Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland

[Tom Hunter]

Saper222 has pulled his armor out of the encirclement and replaced it with infantry. I’ve lost track of the armor, though I think its in transit this turn and have a pretty good guess where it is going. The cut off troops are getting beachhead supply, but at about 3%, I am working on getting more air support into the area. I doubt I can rescue the troops before they die, but I can make the battle drag on for a bit. I’m still deciding if I want to do this, it may be bad for me to keep important troops up North while Saper222 moves the panzers somewhere else. I think he is trying to move Fins into the area and put them on defense between me and the pocket. Regardless Leningrad is fast becoming a sideshow for both of us.

[Tom Hunter]

As you can see from my comments on the map, I think Saper222 was hoping to pocket the Red Army at Moscow, which would certainly have ended any chance I might have of winning the game. I’ve already pulled most of the factories out of Moscow, certainly everything really important is gone. So I ran. I’ve got to keep my loss rate down and build an army, so away we go. Saper222 can punch and empty bag.

Its still very early in the game, and the Red Army has very limited capabilities. Staying in contact makes no sense once Moscow is empty. I have already pulled the factories out of the cities near Moscow, Stalingrad is the next big evac.

[Tom Hunter]

In the South I am focused on rebuilding armies and creating new ones. None of my fronts are strong enough to confront Saper, a decision I made back on turn 4 that I think was a good one. I gave up Rostov, but it was mostly empty, and have pulled factories out of other cities and towns on the way. Pretty soon the Southern front will have enough strength to hold a line against the Germans for a turn or two, and then it will be mud. I may be able to keep Stalingrad, but its more important that I keep the armies for a winter counter attack.

Farther South Saper222 broke through in the Crimea T12 and has cut off the army there. He smashed several layers of forts with 3 or 2 divisions in them to do this, more reminders that the Red Army can’t hold the Germans in 1941. The army at Rostov has moved South to intercept this threat and is visible on this map.

Other notes:

T13 factory moves: Tambov 2 arm, 5 GAZ AA MG, and 1 GAZ AA-37 to Krasnokamsk, 2 arm out of Moscow to Ufa, 2 arm out of Rybinks to Izhevsk, 3 arm and 5 Gaz-AA from Yaroslavl to Molotov, 3 arm from South Stalingrad to Davlekanovo. I’ve moved a lot of big and small factories, current arm production is 283 with 84 damaged. Most people write “don’t lose more than 50” but I would find it a lot more helpful to see “try to keep 300” or what ever the number is.

Red army has 4.1 million men, 36000 guns, 2000 tanks and 6300 planes, Germans have 3.3 million men, 33000 guns, 2500 tanks and 2900 planes.

In T12 Saper222 lost 80 planes to my 160, this turn he is back up to nearly 3 to 1, but I think I am beginning to get a grip on the air war.

[Peltonx]

You holding onto Moscow still?

[Tom Hunter]

No, I did not bother to relocate the HQ. Everything else ran, only the low value factories were still in town.

[Tom Hunter]

I’m breaking contact everywhere. T14 my casualties were heavy as Saper222 reduces the pocket near Leningrad and kills most of the army in Crimea that he cut off T13. Outside of pocket destruction there was very little combat, and there will be less on T15.

A pleasant surprise, my beachhead supply worked and a number of stacks in the pocket defeated the attacks on them. This turn there was more supply and fewer units in the pocket so I may be able to draw it out. Mud is their only hope of survival, and that does not happen until T18, so I am pretty sure they are all dead. For some reason the Fins South of the pocket were able to attack, is that a feature or a bug?

Finally Saper222 is making an attempt at another pocket in the North. I doubt he can succeed, but you can see his motorized inf pushing south of the Rybinsk Reservoir, and the army I put in place to block the river crossing, and further North I pulled Rokossovsky's 32nd back to get in his way if he breaks through.

[Tom Hunter]

In the center I broke contact completely after breaking it for the most part in T12. I have dedicated all my rail to moving factories, this turn the complete vehicle factory (10) left Yaroslav. With the loss of Moscow my rail capacity is 60k so I am moving troops up on foot, and minimizing losses in the Fronts. I think its important to move every factory I can, and I want the vehicles for counter offensives later in the war. If I survive 1942 I want to be able to take ground fast, so I am making sacrifices for that now.

I’m also starting to plan the Winter counter offensive. I’ve got 42 Cav divisions on map, 4 are at near 0 TOE, and 3 are under 75% 34 are over 75% many at 100%. I’m also looking at paras, and various other ways to push the advance and supply. My trucks are steady at 201k (91k) I cannot really tell if this is good or not at this stage, any comments?

As the map says I think Saper222 is using the Lenigrad Pnz force to try for another Northern Pocket, and my best guess is the Moscow Pnz are heading South to try for Stalingrad, though I could be wrong about that.

