Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

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Gunnulf
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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

Turn 42 - April '44

More action over France though the action shifts to the skies over Paris and looks like the unescorted Lancasters are dialled back. We still manage to down about 200 4E & 2E bombers, less one sided but acceptable losses. Heavy rain forecast over the channel so not likely we'll see an invasion just yet. I have a stronger hunch where the blow will fall now, but of course he could be (should be) weaving an element of deception in, and there is still time to wait. But I've a mind to replace the Korps commander where we think he is heading. Already a 6 Inf trait but it wouldn't hurt if he were a 7 with good initiative and morale. First we need to pick a new 5 Pz Army commander next turn, then make that switch. Its tempting to throw a couple of forts up behind the coast but I'm not sure there will be time to get them to level 3. Oh for a few more APs...

In other news 5 Fallshirmjager arrives and along with 4 Fallshirmjager we start to plot the invasion of the Isle of Man. The key will be to get the port quickly, but to be honest we've not thought too far past that point yet.



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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

Turn 43 - 22 Apr '44

And its all goes quiet... Air activity almost dries up over France and Germany for the first time in relatively good weather. Maybe we its all over and we won?! We lived through it! The second world war - 1939 to 1944! Finally the Allies see sense but we will offer fairly strict terms. A return of Tanzania and Namibia for starters.

So Bomber command doesn't fly by day or night. 8th & 15th Air force hardly anything, except a few some bombing around Vienna. Otherwise just recce around Rome and a little in France. So its either my above theory about surrender or a pause before the big show.
But then we look a bit closer and actually while its only light rain over the continent then its heavy rain over all of England. The only attacks are coming out of Italy. That maybe makes more sense... The forecast for next week is more of the same so I think we can safely stand down and enjoy the French wine a little longer. Except maybe Jagd 1 in Romania, that seems like a bit too obvious a target thats really not received much attention at all so far...

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

Turn 45 - 6 May 44

Another day, another bombing. Qball has now moved his P51s over France to respond to our Fw190 preditations. Aside from the first 2 weeks his AS fishing trips over Germany produced nothing so was expecting this. Ploetesi is under its 2nd week of attack by 15 AF. Nothing disastrous yet but damage being done. We have a couple of Italian groups in Mostar trying to strip off some of the escorts drop tanks but not sure how big an impact that's having. Probably a valid job for a couple of German units instead.

However the big story is the invasion alert goes to amber as the forecast for next week is clear skies over France for the first time. Still light mud on the ground and the weather could flip back of course but will he risk it? I'm almost certain he is ready, but the railways are in decent shape, and light mud is an unnecessary risk. It's not impossible though, he might weigh this up against an extra month march on Berlin, or the risk that early June is a washout. I don't think so but I've been wrong before....

We are about 98% as ready as we are likely to be. 1ss Pz and 11pz arrive from Russia and 3 PzGn is on route from Italy. Steiner (7-7) takes command of 5 Pz Army which now has its full compliment of 9 Pz & 3 PzGn divisions plus some infantry. That's about as good as it's going to get until II SS Pz Korps gets back from it's Russian adventure. It's now all about whether we guessed right. If we didn't its not a major drama I think. But we'll soon find out!
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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by EwaldvonKleist »

Interesting AAR, thanks.
I dont have WITW, so I have to ask: Is it actually possible to paradrop units on the isle of men in 1944? Quite funny if this is the case.
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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Interesting AAR, thanks.
I dont have WITW, so I have to ask: Is it actually possible to paradrop units on the isle of men in 1944? Quite funny if this is the case.

Its in range of airbases at Cherbourg and some, but not all, the Fallshirmjager divisions retain a parachute capability so technically its possible if you opponent happens to not be bothering with interceptors. I don't think I'll test this in this particular game though but when you get the game let us know how you get on!

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

Turn 47 - 20 May '44 or, as it will be taught for years to come - D-Day!

And the verdict is.... Brittany, and in particular St Malo. 10 divisions land from 5 TFs so clearly he left Italy quite early to get fully prepped and still land ahead of historical. Also all 4 airborne divisions drop. So this is D-Day on steroids and the defenders on the beach don't stand a chance. No Omaha beach moment here. As earlier we had a strong feeling he would go for the soft option and damn the weather to get a few weeks extra marching in. It was also the one region he seemed to completely ignore recon on. That said Brittany is the most difficult one to justify heavily stacking the beaches, and I recently had to strongly consider that he would still go for the short route to Picardy and you'll see when I post the state of the defenses at H-Hour that this was the weakest. I thought on balance it probably the most likely but unfortunately it was the one I could afford least to be wrong about really and so couldn’t justify loading it up with troops at the expense of elsewhere.

