Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[tarkalak]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

In India, a large smattering of transports seem headed for Ceylon. xAKLs, everything...extraction?
...

Sub attack near Little Andaman at 41,60

Japanese Ships
xAKL Fukkai Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
...

Oh, no. Confort womens transport sunk. Japan-mens morare hits a new row. [:(]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: tarkalak

ORIGINAL: Anachro

In India, a large smattering of transports seem headed for Ceylon. xAKLs, everything...extraction?
...

Sub attack near Little Andaman at 41,60

Japanese Ships
xAKL Fukkai Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage
...

Oh, no. Confort womens transport sunk. Japan-mens morare hits a new row. [:(]

[:D]
And DD Urakaze was sunk too, so they lost their VD treatment ship ... [;)]

[Anachro]

May 16th, 1943

A benign turn. John said it's "not what he was expecting," whatever that means. I night strike Trincomalee and hit transports and patrol boats in port. However I had set DBs and such to a range for hitting a surface TF sitting at Jaffna, but it moves away. The good thing is so far both my DDs from the last turn are still operational. The lightly damaged Nestor makes it back to Colombo and even puts a shell into an enemy vessel. The more seriously damaged Van Galen doesn't get touched at all and, even better, is not spotted.



In the South Pacific, Port Moresby falls to 1 fort and the fighting strength of the division there is pretty much exhausted.

Ground combat at Port Moresby (98,130)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 38855 troops, 613 guns, 624 vehicles, Assault Value = 1120

Defending force 12668 troops, 113 guns, 60 vehicles, Assault Value = 165

Allied adjusted assault: 216

Japanese adjusted defense: 83

Allied assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 2)

Allied Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2067 casualties reported
Squads: 12 destroyed, 103 disabled
Non Combat: 54 destroyed, 71 disabled
Engineers: 14 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 16 (9 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 10 (6 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
313 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 20 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled

[Anachro]

SIG INT REPORT FOR May 16, 43

2/19th Ind Com Engineer Regiment is loaded on xAK Yamafuku Maru moving to Port Blair.
Mito JAAF Base Force is located at Chiba(114,61).
80th JAAF AF Bn is located at Ndeni(120,143).
53rd JAAF AF Bn is located at Mutankiang(111,42).
2nd JAAF AF Bn is located at Nagoya(111,60).
Radio transmissions detected at Ulak Island (160,53).
29/2nd Division is loaded on a Yusen A Cargo class xAK moving to Port Blair.
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at 126,126. <----- I have noticed this the past few turns; seems like John is moving a big convoy around the Gilberts and Marshalls.
Radio transmissions detected at Mukden (104,42).
177th JAAF AF Bn is located at Sapporo(120,51).
Radio transmissions detected at Tandjoengbalai (47,78).
49th JAAF AF Bn is located at Wakkanai(122,48).
Radio transmissions detected at 34,46.
2nd RTA/A Division is located at Meiktila(58,47).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at 34,46.
41st/C Division is located at Singapore(50,84).
Radio transmissions detected at Katherine (76,128).
15th Ship Engineer Regiment is located at Balikpapan(64,97).
Radio transmissions detected at Sabang (44,70).
10th RF Gun Battalion is located at Sabang(44,70).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Singapore (50,84).
33rd/A Division is located at Singapore(50,84).
40th/A Division is planning for an attack on Chungking.
1st Air Army is located at Bihoro(123,51).
Radio transmissions detected at Diego Garcia (11,62).
26th Field Artillery Regiment is located at Keijo(103,50).
6477 men are based at Kanko (105,47).
53rd Division is located at Tinian(108,94).

[Anachro]

Here's a special project of mine. John has pretty much shifted to a quiet China mode and has left it untouched for a LONG time. He might try to take Chungking soon enough though; we'll see. I still hold Kunming and have been slowly extracting units from there by air as I buy them out to rebuild and reinforce in India. This is a small example of that with more on the way.

