Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy, well said.  In fact, were we admirals meeting with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the President, I think a light simultaneously went on in the heads of FDR and Admiral King:  "Hey, we need to replace stodgy old Canoerbel with this bright and bold Chickenboy.  Old Canoe has his uses, but he's worn out by all the casualties he's taken and the thousands of letters and telegram's he's had to send to survivors back home."
 
Okay, I'll give the map a new look to see if I, by shaking my stubbornly held DEI-centric views, can see any opportunity to suddenly shift a vast amount of Allied power to Burma/Thailand or possible CenPac (I prefer Burma/Thailand, but I'll at least look elsewhere).
 
If I think it's worth doing, I'll probably take the fleet carriers and leave the CVE behind to deal with the DEI.

[Canoerebel]

Two important P.S.

1)  I think the Allies could accomplish as much in the DEI using just the CVEs as the entire carrier fleet if Miller had to use his carriers elsewhere.

2)  But at the moment all available Allied troops are at forward bases - mainly Kendari, Boela, Ternate, Morotai and Manado.  (I had just stripped Darwin to feed the Kendari offensive).  So a move on Burma/Thailand is complicated/slowed by the need to retrieve troops and/or await the two US Infantry divisions currently enroute from West Coast.  The most easily retrievable contingent is the group at Ternate prepped for Davao.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Two important P.S.

1)  I think the Allies could accomplish as much in the DEI using just the CVEs as the entire carrier fleet if Miller had to use his carriers elsewhere.

I agree. Your CVEs can cover landings. Caveat: They're Kamikaze bait. You can probably find other (better?) blue seas applications for your fleet CVs. They're a bit exposed in such constricted waters around the Celebes anyways, particularly if you're concerned about their 'react' settings.

[crsutton]

I know you are constrained by your prior ship losses but this is telling me that the Allies (under normal circumstances) must be attacking on two fronts. The Central Pacific needs to be attacked as it is the best place to defeat the Japanese fleet. It looks as though forcing a major battle in the CenPac area gives the Allies the best change to exchange ships on a equal footing. The other benefit is the lack of decent ports for damaged ships to flee to.

[Chickenboy]

I'm wondering about CentPac vs. SE Asian fronts too. In one, you have a firm and irreversible lodgement. On the other, you will be away from LBA subject to naval air and IJAAF Marianas-based interdiction until you can overstack the one target island a/f in the chain that you choose to attack. Capturing, for example, Guam could be a very painful exercise. I think the opportunity cost to drive East and South from SE Asia is considerably lower.

However, once captured, the Marianas provide an immediate strategic bombing dividend. Canoerebel indicated that he's getting some B-29s now too. Miller would have to rebase some of his LBA fighter forces back on the home islands to defend himself. This could weaken him in the DEI and elsewhere.

Well, Canoerebel, you're in the Admiral (hot) seat. Your undeservedly kind comments earlier don't take into account how easy it is to be an armchair general like me. Hard decisions, dude, but I'll enjoy the show either way...

ETA: crsutton: I think Canoerebel *has* two legitimate fronts right now: Southern DEI and SE Asia. I think you're asking for a THIRD offensive front to be opened, aren't you?

[Canoerebel]

Pardon me for be a contrarian, but I don't think you have to fight on two sea fronts.  I didn't in my two WitP games and I haven't in this one (except the brief period when I invaded the Kuriles) and it's gone fairly well.  I am very glad to be fighting in the DEI, close to the Japanese juglar.

I also don't think B-29 will be the weapon they were in WitP for several reasons.  But even in WitP it was tough to use them at any distance - such as the Saipan group.  I think AE will prove even more difficult from a distance.  In my opinion, if I'm going to effectively use B-29s against the Home Islands, I have to do so from Luzon, Formosa, Okinawa, China, Korea, Russia, or Sikhalin Island (and Luzon may even be a bit too far).

Meanwhile, I want to see what's up this next turn (which I'll receive later tonight or tomorrow a.m.).  Allied orders issued:

1) Carriers move NE a few hexes to take station between Lautem and Babar Island.
2) Transports at Boela to load four regiments prepped for Dadjangas.
3)  Additional transports heading to Morotai to load tanks and combat engineers for Dadjangas.
4)  Transports at Darwin loading with garrison and engineer troops for Gorontalo (on Celebes).  If the coast is clear to run in to Gorontalo, these transports will also pick up 7th Marines, which are prepped for Dadjangas.
5)  These moves will put the Allies in position to move on either Dadjangas or the Kendari/Mataram regions.  The Allies can select whichever route is free from the KB threat.  Also, the Allies are repositioning B-24 squadrons to Ternate and Morotai.  These will be used to (hopefully) badly damage or close the big IJA airbases at Butuan and Cotabato prior to the Dadjangas invasion.

