Fleet assets

[Chiteng]

Originally posted by byron13
Aah, we're young yet. We'll grow up sometime. I hope you don't stop posting, LTCMTS, as your insight and clarity are most welcome. Frankly, you're the only poster I've seen that has the style and perspicacity to match wits with mdiehl, and we need that balance too.

Speak for yourself =)
I contradict him all the time. =)

[Chiteng]

Originally posted by mdiehl
Stanley Weintraub (A Long Day's Journey into War) mentioned that the IJN recon reported heavy clouds at 1500m. How does that square with level bombing attacks from 10,000 feet? Can anyone confirm the 10k feet altitude for the Kate attacks?



Points 1-5 agreed to without objection. Point 6 is an overclaim. It depends on how robust the gates and how big the bomb. It also depends on whether the gate is opened or closed. The blast overpressure may result in no damage whatsoever. Point 7 assumes that significant damage has occurred. If so, then the drydock is undoubtedly "not usable until repaired."

Point 8 is pure speculation. If you are talking about several months repair you seem to be assuming that the damage is so severe that the entire gate, hinging & closing mechanisms need to be replaced. OTOH, if the damage is minor it might be fixxed in 48 hours. Even if complete replacement of the gate is required, the "several months" part of your conjecture is purely speculative. It might take only the amount of time required to ship one from the states.

Point 9 is, well, awkward. No one has disputed the theoretical ability for a perfect convergence of pilot, plane, the right weapon system, Luke Skywalker, the Death Star and an Exhaust Port to all align favorably at just the right second. But how likely is it that the Japanese could destory any of these harder targets? You can do LOTS of damage to buildings. These, however, are relatively easy to replace. The critical stuff (machine tools in particular are the heart of "machine shops") is VERY difficult to damage. Kido Butai never inlicted on ANY facility the density of bomb hits delivered by B17s in, for example, Regansburg, and machine tools survived these raids pretty well. Other critical pieces of equipment require substantial explosives that could not be carred by the Val. The Kate seems to have the payload to carry a big weapon, but for the concussive effects you'd need a sequence of Kates each with one big bomb picking on one and only one target. Repeat as often as you can. Note that at the time, Kates used "pattern bombing." Basically, they endeavored to accomplish with 27 Kates what the USAAF could attempt to accomplish with 8 B17s.

Point 10. The buildings and facilities were minimal and the damage was largely structural. There was modest impairment of the port to function as a port because of pier damage, no long-term impairment of the airfields. The worst damage was on ships, a couple of giv't bldgs, and an airplane hanger.



from http://www.diggerhistory.info/pages-bat ... darwin.htm

With respect to infrastructure damage, the Commission of Inquiry's report (see http://home.st.net.au/~pdunn/darwin02.htm) indicates that most of the damage to Darwin's piers was cause by the explosion of a ship (Neptuna)at the pier that was carrying a partial cargo of munitions, rather than by bomb hits.

All I see is Mdeihl's continued attempt to prevent a viable alternative to simply smacking the BB at Pearl Harbor.

[mogami]

Originally posted by Chiteng
All I see is Mdeihl's continued attempt to prevent a viable alternative to simply smacking the BB at Pearl Harbor.

Hi, Well even though I've bombed the repair facilities in the game I'd always bomb the BB. (VP)(The VP are forever the damage to the port will repair.) Unless the port attack can somehow aid in gaining VP in excess of the BB there is no point.

In real life terms if you don't sink the BB and damage a lot of ships the PH repair factors will not be doing anything that their not being operantional will effect. This means the Japanese have to make at least two strikes.

On day one the IJN will lose between 30-45 aircraft.
On day two they will lose between 45-60.

So while they can knock out the PH repair (and damage a lot of ships) They will also knock out their carrier airgroups.

[mdiehl]

Hi, Even if the machine tool is not destroyed it needs repair. (the wiring and power cords melt and need to be fixed. Not a major job but still the machine is not simply dug out of the rubble and put back into use on the street. If some of us are exaggerating the damage others are trivializing it.

I don't think anyone has trivialized the damage, Mogami. Bear in mind that there seem to be many people who think that a successful third or fourth wave would (depending on the speculative target du jour) shut down PH for up to a year. I don't think KB had a ghost of a chance, obviously. In pursuing these detailed discussions of which target exactly (machine tools, oil tank farms. dry docks, stores, shipyard equipment) I think we hit upon the way to figure out how much the KB can achieve and how much effort is required to achieve that purpose, given the historic a/c and their available loadouts.

If the game posited that an unusually effective and largely unopposed 3rd and 4th wave (opposed only by flak) made it very difficult to conduct major operations out of Pearl Harbor for one month (basically, all the ships entering and leaving the port are moving in troops, supplies, and stuff to rebuild the infrastructure, and the BBs have to sit on the bottom or become barely seaworthy to risk returning to the West Coast), and limited operations (a couple CVs and their DD and CA escorts) for another month, it would be "in the ballpark" IMO.