[JohnDillworth]

One wonders if John has discerned he is in a bit of a pickle and has to bring the KB back to extract his over-extended posterior from Ceylon?

[Anachro]

I'm pretty sure he's extracting his forces from Ceylon or trying to, but its amazing he has so many front-line carriers there. So far my subs have seen CVs Amagi and Akagi (one hit, one dud, one miss), and there are more than that. This gives me local superiority in the South Pacific with whatever else he has; and I have advantages of LBA just like he does in this area. Port Moresby will fall next turn. The big caveat is John has Georges now, which I think are CV capable, as well as a good LBA fighter.

[Crackaces]

Interesting that you are still getting disabled squads at PM. Soon the disabled will be destroyed. One thing about Ceylon I find interesting, you have turned this into a focal area where you can exchange ship losses and trim the IJN. Though subs have yet to be effective vs the CV’s it only takes once. Like running a red light, one can get away with it until nailed by a cement truck. The question for the IJN is at what risk do you take to gain a benefit? Right now I am seeing the IJN divided by two theaters and in a war of attrition not so good for the future ...

[;)]

[JohnDillworth]

Not really sure what the point was in staying in Ceylon so long. The IJN took a big bite out of the British Fleet but took some significant losses themselves. Certainly not 2:1 in the IJN's favor and probably not even 1.5:1.......and for what? At the end of the day Anachro will hold the field of battle and Japan may lose a good number of troops. All the while the IJN was stuck fighting for a peice of real estate they could not hold while other more important real estate changed hands. John should have left months ago and now fights to save face.

[BBfanboy]

No troop losses yet on those transports you bombed at Trincomalee?

[Anachro]

The transports were in Port so can't have loaded troops. This turn the convoys moved east, so I'm guessing some of his troops might have left. I cannot tell.

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

All the while the IJN was stuck fighting for a peice of real estate they could not hold while other more important real estate changed hands. John should have left months ago and now fights to save face.

I can only think John wanted to hold onto Ceylon to make my path of invasion towards Burma/Malaya more complex. I wanted to secure Ceylon because it simplified that prospect and really opens up the coasts of the DEI, Malaya, and Burma to invasion while simplifying my LoC/LoS. Given the assets he was prepared to commit, he stood a very good chance of holding it had I not taken Colombo. However, I was pretty crafty (which I didn't show in the AAR really) in that I timed a landing and para drop when he had brought most of his forces (and reinforcements) back to Trincomalee for some reason. This created a window where the garrison of Colombo was rather small. Once I took it, I had a foothold that would be very tough for him to overcome if I stuck around. At that point, the commitment of forces is questionable.

As you say, a 1.5:1 ratio is fine for me (would have been very good without my carrier losses); I am very happy wearing down John's BB/BC/CBs and taking a chunk of his CAs and DDs at the expense of the British fleet and slow battleships.

I should note, a good chunk of British BBs are still intact. They have simply suffered damage and will require time in port. BB Prince of Wales and BB Revenge are about to head offmap for repair at Capetown:



BB Queen Elizabeth was one point at 96 float damage from Japanese DD torpedoes, but thankfully this happened in Colombo's hex and she was able to go into port for emergency repairs that brought flotation down to 55 major float damage. BB Warspite, the old horse, is in goods shape and has 6 days of repairs to get to no damage so she can see service again. Both these ships are repairing at Trivandrum, though BB QE will be moved soon. CLAA Argonaut is also at Trivandrum at full health.



The situation at Bombay, two more CLs (Caradoc and Mauritius) are on their way up from Trivandrum.




Lastly, this is on it way to Capetown. Unfortunately, CL Tromp took a torpedo from a sub off Australia's western coast and will require repair in port at CT.



And finally, Colombo:

[Anachro]

Regarding the value of Port Moresby, Milne Bay, and the others (though I still want to get Horn to make this truly the case), is that it opens up two major pathways for further expansion.



