OT: Corona virus

[Erik Rutins]

Passing this along as I think it's a good summary:

http://blog.eladgil.com/2020/02/coronav ... w-for.html

[RangerJoe]

Thank you.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

Italy is surprising. I was suspecting it to get lose in more countries with less medical care such as parts of Africa.

It may be happening elsewhere as it did in Italy, just that no one knows yet that it's happening.

One of the countries I'm most concerned about is Indonesia. Only two reported cases now but a few people who traveled from there developed symptoms and tested positive.

If this disease transmits equally in warm and cold climates we could be in for a very long infectious period throughout the world. Usually there is a flu season, the fall through winter, and then transmission lessons through spring and summer. It seems this is transmitted strongly in warm weather areas like the gulf states, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.

[Canoerebel]

Here's today's map.

Less than 20 new cases in the USA. Somehow, still less than 90,000 cases worldwide. I've been following this map for the past four or five days - long enough to note some trends (to me, as a layman).

These totals appear (again, to a layman) linear. This info seems contrary to what you'd expect in a pandemic, where exponential growth should be taking place; especially now that it's reported in so many places.

This suggests one of two possibilities: (1) growth truly is linear; or (2) we have huge issues in detecting and/or reporting.

So (2) is likely the key thing to look for now.

Also, note the absence of the virus in warmer countries. What's going on in Africa and South America? Does their climate affect it? Comparative lack of travel lessen exposure? Lack of detecting and reporting?

The first case was reported in Lago, Nigeria about four days ago. The headline was huge ("one of the world's supercities!"). The article breathlessly indicated poor healthcare and density of population would make that place an incubator. So far, no indication of that in Africa. Why not?

Here's hoping for the best.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

Italy is surprising. I was suspecting it to get lose in more countries with less medical care such as parts of Africa.

It may be happening elsewhere as it did in Italy, just that no one knows yet that it's happening.

One of the countries I'm most concerned about is Indonesia. Only two reported cases now but a few people who traveled from there developed symptoms and tested positive.

If this disease transmits equally in warm and cold climates we could be in for a very long infectious period throughout the world. Usually there is a flu season, the fall through winter, and then transmission lessons through spring and summer. It seems this is transmitted strongly in warm weather areas like the gulf states, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.

Erik,

Based upon the Washington outbreak, I think we can state with absolute confidence that it is now within the overall population and within the next few weeks the pandemic will officially be declared.

The only thing we don't know yet is the actual mortality rate of this virus. we now know that it transmits very readily, that people with little to no exhibited symptoms are contagious, and that some people have a high resistance while others are very vulnerable. The last point suggests that an effective vaccine is probable, but its likely 2 years or more away.

Given 2nd point above, it suggests that the mortality rate will likely be closer to the normal flu; clearly a large number of people have contracted it with little to no symptoms.

[Canoerebel]

Here's a particular good website maintained by Johns Hopkins, with lots of drop-down clickability (only a part of the page displayed here, for size reasons). Link: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

[Canoerebel]

In the lower right corner of the Johns Hopkins website is this chart.

Wow. China accounts for by far the most cases - and it's leveled off considerably. Why? Is it the virus or detection/reporting.

Even "Other" cases have leveled off.

I hope Chickenboy weighs in. What's going on?

[Canoerebel]

Selecting for "Daily Cases" on the Johns Hopkins chart gives this (number of daily cases trending down):

[Uncivil Engineer]

IMO reporting stinks. Especially reporting by the media. I would suspect that cases in Africa are not being reported. How would one know if they have corona virus or the seasonal flu?

This has been blown out of proportion by the media, exactly like they do with every hurricane that develops. I heard yesterday that NO kids under 10 have died as a result of corona virus (unlike the flu), only older people with some sort of medical condition they had before infection.

[Canoerebel]

For reasons I described near the start of this thread, Spanish flu mortality disproportionately affected those in the prime of life, rather than the young or the elderly. It's probably too early yet to know for certain how age will play in this outbreak, but there are early indications that the elderly and infirm are at considerably higher risk.

I need more information, and it'll come day by day. But two things I'm most anxious to see now: (1) informed analysis by somebody like Chickenboy; (2) any indication that there are real issue with diagnosis and/or reporting.

To this point, the more information I gather, the better I feel about the situation. But that feeling depends very much on the quality/reliability of said information.

[Uncivil Engineer]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

For reasons I described near the start of this thread, Spanish flu mortality disproportionately affected those in the prime of life, rather than the young or the elderly. It's probably too early yet to know for certain how age will play in this outbreak, but there are early indications that the elderly and infirm are at considerably higher risk.

I need more information, and it'll come day by day. But two things I'm most anxious to see now: (1) informed analysis by somebody like Chickenboy; (2) any indication that there are real issue with diagnosis and/or reporting.

To this point, the more information I gather, the better I feel about the situation. But that feeling depends very much on the quality/reliability of said information.

I don't believe anything coming out of China. I don't do Facebook, and since it's a Russian stooge, I wouldn't believe anything there either. You're probably safe sticking with Johns Hopkins, but their sources could be a problem.