[mogami]

Hi, We have to remember what WITP is. It is not a grand tactical system. It is an operational system.
In a tactical game the IJN CV airgroups would be flying non stop shuttle missions from zero dark thirty till sun down (In the pound Pearl Harbor strike revision)
While this is certainly what I would do if I was trying to execute this strategy WITP cannot
accommodate it. (You get one port attack per day)

While not discounting the validity of pounding Pearl Harbor I understand it is not feasible given the present system. (And I do not think it would be "War Altering" (It might result in the additional loss of a few ships but it does no harm as far as preventing any allied action.
(The USN is not going any where) By the time a ship damaged at another location reaches PH the base will be up and running) (This reflects the operational level of the game.)

The main point is simply. Can the IJN alter the strike on PH (by switching targets or by making additional attacks) in a manner that impacts the USN's ability to conduct the operations they would/will be conducting without such a strike?

[Chiteng]

Originally posted by mdiehl
I don't think anyone has trivialized the damage, Mogami. Bear in mind that there seem to be many people who think that a successful third or fourth wave would (depending on the speculative target du jour) shut down PH for up to a year. I don't think KB had a ghost of a chance, obviously. In pursuing these detailed discussions of which target exactly (machine tools, oil tank farms. dry docks, stores, shipyard equipment) I think we hit upon the way to figure out how much the KB can achieve and how much effort is required to achieve that purpose, given the historic a/c and their available loadouts.

If the game posited that an unusually effective and largely unopposed 3rd and 4th wave (opposed only by flak) made it very difficult to conduct major operations out of Pearl Harbor for one month (basically, all the ships entering and leaving the port are moving in troops, supplies, and stuff to rebuild the infrastructure, and the BBs have to sit on the bottom or become barely seaworthy to risk returning to the West Coast), and limited operations (a couple CVs and their DD and CA escorts) for another month, it would be "in the ballpark" IMO.

I certainly have never said 'up to a year' nor have I seen anyone else say that. Mdeihl is now exagerating to the point of absurdity.
I think the maximum possibly damge would be no longer than the time it would take to build a NEW Pearl Harbor.
That would not be a year.

Has ANYONE seen it take a year to build a 9/9 port? in UV?

[Mr.Frag]

Would it not simply be an easier solution then getting stuck on the PH issue to do what was done in UV?

A pre/post PH version of the scenario like UV's pre/post Midway

Those who want to have a *3rd/4th* strike scenario can simply load the post PH version, and add agreed to damage to the base and assets while damaging/removing a set number of strike aircraft from Japan's CV fleet.

Seems the only way to put this one to bed without getting stuck forever trying to code something that obviously will have too many possible outcomes.

Very difficult to deal with what is obviously a unique situation at a code level similarly to how UV can't deal with Midway with multiple air strikes per turn at different targets. The game engine supports 2 phases of air combat, it does not offer different target selection per phase. We would need this to be sliced into 4 air phases with the ability to set target priorities for each phase to be able to deal with these *one of* type scenarios and even then, they would probably only cause people to overuse this new ability resulting in massive depletion of CV air groups, since they now could kick out 4 missions a turn.

[Mike_B20]

I haven't read the whole thread but I see people are talking about third and fourth strikes on PH.

One of the main reasons the Japs withdrew from PH without sending in extra strikes is they didn't know of the whereabouts of the US carriers and were afraid of a Midway scenario.
Obviously, the feasibility of sending extra strikes against PH is gained by the benefit of 100% intelligence of the exact locations and possible manouevres of the US carriers.

If IJN wants the option of sending extra strikes against PH it should be a scenario with random starting positions for US carriers.
There should also exist the possibility of ambushing the IJN fleet exactly like Midway, in the process of recovering, refueling and rearming their aircaft.

[mogami]

Originally posted by Mike_B20
I haven't read the whole thread but I see people are talking about third and fourth strikes on PH.

One of the main reasons the Japs withdrew from PH without sending in extra strikes is they didn't know of the whereabouts of the US carriers and were afraid of a Midway scenario.
Obviously, the feasibility of sending extra strikes against PH is gained by the benefit of 100% intelligence of the exact locations and possible manouevres of the US carriers.

If IJN wants the option of sending extra strikes against PH it should be a scenario with random starting positions for US carriers.
There should also exist the possibility of ambushing the IJN fleet exactly like Midway, in the process of recovering, refueling and rearming their aircaft.

Hi, You should read the whole thread. If the USN CV were ever to get in range of the IJN CV it would not be Midway (but it might prevent Midway from occuring. There are 6 IJN CV. There are two USN CV in 2 TF both USN CV have undersize air groups. The good news is both USN CV are out of range and need 2-3 days to get to PH.