[Bozo_the_Clown]

A pleasant surprise, my beachhead supply worked and a number of stacks in the pocket defeated the attacks on them. This turn there was more supply and fewer units in the pocket so I may be able to draw it out. Mud is their only hope of survival, and that does not happen until T18, so I am pretty sure they are all dead. For some reason the Fins South of the pocket were able to attack, is that a feature or a bug?

He took Leningrad so the Fins are able to attack south of the no attack line. Saper is probably going to surround your troops in the pocket with the Finnish units and then wait until November to kill them. That way they won't come back as replacements. It's one of those cheesy WitE strategies.

[Tom Hunter]

In the South there was no contact this turn, I retreated from Tambov because there was no reason to stay, next turn I will pull back towards Stalingrad as well. Saper222 is 35 hexes from his rail in the South, and I think he is being forced to pause. I am hoping that a strong defense at Stalingrad will allow me to keep the city till mud and through the Winter. Only a few more turns before mud, so it may be possible. That said the Red Army cannot hold the German infantry for long in 1941, so it’s a good thing mud is not far away.

Further South Saper is trying to break out of the Crimea, I have one army facing him on the Kerch, and one facing North towards Rostov.

Right now its imperative that I minimize losses, so I am fighting as little as possible.

[Tom Hunter]

Actually I have never found that strategy to be cheesy the rules just about guarantee it. It's one of the reasons I have started the slide, because I cannot break them out, so I should be leaving the area soon.

[Mehring]

ORIGINAL: Bozo_the_Clown

He took Leningrad so the Fins are able to attack south of the no attack line. Saper is probably going to surround your troops in the pocket with the Finnish units and then wait until November to kill them. That way they won't come back as replacements. It's one of those cheesy WitE strategies.

Indeed. I did suggest giving the Russians a 'surrender' button for all units pocketed before a certain date, if it's too much trouble to work out how many reinforcement units they should really get.

I think this is one of the reason's sapper is so unpopular in some quarters. He did this on me a couple of years back, and it was right to test the game. But to still be doing it so much later does demonstrate a love of winning over respect for the historically plausible.

[Peltonx]

I hate to say it Tom but your toast at this point because of the manpower crunch, even if you hang on you will not beable to start pushing west until late 43 or early 44, most likely summer 44.

[Tom Hunter]

You may be right Pelton, I made some early mistakes that caused knock on effects, for example the Leningrad pocket happened because I did not have the troops to fill a hole that I knew was there. Those troops were lost T2 near Minsk because I did not have a good understanding of how fast Saper222 could move.

Saper222 may be able to pull off an auto victory in 1942 but I am doing what I can to stop him.

As I play the game one of the things I find interesting is the way design decisions cause reinforcing feedback loops. These can be very hard to break, for example Red Army losses in T1 or T2 can weaken the defense in ways that cause more losses later. I'm not sure this is good, because it can make the game very deterministic, and deterministic equals broken in the mind of most players. After all, where is the fun in playing a game when you know what will happen in the end and can't change it?

I'm still playing and thinking about this, but its something I am likely to return to in the discussion around this AAR.

[Callistrid]

Tom Hunter will be hard or mild winter?

[Tom Hunter]

@Callistrid We are playing with the original hard winter.

Saper222 did not push in T15, which I am inclined to think is a mistake. The Red Army is a bit over 4.1 million and Saper could certainly beat it up some more. The only ground attacks were at the Leningrad pocket, where a number of units surrendered as expected, it will be gone next turn.

There was a lot of combat over airbases, I lost 255 planes, Saper222 lost 80. Some fronts are much better than others, I still have 16s and even a few I-15s on the front line, when those units get hit the casualty rate goes high. I've got 15 fighter groups with experience of 70 or higher, and one at 86, when the good stuff is in action the casualty rates are much more favorable.

Saper222 sent a note saying I will need a good winter to win, which I am sure is true. If I was placing bets at the start of the game I would have bet on Saper222, he started with a major edge in experience. That advantage has narrowed a lot, but my losses have been very high and it will be tough to recover. It is very nice of Saper to help me recover by not attacking.

[lastkozak]

In playing this game with the different versions, one can use hindsight, but some forms of hindsight have to be realistic. How realistic is it to continue to conduct Panzer HQ build ups, and Ju52 drops, when the decrease in supplies result in starving the rest of your army of needed supplies. I should think the units with little supply, would have morale problems as the war continues; they would question the competency of their General staff, even if their were reports of deep thrusts by panzers. Further any General would be fearful to drive their spearheads so deep without infantry support.

I do believe the Germans should use hindsight, and attempt other possible strategies for the war, as their were 3 or 4 different suggestions. But I am not sure how realistic it is for Panzers to be driving deep into the south on turn 2, when historically they could not get so far. Many people say the massive Lviv pocket is the only hope for the Germans, but have any of these 'Uber Players' ever thought that maybe the truth is, the Germans could not historically win, if the Soviets use hindsight and follow the original Stavka strategy which was run deep and far away and strike back later. If the German players are allowed to use hindsight then the soviets must also be allowed to use hindsight, but the German players do not want the Soviets to be able to use such until later in the game; assuming the soviets made the same mistakes for the first month of the war.

