Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA)

[Gunnulf]

So, just kicking off a new GC game versus QBall and seeing as didn't look like any AAR going on right now I thought I'd help fill the void. We have a bit of history fighting the civil war a few years ago so I know he's going to be a tough opponent. That time I was was CSA versus the Union juggernaut. I usually play IJN in WITP too, so clearly I have a deep compulsion to be battered by enemies with overwhelming military material advantages. Still, the game is cheaper than therapy.
Anyway, turn 3 is where we stand so far. The short story is QBall opted to launch just 8th Army against Sicily, and hold back the 7th Army. There are plenty of reasons for and against this I'm sure, and while I am more inclined to go all in on Sicily as the Allies in order to win the island fast, I'm sure he can make this work. Otherwise nothing much remarkable in the skies over Germany so far. All my money was on the Yanks dropping the ramps on Sardinia, partly because of the increased naval interdiction already, and partly because where else really? Salerno or Taranto would be a very bullish move, although there was always the chance it might be the tip of the boot.
Anyway, first order of business.
The Luftwaffe - We re-order the Titanic's deckchairs in the Reich to make better sense of the screen. Mostly I am a bit OCD here and like to bring the units of the same JG's closer together so I can get a better feeling from the battle reports who is intercepting from where. Likewise I do the same in the Med, bringing forces together to cover the anticipated land in Sardinia under Flieger IX and to cover the mainland for the future under Luftflotte 2. We also assign the better Italian units to German command for better leadership. Transports go under Luftwaffe italy for now.
The Heer - In the Med we standby for incoming in Sardinia by marginally shifting 90th PzGn. We should probably just lift them straight out, but if the US attack looks weak I might regret this so we delay and make a contingency plan to re-inforce. We can decide next turn.
XIV Pz Corps comes over the straights and takes command of the German units here which regroup around Etna. The British do most of the heavy lifting here and should still succeed but we can hopefully delay the timetable and make him pay a little for underestimating us. 29 PzGn moves to Reggio to either join next turn or cover the flank should the 7th land on the boot and try to cut us off. 16 Pz & 3 PzGn are seconded to Armeegruppe C for now in order to allow command space to take a couple of better Italian units under XIV PzKorps command.
Elsewhere we juggle a few units about in order to meet garrison requirements. 26 Pz is shifted to SW France in order to be closer to the action but not committed yet. Various corps level artillery and AA units are shifted to Armeegruppe C for allocation later. Of course there is the chance that 7th US Army turns up in France I guess... but that would be rather bold. The US did seem keen to land early on the continent before the Churchill steered them towards the underbelly. Could it be they changed their minds...?


No. Next turn the US hit 2 beaches in SW Sardinia. So still one task force in reserve. This is a little surprising and will certainly keep us guessing for a while. Good job 29 PzGn is covering the boot. It would be bold to land just one there maybe, but he could commit several units from 5th Army over this beachhead, or worse commit more units from the UK. My money would be on Corsica soon after Sardinia can provide him air cover, but I can't be sure yet.
The question to ponder right now is whether he is spreading himself too thin? Thats 2 landing areas to cover with Coastal command. He has far superior air power but is it enough to be overwhelming off both islands? Some quick sums suggest there is maybe an opportunity to hit the Sardinia beaches with 500 bombers covered by 200 fighters. And our recce can see at least 6 units in the bay still on transports. A juicy target worth the risk? Meanwhile at the same time I can hit the Sicily beaches with 600 bombers and 300 fighters. As they are isolated a bit its certainly tempting to through a spanner in the works. The longer I can keep those TFs having to help secure supplies, the longer before he can retarget a mainland invasion. I think its safe to suppose he would like sardinia in order to target Rome. Delays to this schedule may seem worth it? Thoughts anybody? It certainly feels like the proper German thing to do. Its the units on transports that really make me want to pull the trigger...

[loki100]

great to see this .. not least as I've agreed a game with QBall in the new year so hope to see all his secret strategies revealed [;)]

edit - are you setting air superiority directives to defend the Reich or simply deploying fighters to airbases and letting the auto-intercept handle it?

[comte]

Always good to see a new AAR [8D]

[Gunnulf]

ORIGINAL: loki100

great to see this .. not least as I've agreed a game with QBall in the new year so hope to see all his secret strategies revealed [;)]

edit - are you setting air superiority directives to defend the Reich or simply deploying fighters to airbases and letting the auto-intercept handle it?

