Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

7/4/42
 
CenPac:  The fox managed to slip into the henhouse to cause havoc.  CL Jintsu TF somehow evaded two Allied combat TFs and savaged two transport TFs - one carrying Forward Air CenPac to Tarawa, the second an empty TF retiring to Pearl Harbor.  The Allies lost a handful of xAP and xAK plus two escorting DD.  Very embarrassing.  Fortunately, one xAK carrying part of the HQ unit made it to Tarawa unscathed and should unload tonight.
 
SoPac:  Allied SBDs at Pago Pago exacted revenge, sortying against a variety of enemy transports SW of the island.  Included amongst the victims confirmed sunk was a big AMC (25 points) with a second likely to go under.  I think these big and efficient troop carriers are rarities that Japan will miss greatly when and if the time comes to invade Sumatra.
 
DEI:  Remarkably quiet at the moment.  A big troop transport TF arrives at Cocos tonight, carrying a Port Service unit, Marine raider battalion, and artillery.

[Canoerebel]

7/5/42
 
Japanese Carriers Flooding the Pacific?
 
CenPac:  Patrols report a Japanese CV TF including 3 CV and a CVE (15 fighters 28 bombers, 21 auxillary) well to the NE of Tarawa.  This is dangerous waters - the Allies have a variety of transports (empty and loaded), combat ships and carriers in the general area.  Combat ships and carriers are distant enough to evade, but some transports are likely to catch it.  I'll keep CV Wasp in on the periphery just in case this proves to be a Mini-KB that uses up alot of sorties or loses alot of aircraft to flak.
 
SoPac:  The other CV TF (believed to consist of Hiyo and Junyo) is down at Nadi.
 
Das Darf Nicht Var Sein Deja Vu?:  Wouldn't it be criminally negligent for Japan to commit carriers to the Pacific when Sumatra is sitting there in Allied hands?  Obviously, this would mean much more time bought for Sumatra, and this at a time when the Allies are preparing both to reinforce and to put together new offensive options.  The continued heavy IJ interest in CenPac suggests that Steve might be so focused on Tarawa that he's willing to commit to a major, lengthy offensive to reinvade and reclaim.  I can't contest the KB there, so in all likelihood I'll send Wasp up to NoPac to lend a hand there.
 
DEI:  Major reinforcements coming ashore at Cocos Island.

[String]

Have you calculcated how long the Japanese can run their industry without Palembang?

[paullus99]

It has been discussed earlier in the thread & I believe the consensus was "it depends." It could make for a very interesting 1944 - if this game gets that far (but I doubt it will) - but doesn't directly effect things in the near term.

What may really come back and bite him in the ass is fuel - he's running ships all around the Pacific (and DEI) with very little to show for it at this time. Of course, he has suffered some significant naval losses thus far, but most of his fleet is still running around & I'm not sure how much longer he'll be able to continue these large scale deployments without regular shipments of fuel coming in from the DEI - and if he doesn't secure Sumatra (at all) - CR is going to be able to start bombing campaign against any refineries or oil fields in range of his fortress.

If Chaz is sending 1/3 of his carrier strength into the Pacific & does make a move on Sumatra with the remainder, it would be a golden opportunity for CR to pounce with his entire carrier strength and destroy him utterly.

[Panther Bait]

It's probably one thing to not have Palembang. It's something completely different to allow the Allies to fortify Sumatra to the extent that it can support offensive operations into the rest of the SRA, whether that is bombing missions or invasions.

Mike

[Canoerebel]

7/6/42
 
Panther Bait, I agree.  That's the real crux of the problem for Japan.
 
CenPac:  No sign of the IJ CV TF, which is good as I don't particularly wish to lose any more merchant ships in this theater.  A USN combat TF flagged by CL Trenton gets some revenge over at Nauru Island by sinking a DD and xAK and roughing up another five or six xAK.  From a garrison and supply standpoint, the Allies are in good shape at Ocean Island, Tarawa and Baker.  Tabituea is weakly garrisoned and Makin is both weak and low on supply.  The Allies will be landing some USAAF fighters at Canton Island in a day or two.  With these elements in place, and under the belief that the Allies don't need to try to counter a major Japanese naval presence in this region, I'll be sending Wasp north to NoPac to help with the pending resupply/reinforcement missions in the Kuriles (set for August).  I'll leave in CenPac a combat TF or two, perhaps including a CA and BB Warspite.
 
SoPac:  Hiyo/Junyo are heading back towards Pago Pago.  Steve may land at one of the islands nearby (like Savaii or Wallis), something he should have done long ago. 
 