[Canoerebel]

To clarify, I'm using the two sources mentioned on the previous pages. Their reports are similar, though not identical. They seem credible and lack the hysteria that would lead me to have doubts, but the reliability of diagnostics and reporting is still uncertain.

If the sources were reporting exponential growth of the kind implied by news reports, the level of concern would be accordingly much higher. But this information is encouraging. Is it reliable? That's the question.

[MakeeLearn]

Be careful where you get your news about coronavirus

https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/be- ... 0020118801





Know the facts about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and help stop the spread of rumors.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... facts.html

[MakeeLearn]

Medline Plus, from the US National Library of Medicine
https://medlineplus.gov/coronavirusinfections.html

UK’s National Health Service
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

Food and Drug Administration
https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedn ... s-covid-19

WHO
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... virus-2019

CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/index.html


These guys are just so cute! Little Baby Apocalypses.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Here's one perspective from yesterday, contains links to official sources.

No link, dude. [:-]

Doh!
https://fabiusmaximus.com/2020/02/29/us-fights-covid-19/

[Scott_USN]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

Italy is surprising. I was suspecting it to get lose in more countries with less medical care such as parts of Africa.

It may be happening elsewhere as it did in Italy, just that no one knows yet that it's happening.

One of the countries I'm most concerned about is Indonesia. Only two reported cases now but a few people who traveled from there developed symptoms and tested positive.

If this disease transmits equally in warm and cold climates we could be in for a very long infectious period throughout the world. Usually there is a flu season, the fall through winter, and then transmission lessons through spring and summer. It seems this is transmitted strongly in warm weather areas like the gulf states, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc.

That is true just not showing yet. Which is the dangerous part of this one is its delay.

[MakeeLearn]

The Masque of the Red Death

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtmyMA4OkCQ

"And the rumor of this new presence having spread itself whisperingly around, there arose at length from the whole company a buzz, or murmur, expressive of disapprobation and surprise --then, finally, of terror, of horror, and of disgust. "
The Masque of the Red Death- Poe

[Q-Ball]

I work for a contractor to the Dept. of Veteran Affairs, and I can tell you the VA is in full freak-out mode. Every discretionary project is dropped right now for Coronovirus prep and protocols. I know many of you served, and have probably been to a VA hospital, so you know it's full of older veterans with health issues, the exact population that is most vulnerable.

Add to that the political microscope the VA is under, and the fact that no VA administrator wants to be the first to have an outbreak at their station, and it's just an interesting time right now!!!

[Kull]

I am not a medical professional, but to me the Diamond Princess is the closest thing we have to a coronavirus infection laboratory. Or at least a contained environment, where you might be able to look at the numbers and draw some conclusions. As far as we can tell, the virus began with a single passenger who boarded on 1/20 in Japan and departed in Hong Kong on 1/25. He was diagnosed in Hong Kong 6 days later, which is when the cruise line was notified and the saga began.

There's an article (mostly anecdote and innuendo) on what happened aboard during this period. Although readers are advised to have a large grain of salt close to hand, it does suggest that there was a fair amount of chaos involving the process of testing and treatment, and the entire environment was hardly "hospital sterile". Which, for our purposes, is actually kind of ideal since in that sense it's pretty close to what we're going to see as and when this thing rises up elsewhere.

Some numbers:

- 2/1: There were 3700 passengers and crew when the cruise was routed back to Yokohama
- 2/4: The ship arrived and was placed in quarantine.
- 2/6: Announced that 41 passengers/crew tested positive (41)
- 2/9: 66 more positives (107)
- 2/11: 39 positives (146)
- 2/16: 67 positives (213). "High risk" individuals identified, 67 of which tested negative, 12 of these to be disembarked.
- 2/18: 169 positives (382)
- 2/19: Quarantine period ends. 600 "guests" who tested negative allowed to depart (will undergo additional 14 day quarantine in their home countries)

At that point I can't find additional sources to give us the daily counts, but as of today, this website says the numbers are:

- 3/1: 705 cases, 7 deaths, 100 recovered, 36 "serious/critical"

So let's do some math:

- If we assume the contagion started on 1/20, it took 43 days to infect 705 of 3700 (19%)
- 7 of 705 have died, so the mortality rate (among those exposed) is 1%
- At least some of the 36 "serious/critical" cases could still succumb, so the worst case fatality rate would be 6% (although that's clearly unlikely)

The takeaways:

- "Local" fatality rates could get pretty high when/if this thing gets into vulnerable populations. Nursing homes or old age communities could be scary places.

- It's hard to imagine any environment "more communal" than a cruise ship, yet with unrecognized and uncontained spread underway for 16 days, we still have a pretty low contagion rate which appears to have maxed out at 19%.

- That's not nothing, but it certainly implies that if people take reasonable precautions, they should be pretty safe. And for those who are not in the "high risk" categories, it's more likely to hit you as an extremely nasty case of the flu. Unpleasant yes, but not the end of the world.

[Uncivil Engineer]

Looks like the stock market has noticed that the world didn't end over the weekend.