Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

11/1/44

Burma: Nearly 200,000 Japanese troops are retreating, in two groups. Allied bombers focus on the eastern group, in open terrain. This is one of many strikes today, and also one of the largest. Overall, the enemy stack is roughed up but the results definitely aren't spectacular.

The objective is also to slow the enemy stack, allowing Allied units (at least armor and artillery) to catch up and attack.

[Canoerebel]

11/1/44

Burma: The strikes include a variety of Chinese bombers mixed in with the Western Allied air forces.

[Canoerebel]

11/1/44

Burma: Erik didn't put up CAP. I thought he might, but he knew I'd expect it. Strong sweeps preceded the raids.

Also, if he diverts good fighters to Burma from the Hokkaido/Kuriles front, that makes my job up there that much easier.

[Canoerebel]

11/1/44

Ketoi: Weather postpones Allied bombing missions until the afternoon phase. There are a number of strikes. This is the largest and most effective. The raids don't inflict much damage on the day.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

11/1/44

Ketoi: My experience has been that the presence of a 100%-prepped amphib force HQ allows even poorly-prepped units to come ashore in good condition, always with low fatigue/disruption and measurable but acceptable disablements. This landing looks rougher than I had expected. As the day progresses, with additional landings, the results are similar. I'm positive the amphib force HQ TF is present in the hex, yet these results make me wonder. I'll check that when I open the turn file, and report back.

I think weather also plays a role. Imagine trying to go down scramble nets into a Higgins boat bobbing like a cork, and smashing into the side of the ship, then sliding away ten feet. Severe storms are like that!

[Canoerebel]

11/1/44

Ketoi: As intended, the Allied amphibious landings trigger an auto-bombardment by the Japanese. Hey, Japanese AV looks markedly lower today. This is the best news I've seen thus far.

[Canoerebel]

11/1/44

Ketoi: Allied bombardment sends 71st Div. AV down another 20 points. Pretty effective.

I have a big combat engineer unit coming in tomorrow or the day after. I'll have to decide whether to attack tomorrow, before it's available, or what the extra turn or two. The enemy defenses appear fragile but the adjusted AV might strong enough to cause problems.

The combat engineering unit is 100% prepped for Paramushiro, so this will be a big test of my theories.

[jwolf]

It does appear that Ketoi will fall soon. That's great news! [:)]

[Canoerebel]

11/1/44

Ketoi: 12th NZ Brigade lands at 42% prep with an 100%-prepped amphib force HQ in the hex. As usual, disruption and fatigue are minimal. But disablements are considerably more than I've seen in the past - I would categorize these as moderate.

My amphib force HQ has 55% disruption now, having been at sea for several weeks to support the various landings at Ketoi. My gut feeling is that disruption doesn't impact the performance of an AFHQ, but I don't know for certain. Any of you gents ever tested that?

The AFHQ will remain in the hex to land the big combat engineer unit. Then I may send it back to Shikuka to unload and rest. I have more units at Shikuka prepping for Ketoi, but I don't think they'll be needed. The force at hand should be sufficient to take the island.

[jwolf]

Nearly 1/3 of that Kiwi brigade is out of action. Sounds generally consistent with what I would imagine for 42% prep. I hope your AFHQ really does work, but I admit to some skepticism of the amount of magic in that magic bullet.

[Canoerebel]

It seems to work. I landed two US RCT within the past 10 days, both with similar preps, and both with considerably lower disablements. Ditto in my game with John III.

But I will hold my breath a bit with the 0% prepped combat engineer unit.

[Canoerebel]

BB Iowa/New Jersey TF set to bombard tonight, and the big combat engineer TF set to land, involving more LCI(G) bombardments. With that kind of prep in store, the ground troops will attack tomorrow (except one resting division and an armored unit or two).

[jwolf]

But I will hold my breath a bit with the 0% prepped combat engineer unit.

Yikes, I am nervous about this one. Disruption and fatigue usually recover quickly (except malaria effects), but disablements take a long time, at least in my experience. Good luck!

[Canoerebel]

I adjusted orders for the amphib landings and the deliberate attack, adding additional units to the latter. As for the former, I'm only sending in a cadre of the combat HQ unit. I may not need it, if tomorrow's attack goes well, so I'll hold most of the unit back to see. A part of the unit will land so that the LCI(G) gunships will fire and so that enemy artillery will auto-bombard, which might be self-destructive, a bit of a help since that will be just prior to the Allied deliberate attack.

[Canoerebel]

P.S. I am re-reading Titans of the Sea, a circa 1960s history of carrier operations in the Pacific. The passage about the Doolittle Raid included a few paragraphs about the task force encountering the Japanese trawler picket ships. It noted that it took 900+ shells to destroy the ship, as it was frequently concealed between swells. Gamey of the Japanese to do that.

I've read this book perhaps five times in my life, the first time as a young teen. It's pretty good.

[Lecivius]

Yeah, the CO of the Nashville caught purple hell over the gunnery that day. To be fair though, while gunnery was supposed to be the focus of U.S. Navy tactics, not a whole lot of practice was done.

That cost dollars [8|]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Nearly 1/3 of that Kiwi brigade is out of action. Sounds generally consistent with what I would imagine for 42% prep. I hope your AFHQ really does work, but I admit to some skepticism of the amount of magic in that magic bullet.

It's less than I would expect in this particular situation, with lots of Japanese guns ashore. What did the number of coastal guns fired look like? The 2 base forces (including one "special), plus the divisions, and the mixed brigades should all have a bunch of guns capable of firing on landing craft.

Judging from this single data point, it looks like there is a modest positive effect from the HQm on under-prepped units.

[Canoerebel]

I think 231 shore guns fired but there was only one hit - and a minor one at that. I believe Erik's shore guns are badly fatigued/disrupted and possibly disabled. And supply is an issue too.

But bear this in mind: the two US RCT that came ashore previously faced more potent shore gun fire and incurred fewer disablements. At this point, I'm definitely willing to bring in poorly prepped units if an amphib force HQ is present, if the reinforcements are "vital," and if those units aren't needed elsewhere in the short or short-medium term.

[Canoerebel]

11/1/44

NoPac: The bigger picture.

[CaptBeefheart]

November 1? Arctic Winter Effect (or whatever it's called)? That has a negative effect on amphibious invasions in the Aleutians and Kuriles, right? I'm at the office so no access to the manual. Maybe that explains the disablements on the Kiwi brigade.

Cheers,
CC