DEI:  Transports finish unloading at Cocos, bringing AV up to 160 (a Marine regiment on the way from Capetown will then boost that to 300).  Oosthaven forts to 6.60.  Palembang to 7.09.  No sign of enemy carriers.

[Canoerebel]

7/7/42
 
A massive sea battle at Oosthaven goes very badly (very, very badly) for the Allies.  This will have interesting repurcussions on multiple levels, but before I get into that, I'll give you pertinent excerpts from the combat report.  Bear in mind that Oosthaven is a strongly held Allied base with a CAP of 600+ fighters and many CD guns.  Seeing the approaching combat TF, I reconfigured my combat ships there this turn - consolidating three combat TFs into two stronger TFs under the command of officers with very good ratings.  It wasn't enough....

Round One:
 
Night Time Surface Combat, near Oosthaven at 48,96, Range 8,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
     BB Kirishima
     BB Fuso, Shell hits 4
     CA Maya, Shell hits 2
     CA Haguro
     CA Mogami
     CA Mikuma
     CA Suzuya, Shell hits 3,  on fire
     CL Sendai
     CL Naka, Shell hits 2
     CL Yura
     CL Abukuma
     DD Tokitsukaze
     DD Hagikaze
     DD Asashio
     DD Natsugumo
     DD Yudachi
     DD Hibiki
     DD Yugiri
     DD Yayoi
     DD Nokaze

Allied Ships
     BB Mississippi, Shell hits 28, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
     BB Resolution, Shell hits 18, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CA Dorsetshire, Shell hits 4,  on fire
     CL Newcastle, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
     CLAA Van Heemskerck, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
     DD Clark, Shell hits 1
     DD Stuart
     DD Voyager, Shell hits 1
     DD Stronghold
     DD Tenedos
     DD Norman, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Round Two:
 
Japanese Ships
     BB Kirishima
     BB Fuso, Shell hits 26,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CA Maya
     CA Haguro
     CA Mogami
     CA Mikuma
     CA Suzuya, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CL Sendai, Shell hits 1
     CL Naka
     CL Yura
     CL Abukuma
     DD Tokitsukaze
     DD Hagikaze
     DD Asashio, Shell hits 1,  on fire
     DD Natsugumo
     DD Yudachi
     DD Hibiki
     DD Yugiri
     DD Yayoi
     DD Nokaze

Allied Ships
     BB Prince of Wales, Shell hits 25, Torpedo hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CA Exeter, Shell hits 1
     CL De Ruyter
     CL Adelaide, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
     CL Enterprise, Shell hits 2,  on fire
     CL Dauntless, Shell hits 1
     DD Stewart, Shell hits 7,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     DD Arrow
     DD Electra, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
     DD Jupiter, Shell hits 1

Round Three (IJ ships expend more ordinance):

Japanese Ships
     BB Kirishima
     CA Haguro
     CA Mogami
     CA Mikuma
     CL Sendai
     CL Naka
     CL Yura
     CL Abukuma
     DD Tokitsukaze
     DD Hagikaze
     DD Asashio,  on fire
     DD Natsugumo
     DD Yudachi
     DD Hibiki
     DD Yugiri
     DD Yayoi

Allied Ships
     PT TM-10
     PT TM-11
     PT TM-12
     PT TM-13
     PT TM-14
     PT TM-15, Shell hits 1, and is sunk

Round Four:
 
Japanese Ships
     BB Kirishima, Shell hits 1
     CA Haguro
     CA Mogami
     CA Mikuma
     CL Sendai
     CL Naka
     CL Yura
     CL Abukuma
     DD Tokitsukaze
     DD Hagikaze
     DD Asashio
     DD Natsugumo
     DD Yudachi
     DD Hibiki
     DD Yugiri
     DD Yayoi

Allied Ships
     BB Resolution, Shell hits 24, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
     CA Dorsetshire, Shell hits 8,  on fire
     DD Stronghold, Shell hits 1
     DD Tenedos

Round Five (more IJN ordinance expired, which hurts them later):

Night Naval bombardment of Oosthaven at 48,96 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Allied aircraft
     no flights

Allied aircraft losses
     B-25C Mitchell: 2 destroyed on ground
     P-40E Warhawk: 9 destroyed on ground
     P-39D Airacobra: 3 destroyed on ground
     Hurricane IIb Trop: 1 destroyed on ground
     B-17E Fortress: 1 destroyed on ground
     Kittyhawk IA: 1 destroyed on ground
     Blenheim IV: 1 destroyed on ground
     F4F-4 Wildcat: 3 destroyed on ground
     139WH-3: 1 destroyed on ground
     L-212: 1 destroyed on ground
     L-18 Lodestar: 1 destroyed on ground