Anyway, for the history books here is the state of the defences on this day:

Brittany is held by Dollman, who is still our weakest Army commander. 2 weeks and I might have had the points to replace him but 5 Pz was the priority. He has smashed into LXXXIV Korps which is basically 352 Inf and 84 Inf, the latter which was routed, and 1/346 Regt. Elsewhere there is LXXXVI Corps (rest of 346 Inf, 77 Inf & 272 divs) on the north coast. Actually I thought he might pick this stretch as being away from counterattacks, but I can also see likely he chose St Malo as being in a better position to avoid being bottled up in the peninsula. The south coast is very lightly held by just 91 Airlanding under II Fallshirm Korps which also has responsibility for the port garrisons (bolstered by a regiment from 344 Inf each). Finally of note is Pz Lehr in Rennes, very close to the beaches and 3 PzGn 2 hexes away next to Avranches, both under LXXVI Pz Korps with the rest of the Korps at Caen (2 Pz) and Le Havre (21 Pz) but its the former two i need to consider how to employ first. To be honest given the strength of 14 divisions showing up and steamrolling the beaches there is not a lot I can do in the first turn I think. This is not a precarious landing in the slightest, which is a bit disapointing. I was hoping that at least one landing this game might have a Salerno or Anzio moment but I kinda knew QBall would know how to leave nothing to chance here.

From the screenshot you'll also see the dispositions of the 2 Infantry Korps from 1 Army; VXII around Caen & XXV around Cherbourg. Here the terrain justified a bit more investment in defense in depth with 3 forts behind the beaches at key points. We'll never know if it would have made a difference but probably not against these numbers. You'll see from the graphic the worst defense which generated odds of 1268:1 and only 64 casualties this was a cake walk of the highest order. Even there had been a full division it would have crumbled. I do feel like it’s a shame that the typical beach defense level that’s possible of 2 is the same that can be reached in a couple of weeks of digging. It does feel like more should be possible without 4 Aps which clearly there are not enough of them to cover more than a few key points.


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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

The best performing beach defense is 1/346 Regt's sector which at least extracts a battalion worth of casualties before they are pushed back. Its all relative though. Even my wildest plans for this sector would not have cut it.

You'll see further up the coast in Picardy we at least could justify a regiment in depth, in some cases a parachute regiment. And 2 Pz Korps not too far away. I was planning to bring them closer still on the sign of perfect weather but QBall has jumped the gun a little with rain forecast so likely they would not have moved yet. Part of me is a bit disappointed not to find out if this sector could have contested this a bit better but we'll not know in this game. We already know troops can come ashore against no opposition but I'd like to see a hot landing.

So the question is what next? The interdiction over the landings and to the south is quite intense, but very light to the east. Also the rail network is virtually intact so we can get reserves to the area fairly quickly for the moment at least. I've seen folks in some AARs pre-prepare the line at the neck of Brittany to more easily box in the invasion but for me this seemed a bit unrealistic so disregarded this strategy. We'll see if its possible to do on the fly, but he has picked his landing site well to make this difficult.
I'll try and deny him the ports for a while but again where he has landed makes this difficult to commit to without risking getting cut off quite quickly. The terrain doesn't lend itself to a tight historical bocage scrap, and I suspect we need to play the long game of a relatively fluid series of defensive actions.
I also need to mull over the idea of whether we can gain a little time and distraction from using the Luftwaffe to utilise the relatively tight Gulf of St Malo. That might at best slow supplies by a small fraction though I think.

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by loki100 »

I'd hold the Luftwaffe back - my guess is that as of now he is at max airstrength, let him run that down a bit with losses and damaged planes before you commit your last resource?

all in all its an interesting variant, not quite Brittany (he is relatively to the west) but not Normandy. So he has no immediate big ports but I presume is gambling you'll pull out of the Contentin peninsula if he starts to progress towards Paris?
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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

Yes, he'll have 5 air bases in quick order which nullifies any problems with Brittany being outside spitfire range pretty instantly. But I run the idea through my brain briefly at least before I discount it. There is still time for the bombers to make more of a distance down south.

Regards the spot, I must admit I thought more likely he would hit the north west shore if he came here, but I can see the advantages. Its tough to justify a strong line to stop him expanding west as there isn't much of a defense line and any that try will be cut off. I think I will load up the ports so they hold out a while at least and force him to use a strong force here to reduce them. Otherwise I'll have to fight to his east for a while at least at try for a timetable of withdrawal that keeps us short of the German border before winter at least. Time will tell if thats possible, but I have to try to make his logistics problems greater. That said it seems likely he'll have Brest earlier than historically Cherbourg fell as a parallel. And when he does set up his Mulberries (wait, how do I know about these...?) then they are really not that much further west than Arromanches in the grand scheme of things...

