Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
The ships that can will hot rod away toward Melbourne.

Make sure they are on Full speed. Make sure you don't have any doglegs in the waypoints. Make sure they're not on Coastal routing; in my experience it seems that's a trade-off with speed. (Should be; its shallows.) Make sure you don't mix any slow ships in the TF with the carriers.

If you do all that you should run away in the night phase sufficiently to reach the Oz south coast somewhere.

[Sangeli]

And as far as mistakes go yours is not at all that bad. A few cruisers and destroyers is not that much. You will barely notice.

[obvert]

Do you have a map of the current situation?

[Panjack]

Thanks folks for your insights, your sharing of your knowledge, and your support in my time of need!

I have to rush off and so had to submit the turn. The die is cast...or, more precisely, I'll soon learn if a pseudo-random number with an given seed has my name on it when Q-Ball runs the turn.

[Panjack]

December 29, 1941
-----------------

A bunch of ships are now at Melbourne, safely I hope. One CA got hit by a torpedo near Melbourne and will be out of action for quite a while. No sign of the Japanese CV TF. These ships will likely move elsewhere very soon. I can't assume Melbourne is safe. Lesson learned.

In other news: Manila fell, the first subs have been serviced at the Dutch Harbor sub base, and the Yorktown arrived in San Diego. I won't be sending the Yorktown out on any bold missions.

[Panjack]

Here’s the main action in China now. Numbers refer to the map below.

1: 30,000 Japanese troops, 200 guns, 13 AFV and at least two other units are moving towards this hex, one of which I suspect is a tank unit. In this hex a weak Chinese unit, with only 2000 men, boldly attacked last turn and will bombard this turn, hoping to slow down the advancing Japanese units.

2: If everyone can get there, this hex behind the river will have 30,000 Chinese troops (40k permitted in that hex) with a total of 800 AV (but of course weak Chinese AV). A moderate reserve will be immediately behind it. I’ll be moving more units behind for a still larger reserve but it will take a LONG time for units to arrive. I’ll even be sending units from the area around 4 (below) because the battle at 2 seems the crucial one and not many units are around 2. I just hope the units behind the river can hold out until more reserves come up behind it.

3: 16,000 Japanese troops, 120 guns, 149 AFV.

4: 40,000 Chinese troops (the max permitted) with 1000 AV. This hex is where the battle will occur. Substantial reserves should be able to get behind this hex over time.

5: I guess this is perhaps the most important non-base hex in China for the Chinese. The loss of this road junction means the Chinese army is split in half, with the Eastern half having far too little supply to permit it to do anything. I’ll be moving units to this junction, planning for the worse.

Additionally, near Paotow Q-Ball has moved from bombardment to deliberate attacks. The unit he was previously bombarding folded the first time its soldiers saw Japanese soldiers carrying rifles moving toward them. The Japanese units are now moving into the last mountain hex before the start of the long desert road to Lanchow. A Chinese unit sits defending the hex but I can assume the same thing will happen: a period of bombardment followed by a ground attack that causes the Chinese unit to collapse. The road to Lanchow will then be open.

Although some Japanese units have made contact with Chinese units elsewhere, no evidence exists of any other major offense in China.

[Cribtop]

Did he hit Sydney port again? I wonder if Q-Ball knows how close he came to hitting the jackpot. Sometimes as Japan you have to gamble on all out port attack instead of Nav/Port.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
Did he hit Sydney port again? I wonder if Q-Ball knows how close he came to hitting the jackpot. Sometimes as Japan you have to gamble on all out port attack instead of Nav/Port.

Luckily, he didn't attack in the two days following his Nav/Port attack. I guess Sydney is in the clear for now.

[Bullwinkle58]

Sounds like he took pity on you and didn't strat bomb industry either.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Sounds like he took pity on you and didn't strat bomb industry either.

Q-Ball CLAIMS he didn't want to lose any more bombers to AA. But given that he's bent over backwards in our communications to be helpful, I think your interpretation is likely very plausible. [:'(]

Among the helpful things he said about this sad situation at Sydney was that he guessed I had carriers at Sydney because of all the DDs I had performing ASW around the port, information he obviously gleaned from his subs around the port. I don't know if he intended to give anything away, but that information is very helpful and indicates how Japan can get useful information from unthoughtful Allied activities.

I now know I need to be careful, when I have carriers in port, about my "activity signature." Lots of DD around, carrier AC doing search/ASW, or anything else associated with carriers or big ships (say, a huge order of gray paint from Home Depot) a skilled player like Q-Ball will note and draw a conclusion about what ships are where. But knowing how the Japanese player reads these particular tea leaves, the Allied player can consider generating "false tea leaves" when it suits the Allied player. Boy, this game is deep.

I know the skilled players here already know this about tea leaves and false tea leaves, but incidents like the sad situation at Sydney provides the best teaching moment for beginners like me.

[Encircled]

I read my allied opponent by tea leaves, while clutching a rabbits foot and sacrificing to whatever Deity worked last turn.

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Sounds like he took pity on you and didn't strat bomb industry either.

Q-Ball CLAIMS he didn't want to lose any more bombers to AA. But given that he's bent over backwards in our communications to be helpful, I think your interpretation is likely very plausible. [:'(]

Among the helpful things he said about this sad situation at Sydney was that he guessed I had carriers at Sydney because of all the DDs I had performing ASW around the port, information he obviously gleaned from his subs around the port. I don't know if he intended to give anything away, but that information is very helpful and indicates how Japan can get useful information from unthoughtful Allied activities.