65 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
     BB Kirishima
     CA Mikuma, Shell hits 1
     CA Mogami
     CA Haguro
     CL Abukuma
     CL Yura
     CL Naka
     CL Sendai 

Allied ground losses:
     54 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Airbase hits 15
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 67

Round Six:

Japanese Ships
     BB Kirishima, Shell hits 9
     CA Haguro, Shell hits 1
     CA Mogami, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires
     CA Mikuma, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires
     CL Sendai
     CL Naka
     CL Yura, Shell hits 2,  on fire
     CL Abukuma
     DD Tokitsukaze
     DD Hagikaze
     DD Asashio
     DD Natsugumo, Shell hits 1,  on fire
     DD Yudachi
     DD Hibiki, Shell hits 1
     DD Yugiri
     DD Yayoi

Allied Ships
     CA Exeter, Shell hits 26,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CL De Ruyter, Shell hits 1
     CL Dauntless, Shell hits 2
     DD Arrow, Shell hits 17,  heavy fires,  heavy damage

Butcher's Bill:
 
Allied Ships Sunk or Very Badly Damaged: 
 
BB:  Mississippi, Resolution, Prince of Wales
CA:  Exeter
CL:  Newcastle, Adelaide, Van Heemskerk
DD:  Norman Stewart, Electra, Arrow
 
Japanese Ships Sunk or Very Badly Damaged:
 
BB:  Fuso
CA Suzuya (with Mogami and Mikuma afire)
 
Repurcussion Level One:  This is a big naval victory for Japan.

Repurcussion Level Two:  And, yet, Japan suffers further attrition to capital ship lineup.  I think this makes at least four IJN BBs and three CAs (plus the CVL and CVE) sunk in the DEI.  The Allies have now lost four BB and several CA.  So, this IJN victory is perhaps analogous to the British victory at Guildford Courthouse in the American Revolution (the one in which the British commander noted that "another such victory" would ruin him). Japan can't afford to lose any capital ships now.

Repurcussion Level Three:  This battle, following closely upon the recent battle in which another IJN BB was sunk at Oosthaven, leaves the Allies very short of capital ships in the DEI at the moment.  I have one BB at Cocos Island and a separate TF flagged by CA Salt Lake City.  The ships damaged in that previous action just made Colombo and will need anywhere from a few days to a few weeks in the yards.  In three weeks, the Allies will be able to put alot more power on point, but until then the Japanese have a window in which they can assert naval dominance in the DEI.  Will Steve strike?  Ordinarily, I'd say no.  But he may be emboldened by this victory.  On the other hand, he's now going to lament having so many battleships (Yamato and others) committed to Little Vietnam (Pago Pago).

Repurcussion Level Four:  The Allies are short of battleships in the DEI.  At one time we could put eight on point.  Now we've lost four (New Mexico was lost in the recent battle) plus Ramillies has been at Capetown for months, with another 45 days to go.  We still have three, though two need some yard time.  I'm probably going to send North Carolina and Warspite this way from CenPac.  That will leave me Pennsylvania in NoPac and four BBs in West Coast shipyards - all four of them coming back online over the next four to six weeks. 

[obvert]

I'd say this is an Allied victory, in spite of the losses. The BBs are hard to lose but the other ships are easily replaceable. For Japan however, any BB or CA lost is a major problem. There are no more on the way, and those injured here will be repairing for a month or more.

With half of the IJN concentrated in the Pacific, this means it will take just that much longer to mount any kind of real threat to Sumatra. His window is getting hobbit sized, although not so round and inviting as it once was. Keep throwing steel in his way and in a few months there will be no chance to get on that island short of an airlift, which Japan is not really capable of logistically supporting.

[DOCUP]

With the way Chez has played so far do you think he will try to exploit your weakness in DEI?  Does he have the troops ready to go in?  Where are your carriers? IMHO this battle was a tactical draw but strategic your victory.  From what I've read of Chez in this AAr he will not try to exploit the situation. 
 
doc

[Canoerebel]

The Allied carriers (all but Wasp and Long Island) are stationed just to the west of Cocos Island (IE, SSW from Oosthaven perhaps 10-15 hexes).
 