This is what the interdiction looks like. Pretty heavy in the south but not much in Normandy so I can conceivably beat him to the edge of the bocage and hold this for a while. The natural neck of Brittany doesn't seem like much of a plan though, as we'll be in rubbish state by the time we reach that river line then be out in the open pretty much so thats a non-starter really. There is maybe a chance to hold him for a little while before he is really ashore and established in a 3 sided box on the bocage to the north, Mayenne west and Loire south. But not for long without losses and probably only while he is still busy taking the ports. Its a bit of time maybe but its not an enviable position and not one we would usually chose. I don't fancy the chances of the divisions west of the landing getting out so we'll plan to sell them dearly but write them off I think.

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

The response.

Still a few bits and pieces to fiddle with before I send back the turn but here out west is pretty much done. After a bit of a think we decided that any forces west of the beachhead will only be slowing him down marginally more than he will march unimpeded and there is not enough space to fit everybody in the Brest alamo so that corps will be best placed slowing him marginally in the south and at least a few troops will likely get out, or at least have more of a stalling effect. We'll see. That leaves 2 static regiments each to man the Festungs Brest, Lorient and St Nazaire. They will fall of course but at least they start with 6CV and fortification 4 so will take a little resources from him.

LXXVI Pz Korps deploys a brief holding position to the east of the beachhead, mostly to cover Pz Lehr leaving Rennes. We launch the only counterattack of the week with Pz Lehr and 3 PzGn against the 6th Airborne. No hope of success obviously as they have landed in light woods and turns out they have a US Regiment attached. But we felt thats its the correct and in character German thing to do. They hold with very light casualties as predicted, though I did hope we might extract a little more damage. Neither German division had to go far so interdiction wasn't an issue, and no ground attack flew. There is not much else we could do but glad we tried something. But anyway in fact along with the Poles attached to 101 Airborne there are actually nearly 5 airborne divisions along with the 10 infantry divisions in the first wave. I mentioned to Qball and I'll repeat the thoughts here I do still feel its a bit of a missed opportunity that the game mechanics don't do anything to restrict the Allies to always doubling up their first wave divisions, other than a little more time taken to prepare. But did that every really stop anybody? Its the same in some ways as the lack of restrictions on shifting all of 21 AG to the Med for a while. Why not? its free and the rational thing to do. Likewise why take 1 division when you can take 2? Trouble is it really means unless the allies really do something stupid there is no chance of an Omaha moment, and likewise with 2 intact divisions on each beach why would any rational German player even attempt a counter-attack? I would have liked to at least try a little to make a fight of it but tickling this airborne division is about all I can justify trying really, just to do something offensive rather than just be setting up a line 100 miles back. If the prepping of an invasion cost APs or even better VPs to set up, per airborne division dropped and per division landed per TF then the Allies would have to at least think for a minute about whether everything was necessary. And would go a little way to countering invasion spam. Interesting choices make for interesting games, but right now feels like the only thing for the allies is to go as big as they can possible stretch the system and the knock on effect is a lack of counter-attacks on day 1. Anyway, thats my 2p on that one. The follow up forces will arrive on his phase and the moment will have passed obviously.

Elsewhere 1st Army starts to occupy the bocage line to the north, 5 Pz Army starts to occupy the east river line, though this will be temporary I think, and the rump of 7th Army with a few units from the SW start to occupy the Loire line. All temporary but thats all we can do right now I think. Then in reserve 15th Army deploys along the Seine while keeping a static defense on the coast against fresh invasions. Likewise 1 Fallshirm army in the low countries draws down a little but keeps the beaches manned.

All the rest left to do is air stuff, reordering depots states etc...


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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

Turn 48 - 27 May '44

Well, not great news on the western front. By the end of the 1st week ashore the Allies have taken pretty much all of Brittany effectively. In a prestigious feat of arms 1st Airborne division manage to land by night in the German phase on day 1 and by the end of the allied phase have fought a series of running battles against a regiment from 352 div and marched 70 miles to the south coast! Pretty impressive stuff. I had hoped at least that on landing there would be a bit of disruption at least and the advance would be limited to 2 or 3 hexes rather than 7. Seems a bit unrealistic to me and a bit disappointed that they were able to be quite so fresh and fast moving after a night parachute drop that historically scattered the divisions and at best would see them operating in the region of their LZs initially, but thats the hand I now have to deal with so will have to suck it up.
Its been a busy week at work with a couple of trips so only just now getting a chance to have a proper look and decide what to do. Otherwise he has no trouble pushing back 3 PzGn div from the bocage line, and of course there is little hope of saving the 3 infantry divisions caught on the wrong side of the allied paratroops blitzkreig. Maybe we can fly or ship a few out, or perhaps this just means the garrisons in the atlantic ports will be a bit bigger than we planned...

