo
BB Kirishima, Bomb hits 1
DD Shigure
CA Chikuma, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Sagiri
DD Yugumo

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Zuikaku
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Shokaku
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Soryu
Fuel storage explosion on CV Soryu
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CA Tone

To you more experienced player out there I have a simple question: How badly damaged are his carriers? Worst case scenario is that all of them managed to get home safely. In that case what kind of yard time are we looking at? Two months? A year?

Shokaku is probably in a world of hurt if manages to get to safty.

There are some things that have started to make me wonder if he either suffered very badly or got away relativly free. I have about 10 subs hunting around the waters but non have connected to anything besides Shokaku in the last two turns. The game have now progressed 2 more turns. He has retired faster then what my subs can keep up with. I don´t think he would leave his cripples behind.

So what is it? Did he get away in relativly good shape or is there a chance his CVs actually sank? This is the million dollar question for me right now. Because if the sank or will be gone for a long time in the yard I actually have carrier supremacy right now. In late 42! [X(]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Dan Nichols

Well, if you were able to trade about even in CVs, you have won. The problem with the diverted aircraft is that they went to the closes airfield from the battle, not your CVs. It will be interesting to see what the final outcome will be.

Ah, that explains it! [:(]

[ny59giants]

CVs Hiryu, Soryu, and Wasp are considered heavy CVs, but are a lot more fragile when they get hit than say Akagi or Lexington which were built as Battle Cruisers. I count an Ammo or Fuel Explosion as two torpedo hits.

Any Japanese ship with "heavy damage" is at risk of sinking do to poor damage control. They are far enough away from a port not to make it if they are in such bad shape. Vector subs to Luganville and/or Noumea to see if they can get luck and finish off any cripples.

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

So what is it? Did he get away in relativly good shape or is there a chance his CVs actually sank? This is the million dollar question for me right now. Because if the sank or will be gone for a long time in the yard I actually have carrier supremacy right now. In late 42! [X(]

From my limited experience, any carrier on fire with heavy damage is done. If they are still floating how would those TF's be able to out run your subs? If they sank then the remaining TF escorts would likely be able to do that. I haven't looked at obvert's AAR on this game, so I'm only expressing my educated guess. But then, what do Army guys know about carrier warfare!?

[Dan Nichols]

For an answer Jocke, I believe that Soryu is down( Fuel storage explosion ). Shokaku is down( 6 bombs, heavy damage, then a torpedo). Zuikaku is probably either down or soon will( heavy fires can easily escalate on an IJN ship ).

[Miller]

Heavy fires = death to any Jap ship, even if it is only a few hexes from port.

[PaxMondo]

Yeah, a lot of dead IJN CV's here.  They can only take 2 - 3 1000lb bombs, and then they become fish hotels pretty fast.  IJN damage control is attrocious.  Fires kill them faster than torps do.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Yeah, a lot of dead IJN CV's here.  They can only take 2 - 3 1000lb bombs, and then they become fish hotels pretty fast.  IJN damage control is attrocious.  Fires kill them faster than torps do.

My rule of thumb (I've got big thumbs) is:

"Heavy fires, heavy damage"= toast
"Fires, heavy damage"= small chance

Reading these results I'm left wondering if this carnage was worth it for any possible strategic advanatge, for either of you? What an odd place to fight Midway.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Yeah, a lot of dead IJN CV's here.  They can only take 2 - 3 1000lb bombs, and then they become fish hotels pretty fast.  IJN damage control is attrocious.  Fires kill them faster than torps do.

My rule of thumb (I've got big thumbs) is:

"Heavy fires, heavy damage"= toast
"Fires, heavy damage"= small chance

Reading these results I'm left wondering if this carnage was worth it for any possible strategic advanatge, for either of you? What an odd place to fight Midway.

You are far more eloquent than I.

[&o][&o][&o]

big thumbs rule!! [;)]

[JocMeister]

Thank you everyone for the help! [:)]

That is good news indeed. As I know nothing of theese things I feared he might get away in relativly good shape. If I took out Soryu, Shokaku and Zuikaku that is good news indeed! [:)]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Reading these results I'm left wondering if this carnage was worth it for any possible strategic advanatge, for either of you? What an odd place to fight Midway.