[Mike_B20]

Yes, but if most of the IJN aircraft are pounding PH the odds would be somewhat more level. Also, the Japs didn't know the location of the third carrier did they?
You are making the decisions based on 100% intelligence of the US carriers..their positions, air wing strengths, pilots morale, experience etc.
If the IJN made extra sorties the US would have 100% knowledge of the IJN TF location and could perhaps achieve exactly the same Midway scenario, even with only 2 carriers, if they timed it right.

[mogami]

Originally posted by Mike_B20
Yes, but if most of the IJN aircraft are pounding PH the odds would be somewhat more level. Also, the Japs didn't know the location of the third carrier did they?
You are making the decisions based on 100% intelligence of the US carriers..their positions, air wing strengths, pilots morale, experience etc.
If the IJN made extra sorties the US would have 100% knowledge of the IJN TF location and could perhaps achieve exactly the same Midway scenario, even with only 2 carriers, if they timed it right.

Hi, Again there are 2 not 3 USN CV they are not located together
So they will be making 2 very small strikes. (If they can get in range.
The basic error is saying that if the Japanese player using forces that actually were in place decides to go against history by remaining that this should somehow alter the starting locations and choices for the allied player. The USN CV were conducting operations. One USN CV was scheduled to arrive PH on the 7th but could not get there till the 8th. If the IJN TF remains another day it wll have CAP and can still reserve airgroups in case USN CV appear. If you Know how to set up CV TF you know that by setting airgroups to Naval Attack primary and port attack secondary. The groups wait for the morning search before arming. If a TF is found it becomes target. If not a port attack is made. (or whatever is selected for secondary target)
It would be very hard to "surprise" the IJN unless they select Port attack as primary.
The USN CV have to be located on the map before the Japanese player decides to leave or launch further strikes. (They are placed in their historic Dec 7th locations) As the USN I always insure my CV stay out of harms way by diverting them to Johnson Island. Only after I am certain the IJN have departed do I set them to move to PH.

[Mike_B20]

Well, you are talking about one of the shortcomings of the UV system. The inability of ever achieving a surprise strike on another carrier taskforce recovering aircraft.
I know that with the UV system the US wouldn't have a hope in hell of taking on the IJN carriers.

I know there were only two carriers around Hawaii at the time but did the Japanese know for certain that the third wasn't somewhere nearby.

My point was simply that by using the start of game 100% knowledge of US dispositions to send those second, third and fourth strikes it's smacks of Gamey with a capitol G.

[mogami]

Originally posted by Mike_B20
Well, you are talking about one of the shortcomings of the UV system. The inability of ever achieving a surprise strike on another carrier taskforce recovering aircraft.
I know that with the UV system the US wouldn't have a hope in hell of taking on the IJN carriers.

I know there were only two carriers around Hawaii at the time but did the Japanese know for certain that the third wasn't somewhere nearby.

My point was simply that by using the start of game 100% knowledge of US dispositions to send those second, third and fourth strikes it's smacks of Gamey with a capitol G.

Hi Saying the Japanese player can not stay a second day smacks of gamey to me. The Japanese player would be very happy to be prevented from hitting PH on the 8th if the alternative was sinking a USN CV. What importance is it that they do not know where the USN CV are?
As TF commander I know my scout planes have greater range then the USN scouts. Certainly PH may launch search planes but as for knowing the location of my carriers I do not agree. I've had at least 12 hours to move and all PH know is the direction my strikes on the 7th came from (and this was not passed on to anyone till the 9th)

Most importantly. WITP and UV are operational level games. Not tactical. In those confines I think the Japanese player who sends his TF to make a 2 day strike can be fairly secure in knowing the danger is slight (all the important hurdles have been cleared before the game begins. The CV are in range and launching on turn one. The USN player who trys to win the war on turn one might lose it.

[Tanaka]

Originally posted by Mike_B20
Well, you are talking about one of the shortcomings of the UV system. The inability of ever achieving a surprise strike on another carrier taskforce recovering aircraft.
I know that with the UV system the US wouldn't have a hope in hell of taking on the IJN carriers.

Because the UV game engine is set up for 1 or more day turns this unfortunately would not be possible to implement. As it is now things all happen at the same time...during the day and during the night. It would only be possible to implement if UV ran on hourly turns. Then time and distance and luck and coordination and all those things would be possible to put into the game and thus the one big thing missing from UV...SURPRISE and TIMING...would in itself be possible. But of course then the games would really take forever!!!:D

[Mike_B20]

Fine, go ahead and hang around for a second day, launch your bombers against PH.
You KNOW the exact strength of remaining LBA and they are no threat, so you don't need to send much escort.
Heck, you even know the approximate location of each carrier, their airwings, their pilots names, morale and experience.
You could even divide your carrier fleet up and attempt to bushwack the individual US carriers as they flee in panic to safer waters.