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

First order of business is in Italy though. We run some recce to confirm our thinking and sure enough even the armoured reserves are gone now and the line here really is held by the absolute minimum and he has zero intention of any pretense of offensive action here. So we launch a bulked up XIV Pz Korps of 5 divisions (marshaled last turn) into the fortified position on the north end of the front. 2 attacks are held but with 3,000 allies casualties and the forts drop to zero. We expected to hold on the first week but on the off chance that he is not even looking down here anymore then maybe we might even push them back next week. If not 3VP is a drop in the ocean but better than nothing. I do think allied army and army group commanders should be at risk of being sacked if they don't commit to a certain number of attacks within a certain timeframe. Otherwise the fear of casualties causes these unhistoric stalemates that clearly Churchill would have punished. Sad to say but generals feared ruining there careers by lacking aggressive spirit more than they feared casualties. Its certainly a mechanism that would suit WITE too I think.

Anyway, that little diversion over I need to get back to the serious business of the French campaign. A bit more thought needed there...

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by John B. »

If he does not start to push you back in Italy does he run a risk of losing more VP for not holding Rome?
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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

I think the biggest lost opportunity comes from missing the bonus by not holding Rome before end of '43. I might be wrong but after that its only the lost opportunity is just regular city points per turn, hence the lack of effort to progress. In reality the political pressure to take Rome drove much of the strategic and even tactical decision making (if you count Clarks diversion to take Rome rather than cut off 10th Army as tactical rather than strategic - either way no rational player would be likely to feel pressured to do the same). But here the there does not seem to be a big carrot and stick, and in fact the opposite as weirdly its me incentivised to actually fight. While we are on the subject:

Turn 49 - June 3 '44

He is paying attention in Italy - QBall, I knew you would be really :)
6th Armoured Div comes into the line to help plug the gap, and more recon shows lots more units behind the lines. I am wondering whether they were always there, or they had left to prep for further invasions and this emergency pulled some back? In which case drawing them back and keeping him a bit pinned down(!!) justifies the mini offensive. Although the boss will be upset when we inform him his dreams of overrunning Foggia are fading... Still he has 31CV in level 1 forts in open terrain, with no doubt more ground support than last turn, and probably an armoured brigade in reserve. We can bring 70CV to the fight, not enough to push him back but I think we can do some damage so its tempting. Will do the rest of the turn and come back to this one...

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

Up north this is how the front now looks as we head into June. We have the 3 sided box we wanted established for now, but not likely to want to hold it for long as its hardly an ideal position and he can crack any point he wants. Maybe not while its raining though. In an alternate universe this would be the 2 turns of rain than delayed his plans and the clear weather next turn would signal an invasion. But here he's already half way to Paris. What particularly sucked this turn is because everything in Brittany flipped then 2 regiments and a whole division surrender when they are attacked as they think they can't retreat. This is aweful as there was plenty of real estate for them to retire into in reality.

We did have some good news as QBall has been merrily spraying interdiction everywhere but this turn the luftwaffe acts and its a bit of a turkeyshoot as Focke Wolfes tear into allied fighter bombers and lancasters. The tally overall including the continuing raids on Germany is we lose 134 pilots & 184 fighters (many of these allied pilots/planes over Romania), but the Allies lose 654 pilots, 387 fighter bombers, 23 NFs, 135 level bombers, 29 recon, 67 transports, 28 patrol and 2 TBs. Over France the results are particularly stacked in our favour and we can chalk this up as a victory for sure. Particularly heavy hit are the P40s and P47s with 230 losses between them but plenty of Typhoons too. Hopefully this will tone down the interdiction efforts as he can't afford this every week.

What I now need to ponder over lunch is whether the spread out allied armies here in the open present a target for a few local Panzers to pounce, or do we just wait? Its a bit muddy and some units have lowered CV due to sub-optimal fuel and ammo but at least the allied GS should be less effective too. I'll take a pause to think about the pros and cons...

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

The only counterattack we can really justify trying up in France is against 1 Br Airborne on the north flank which we hit and cause to retreat with 1k casualties. Everything else holds the line for the moment. Further back the Seine is already held by 15th Army with 1 or 2 Infantry regiments from the coast at Le Havre to well south of Paris. Unfortunately no matter how early we start this it will only dig to stage 1 obviously but at least its an established fall back position.
In Brittany we fly out 91 Airlanding Division from Lorient leaving 272 Inf as the garrison. Brest has 2 regiments from 346 Inf and St Nazaire similar. They will fall of course but hopefully it will take a little effort at least.