Well, for me its absolutly worth it. My main goal was to damage to KB to the extent that he couldn´t dominate me in the SoPac. Something he had done since early 42. Basing the KB in Tulagi made life very hard for me. That threat is now partially removed. If he want to intervene he will have to do it on about even terms from now on. Something I don´t think he will chance this far into the SoPac again. I have everything prepped and ready to go and invasions will start shortly.
The remaining CVs he has will probably be very precious and I think he will be very carefull of them. Another exchange like this he will have massive problems in the coming years. I on the other hand get a steady reinforcement of CVs! [:)]

I´m pretty sure Erik is kicking himself a little though. Had it been Tulagi he might have felt it was a neccecary risk. Anatom probably not so!

Loosing the 70 DBs on Anatom sucks though. I´ve had to downgrade alot landbased groups to SBD-2 and 1s. I will have 3 carriers operational with full airgroups in about a week. All the remaining veterans I have left. This will be augmented with the 4 CVEs. Their role will be to provide CAP for landings freeing the 3 CVs for other duties.

[KenchiSulla]

You were flying your army fighters at extreme range. That made that part of your plan ineffective. Coordinating land and navy is quite hard..

[JocMeister]

Well, I think the thunderstorms over both Suva and the TF they were set to LRCAP would have more to do with it then navy/army miscommunication?

I have been very succesfull LRCAPing TFs with army fighters before!

[JocMeister]

So, time for a big update and a plea for help!

After things settled down we had a second CV battle in which Erik managed to get a 7 hex strike in. Not the best news for me obviously and I find myself now without much of a Navy for 12-18 months... I´m not going to put the details down since I´m trying very hard to forget it ever happend! [:D]

After the initial SCLS had settled I now have spent two days trying to find some options on what to do in 43. I actually offered Erik my surrender as I feel we might be in for a 9-12 month real life snorefest where he sits and wait for me to come to him and I sit and wait for stuff to do stuff with. He thinks we could still have a fun 43 but I´m not so sure. I´m even less sure after spending two days looking at the map. But I owe it to him to atleast try and find some motivation and get something going.

So here is the situation front by front:

China:
Ceasefire in effect. No supply whatsover so I´m not going to break it.

India/Burma

Erik mentioned he thinks my "growing army and airforce" can do something here. I strongly disagree but perhaps I´m wrong?

Here is the situation:



Air

On first glance it might look like I´m in a pretty good situation here but I´m not. 175 of thoose fighters are the craptastic P40. 75 of the K variant and 100 of the E one. I have learned to hate this airframe with a passion. I have about 80 E´s left in the pool and I´m going to save them for dying on escort duty. I had some hopes for the K variant and they do alright on CAP but even stuffed with some very high EXP pilot the suffer about 1-10 losses on offensive missions against the Tojo.

I have 50 P38s here and they did very well early on until the Tojo arrived. They still come out on top with about 1.5 in KDR but thats not sustainable with only 20 per month arriving and only 40 of varying variants in the pool.

The british are stuck on CAP since pools are really low with about 40 B´s and C´s left. They do quite good on CAP but suffer on the offensive.

My bombers have worked wonders when used. Especially the Marauders and I have a good pool of both them and the Blenheims/wellingtons. What I lack is targets. The oil in Magwe is pretty much bombed out and down to 26. There is no way I can close down 5 big airfields at once and I can´t really catch his fighters on the ground. So I´m out of ideas on what to do with them.

At the moment I have had to withdraw my airforce to Bombay since I could not sustain the losses his 100+ Tojo sweeps were causing. Even on defensive I get only about .5 in KDR. Pilots ARE good in the K squadrons with an avrage of 65Exp 70 air and 60 DEF. Still no luck. I have deliberatly stuffed the E squadrons with fresh pilots 50/70/60.

The only good news is my Army pilot pool. I have about 1000(!) trained fighter pilots in the pool. 800 of thoose are 50/70/50 pilots and almost 200 are very high EXP pilots with 70+ EXP. I don´t want to waste thoose in the crappy P40 and are going to save them for better airframes.

The british fighterpool is low on numbers (150) and as mentioned before I´m really short on airframes.

Erik as opted for the Tojo and is producing this is large quantaties. We have had some big airbattles with 100+ airframes lost in a day but he quickly returns. Since I withdrew to Bombay it has been quiet.