[mogami]

Originally posted by Mike_B20
Fine, go ahead and hang around for a second day, launch your bombers against PH.
You KNOW the exact strength of remaining LBA and they are no threat, so you don't need to send much escort.
Heck, you even know the approximate location of each carrier, their airwings, their pilots names, morale and experience.
You could even divide your carrier fleet up and attempt to bushwack the individual US carriers as they flee in panic to safer waters.

Hi, I think I'm missing something here. In a PBEM game the IJN player will have no idea where the USN CV are. And the USN player will have no idea where the IJN CV are. (until, they are spotted by search planes, submarine contact or they launch strike)
This will only be incorrect in games where.
The IJN TF remains in the same hex
Where the USN player gives no orders to his CV TF.
However you will not know they have done so unless you spot them.
You are over rating.
The value of the second day of strikes.
The power of the USN CV
under rating
The need for the IJN to send escorts with a second day attack.

In short it is impossible for either player to win the game on turn one. (or two, or three.....)

Operational level versus tactical level means don't become to wrapped up in the little messages posted during combat. Don't get bent out of shape by what you think you are seeing. In every test I've ran the allies have launched strikes on the IJN CV on Dec 7th. As the Allies I just add these lost aircraft to the Japanese strike total. I know no strike was ever launched by the USA on Dec 7th. (I've even seen them score a hit now and then)
There is always the danger of a USN sub putting a torpedo into one of the IJN strike force ships. The USN player has to be concerned about all the IJN subs around PH. This is not a historical reenactment. The game will produce a new version of the war. The question is "Is it possible" and "how much influence on events do I have"

[TIMJOT]

Originally posted by Mike_B20
Yes, but if most of the IJN aircraft are pounding PH the odds would be somewhat more level. Also, the Japs didn't know the location of the third carrier did they?
You are making the decisions based on 100% intelligence of the US carriers..their positions, air wing strengths, pilots morale, experience etc.
If the IJN made extra sorties the US would have 100% knowledge of the IJN TF location and could perhaps achieve exactly the same Midway scenario, even with only 2 carriers, if they timed it right.

I agree with Mogami, the fact is that practically Nagumo's whole staff including Fuchida his attack commander, Genda his air commander and Yamaguchi his best carrier commander were for the strike iregardless of not knowing the whereabouts of the USN CVs. There was a very real chance the decision could have been made. With suprise being gone Genda's plan was to hold back 2 CVs in reserve for naval strike with additional CAP and to send out scouts to look for the CVs. In fact one of the reasons given to hang around for a 3rd attack was chance find the USN CVs. Not everyone was as nervous as Nagumo. His reasons are not convinceing considering Yamamoto had told him to expect to lose up to 1/3 to 1/2 his strike force.

BTW, How does the US get 100% knowledge of the IJN TF location? They might have guessed in the general area NW of Hawaii, but there was no way of knowing for sure. The initial radar heading was ambiguous.

Any timely attack on the IJN TF would be shear luck. Halsey would be compelled to launch immediately once the TF was located, he simply could not afford to do otherwise under the circumstances.

[mogami]

Hi, If you are going to conduct a strike on Dec 8th move your TF to the east of PH. You will still be in range to strike but you add 200 miles to the distance any USN CV have to travel. (I don't think a USN CV can be in range but they will be at extended range and the torpedo planes will not be included. The IJN will however still be in range for both Val and Kate. (If USN can hit you with Dauntless you can hit back with everything)
Set your CV for secondary target PH primary Naval attack. If no USN TF then you make your port attack.

This should be the setting for any player moving to attack enemy port. (Of course their are problem with this. I once sent 300 aircraft to sink 1 AO and 2 SC and did not launch the port attack)

[Mike_B20]

Every available scout capable plane in Hawaii would be looking for the IJN fleet.
Ok, so there weren't many left but there were several airfields and I'm sure thay could have scraped something together.

Look, I agree that staying around for extra strikes was the right decision but given the huge advantage in intelligence the IJN player would have at the start of the game, all his decisions are based on 100% knowledge of US capabilities.
It just doesn't seem right.

Also, how many planes would have been lost to a prepared enemy on the subsequent strikes?
What would have been the IJN airstrength afterwards?
For all the Japs knew the US carriers were together and brimming with planes.

In my view there should be some sort of seperation at the start to allow for variety in defense or offense.
Not to say there shouldn't be a what-if scenario but it should be seperate.
I think Pacific War had it about right starting post PH with the IJN fleet half way home.

[TIMJOT]

Originally posted by Mike_B20

You KNOW the exact strength of remaining LBA and they are no threat, so you don't need to send much escort.

How do you know this? Each attack will have variable losses.