Argentina vs. USA: Aurorus (J) vs. Apbarog (A)

[Aurorus]

March 5th

My sub screen around Pago Pago had detected several large enemy TFs headed west into SoPac, including precious TKs at Pago Pago. Alas, my mini sub ran aground trying to attack the TKs.

I-18 launches midget submarine Ha-3 to attack Pago Pago
SSX Ha-3 runs aground and is lost attempting to penetrate harbor at Pago Pago

It would be very nice to intercept one or more of these TFs with surface elements or CVs. I am not sure how, though. I am working on a plan. I may split my CV force (which is risky this far south). I may leave Yamamoto grp. (which includes the 3 CVLS, Akagi, and Kaga) near Noumea and move Nagumo grp south for a day or two with no Val search or Val ASW (to try to disguise the location of the CVS), just the Jakes. I really do not like the idea of dividing my fleet CVs so far south in enemy waters and then relying on limited my navS, but sometimes, Japan must take some risks. This may be one of those times.

I will not be able to get at the TKs, though I may be able to surpise one or both of the large transport grps. I have not decided if it is worth the risk or not. I will probably sleep on it.

I am still convinced that the hvy radio traffic I picked up on sigint from Brisbane the other day was the allied CVs. I am now thinking that they may be rounding southern Australia to try to surprise TKs at Palembang. It is a move that Apbarog made in his game with Walker. I have subs covering the route though, and they may spot the allied CVs. I also have groups of TBs on patrol 7 hexes from Java and 7 hexes from Palembang. If the allied CVs are indeed headed for the DEI, I would have a free hand to make havoc for the allied transport groups in Sopac.

[Aurorus]

I have decided to try to move the whole of first air fleet to try to cut off the transport TFs from reaching Australia. This greatly reduces the possibility of catching the TFs by surprise and destroying allied assets, but it best protects my CVs and should force Apbarog to retreat his transports south to New Zealand. Hopefully, I will be able to start my Lord Howe Island operation before these reinforcements reach Australia. Fuel will be a major consideration. I just refueled the CVs via fast AOs two days ago in the center of the Coral Sea. However, the amphibious grp. for the operation to take Lord Howe Island will begin loading in 5 days. The CVs will not have time or fuel to return to Tulagi or Rabaul to refuel. I will have to run another fast AO grp. through the Coral Sea and the allied subs to reach KB, and have still another on hand at Tulagi to meet the CVs after the Howe operation. Going this far south creates major logistical problems. Taking the DEI early, however, and preventing any withdrawal of fuel and oil provides me extra fuel for fleet ops.

JAAF and JNAF aviation support Battalions are not the same, and each has its use. The JNAF battalions often have a good compliment of searchlights, which assists flak guns against night raids. I want JNAF battalions were I expect night-time bombing and where I have flak guns. JAAF battalions receive radar first, beginning in March 1942. I bought out 4 JAAF Bns from the home islands to move to SoPac for the radar. 2 of these are at Koumac and awaiting the production of the first Tai-Chi 1 radar devices, which come online at the rate of 4 per month.

[Aurorus]

March 6

Apbarog's very effective submarine campaign finally hit a CV. Soryu received a torpedo in the night of the 6th and there was a secondary ammunition explosion. The damage is concerning but not heavy. There are no fires. Soryu remains capable of air ops. The engine is undamaged and maximum speed is reduced by only 3 knots. Her manuevability is unaffected. I have decided to leave her in the TF, as splintering the TF and the escorts would probably expose her and the other CVs to more risk than leaving her in the TF. These CVs will be on station in SoPAC to support the Howe Island invasion for 2 more weeks, so this is not a bappy state of affairs. Haruna is repairing some system damage and will be available in 2 days. I think I will move the AR from Truk down to Tulagi soon and hopefully put Soryu into Tulagi for repairs. The AR should be able to repair all the currect damage except for 1 point of flooding damage.

The CVs will move SE today, directly between Noumea and Suva: 9 hexes from each. If those transport TFs continued without rerouting directly S, the CVs should come into range of at least 1 TF tomorrow. Also of interest is that it appears the TK TF is continuing on west from Pago Pago, probably after transferring some fuel to the YOs. It has a chance to blunder into the CVs as well.

[Aurorus]

The last isolated Chinese units in the Wenchow area have been destroyed as has the last unit in the Loyang-Nanyang pocket. So, it is time to pursue further objectives. I have put together 3 plans and weighing the merits, feasability, and difficulties of each.