This is a question I am getting to grips with. Usually I stick to auto-intercept. So far the bombers have been quite ellusive, a large 8th AF raid skirted over Denmark to take the Baltic route to hit Danzig. We did intercept this with fairly equal losses. But Bomber command is launching lots of 50 aircraft micro-raids over the Ruhr. The auto-intercept doesnt really seem to handle this very well and his losses seem to be quite light; both to NFs and to flak despite shifting a few Flak regiments onto the Dutch air corridor and into the Ruhr itself. I need to come up with a solution to this strategy for sure, but air superiority doesnt operate at night. Maybe lots of small dispersed NFs airbases everywhere rather than the kind-of 'T' I have set up now with 3 forward and 2 in the Ruhr as goalkeeper? (Screenshot shows current flak and NFs). Probably need 1 group up slight north to guard against a north hook. But honestly so far the problem is the number of small raids coming through the centre that show up as intercept battles but very few result in RAF losses. I strongly suspect he will keep changing tactics and targets though, and I will stay nimble as possible too. Other points on the defense here are that I have moved everything relevant to Luftwaffe Reich and gone early on using 16APs to get Loehr in charge for better morale, initiative, admin & air values (7/8s rather than 5/6s). Hopefully this will help co-ordination and intercepts next turn... Between that and shifting Flak thats pretty much blown the bank on APs so far.

[Helpless]

The auto-intercept doesnt really seem to handle this very well and his losses seem to be quite light;

Smaller raid is harder to detect, so it may react later than needed. Placing them closer might help.

Check "Mission AC pct" for the superiority. That's what is being used for the auto-interception to determine the size of interception.

I need to come up with a solution to this strategy for sure, but air superiority doesnt operate at night.

It is not, but you can try to set some night intruder missions over his landing sites. German navigation won't be as good, but at least it would force WA player not to set his NF to the night escorting only.

[Gunnulf]

I've been working under the theory that the airbase/flak at Amsterdam/Rotterdam/Breda trigger the alarm allowing the NF to get cranked up, but maybe thats not the case. On your 2nd point yes, I will be setting a couple of night intruders to keep him on his toes a bit at least.

[Helpless]

I've been working under the theory that the airbase/flak at Amsterdam/Rotterdam/Breda trigger the alarm allowing the NF to get cranked up

Yes, air bases is what bumping raid detection.

[Gunnulf]

So, Axis turn3:

After much soul searching and deliberation I pulled the trigger on some naval patrols. IX Flieger launched a couple of raids on the fleet off Sardinia, 360 bombers with 100 fighter. Set with a pretty tight stop-loss in case they were a disaster but I decided strong as the Allies are, protecting 2 invasions in mid 43 hundreds of miles apart is going to make things tight somewhere. Lots of logic to holding back the bombers as a 'fleet in being' but also these sorts of opportunities don't always arise and it will only get tougher.
Anyway, screenshot below. Not a disaster, he is not isolated but certainly likely his troops will come off those ship a little rattled at least. We'll see. The Fw190F/G & the Italian Stuka generate a bit of interdiction on the shore for good measure, but nothing serious. No doubt QBalls retribution will be swift and merciless, but at least will force him to slow a bit and not think he can blitz me quite yet... Famous last words! I am sure he will restore control immediately, but at least it keeps him busy.

[Gunnulf]

Over in Sicily 8th Army has fanned out fast like its the breakout from El Alamein. XIV Pz Korps stops them dead in their tracks with a counterattack on 5th Division pushing them back across the Simeto river. Break out the schnaaps, Gunther, then lets throw them back in the sea!!
Another Pz Korps with 16 Pz and 3 PzGn is forming up on the mainland. Bringing them over crosses our minds to cause more mischief. The risk is being trapped by 2 task forces in the straights. However can he spare them without screwing his timetable. He needs probably 2 of the RN TFs to keep the beaches open here, and 1 x USN can be released from Sardinia duty immediately, plus to uncommitted USN TF. But still probably turn 8 or 9 before we need to watch our backs seriously. I need to find the line between bold and reckless...




