Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

I haven't kept close enough watch to know how the supplies arrived in Burma theater and how they have been distrubuted.  I assume that Rangoon generates some supplies, and I've had one TF of about 10-15 AKL deliver supplies to Rangoon.  Other than that, though, the only possible source of supplies is what the units brought with them and what happens to flow through the jungle from Akyab and/or Imphal. 

[Canoerebel]

2/22/44 and 2/23/44
 
Port Moresby:  Back-to-back attacks dropped forts from 5 to 3, so it appears that the Allies can take this base with the force at hand.  I will divert the reserve force to Darwin.
 
Koepang:  Back-to-back attacks dropped forts from 4 to 2, so the success of this invasion seems sure also.
 
Ternate:  The Allies have landed base force and HQ personnel at this level five airfield.
 

[Canoerebel]

2/24/44 and 2/25/44
 
Burma/Thailand:  The Allies have succeeded in created a crisis situation north of Bangkok.  The north prong of the Allied army assaulted across the river and easily brushed aside the Japanese defenders at Pinsuloke, which is significant becasue that was Japan's strongest force north of Bangkok.  Also, a big Indian division and an armored unit emerged from the jungle and took a road hex between Pisanuloke and Bangkok, cutting off the route of retreat for the Japanese.  The Allies will advance to the south, hoping to take the city hex just north of Bangkok.  If successful, the Allies really don't even need to take Bangkok - it can be isolated and bombed.  Miller can possibly still salvage the situation by sending part of his Bangkok garrison north.  The Allied forces are a bit spread out and not strong enough to move on either base yet.  But the situation is developing favorably.
 
Port Moresby:  Falls to the Allies.
 
Koepang:  Forts have dropped to zero, so this base should fall to the Allies tomorrow.
 
Next:  With the flanks secured the Allies will soon be in a position to move forward.  I'm still weighing between Mindanao and Kendari.

[Cathartes]

Ah Spring, the smell of Blitzkrieg in the air.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

ORIGINAL: Cathartes

Ah Spring, the smell of Blitzkrieg in the air.

Xept Burma, there is the smell of the june monsoon in the air [;)]

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

ORIGINAL: Cathartes

Ah Spring, the smell of Blitzkrieg in the air.

Xept Burma, there is the smell of the june monsoon in the air [;)]

[:D]


And HI´s where the smell of kamikaze plane production is in the air...

[Canoerebel]

This maps shows the weird dance that has developed in Burma.  The Allies have succeeded in gaining position to threaten Bangkok from the north.  There is a chance the Allies can take Ayuthia, which will negate the need to take Bangkok and isolate the Japanese army there.  At the same time, the IJA forces at Bangkok and Tavoy are strong and there is a very real threat that the Japanese will launch an counterattack that could threaten the Allied flanks.  The IJA at Bangkok is fresh and should be very strong.  The IJA at Tavoy is the beaten force that retreated from Rangoon, Pegu, and Moulmein, so it shouldn't be capable of too much...yet.  The Allies also have reinforcements about to flood into the area, further complicating my analysis of how much I can do without risking too much.

[Bullwinkle58]

He can evac Bangkok by sea, right? It's a short hop from Saigon.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, he can.  That would suit me fine.  But he probably doesn't want to get bottled up at Bangkok since Allied air power could really target his shipping.
 
If Ayuthia (the town adjacent to and north of Bangkok) falls, I think Miller has to evacuate Bangkok.  His best move would be to send more troops to Ayuthia pronto - just one unit there now and it will face an Indian division, and African division, and change.
 
Why Miller let his other army get bottled up at Tavoy after retreating from Moulmein I don't know.  There's no way out except by sea or by resuming a land campaign to the north.  Moving north would threaten my flank, but expose his troops to air attack.
 
From my perspective the Japanese are facing a crisis in Thailand, but Miller may be bringing in reinforcements that will alter the picture completely before I go much further. 

[John 3rd]

What is the shipping at Bangkok?
 

[Q-Ball]

Nice job! He is certainly in a pickle, no doubt, and you're right about the troops at Tavoy. I can't tell on your map, it looks like they might be marching SW?

I hate to see Chinese units though that far down Burma. I just don't think that could happen IRL. First, Chaing was loathe to release any troops too far from China. Second, the Thais would NOT want Chinese troops entering Thailand, and I think the Allies would not have done so in order to help persuade the Thais to give up.