First, I can push directly towards Darwin and the DEI through the Celebes Strait. This is a direct path to push directly into the DEI and threaten John's oil supply. The disadvantage here is the overlapping Japanese airfields and interior lines of LoC, narrow passages, etc. that make it a dangerous place to operate, especially in the face of strong Japanese carriers and surface forces. Moreover, John seems to be retrenching and allocating his forces to cover the passage through the Torres Strait and Arafura Sea and I expect this is where he is really preparing to cause pain.

Second, the areas beyond John's outward line of defense around PM, Guadalcanal, etc. are ripe for moving on and taking. The places beyond New Britain especially are exposed: Manus, northeast New Guinea, etc. Going this route can isolate and cutoff his garrisons while again, threatening multiple areas: the DEI, the Philippines, even the Marianas. In this way, John is forces to stretch his forces and army units over a very wide area, which leaves him exposed.

While this is going on, John is clearly trying to bring some units back from the periphery, which opens up areas to attack that can improve my LoC/LoS, such as the Marshalls and parts of the Solomons. And then there are other areas: Malaya and Burma from India, the Aleutians, etc... John can't be everywhere at once. Concentration of my forces for each effort is key.

[BBfanboy]

I think Path 2 should be your main focus but with some landings along Path 1 to keep John guessing for a while. Maybe send a bombardment TF to hit Timor once in a while, when you can arrange LRCAP for it.

[Uncivil Engineer]

I agree with BBfanboy about Path 2. Keep in mind when island hopping you MUST have an island to hop to. Plenty of bases along path 2, not so much along path 1.

[Anachro]

May 17th, 1943

It would appear the battle for Ceylon is over and cleanup effort begins. Communications from Japanese command wonder at the lack of a bloodbath against his transports, but I wonder what John thinks we could have done given damage to our navy + his carriers providing cover. Troops have evacuated Ceylon and we should take the remaining bases shortly. Colombo and Trincomalee combined deny 1075 victory points to the Japanese. John still has 17k men at Koggala and he appears to be moving north with some. He doesn't know I have a third division at Colombo with another on the way.



In Guinea, Port Moresby falls today with over 6k Japanese troops either captured or killed. Despite ~13,000 Japanese troops or thereabouts being garrisoned at Moresby, the battle is relatively bloodless for Allied forces, which have significant material, firepower, and numerical superiority. In other action, DDs protecting my carriers force a sub to the surface and sink it.

[Anachro]

At the moment, we have forces planning all around Guinea, both in path one and path two. Most likely, we will make it appear we intend to push through path one (indeed, I might try for Horn Island), with the eventual main thrust being up and deep around Manus once forces are ready.

[Anachro]

Relevant Sigint

Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at 121,122.
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at 121,122.
90th/C Division is located at Horn Island(91,128).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at 121,122.
2/4th Ind Com Engineer Regiment is loaded on a Japanese TK moving to Port Blair.

A lot of stuff moving around south of the Marshalls, seems to be moving in a direction away from the Gilbert's and towards Rabaul or perhaps Manus. A division or part is at Horn. Port Blair is reinforced now that Ceylon is lost and the way to an amphibious invasion of Malaya, etc. is opened.

[BBfanboy]

Congrats on your progress in both theatres!
Ceylon soon to be retaken by the Allies and the people placed under new subjuga ... ummm .... administration! [;)]

Careful with shortcuts in place names - some of your ship captains sent to Guinea may go looking for Port Moresby in Africa!

[Crackaces]

The initiative has shifted May 1943! With Ceylon and PM in Allied hands, This is all very good news. I suspect the IJ will not appreciate this at all and will attempt to regain the offensive initiative somewhere. I am not familiar at all with this modification. What does the Army start with? How does the loss of the Army units impact the over all OOB? One strategic thing I am seeing is that the IJN are running around burning fuel. Though the IJ have the Dutch Indies for fuel — this is not an unlimited resource in terms of production time and time to load tankers to Japan. This is a grand opportunity of sorts to let the IJN destroy the IJ economy through a thousand paper cuts. Maybe draw the IJ into a diversionary contest in the Marshals?