However the next pressing question for the Heer is back on Sardinia; Fight or Flight? 90 PzGn is in place with the fortress brigade. Its tempting to try to get the brigade to live up to its name by dashing down to Caligiari and hunkering down there for a couple of weeks. Well supplied, level 3 forts. It will be lost but in the grand scheme of things would you miss it? Would you really?
Either 90 PzGn jumps on ships while they still can or, we have 1 Fallshirm & 157 Gebirgs in Genoa and La Spezia ready to ship over. Can 3 divisions make a fight of it in the mountains for a month maybe against 7th US army (less one invasion divsion yet to be launched - expected to be Corsica)

[Gunnulf]

Turn 4 - 24th July '43

First the air war over the Reich.
Not going to lie, its not great. These micro-raids are pretty frustrating. Total of 28 raids on the Ruhr, ranging between 16-50 bombers, usually but not always plenty or equal numbers of night fighters. The luftwaffe puts up nightfighters each time but with paltry results:

By day the 8th Air Force come in size but avoids our screens hitting Danzig and Hannover. I suspect he went further north this time but there is no trace at all of any intercepts on either raid. We need to go back to the drawing board for the day fighters. By night? I suspect there is not much that can be done, I think its a sweet spot in the algorithm that was designed for the historical big raids. Mixed emotions as my grandfather flew 2 tours in 43/44 in pathfinder Lancasters, partly I am happy that none are getting shot down but unfortunately I'm all to aware of the bitter reality of how dangerous that job was. But over 4 weeks our reports say just 22 Lancasters, and 29 Halifax have been lost to NF, flak and presumably accidents. But he's pulling in 10 points from bombing, and only -1Vp from U-boats. Kudos, but not good for me. SO, the question is? Any ideas?

[Helpless]

Looks like your "Mission AC pct" for the air superiority is set to 100 (it sends NF equal to estimated raid size). Try to increase it to 200-300. It should work better for the small strikes.

Small strikes shouldn't cause too much damage, but as you say it is enough to get 1% damage to gain VP.

Btw, are you playing MP (server) game or this is a classical PBEM? Wanted to look at save.

[Gunnulf]

Makes sense, will give that a shot this turn. Many thanks. It's a server game yes.

Also to further complicate matters Spitfires VBs & VCs from Fighter Command are flying air superiority missions directly over Essen. I'd thought they couldn't quite reach yet so another aspect I need to have a think about or we'll be drained of fighters far too fast. I need to be downing bombers in 43, there will be plenty of time to get shredded by Mustangs next year. Luckily to date relatively limited Fighter command incursions this far east.

I think I will be spending a little while fiddling about. I spoke to the long haired CO about fixing a map board to the kitchen table and hiring a couple of girls to push markers around with sticks. No dice, so will have to keep all the planning within the PC. Doesn't she realise whats at stake here!?

[Helpless]

I took a look at the save and even ran another Allied air execution using existing setup just increased Mission AC PCT (I know it is not very clean way of testing it) for the LF Reich.

I was able to shot 13 planes with NF and make 3610 damage points (out of 9148).

Unfortunately important piece of information is available only in allied air execution log - aircraft and flak performance statistics. I'm planning to make it available to both sides. You can ask your opponent to send you a copy.

btw, I found and fixed a bug when naval patrol counter goes negative due to the cancelled manual naval patrol AD.

Edit. Attached perf report from my run.

[Gunnulf]

Interesting, that would be useful feedback for the Axis defender for sure. Its an important part of the fun/frustration for the defender throughout the game. I've shifted some deckchairs around again, some day gruppes are back from rest so will see if we can add a little more hurt next time.

Meanwhile down in the sunshine posting that is Klub-Med:

As expected QBall regains control of the sea around Sardinia. To be honest I didnt contest it, I knew the counter-move would likely be too expensive. However, it is at the expense of Allied cover for Sicily so this turn we will try cause some nuisance here. He is running at least 9 divisions we can see in Sicily, including a US armoured division and the Moroccan mountain corps. Off 3 temporary ports I think thats possible, but only if the ships can get through... 400 bombers and 200 fighters are kranked up and we'll see what these new wonder weapon guided bombs can do!
Also of note is a lack of interdiction from Tactical Command... Its clearly trying to lull me into a false sense of security... Run away!!