I don't think Steve is particularly ready with troops and invasion ships - just my impression.  More importantly, I think he'll now want to retrieve some of his other battlewagons from the Pacific (huge error on his part to have sent them to the Pacific).  So, my guess is that an invasion of Sumatra isn't imminent.  Nevertheless, I'll be "on guard" assuming that it could come at any moment.
 
I've got to run errands for awhile, but more about this turn and the situation later today.

[Nemo121]

DOCUP: No, No, CR ansered about the CVs.


Dan,
The force mix of your SC TFs is really sub-optimal. Can I ask what process you have for deciding on force mixes and what's your prioritisation for technical/tactical characteristics? From the force mix you have it looks like the Mississipi would be very hamstrung in achieving its full performance. Also any thoughts on improving your force mix/TF composition based on his TF composition for the next round?

[Canoerebel]

Nemo, I'm no analyst behind the numbers that make things work in the game.  Thus, I tend to apply my intuition (this looks good/this seems reasonable).  Then, when I get my fanny whacked a time or two, I reach the point where I realize, "Hmmm, if I'm going to play this game, I need to figure out a better way of doing this.  Pure intuition doesn't seem to be getting me very far."
 
In this instance, the Allies had recently prevailed in a major naval battle at Oosthaven, sinking one IJN BB and badly damaging another.  This forced me to withdraw most of my combat ships to rearm or repair at Colombo.  This left me with a smaller mix of ships.  I divided them into two TFs, each with BB (or two), some cruisers, and some destroyers.  The mix looked decent to me, so I made sure each had good commanders.
 
I have absolutely no idea what you're referring to in the way of Mississippi being not optimally designed to do well under the circumstances.  But I am prepared to learn if you are prepared to teach. 

[Cribtop]

Dan,

One guess I would hazard regarding Nemo's post is TF speed. Did other ships slow down the Mississippi?

Must've been one long replay. Shame you lost a BB from a Rebel state. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

Mississippi is a slow ship, so she was the one slowing down the others.
 
I did get a detailed analysis from Nemo.  He was very kind to share his thoughts with me.  I think I can boil it down by saying I goofed on the TF composition and by cobbling together such a wide variety of ships and nationalities.  In short, it's better to have "homogoneous" TFs (CLs with similar weapons and ranges as opposed to a wide variety).  Also, it might have been better to lump my BBs into one TF and to also have a four-DD TF or two hanging about.
 
I've just sent the turn back to Steve.  Some important observations:
 
1.  At present, the remaining four Allied BBs that began in the DEI are all in shipyards (there isn't one at Cocos Island as I previously stated).  Ramillies at Capetown is 75 days from ready.  Royal Soveriegn at Colombo is about the same.  Repulse and another R-Class will be ready in two weeks or less.  That will give me two BBs in theater pretty quickly.
 
2.  All I have in the way of capital ships in the Oosthaven area right now are CAs Salt Lake City and Chester.  Should it become vital to fight a surface battle in the next few weeks, I would consider stripping my carrier TFs of cruisers and some destroyers and committing them (with the carriers huddled together under the protection of destroyers somewhere safe).  Under that scenario, I would strip carrier air and send them to land bases.
 
3.  Indomitable is scheduled for withdrawal in 14 days.  Ent and York need yard and upgrade time.  Accordingly, I have stripped the two American carriers of aircraft (sent to Sumatra).  All three carriers have combined into one TF and will retire to Colombo.  The remaining three American carriers and several RN carriers are on station near Cocos Island.
 
4.  BBs Warspite and North Carolina, CAs New Orleans and Pensacola, will proceed from the Canton Island area to Tahiti to refuel, then to Australia, then to the DEI.  ETA three weeks.
 
5.  CV Wasp, currently near Christmas Island (Pacific) will head north in the general direction of the West Coast, where it will link up with BB Arizona (set to complete repairs at San Fran in two weeks).  From there it will likely go to NoPac.
 
6.  I think Steve pulled two CAs that had been operating in NoPac (Suzuya and one other) and committed them in this late action.  After viewing the replay and then the turn file, I think there's a good chance Fuso and Suzuya went under, with Mikuma and Mogami suffering enough damage to require serious yard time.  Steve will probably have to recall ships currently stationed in the Pacific.  Kongo, which ate a torp in the Andaman Sea battle in April, should be close to ready for battle. Hiei, which took some damage at Pago Pago a few weeks ago, also needed a bit of yard time.  It should be ready soon, though it had a long way to go from Pago Pago to a shipyard.
 
7.  Steve possibly has a window to strike, but my bet is that he won't be able to pull all the pieces together before Renown and the R-Class BB return to theater.