[Canoerebel]

This war is different than the war that occurred in real life.  In this war, the Japanese ran amock in China, destroying all industry and nearly destroying the entire army.  The devastation was so complete that the Chinese were desperate for relief.  The Allies were hard-pressed to offer any, however, because nearly the entire British army had been transferred from India to Australia in late 1942.  The Western Allies agreed to mount an offensive in Burma if the Chinese would lend troops, which they naturally did.  When the Japanese army suddenly and completely collapsed around Rangoon and Moulmein, the races were on.  The Allies were still very short of troops, so the Chinese agreed to move as far as Tavoy.  This permitted the Western Allies, who are still short of troops, to move on Bangkok.  The Western Allies sweetened the pot by agreeing that the main Allied vector of advance will be toward Vietnam rather than down the Malay Peninsula to Singapore.  The prospect of bringing the second front so close to China persuaded China to cooperate fully.

[Canoerebel]

2/27/44 to 3/1/44

Burma:  The Burma ballet continues.  The Allies have two Indian divisions and an armored unit on the road from the north to Bangkok.  Another three or four divisions are pressing Bangkok from the west.  It will be interesting to see how Miller responds.  Furthern west, at least part of the Japanese army is withdrawing south from Tavoy  on a dead-end road, so the threat-level from that direction went down a bit.

Koepang:  This base fell to the Allies on February 29.  The southern flank of the Allied position in the DEI is now secure except for a small unit on the island of Roti.  The Allies will attend to that shortly.

New Guinea:  The Allies took the little base of Sansapore, where the Japanese units defeated at Sorong and Manikwari had retreated.  This, in conjunction with the taking of Port Moresby a few days ago, secures the northern and eastern side of the Allied position.

Celebes:  The Allied invasion fleet destined for the dot hex adjacent to Manado will rendezvous at Ternate tomorrow.  With all the shipping in the area it is hoped that the Japanese won't deduce what's about to happen; but even if suspicions are aroused the Japanese would likely figure that Manado itself was the target.  Barring a sudden change of mind, D-Day at the dot hex will be tomorrow or the day after.

Naval Actions:  Ther have been many brushes over the past few weeks, some too minor to mention, others I simply forgot to mention.  A Japanese sub torpedoed BB Alabama at Boela several weeks ago. Damage was light/moderate and Alabama is currenty at Perth.  She'll likely move on to Capetown along with damaged BB Massachusetts.  A recon mission indicated an IJN CVE was in port at Tarakan, so B-24s from Ternate targeted that facility a few days ago, putting four bombs into already heavily damaged CVE Taiyo.  A Japanese CL/DD force picked off four xAK at Abemama (near Tarawa) and some IJ torpedo planes picked off a few transports in the DEI delivering troops and cargo to some of the dot hexes recently occupied.

One Year Ago Today:  The Allies invaded the Kurile Islands.  That campaign ultimately resulted in defeat for the Allies, though it brought two important benefits:  (1) the sinking of four Kongo-class BBs and (2) time for the Allies to move and strengthen their position in the DEI.

Then and Now:  A year ago, the Allied position in SWPac consisted of Oz, Merauke (New Guinea) and Saumlaki (and island north of Timor).  Today, the Allies have Timor, all of western New Guinea, all of the Moluccas, Talaud Island, Ceram, and a bunch of smaller islands that have (or will soon have) large airfields.  This advance has been costly to both sides - the Allies losing a major carrier battle but the IJN falling desperately short of BB, CA, and CL.

What's Next:  In the next few months the Allies should move on Mindanao, northern Borneo, and the islands in between.  If successful, the last half of the year will be spent moving on Luzon and coastal China.

[Canoerebel]

3/2/44 and 3/3/44
 
Due to incompatible schedules for the past few days, Miller and I will only get in one turn fom Saturday through tomorrow morning.  This was due in part to me and my family attending a holocaust memorial service yesterday, which featured a talk by Rose Price, who spent five years in camps including Bergen-Belsen and Dachau.  This was an interesting experience.