[Gunnulf]

And the results are in. 2 strikes flown, total LB losses 180 including the Italian fodder. Production will replace the 100 JU88s in two & a half weeks, and we still have bomber pilots in the pool. He is not isolated but his ships are running the gauntlet of contested seas. Certainly not what any allied commander would want. Again, he will restore order soon enough, its not sustainable for the Axis, but hopefully he is feeling marginally stretched with his ambitious scheme to take both islands at once, and at least for a little while I can dictate where the next attack will come rather than being totally re-active.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 4 - Heer

XIV Pz Korps dishes out its weekly hurt against the north flank of 8th Army and 50th Divsion is sent packing. Clearly Tactical command has gots its hands full over the seas and in Sardinia as no ground support flies for the Allies. I feel we will look back fondly on moments like this in the coming months when the Typhoons are buzzing everywhere... Again we wonder about bringing down 16 Pz and 3 PzGn while the going is good, but again cooler heads prevail. There is still another TF uncommitted, though I still bet on Corsica.
However with 50th Br Div at 3CV, 5 BR Div at 4CV, I am going to take a condor moment and decide whether XIV Pz Korps presses home this attack a bit more... But I think not. Our recce spots 3 allied Armoured divsions on Sicily, and 2 in Sardinia. He's not holding much back and likely has brought more from the UK. I'd say his ORBAT is:

Sicily - 8th Army
Minimum 3 Arm Div, 8 Infantry Div + 1 Bde. Specifically identified 5 Div, 50 Div, 231 Bde, Moroccan Mtn Div, 2 US Arm Div, 7 Arm Div. 4 HQ's seen or suspected. This is definitely 8th Army + significant other elements

Sardinia - 7th Army
Minimum 2 Arm Div, 1 Airborne Div, 10 other units of which at least 2 are HQs. Looks like 1 Armoured div is commonwealth so clearly this is a beefed up 7th US Army, less the detached US div no doubt still sitting in port prepping for an attack, with probably 1 Br Airborne allocated to assist.

Its going to be tough to slow either juggernaut down for sure, unless his supply situation gets tight, but we can't bank on that.




Final thoughts on Sardinia are that, while almostly certainly it will prove to be a disaster we are going to make a stand in the north of the island. The odds don't look good, but the alternative is that he sweeps the island quickly, and he can project airpower to cover his first landing on the mainland in September north of Rome. Strategically trying to save troops will likely cost more in the long run. Maybe.
Either way 90 Pz Gn isn't going anyway with the port damaged so re-inforcing with a few forlorn hope Fallshirhjager regiments and a few forts to buy time seems like a gamble we might have to roll the dice on. If he had left Olbia undamaged I might have pulled out completely and given him his island, but we'll play the cards we have been given for better or worse. I never said this was going to be a textbook example of how to fight did I? My troops follow me out of a morbid sense of curiosity, so in the name of science lets see what happens when we try this...

[Gunnulf]

Turn 5 - 31st July '43

Rain in the Med slows down air ops a little but up in the skies over Germany things are relatively hot. Following some helpful help from Helpless we cranked up Missions to 300%. I remember this now from tips read before, but not implemented it before. Certainly has a positive effect and both night and day start taking down a few more bombers. We are still not going to be awarded ace of the year, but its progress for sure. We also widen the chain of bases a little and a few gruppes are back from switching out the last Fw190 A4 & A5s. However on balance QBall plays the reich campaign pretty textbook and we are pretty much just pissing on an electrical fire. Different targets for 8th AF each turn, no pattern really, and bomber command hitting out with loads of small raids to keep everything at least a little damaged to get the points. We'll keep on trying to get the edge on a raid now and again.

In Sicily the 8th Army echelons left, covering the right flank as they go but not really attacking much. 2 armoured divs are in the vanguard both seem to be at 4CV. Palermo and Trapani are pretty much as well prepared as they can be with at least 2 coastal divs each with AA, armour and extra inf attached. Of course they will fall but maybe will hold a little while, especially with his infantry tied to the flanks. Its just Italian infantry regiments in the centre so he will reach the coast before long. In the east though I suspect it will be us leaving due to risk of outstaying our welcome rather than at the point of bayonet. We launch another couterattack to batter him for VPs again. It was always going to be 50/50 this time as a stack of 50 Br Div with a commando brigade, but not he has found his artillery and finally getting some ground support. He's not going on the offensive either side of Etna anytime soon though. Famous last words. At some point he will hook around the northern coast of course.