[paullus99]

Don't forget the possibility, should it arise, to use at least some of your carriers to attempt to finish off any cripples. If Chaz doesn't realize that your entire main carrier force is close by, he may under-commit in the air & give you an opening for a decisive strike.

[Cribtop]

Shows what I know about the Allied BBs. Except for North Carolina, Iowa and Missouri, I don't know which are the fast modern BBs and which aren't.

[vettim89]

BB Prince of Wales, Shell hits 25, Torpedo hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
CA Exeter, Shell hits 1
CL De Ruyter
CL Adelaide, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CL Enterprise, Shell hits 2, on fire
CL Dauntless, Shell hits 1
DD Stewart, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Arrow
DD Electra, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
DD Jupiter, Shell hits 1

Not to be too critical Dan, but why did you have that old tub in with much faser ships?

[paulkenny]

I would call this a major Japanese victory, 3 shells are not going to take Mogami and Mikuma out for very long and Fuso probably didnt sink, it probably got broken out escorted back.  I would go after her with your aviation the next couple of days and perhaps scrape up a few destroyers to look for her if she is limping along.  You also lost 24 airplanes (4% of your force) a respectable amount of planes destroyed.  It sounds like you are sticking around for the time being to continue the fight here including your carriers?  Dont get too aggressive, if you dont know where KB is he could easily win a battle of attrition quite quickly.  It remains to be seen whether he can exploit the victory.

[paulkenny]

BTW it looks like he really used his Long Lance to good execution

[Canoerebel]

7/8/42
 
A very successful day for the Allies turns a Tactical Defeat into a Tactical Draw or Victory, and a Strategic Victory into a Decisive Strategic Victory.

DEI:  After yesterday's big engagement, the Allies shifted the aircraft from Ent and York to Sumatra (except for the fighters, which had legs only to reach Cocos Island) while those two ships and Indomitable retire to Colombo.  Then the Allies set all divebombers and most two-engine bombers to range five, with escorts similarly ranged (I wanted to minimize the chances they would go too far astray and blunder into a big CAP trap over Semereng or vicinity).  I was hoping my aircraft might capatured a crippled Fuso or Suzuya, or perhaps some destroyers shown lingering near Oosthaven after the battle.  The fighters sortied in number to overwhelm Japanese LRCAP of 15 Zeroes, and then the bombers sortied in strength, getting more than I could have hoped for:

Strike One:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Kalidjati at 51,99

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 28 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
     A6M2 Zero x 5 

Allied aircraft
     F4F-4 Wildcat x 17
     SBD-3 Dauntless x 31 

Japanese aircraft losses
     A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
     SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
     DD Yugiri, Bomb hits 1,  on fire,  heavy damage
     CA Mikuma, Bomb hits 3,  on fire,  heavy damage
     CL Yura, Bomb hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CA Mogami, Bomb hits 3,  on fire,  heavy damage
     DD Asashio, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage

Strike Two:
 
Morning Air attack on TF, near Kalidjati at 51,99

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 32 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes 

Allied aircraft
     SBD-3 Dauntless x 18 

Allied aircraft losses
     SBD-3 Dauntless: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
     DD Yugiri, Bomb hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CA Mogami, Bomb hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CL Yura,  heavy fires,  heavy damage

Strike Three:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kalidjati at 51,99

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 26 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes 

Allied aircraft
     SBD-3 Dauntless x 17 

Allied aircraft losses
     SBD-3 Dauntless: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
     CL Yura, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
     DD Asashio, Bomb hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
     CA Mikuma,  heavy fires,  heavy damage

Impact:  This changes the complexion of yesterday's battle entirely.  Now the totals of ships sunk or heavily damaged changes to:

Allies:         BB 3; CA 1; CL 3; DD 4.
Japanese:   BB 1; CA 3; CL 1; DD 2.

Heavy Fires/Heavy Damage:  A report of "heavy fires/heavy damage" usually means a ship is mortally stricken.  There may be rare exceptions, but at a minimum that vessel is out of the war for a very long time.

Note to Chez (when he reads this "some day"):  In his email, Chez asked if I had transferred "all" my carrier aircraft to Sumatra.  He may be muttering to himself about this tactic.  Just for the record, strike squadrons from two American carriers came to Sumatra this turn because both ships require yard time and have just been sent back to Colombo.  Chez knew that the Oosthaven is a level nine airfield (with large backup fields at Palembang and Benkolen), so obviously the Allies were going to utilize them as best they could.  Also, none of the Allied two-engine bombers (lots of Dutch B-25s and lesser aircraft) sortied.