Apbarog has done a good job, in my opinion, of setting up a perimeter in China, defending in depth, and preventing flanking manuevers. He has not fallen into the trap of creating big stacks. So, further advances will not be simple.

Here is plan 1. This plan involves an offensive on Sian through the best terrain available for offensive operations. One oversight in Apbarog's defense of China is a crucial x3 hex that guards the Taiyung-Sian road. This plan requires 5 divisions, 3 armored regiments and a mass of artillery, but should result in the eventual conquest of Sian and could lead to the complete destruction of 5 or 6 more Chinese corps in an isolated pocket. The problem with this plan is that the southern portion of the advance is a move through difficult terrain, and the Chinese will be able to respond quickly using the roads if they spot movement arrows or if the initial attack in the rough terrain hex along the Taiyung-Sian road fails to take the hex.

[Aurorus]

First Air Fleet's move to the deep south came up empty of allied transports, except for 1 AKL that was carrying vehicles. However, I decided to move west past Norfolk Island before moving back north into the Coral Sea to meet fast AOs and cover the Lord Howe landing. I suspected that Apbarog may be building up the island, and I was also concerned about the possibility of a cap-trap. I did not want to move between Norfolk Island and Noumean and set my CV air range to 3 or 4 in case allied CVs should appear. So, I decided to sweep Norfolk and set my Kates to naval strike with a secondary target of the airfield at Norfolk Island: to strike in the afternoon, when any planes damaged by the morning sweeps would be on the deck and vulnerable.

The sweeps came in and found 45 P-40Es. There appears to be no radar on the island, and the sweeps were not detected until the last minute (literally in one case). The Zeros swooped in on the allied fighters scrambling to get off the deck, and it was a massacre. Air-to-air losses for the day show 29 P-40Es down to 0... yes 0... Zeros. I moved a submarine into Norfolk to try to pickup downed pilots but there were none. 2 clean sweeps and a big haul of U.S. fighters. The sweeping groups were the Ryujo grp and the 4th Ku-S, which I moved to the Akagi two months ago to boost its complement of fighters. Banzai!

[Aurorus]

Here is plan 2 for China. This is a big operation that will require every free asset. The objective is to cut the railines to southern and western China, drive on Kwelien, and possibly isolated Chinese units in the Kukong region. The plan is divided into 4 stages.

Stage 1. Gain control of the road and the western river bank north of Kahnsien. This will require 2 divisions: nothing more.

Stage 2. Bypass dot base Pinsiang. Pinsiang is a dot base in rough terrain guarding the roads that lead to Changsha and Hengyang. It is a very important hex, and Apbarog has developed a strong position there: what looks to be at least 3 good corps with an HQ. I will bypass the hex attacking each adjacent hex to threaten the flanks. Taking the hex to the north of Pingsiang threatens Changsha and will hopefully pin Chinese assets in place there. This is diversionary. The real thrust will go to the west of Pingsiang.

Stage 3. Drive west from the hex southwest of Pingsiang and cut both raillines, crossing the river into the clear terrain hex between Kweilin and Hengyang.

Stage 4. Drive north on Kweilin.

Stage 5. Close the pocket.

[Bif1961]

29-0 I guess that's why it is called the Zero.

[MakeeLearn]

Great raid on Norfolk Island !

[Aurorus]

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

29-0 I guess that's why it is called the Zero.

I was very fortunate that there was no radar there and apparently, not even sound detectors or visual search. I am not an expert on the allied OOB, but it seems that Australian and New Zealand aviation support groups and base forces are woefully under-equipped to start the war. Spotting any raid at the very last minute is an invitation to disaster.

[Aurorus]

As to my own CAP efforts. Two IJAAF aviation support btns on New Caledonia have received the first 2 sets of Japanese radar. The next set is slated for an IJAAF btn at Palembang. Upgrades are set to "off" on every aviation support btn except the one that I want to receive the next radar set. Japan produces 7 Ta-Chi 1 radar sets per month at this point in the war, and it will be months before all front-line units receive their upgrades. In my experience, the Ta-Chi 1 is only modestly better than sound detectors.

[Aurorus]

The 6 CVs and 3 CVLs are moving together, formed into 2 TFs. One TF is composed of the Zuikaku, Shokaku, Hiryu, and Soryu. They are escorted by the modern CAs: Tone and Chikuma, along with Maya, which is an older CA and was part of the Chokai grp, which is now at Honshu recieving their March upgrades. The Maya lacks the AA capabilities that I like in CAs for my CV escorts, but after distinguishing herself in several surface enagements (including pounding the Houston- which recon reports show in Townsville receiving repaits), Maya has the most experienced crew available for service with Chokai and Takao in port. The DDs are all Akatsuki or Shikanami class (Fubuki IIIs in stock) for the high AA rating and reasonable endurance. These will be replaced with Yugumo class DDs as these become available.