Sardinia is close to engagement with the Garibaldi line. I forgot to get a screenshot before ended turn but essentially 90PzGn. with support from the unfrozen Italians and a few Gebirgs and Fallshirm jaeger regiments. Its in good terrain but of course no expectations of holding forever. The longer we can keep Spitfore's from buzzing the Roman foreshore the better. His vanguard armoured division arrives at the outpost but doesnt engage. Its raining so maybe the first blows next week when the main body arrives.

Finally random strategic musing. Whats his next move one step ahead? 1 TF uncommitted which is probably still aimed at Corsica, 2 more probably withdrew early from the islands to prepare for phase 2. I have assumed this was originally above Rome, and quite possibly still is. Its not inconceivable that he will be in a position to support this in Sept or early oct. But hopefully my resistance is giving him at least a mini-doubt. What would plan B be? Given he will want to scare me out of Sicily if thats looking behind schedule then the heel of the boot would be a consideration. This would make more sense if he hadnt already committed 5 Armoured divisions that ideally he'd want to romp across the Foggia plains (planes..?). Also can he sustain naval patrols on both islands and the heel with a degree of confidence? Maybe, maybe not. Landing closer to Reggio maybe makes more sense and this goes high up my list of likely spots. Remind me of this latter when it proves utterly wrong. My deduction skills are not high on the Sherlock scale. No doubt we'll find out in the not too distant future...

[loki100]

great stuff - as an Axis player I really *hate* (ie its a lot of fun) trying to work out what the Allied player will do in Italy.

from your description I wonder if he's thinking of a one hex hit and run landing to trigger Italy out of the war? Thats worth if it a German player is defending effectively to the south, and then you can do a proper mainland landing later in the year.

[Gunnulf]

Turn 6 - 7th Aug '43

The Reich:

8th Air force switched to deep micro raids, taking a shotgun to the Leipzig / Madgeburg area and all of Berlin too. It plays to the strength of the system of course but for me doesn't quite fit with my understanding of reality. Reading a chronology of either 8th Air force (for example - https://8thafhs.org/combat1944a.htmor Bomber command) and it does't list 50 raids on different targets over the week. I believe a number of elements are missing from the equation here; the planning involved in organising raids, processing recon, briefing etc... this wasn't done on the fly with groups heading off to do their own thing relatively b) the morale element - there was a certain safety in numbers that gave confidence flying in bigger groups that maybe is not reflected in these small raids, there should be a negative morale effect of flying in small groups over germany. As we have seen the German answer is to step up interception to 300%, which means each group getting swarmed and continually outnumbered. This would run nerves hard compared to flying in raids of hundreds where the odds are better iii) navigation, this was a pretty big deal in the days before GPS. As mentioned above my grandfather was a navigator in a pathfinder squadron, completing 2 tours in 43 over France and Germany (thankfully safely, and his old log book makes interesting reading even though sadly he has long passed and was fairly quiet about the experience himself). Finding the target at night was a big deal even with the innovations in OBOE etc... These small raids on multiple targets can't possibly be reflecting the full benefit of a properly organised, pathfinder led mission. This is not a rail on QBall at all, its not gamey I don't think but I do feel something of the flavour of the campaign is being missed here. The end result will and should be the case that the Luftwaffe will be ground to dust, and the economy will be in ruins by 45, but I would like the pros and cons of various strategies to involve more incentives than trying to get at least 1% damage in as many places as possible rather than hammering a small amount of targets properly. Anyway, to re-iterate, QBall is judging it all well, has an effective strategy and its paying off in VPs. +13VP for bombs dropped, -2VP for Uboats not scratched.

[Gunnulf]

Sardinia

Here is the current front line this turn. His infantry arrived but he declined to attack. Seems in reasonable shape though so looks like enough ammo and socks are getting through. A notable mention to the Italian air force this turn getting the better of spitfires. This turn 21(!) port raids went in on the already abandoned port of Tortoli on the east coast. 50 B17 or B26 in each. The port remains open... Its his now anyway
In summary, Sardinia might yet become a prison camp but it won't fall to him in August at least and the prospect of a Rome invasion in September is (slightly) less. In fact I suspect we can keep Italy in the game into September, for better or worse, as neither Island will be completely his.