Turn 1 gives the Germans an advantage that may not be very historical. Turn one is half the amount of time, yet the Germans get full movement; reasonable if one takes into consideration the surprise element. (But there is evidence that Stalin knew of the German intention to invade in April of 1941, further he knew the attack was imminent at 1:00 am on June 22nd, and gave the order to all his troops to stand to). However lets assume the Soviets had absolutely no idea! In this game the Germans get full movement on Turn 1 and all attacks are conducted at half rate. That works out to the German army getting a 1st turn bonus of 4 times the normal movement allowances. The soviets on their first turn are halved in movement. I believe if one of these German bonuses were removed the game would appear a lot more historical, in that the Germans would move only as deep as they did, but have the ability to place Panzer armies where they wish.

I am not sure what resources the game designers used and how they would stand up to scrutiny by Historians. I do believe they have done an exceptional job, but using free game testers sometimes results in bias feedback, versus statistical analysis of the game mechanics. Soviet players tend to argue the Germans are too strong, German players tend to argue the Soviets are too strong. The only way to resolve this is to rely on facts and statistical probabilities to ensure that the game is played and the only factors are the two players strategy and tactics, within the limits of what they could have managed to do.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

As I play the game one of the things I find interesting is the way design decisions cause reinforcing feedback loops. These can be very hard to break, for example Red Army losses in T1 or T2 can weaken the defense in ways that cause more losses later. I'm not sure this is good, because it can make the game very deterministic, and deterministic equals broken in the mind of most players. After all, where is the fun in playing a game when you know what will happen in the end and can't change it?

You are right here, there is a 'rich get richer' aspect to key parts of this game and the logistic system (even before the cheese fest of some players) is too liberal to act as a restraint. So at this stage the Germans gain morale (Pelton's morale farming) and you just leach it. Equally those early losses come back as shells and drain your manpower pool - you need a balance between feeding the returnees and allocating replacements to key sectors.

Thats why Sapper managing to recreate the super-Lvov, despite the intent of the last patch, is so devasting - you can't deal with the equivalent of the four border fronts coming back into play.

The winter is a hard coded reversal, but its really the only one.

Late war, the main dynamic is that losses are stacked onto the losing side. So you see massive Soviet attacks, the sort that in reality left their rifle divisions as shells, with limited losses if they win. Then the logistic system is too weak to simulate the reality that they ran out of steam time and time again.

Given some will not be changed before WiTE2, to me, the goal is to find a way to have a game with the logistics toned down. Some is a matter of restraint wrt abuses of the game engine but I also think that setting logistics for both sides at a value under 100 (75 is good if you are playing the AI but a bit brutal in PBEM) starts to create that flow of either side taking a beating but then having a respite that allows a recovery.

[Tom Hunter]

It's an interesting technical question Loki, and I am still early in my efforts to demolish the game [;)] so I have not developed a strong opinion.

One thing that I do not see discussed much that I believe could be changed is the victory conditions. There are a lot of ways to manipulate them, for example vps for capturing units, More VPs the moment you cap a city, and have the number decline over time, which encourages the offensive. VPs for holding cities, for example the cities in the Lvov pocket, if the Soviets got VPs for keeping them then the Germans would have an incentive to take them away, and have a choice between making the pocket or collecting the VPs.

I suggest VP changes because people act on what is measured, you could get a substantial change in play if you simply changed the definition of success. Another example, if attacking generated VPs you would see the Soviets attack all the time, and the Soviet problem would be how to attack all the time without losing Russia, which is pretty close to the actual problem Stalin imposed on Stavka.

[Tom Hunter]

How many of you opened this up expecting to find that Saper222 has surrendered?

There were no ground attacks in Soviet T15, I did do some more or less random bombing which appears to have killed 10 Germans. More Germans were kicked to death by their own horses than killed by the Red Army this turn.

I considered another pullback, because I am sure Saper222 is considering another round of attacks, and I will likely pull back a bit T16.

I’ve started resting armies, and during the mud a lot of the Red Army is going to come off the line. I am looking at Moscow and the South for the winter offensive(s) Moscow for manpower, and the South so I have some VPs to give up.

Soviets have 4.1 million men, 35k arty, 2100 tanks and 6500 planes
Germans have 3.3 million men, 33k arty, 2500 tanks and 2800 planes
Axis Allies have 1.8 million men, 14k arty, 500 tanks and 1100 planes

I’ve got 233 Infantry formations (Div + Brigade) 16 are at 0 Toe, more than 200 are over 50%. My tank brigades are forming, there are tons of them, almost all at below 60% Toe.

Saper222 is very careful about setting up in positions that are vulnerable to counter attack, so I have no guards units yet, and may not for a while. Annoying but not much I can do about that.

I continue to use my rail to move factories out of danger, most recently in the area East of Moscow.

I am posting one map, because very little changed on the fronts.

[M60A3TTS]

His lack of attacks is no real surprise. He is furiously digging in around Moscow and will try and hold the city over the winter.