The CVs have been at sea for nearly 3 months continuously, putting into port only at Rabaul for minors repairs for 10 days. The wear on the ships is showing, and they really need some time in port. Unfortunately, there is no time. The amphibious bonus expires in 20 days, and I want to be ashore on Lord Howe before it expires. The CVs will have to stay at sea for 3 more weeks. Soryu's damage control teams have done a nice job reducing flooding damage down to just the 6 major damage points, and she will probably only need 2 weeks tending from the AR, which is on its way to Rabaul.

My air settings have been standard for most of my time at sea, because I do not really have a feel for how Apbarog likes to conduct his naval air ops. I have the CV-group A6M2s, the B5N2 Kates, and the Vals set at 12K. The CV-group A6M2s are set to 50% CAP. The B5N1 Kates from the CVLs are set at 9K, and the A6M2 groups from the CVLs are set at 9k to provide some layer to the CAP. Hiryu's fighter grp is complemented with a size-9 squadron of A5M4s which are set at 4K, 70% CAP, range 0. Akagi has 21 additional A6M2s from the 4th Ku-S-1 squadron. These are set to 70% CAP, 16K, range 0 (this was one of the groups that swept Norfold Island).

Fatigue among the Zero pilots is on the rise, especially after the fighter sweeps over Norfolk Island. I have decided to move close to New Caledonia and additional fighter cover at Koumac and reduce the range of the CV bombing groups and A6M2 grps to 2 hexes for tomorrow to bring the fatigue in my A6M2s a little. The CVs will then move north to meet fast AOs, when all bombing groups will stand down, and all A6M2s will be set to range 0 to recover fatigue before the Lord Howe operation, which will be perilous, requiring the CVs to cover amphibious grps and SCTFs close to major Australian bases.

[Bif1961]

Having all those CVs in one TF risks lack of coordination if they have to attack an Allied carrier TF. It might be better to break them down into 2 TFs if you believe a carrier battle might be in the offing. I do understand your lack of heavy units to provide adequate AAA and risk a surface attack.

[Aurorus]

Strikes have a higher probability of being uncoordinated for Japan if a CVTF contains more than 200+ (a random number between 0 and 200) aircraft: so the limit in a CVTF for Japan, if one wants to ensure coordination, is 200-400. I have the CVs divided into 2 TFs: the one contains the 4 CVs shown above. The total number of aircraft in this CVTF is approximately 250, so the odds of perfect strike coordination are pretty high: about 75%. The other CVTF contains Akagi, Kaga, Ryujo, Shoho, and Zuiho. The total number of A/C in that TF is about 230. Again the odds of perfect strike coordination from that TF are pretty high, around 85%.

In my experience, 2 CVTFs operating in the same hex will often coordinate their strikes, though not always. So, by dividing the CVs into 2 TFs in this way, I think that I have optimized the probability of good strike coordination. I set reaction range to 0 on both TFs, to prevent one TF from reacting to an enemy TF without the other and thereby separating the 2 CVTFs. Others have stated that they have had their CVTFs separated when one reacts while the other does not.

The escorts for both CVTFs are not optimum in my opinion. I have limited both CVTFs to 15 ships, with 8 DDs in each. More than 15 ships reduces the AA effectiveness of each ship in the TF (and increasing the likelihood of collisions in my experience).

I always like to use Tone and Chikuma and the 3 CS as CV escorts, but I also like to put fast BBs (for extra AA, in case of surface engagement, and to draw aerial attacks away from the CVs) and the more modern CAs in my CVTFs. In this case, I have an older CA, no fast BBs, and both CS are in the other CVTF (the one that contains Akagi and Kaga). This is not my optimum selection of escorts. However, I have been operating these CVs at extended range for 3 months consecutively, and fuel in SoPAC was a major concern until recently. I decided to leave the fast BBs in port to conserve fuel. Later in 1942, and into 1943, when U.S. naval air is a greater threat, I will certainly, almost always, deploy fast BBs with the fleet CVs.

The other thing is that I do not have an SCTF cover TFs lurking near the CVs. This runs counter to my typical deployment. This was also to conserve fuel, and because I recently sank 6 CAs in SoPac, so the threat of U.S. SCTFs is lessened. I will certainly cover the CVs with an SCTF for the Lord Howe operation.

[Aurorus]

March 14, 1942.