Celebes:  The Allied landings at Sidate, the dot hex south of Manado, went well. No appearance by Japanese ships or aircraft.  450 AV came ashore and should take the hex tomorrow unless Miller moves a stout force from Manado.  It's possible such a force might arrive in time given the good road link between the hexes, but I don't know if Miller would weaken Manado to do this.  The Allies have several thousand Manado-prepped troops at Morotai, Sorong, and Darwin awaiting an opportunity to be brought into the fray if necessary.  But if Miller doesn't interfere with the Allied landings at Sidate, I'll be content just to build that hex into a nice airfield to neutralize Manado without landing there (at least in the near future).

Burma/Thailand:  Miller has landed additional troops at Bangkok and moved several units to adjacent Ayuthia.  He has also pulled out a few units from Tavoy.  So the situation is beginning to stabalize a bit and it doesn't appear that the Allies can accomplish much more by maneuver - it's time to dig in and fight.

China:  The Allies have disengaged most of the troops involved in the stalled/failed offensives - Sian and Kukong in particular.  These troops are returning to better defensive positions.  Some have begun prepping for Nanning.  At some point in the future the Allies may try to overwhelm the Japanese defenses there.

Points:  The IJ lead is down to 9,500 points.  In our WitP game, the Allies drew even in late January '44.  Here's it's early March '44 and I can't predict at this point when the Allies will draw even - maybe summer or fall of '44.

[Canoerebel]

3/4/44 and 3/5/44

Celebes: The Japanese did not move from Manado to Sidate, so the Allies take the dot hex uncontested. It can be built to a level eight airfield, though I don't know if it will reach that point. I may send Sparrow Battalion to Manado to scout opposition. I may also land reinforcing troops at Sidate and then move on Manado...or I may instead use the transports for the next amphibious move, though I still don't know where that will be.

Why don't I know? Because the decision will be heavily influenced by the position of the KB, should it become known. If the KB is around Java, the Allies will definately move on Mindanao. If the KB is in the Philippines the Allies will move on Kendari instead. If the whereabouts of the KB is unknown, the Allies may prefer to shuttle troops to Sidate and then move on Manado by land, staying within the protection of LBA. This would also allow the Allies to build up the "satellite" airfields around Manado and Kendari to make later moves safer. At this point the whereabouts of the KB is unknown, though I suspect it is in the Philippines.

Breaking Through? To this piont the Japanese have had 40k to 50k troops at their main points of resistance - Morotai and Ternate (since taken by the Allies), Manado, and Kendari. Recon suggests that this may be the tough "outer crust" of Japanese defenses, for it appears that Davao, Dadjangas, Balikpan, Tarakan, and even Soerabaja are not as strongly held.

The DEI Dance: Since the rather disastrous Battle of Morotai in November 1943, the Allied advance has been methodical and very inexpensive (for the Allies). By remaining within range of land-based CAP, using APAs, and utilizing two-day turns to maximum effect, the Allies have been able to successfully invade using a quick "get in and get out" strategy. This has been effective as the Allies have taken Ambon, Namlea, Talaud Island, Ternate, Koepang, and a dozen dot hexes. Miller has been biding his time looking for an opportunity to strike quickly and decisively - like he did at Morotai - but I don't think he's gotten the chance he's wanted. Will he get impatient at the inexorable, even if slow, Allied advance and commit his forces? The combination of the KB, LBA, and kamikazees will definately result in a bloody battle whenever he chooses to give battle.

Allied Carriers: The Allies currently have at least 17 CVE and four CVL in the DEI. An RN CV, CV Intrepid, and two CVL are about to arrive. CV Hornet and two CVL are on the way from Balboa, and CV Bunker Hill and a CVL is on the way from San Francisco. (CV Constitution remains at Alameda for three more weeks repairing damage from Morotai). Barring losses in the meantime, in about a month the Allies should be able to utilize carriers to speed up the rate of advance as the KB will no longer rule the seas (I think).

Burma: The Allies just roughed-up two islolated stacks of IJA troops well north of Bangkok. The IJA units withdrew into the jungles, permitting the Allies to move these forces south towards Ayuthia/Bangkok. Additional Allied reinforcements are moving on Bangkok from the west. Two big base forces have reached Raeheng, so the Allies can begin utilizing airpower from this forward base.

Summary: Due to carrier non-parity and scarcity of transports, the Allied advance has been pretty methodical, but nevertheless quite marked. This will in all likelihood continue until the Allied carriers arrive on scene in one month, at which time we may have another major engagement as the Allies take a big step forward - probably Mindanao.