Land

I´m strong enough in India that he certainly have no chance to do anything here. I probably could do some damage in Northern Burma. I have about 4000 unrestriced AV in place but I fear supply would ruin any adventure here. In the monsoons I really struggled to get enought supply to Kalemyo so I fear getting any supply to Katha/Myityina would be even harder. I don´t think there is any chance of getting to Rangoon and even if I did he could probably close the sealanes without much effort.

As I see it I can´t really do much here atm. "My growing airforce" is non existant since nothing happens in 43 until July when I start to get both a better number of fighters including the Thunderbolt!

Am I being pesimistic here? Can something be achived?

[JocMeister]

SoPac/Pac

No need to post a map here I think. I have a fortress in Suva and the line island except Baker. All else is in Jap hands. I don´t think he could take Suva even if he tried with everything he has available. 4000 AV, level 7 forts, 600.000 supply and 200 Fighters would make it a formidable obsticle. I´m 99% sure he won´t go there since he has no reason to do so whatsoever.

I have a small hold in Tanna in the New Hebrides. Thats where I lost my Navy. So that small hold is going to get wiped out pretty soon and I´m stuck back on Suva.

I don´t think I will be able to do anything here for atleast 12-18 months. I can perhaps do small invasions of dot islands now and then in the Sopac but I don´t think it will be much use since he can easily either starve whatever troops I get ashore or counterinvade. KB is based at Tulagi so that gives me only one day to get in and then get out.

I had high hopes of starting to attrit him here but to do that I need to get closer which I really can´t anymore.

I might be able to do some invasions in the Centpac. Mainly Baker/Canton for starters but he is still only 2 days away with the KB and can easily grab thoose back or isolate them. Anything into the Marshalls or Gilberts I think will be impossible without Carrier protection?

Northen OZ




Situation is pretty clear I think. Not much have happend here latly. He tried to grab Perth about 6 months back but was a bit too slow and I managed to get 3 divisions into place. I probably could retake Carnavon by land but I hesitate to. First off I don´t really need it. He has about 18.000 troops there and I rather have them there then anyplace else. The rest of the northen bases I can´t do anything about.

I have been thinking of trying to retake Darwin but I fear the supply situation. If I manged to take it back it would have to be supplied by land/air. Not sure thats doable? I think he has a divison here. I could probably free up about 4 division for the task but again...supply?

NoPac



I have forces prepped for Dutch Harbour and Cold bay. At the moment this is a backwater. He probably wouldn´t move the KB up here but he can probably get alot of aircraft up here in really short time from the HI. So this again would be sort of a "hit and run" action since I can´t protect the invasion.


So, thats basically the situation.

Am I too pesimistic about a 43 without a navy to speak of?

There are some positive things:
This is scenario 1 so he doesn´t have unlimited resources like the scenario 2.
I have unlimited supply/fuel! [:D]
I have a good pool of navy fighters.
I have a exellent pool of army pilots.
I have not suffered any significant losses in transports.
I have some fantastic P39(!) squadrons in the Sopac area. 80+ EXP.
My landforces is in exellent shape and nearly unused. They are upgraded and ready to go.


As I said in my first post I have to try and find some motivation from somewhere. The prospect of doing absolutly nothing for another year is probably the real motivation killer. I fear we will end up in a situation where Erik won´t do anything simply because he doesn´t need to. He has reached the end of his offensive time. He can take some islands at will for sure but nothing that would gain him something. India and Oz are 100% secure of that I´m certain. He can try for Suva but he has absolutly no reason to do that. It would only cost him needlessly. I´m fairly certain he wouldn´t succeed anyway.

I on the other hand want to do stuff but lack the assets to do it. As I see it I might be able to start again in the Sopac/centpac area in late 43/early 44. I then should have sufficiant carriers online again to sustain and protect a landing.

In Burma I might get started a little bit earlier when I really get a good bump in airframe production in July when I start getting about 150 armyfighters per month of which 56 is P-47s.

I do start getting alot of navy fighters in April with the Hellcat coming online. I won´t have any operational carriers except the Essex by then so I can devote them to other duties. But using them against the Tojos in Burma "feels" wrong and also probably isn´t a very good idea looking at the stats.