I now know I need to be careful, when I have carriers in port, about my "activity signature." Lots of DD around, carrier AC doing search/ASW, or anything else associated with carriers or big ships (say, a huge order of gray paint from Home Depot) a skilled player like Q-Ball will note and draw a conclusion about what ships are where. But knowing how the Japanese player reads these particular tea leaves, the Allied player can consider generating "false tea leaves" when it suits the Allied player. Boy, this game is deep.

I know the skilled players here already know this about tea leaves and false tea leaves, but incidents like the sad situation at Sydney provides the best teaching moment for beginners like me.

He is right but typically you are going to have ASW assets around major ports. Usually float planes but other ships are not uncommon. It might be because you dont have float planes/Asw assets anywhere else ;]

Yes... When I want to confuse my opponent I sometimes bang the pots and pans... If you have a number of ports with shipping sitting around and also troops with nothing better to do you can load and unload them. This generates sigint that is sometimes picked up by the Japanese. So, if you are planning something out of pearl harbor it doesnt hurt to make noise at Sydney and Columbo, etc. Misdirection and Fog of War are quite a big part of this game.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Encircled
I read my allied opponent by tea leaves, while clutching a rabbits foot and sacrificing to whatever Deity worked last turn.

Truly a helpful suggestion. I will do the same forthwith!

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
He is right but typically you are going to have ASW assets around major ports. Usually float planes but other ships are not uncommon. It might be because you dont have float planes/Asw assets anywhere else ;]

That be it! At this stage of the game I'd happily turn in a CL for a good DD.

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
Yes... When I want to confuse my opponent I sometimes bang the pots and pans... If you have a number of ports with shipping sitting around and also troops with nothing better to do you can load and unload them. This generates sigint that is sometimes picked up by the Japanese. So, if you are planning something out of pearl harbor it doesnt hurt to make noise at Sydney and Columbo, etc....

Filed away for future use. [:)]



[/quote]

[Cribtop]

Panjack, you could augment your aerial nav search with picket ships placed 10ish hexes out from relevant ports as well. They will detect incoming enemy carriers and give a warning. However, IMHO it is gamey to use non-warships (e.g. useless xAKLs) for this purpose. Historically, warships were used for this purpose.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
Panjack, you could augment your aerial nav search with picket ships placed 10ish hexes out from relevant ports as well. They will detect incoming enemy carriers and give a warning. However, IMHO it is gamey to use non-warships (e.g. useless xAKLs) for this purpose. Historically, warships were used for this purpose.

Good idea. The call for volunteers to crew such ships has now gone out. A tactics and strategy manual for this game would run, what, a thousand pages?

[Panjack]

December 31, 1941
-------------------

My only hope at this point is that Q-Ball comes down with a bad case of Repetitive Invasion Injury, and so has to take a break from what he’s doing. Japan just landed on (and will take with no problem) Port Moresby, Lunga, and Tabiteuea. The previous turn he landed on Koepang and Luganville. The full extent of Japan’s expansion is indicated in the map below.

He can move where he wants, when he wants. For instance, the invasion TF that landed at Port Moresby this turn was accompanied by 2BB, 4CA, 3 CL, and 8 DD. I had a small CL group nearby but I could tell Q-Ball’s invasion force was packing some real heat and, so, I had my CLs admire the invasion from a great distance.

The only good news for the Allies this turn is that the SS Sturgeon put a torpedo into a modern Japanese DD and it might have sunk.

[Cribtop]

He can indeed, but KB can't shepherd that many invasions in that many places. You know where KB is, interrupt an invasion where it isn't. Force him to cover those invasions against surface and air threat and he will have to slow down a bit.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

He can indeed, but KB can't shepherd that many invasions in that many places. You know where KB is, interrupt an invasion where it isn't. Force him to cover those invasions against surface and air threat and he will have to slow down a bit.

As urged on my folks here, I have a couple of CL and CA TFs placed to pounce on places Q-Ball might invade. I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

[Panjack]

January 1, 1942
------------------
High point of the day: a submarine-placed mine hit an AO in Rabaul. It ain't much, but I'll take it.

In China, what promises to be a big slugging match has started at 1, but at this point includes only bombardment by Japan. Who knows how long that will go on. A second slugging match will likely occur at 2, where I am gathering my forces. Japanese units advancing up the road paused for a day or so, which gave my units time to move towards 2, which seems like a good place for me to do battle. And now Q-Ball seems to be moving toward 3. The last couple of turns he has sent bombers to hit units at 3 and the unit now between Japanese forces and 3 and units now seem on the march toward 3. Again, 3 seems like a good place for me to do battle. He's also continuing to bombard near Changsha but this seems just an attempt to convince me to keep forces there, instead of my using these forces as reserves or to shore up weak points in China. I'm pulling back some units from the Changsha area and moving them toward 3 and elsewhere further away.

Although only minor skirmishes have occurred so far in China, total supply in China has declined by over 13% over the past 10 days (104,000 --> 90,000). Just feeding men, taking a few replacements, flying occasional bombing and recon missions, and moving LCUs around takes more than what China is able to generate in supply. It's scary to think about what will happen to Chinese supply once serious fighting breaks out.