[JohnDillworth]

I think Miller may be holding the KB back for your next major move. By major move I mean Java or the Philippines. He doesn't know which way you are going but either way he can count on major land based air to support the KB. As in real life the final carrier showdown may come in the Philippines. He will have more kamikazes, better trained LBA and a stronger KB than in real life. Since Miller does not know your intentions he is probably build a strong, strategic reserve and will respond in kind. If you think about it he does not have to hit you quick so much as hit you hard.
just my view of the map

[veji1]

Wow... your ability to land on unoccupied bases that can be built up to level 7/8 airfields is impressive. I don't know how I feel about it gamewise. It makes perfect sense for you to do this, but clearly the japanese can't be everywhere and with so many bases to defend, they must leave many dot bases empty or very lightly defended... which means that once they don't have the ability to contest the air, the land folds very quickly...

Again, goes to prove that the more dot bases around the worse it is for the japanese to defend, and therefore Nothern Asia is a must and developping a network of strong bases around the DEI is paramount, as once that crust is broken, the soft core is so full of undefendable bases that the Allies will be able to expand and SeeBee their way throught the DEI, slowly maybe, but unstoppably, and that as soon as early 43...

[Canoerebel]

You're right, veji1.  I think it's fairly realistic as the Allies could have built a myriad of big bases in the DEI had they chosen to do so. 
 
There are limiting factors - primarily the time, suppies, and engineers needed to build the bases, disruption caused by enemy attack, and the number of base forces needed to make a strategy like this one viable.
 
Here we are in early '44 and I'm moving forward fairly slowly and the enemy is giving tough battle.  The enemy is also 9,500 points ahead.  So Allied progress appears substantial, but I don't think the Japanese are close to beaten yet.  I'll know more by summer, but at this point I don't have enough info to know whether this Allied strategy is unfairly "productive" due to game mechanics and features (mainly the abundance of dot hexes and the power of B-24 bombers).
 

[veji1]

I am not saying it is unfairly productive, at this stage, just like you I am wondering... At least it goes to prove that the core/yoke of the DEI is very soft and that therefore a priority for a japanese player should be to ensure a very solid crust around the DEI (western Sumatra, Java, Bali islands, Timor, Ambon, southwestern PNG all the way to Milne Bay via PM). This seems to be THE frontline in terms of Air/naval war... Burma is a different game, but clearly if I was to play the japanese in a PBEM I would go for northern OZ (not beyond Alice springs) and New Caledonia. Stop there and build up the defenses of the DEI like crazy... If the Allies want to play in the pacific, the more the merrier...

[Q-Ball]

AE is certainly a defensive nightmare for the Empire, with many more buildable bases, particularly in the DEI. It just can't be defended on the ground.

The only limiting factors are invasion preps and port sizes; it can take awhile with the (0) SPS Port Dot bases. But you certainly don't lack for construction troops, there are PILES available to the Allies anyway.

I haven't settled on a defensive strategy, but attempting to garrison every potential base won't work, and neither will piling everyone onto on local base, because that can just be bypassed.

Holding units for counterattack is a good idea, but even this is limited by preps; chances are, your 2-division counterattacking force won't be prepped for the base you want it to be, unlike the Allies, so they will have a Prep advantage.

A few principles I am working on:

1. Build airbase "clusters" of mutually supporting airbases that are all torpedo capable. A single airbase by itself cannot defend itself, the Allies will just bomb it with 4Es. But bombing 3 at once is much tougher. By keeping some level of air control, you can make landings expensive. Pay attention to AIR HQ ranges to provide torp support to several airbases at once.
2. Use float-transports often; keep units out on the perimeter, but pull fragments at the first sign of trouble. Move those fragments to the 3rd or 4th layer of defense, and re-build them.
3. Move units often. If the Allies see an important target with defenses, they may start to prep for it. Evacuate it after 60 days, and those units just prepped for AIR. The reverse, a vulnerable forward base, garrison it at the last minute. This will also interfere with Allied prep timetable. Forcing the Allies to constantly re-Prep units will waste time on their end. Landing unprepped units against oppossition is NOT a good idea, so the Allies have to do some advanced planning for every landing.