Japanese forces enter Rangoon. Apbarog has evacuated Burma mostly, and this worries me, because all allied assets in India are intact. I suspect that the Burma front will be a problem in this game.

I intend, eventually, to deploy 6 heavily reinforced divisions along the India-Burma border. There are 4 in the theater at the moment. The plan, at this point, is to establish a forward position along the Imphal-Ledo road down to Akyab. The IJA will then withdraw the bulk of its forces to the Indian-Burma riverline and maintain only a skirmish line in this forward position.

I am seriously considering an operation to capture Ceylon in this game, but I will have to see what assets are available after the Luzon operation is completed and after the IJA is engaged on the ground in Australia. It will be probably be July at the earliest before any invasion of Ceylon could commence.

[Aurorus]

I want to take a moment to rant so that I feel better.

I have no idea why I suffer such ridiculous operational losses sometimes. Here is a screenshot of my operational losses for today. These 4 Oscar Ics are from 1 squadron that was flying long-range CAP from Moulmein over Rangoon: a range of 2 hexes. T This is 10% of the entire squadron crashed for no reason in 1 day. The pilots in this squadron now have 29 fatigue. Yesterday, when they were assigned to the mission, they had 6 fatigue. There is not a plane in the squadron with any damage or with aircraft fatigue higher than 15. The weather in the hex was overcast, and the airfield is size 4. Every pilot in the squadron has experience of 65 or higher, with most in the 70s. This is absolute, complete, and utter garbage: losing 10$ of an entire squadron of aircraft with veteran pilots on a normal day of routine operations using a paved airfield. Absolute garbage. If the IJA were this incompetent, they would have lost the war in 1942.

[MakeeLearn]

Iam not saying whether your numbers/circumstances are correct, just some info:

"In terms of losses, the best records are those developed by J. Fukamizu, who was in charge of the statistical section of the Japanese Naval Air Department. Although many records were destroyed at wars end, Fukamizu recreated the numbers for the USSBS. For example, for the period April 1, 1942 to April 1, 1943, the JNAF lost 882 fighters in combat and 768 to operational causes. In the same period the JNAF lost 631 tactical bombers to combat and 131 to operational causes. Medium bomber losses were 291 in combat and 174 to operational causes.

From April 1, 1943 to April 1, 1944 Japanese navy fighter losses were 1,170 in combat and 1,673 to operational causes; tactical bomber losses were 367 in combat and 824 due to operational causes; medium bomber losses were 306 to combat and 663 to operational causes."

https://ww2db.com/doc.php?q=30



"In regards to the RAAF losses in the Pacific War total casualities suffered were 2,020 killed, 886 wounded and 417 POW's. In terms of aircraft the RAAF lost 250 to combat and a further 395 to operational causes.
NB: The RAAF figures are from George Odgers "Air War Against Japan", part of the official series Australia In The War Of 1939-45."

[PaxMondo]

You may also wish to read other AAR's. Mike, for example. his ops losses are historically less than 1% for the IJ IIRC. I shoot for under 0.5%.

My most recent game (mod test), I was at 0.21% (149477/314).

LRCAP is hard on planes and low DUR planes that the IJ fly don't handle it well. When you get Frank/George with DUR at 30 and above, you will find that some mission profiles (like LRCAP) suffer far fewer losses.

Without more details, no specific advice is possible. Would need to see combat reports (ideally, watch the combat replay) for the turn involved, and possibly need to see the prior 2 or 3 turns as well to really diagnose anything.

[Aurorus]

There is nothing to see. They were not involved in any combat. They were stood down at Moulmein the last 2 days, while another squadron flew CAP over the advance. That squadron stood down, and 1st Sentai flew today. I have no idea what other information would be relevant beyond distance flown, plane fatigue/damage, pilot fatigue, airfield capacity, pilot experience, and weather.

If there is some other variable, I sure would be curious to know what this all-powerful variable is that caused a squadron of veteran pilots to crash 10% of their aircraft in good weather after a short mission on a paved runway. The Burma Triangle variable... jajaja. The result is absurd... period.

[Kofiman]

4542 sorties flown today, five operational losses.

That just doesn't seem like very many ops losses, not by half. If anything, suppression methods for ops losses may be too strong.

[PaxMondo]

4500 sorties is a reasonable number for IJ in early to mid 42. If you are taking care, 5 is definitely achievable. Most players experience far more as they run a greater tempo ... +7000 in mid 42. So ops losses are tied to tempo, % of aircraft involved in missions, and then to other things like rest%, distance, etc etc etc.