Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

5/6/42

Celebes: Uh oh, it looks like the big bad guys are in pursuit.

Lots of Allied TFs down near Boela - good.

Lots of enemy subs still over to the NW - that's good, if they stay over that way for some reason.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Gridley380

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

What's an ASBD?

While I don't wish to distract from the carrier fight, an ABSD is an Advanced Base Sectional Dock - the biggest ARD class in the game.

Have never seen this unit in any of the many games I have played.

[HansBolter]

Establishing air search at Ternate should have been a prerequisite to pushing your carriers so far forward.

It appears you had no air search over the area the KB appeared in and that's why you got bit.

The pace of the advance outstripped forward air search, but the pace will be slowed by necessity now.

Always hate to see the Japanese pull of an 8 hex strike.

I've always seen allowing them to strike at a range the Allied carriers are not allowed to strike at as an artificial developer's freebee gift to Japanese players.

They should be grateful.

[Canoerebel]

5/6/42

Celebes: USN destroyers engage in rearguard actions.

During the a.m. phase, lots of Judys encounter DS, down past Boela. No attacks.

During the p.m. phase, same things.

No messages about CV Altamaha, which is/should be very close to those two rearguard actions (she can only make two knots and was ordered to steam NW to a dot hex).

No messages about CV Intrepid, which took 4 TTs and was ordered to steam at flank to the SE.

There was one malus message about the heavily damaged CVE that's accompanying Intrepid.

Overall, a quiet turn, which is a great relief.

During all the action the past few days, the Allied armies have taken Tassafrong and Namatonai (near Kaevieng) and are close to taking Tulagi.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Establishing air search at Ternate should have been a prerequisite to pushing your carriers so far forward.

It appears you had no air search over the area the KB appeared in and that's why you got bit.

The pace of the advance outstripped forward air search, but the pace will be slowed by necessity now.

Always hate to see the Japanese pull of an 8 hex strike.

I've always seen allowing them to strike at a range the Allied carriers are not allowed to strike at as an artificial developer's freebee gift to Japanese players.

They should be grateful.

You're right, I should have put NavSearch at Ternate. I didn't because I had no supply there nor any aviation support. It wouldn't have mattered, probably. Dave would've (and probably did) use some flank speed to insert KB where it wasn't expected. I'd bet the house I wouldn't have gotten detection on his carriers leading up to the day of attack. I think they were posted at or near Manila.

[Canoerebel]

5/6/44

CVE Suwannee: Can she make it?

[Canoerebel]

5/6/44

CV Intrepid: She seems to be making way in pretty good shape.

Barring calamity (most likely in the form of enemy subs, which aren't present in the route of retreat yet), Allied losses in the battle will be CVEs Breton and Copahee and almost certainly Suwannee. Both sides lost a DD or two. Japan lost a bunch of subs and 4x or better aircraft (over the past week, in the air and on the ground Japan has lost more than 1,000 aircraft).

The Allies have a bunch of good ships out of action for months but have replacements to make good those losses. KB wasn't touched. Allied aircraft and pilots weren't materially damaged while KB's aircraft and pilots were heavily hit.

The Allies strengthened the northern redoubt (Ternate) and added Morotai. Kendari, Ambon and Sorong airfields were suppressed and can be again. The Allies should be able to work on "interior" enemy bases like Ambon and Boela without grave threat. And they'll continue working to build all the new bases taken in recent months.

From a victory points standpoint, this campaign was advantageous. The Japanese points lead is down to 1.1k: 30.9k to 29.8k. Since the start of this grand campaign in late November '43, the Allies have outscored Japan almost 13k to 2.7k.

[jwolf]

Neutralizing the airfields at Kendari, Ambon, and Sorong (at least temporarily) really saved your butt there. From Dave's point of view I think this is a success in that he stopped you for a time (at least slowed you way down), knocked some valuable ships out of the war for a long time, and did not lose anything himself that cannot be replaced. That sounds like exactly the type of defense the Japanese need at this point of the war.

[Canoerebel]

I think Dave was counting on Sorong's airfield to contribute, because KB wasn't positioned for an 8-hex strike - she was only four hexes from DS's position the day before.

The Allies had already stopped the expansion mode and were transitioning to build-up and back-fill operations. So, from that standpoint, this didn't slow them at all.

It was a moderate Allied victory from a victory points standpoint.

It came pretty close to something awful, though.

[Canoerebel]

5/7/44

Celebes: Good work behind the lines.

[Canoerebel]

5/7/44

Sorong: Keeping Dave's big airfields suppressed will be a key mission in the coming weeks.

Thus far, Dave hasn't organized any strong counterinvasions or landings to deal with Bima, Watampone, Kolaka, Ternate, Morotai (and he has no chance at Timor and Taberfane). I don't know if he'll decide he has to come for these or if he'll be satisfied to treat this as a new MLR. I'll be watching for clues.

[Canoerebel]

5/7/44

Celebes: This hit adds to one scored yesterday, so the DD should be a confirmed kill.

[Canoerebel]

5/7/44

Celebes: This is the first bombardment mission by the IJN in weeks. A clue, perhaps, that Dave considers Ternate a real issue. The Allies landed 200+ AV a few days ago, but only 5k supply. It'll be pretty strong, and I think the Allies can successfully defend the base if the Japanese come for it.

[Canoerebel]

5/7/44

Celebes: Heavy sub warfare during the day. The enemy subs appear to be one day behind DS, including heavily damaged CV Intrepid. There's a chance Dave won't send them into the Arafura Sea, which he long ago withdrew from. There's a chance he'll send them, hoping to pick off cripples.

[Canoerebel]

5/7/44

Celebes: The rearguard under attack.

[Crackaces]

Just a couple of thoughts ..

This is a stock scenario #2 .. not a DBB off shoot .. I would propose this has many ramifications. But one for sure .. the refineries are producing supply, where as in the DBB scenarios supply is not produced and the IJ have to ship it ... There should be the supplies in the area (and fuel) to support the IJ offensive. Now that brings up the question ..

the Allies have more stuff than the IJ. The IJ might score some moral victories but unless they seize the initiative ... they lose a straight up war of attrition. If you think about the whole Timor Sea campaign the IJ have lost 2 CV's (and more) they can ill afford to lose and have lost the use of main ports on Java . The current Allied position is one of great leverage ..

One thing that struck me was the damage inflected at Hong Kong .. were these ships taking stuff to the Home Islands or bringing stuff to China for an offense here?

[Canoerebel]

5/7/44

Celebes: The big picture.

[Canoerebel]

5/7/44

Intel Screen: Japanese lead just nudged below the 1,000-point threshold.

All the categories look pretty good, except Army Losses. That's typical and usually evens out later in the game, when Japanese armies get trapped and destroyed on big land masses like Luzon, Formosa or China.

As noted yesterday, in my game with John III, the score was tied on August 2, 1945 at 56k each. Here the score may be tied sometime in May 1945, possibly around 31k. "It's the denominator, stupid."

[HansBolter]

Do you really think it will take a year to flip 800 points?

Think you probably meant May 1944.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I meant this month (May '44).