Can I do anything to prevent this game to turn into "click end turn until christmas"? I might be too pesimistic here and there are some good opportunities that I´m missing? Any help or suggestions would be very welcome. Erik is a fantastic player and alot better then me. I´m too sloppy and impulsive. So I really need some help here.

[ny59giants]

Joc,

I posted some of my concerns about your use of CVs and not bombing his two bases on New Caledonia with 4e bombers on Obvert's AAR. We can review those later when you have more CVs. [:D]

India/Burma - Before we installed the three Pwhex files to impose stacking limits, my Allied opponent was in a similar situation. I was all the way up to Dacca, but he was able to come back and push me out of Chittagong by using two large stacks with massive number of AA units in them. Anything below 10k was getting killed in huge numbers. You can do the same. The Japanese Tank Divisions got mauled by the Allied armor. [:(] You need to move two Command HQs down to Imphal and Cox's Bazar/Akyab and prep them for a base in Burma. They add 90% to your adjusted AV strength. The Allies have plenty of Command HQs to be used this way vs Japan. Next, you will need to focus on building up bases. I would suggest that at least 6 to 8 SB (SeaBees) be sent to India. You should be getting those large USN Naval Construction Rgt (54 Engineers and 24 Engineer Vehicles = 174 Engineers). They will be important everywhere while you get ready for the big push later. 3 to 4 of these need to go to India, IMO. Expand those bases to max and that includes forts after the AF are maxed out to draw in more supply. Swebo would be high on my list and my armor would head there with lots of AA. He cannot stop you in open terrain.

Australia - The key to getting to Darwin overland is by building up Tennant Creeks AF and then forts to get a larger pull of supplies. again, building up bases is the key and those SB and Naval construction Rgt are very helpful. AA and Aussie armor are to lead the way with some of those Cav Bde. Alice spring should be maxed out and another Command HQ placed there to pull in another 25k in supply.

No Pacific - You have some dot bases near Kodiak that can be built up to size 7 AF. Start with some push back here, if nothing else, it will give you a cushion around Kodiak.

CVE/CVLs - they are not heavy CVs, but you may need to use them mainly as floating fighter bases to cover 'quick' invasions. Small lightly held bases can be invaded using massive numbers of transports to have them unload in a day and be gone. Read Alfred's posting on Cribtop's AAR about invading atolls. Add in your APDs, I hope you still have.

B-17/24 - you got to use them in mass. I would have closed down Koumac from Australia and Noumea from Suva before going for Tanna. The second generation B-24s come out in numbers in 2/43. They can hit and run a large number of bases that are important to him, if you use them in large numbers.

Time for the Army to carry the ball until the Navy can rebuild. Chin up!! [:D]

[Historiker]

My bombers have worked wonders when used. Especially the Marauders and I have a good pool of both them and the Blenheims/wellingtons. What I lack is targets. The oil in Magwe is pretty much bombed out and down to 26. There is no way I can close down 5 big airfields at once and I can´t really catch his fighters on the ground. So I´m out of ideas on what to do with them.

That sounds like it is timblerigger time! You hit another airfield each day, but sometimes two in a row. When you include the 4Es, you should be able to trash the airfields faster then he can repair them, don't forget how weak Japanese engineering is!
Take the initiative!

[Historiker]

Situation is pretty clear I think. Not much have happend here latly. He tried to grab Perth about 6 months back but was a bit too slow and I managed to get 3 divisions into place. I probably could retake Carnavon by land but I hesitate to. First off I don´t really need it. He has about 18.000 troops there and I rather have them there then anyplace else. The rest of the northen bases I can´t do anything about.

I have been thinking of trying to retake Darwin but I fear the supply situation. If I manged to take it back it would have to be supplied by land/air. Not sure thats doable? I think he has a divison here. I could probably free up about 4 division for the task but again...supply?

If you have enough to prevent a counterlanding in your back, why don't you circle around Australia? The bases are quite close to each other and you can do most of your invasions without any CV cover. That is what you should seek now. "Where can I hit him without CVs?"

That should leave plenty of options, from W Asutralia to Port Moresby, from the Aleutians to Burma. All you have to know where the KB is. If it ventueres somewhere, your prepared invasion forces start and use the time he takes to move the KB. If he does, the next invasion happens on another part of the map.
So he'll either have to react with limited effectiveness on you, or he divides his carriers to defend everywhere. In this case, you've hit the Jackpot!