Back in Italy Hube's Pz Korps decide to continue the attack, another hold but another 3k Allied casualties so a reasonable result in VPs and again will ensure that he can't completely ignore this theatre as stagnant. Its also a useful demonstration that we still have powerful reserves to potentially deter any future landing further up the peninsula I think. I suspect his next move down south will be into southern France if/when it comes.

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

Turn 50 - 10 Jun 44

The allies push across the Mayenne river in two places but our panzers push them back with counterattacks to reform the line. Costly though and not sure we will bother to hold this line much longer. Feels a bit wrong to pull back to the Seine so quickly though. We are well behind the curve here but its impossible to think we can stay here when there are already at least 4 US armoured divisions ashore and signs of plenty of units that traditionally fought in the Med so I think we can expect to be fighting much larger than historical forces much earlier and there isn't a great deal we can do about that. What is missing from the equasion so far is any sign of British armoured divisions. Either that hammer is going to fall soon, or there is another invasion in the pipeline which of course wouldn't surprise us at all. Its no secret that QBall as chosen the shape of the coast for his invasion so that he can operate 6 ports with just 2 TF...

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

Turn 52 - 24 June 44

More skirmishing on the river line and we edge back slowly. QBall is talking about a breakout and I'm inclined to agree its likely soon. Without decent terrain its pretty pointless fighting here for too long, but its still June and I'd really like to be holding Paris still in August if I can help it, otherwise we will be at the German border far too soon.

More importantly he launches 100k men at St Nazaire and it folds like a pack of cards. I had hoped that might stretch to a couple of turn fighting at least but looks like even a 2 to 1 victory triggers an instant surrender. Part of the logic of defending forward a little was maintaining a C2 link to the garrison. Maybe the lesson is not to bother defending these forts which is a shame. Obviously the other 2 ports have troops that weren't necessarily there by design. I doubt he will bother with these though, he has the port he needs for now.

Down in Italy we pause the attacks, we have caused some decent casualties but the CV just went up so I guess they are loaded with attachments. Therein ceases all activity down there until such time as he gets active with his released TFs. I really do feel its a bit of a shame its been such a snooze down there as other games it has continued to be an interesting theatre throughout and feels like a bit of the game is missing to be honest.

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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by loki100 »

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

Turn 52 - 24 June 44

...

More importantly he launches 100k men at St Nazaire and it folds like a pack of cards. I had hoped that might stretch to a couple of turn fighting at least but looks like even a 2 to 1 victory triggers an instant surrender. Part of the logic of defending forward a little was maintaining a C2 link to the garrison. Maybe the lesson is not to bother defending these forts which is a shame. Obviously the other 2 ports have troops that weren't necessarily there by design. I doubt he will bother with these though, he has the port he needs for now.

...

Judging by the artillery he must have moved his TFs offshore for the attack. That is a deadly force multiplier as you end up with massive disruptions even before the actual fighting takes place. Since they only need to be back in place at the end of the turn you can both use them for prep/hold a port open and for this sort of offensive action.

Not sure there is any real defence to it but think it is worth trying to hold onto some of the rear ports. I think this can work in Brittany if the main landings are to the east as it forces a long diversion to bring strong units back here - noticed this the one time I did a Pas de Calais landing.
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RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

Post by Gunnulf »

I'm sure he did, as he used 3 TFs against Palermo but that didn't seem like a killer blow to be honest as that city held out much longer with Italians and lower level forts. The difference seemed to be numbers of defenders I think. Here there was the equivalent of a division. The actual battle of Brest lasted 5+ weeks but that was 3 divisions defending, which can't be accommodated in game. It's quite an ask to put 2 divisions in each of these Atlantic ports to secure them better. But maybe that's what it will take to make a difference and hold out for a reasonable time. I'm going to try it in another game. Maybe not allocating 6 divisions to the task is actually a false economy in the long run if you can tie down 100k allies for a month and constrict his logistics at a critical time? Tricky one and much easier to justify losing Italian divisions. I'm going to try explore this in another game further. But it's too late here obviously. It has to be all ports though or one will get taken and the others ignored.
Another concern is command though as can't fill with enough troops and a corps HQ. In Sicily the relatively more successful defenses might have been helped by the C2 corps link to corps HQ in Trapani and army HQ in the Messina line, both in range. That's impossible to set up in Brittany really.
"Stay low, move fast"
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