[eloso]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

One other major factor is the carrier "react" feature - it's just as bad as UV and even worse than in WitP.  In WitP you could create "escort" TFs and the carriers wouldn't react.  But in AE the computer switches "escort" to "carrier" TF if fleet carriers are present. 

I never tried the "escort" trick. The one that I always used was setting them to follow a surface TF (usually a CL and a few DDs) with a reaction of 0. Have you tried this one?

[Misconduct]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Pardon me for be a contrarian, but I don't think you have to fight on two sea fronts.  I didn't in my two WitP games and I haven't in this one (except the brief period when I invaded the Kuriles) and it's gone fairly well.  I am very glad to be fighting in the DEI, close to the Japanese juglar.

I also don't think B-29 will be the weapon they were in WitP for several reasons.  But even in WitP it was tough to use them at any distance - such as the Saipan group.  I think AE will prove even more difficult from a distance.  In my opinion, if I'm going to effectively use B-29s against the Home Islands, I have to do so from Luzon, Formosa, Okinawa, China, Korea, Russia, or Sikhalin Island (and Luzon may even be a bit too far).

Meanwhile, I want to see what's up this next turn (which I'll receive later tonight or tomorrow a.m.).  Allied orders issued:

1) Carriers move NE a few hexes to take station between Lautem and Babar Island.
2) Transports at Boela to load four regiments prepped for Dadjangas.
3)  Additional transports heading to Morotai to load tanks and combat engineers for Dadjangas.
4)  Transports at Darwin loading with garrison and engineer troops for Gorontalo (on Celebes).  If the coast is clear to run in to Gorontalo, these transports will also pick up 7th Marines, which are prepped for Dadjangas.
5)  These moves will put the Allies in position to move on either Dadjangas or the Kendari/Mataram regions.  The Allies can select whichever route is free from the KB threat.  Also, the Allies are repositioning B-24 squadrons to Ternate and Morotai.  These will be used to (hopefully) badly damage or close the big IJA airbases at Butuan and Cotabato prior to the Dadjangas invasion.

I agree Canoe, I have been quite silent in your AAR but I must agree with your steps towards strategy, I don't believe the B-29 will be the devistating weapon it was in WITP for a few more reasons then just the distance, the distance alone will cause OP loses and higher fatigue in the pilots. Which in the long term means less pilots in the air and more damaged/destroyed aircraft. Secondly I really like seeing you are taking a look at Dadiangas, this can open a realm of possibilities for invasion. I think shutting down philippines opens a road to the South East Asia and puts more constraint on the japanese then moving anywhere else right now.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: OSO

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
One other major factor is the carrier "react" feature - it's just as bad as UV and even worse than in WitP.  In WitP you could create "escort" TFs and the carriers wouldn't react.  But in AE the computer switches "escort" to "carrier" TF if fleet carriers are present. 

I never tried the "escort" trick. The one that I always used was setting them to follow a surface TF (usually a CL and a few DDs) with a reaction of 0. Have you tried this one?

OSO, that was standard strategy in UV, WitP, and AE. It doesn't work in any of them.

P.S. To my knowledge, the react feature is the longest-lived reviled feature of the trilogy. I don't understand why the feature isn't disabled or fixed so that it works like players would like it to work.

[Chickenboy]

Canoerebel, I'm at April 1942 in one of my PBEMs and I haven't seen this problem yet.

[:'(][;)]

[Canoerebel]

Just wait - your day is coming. 

[JohnDillworth]

I don't think you have time to do much in the Central Pacific. You can't get to the Mariana's without going through the Carolina's and that takes too much time and frankly with Truk intact Miller has all the advantages.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


ETA: crsutton: I think Canoerebel *has* two legitimate fronts right now: Southern DEI and SE Asia. I think you're asking for a THIRD offensive front to be opened, aren't you?

Well, no. I was not really referring to Canoerebel because he has critical shortages of invasion capable shipping, but rather as an overall Allied stratgy. Yes, you are right in that it is three fronts, but I am considering SE Asia as a given as there is not much else for the Indian army to do but to slug away overland.

I just think that, as Canoerebel is discovering, the DEI is fraught with carrier traps due to excessive strength of Japanese air and carriers this late in the game. The more I see the less happy I am with the overall balance of the air war. Something is out of whack when the Japanese can just create so many aircraft and pilots. And, it is beginning to become apparent that there might be imbalances in the carriers wars as well that give Japanese naval air an advantage when it really should be with the Allied fleet at this stage.

The Allied player may actually be better off going through CenPac and use the DEI as a secondary thrust.

[Canoerebel]

4/25/44 to 4/28/44
 
Mexican Standoff:  The KB is steaming in circles in the sea between Tawi Tawi and Puerto Princessa, daring me to move on either Mindanao or Kendari.  The Allied carriers, in turn, are in the Ceram vicinity, waiting to see if the KB moves.  Japanese combat ships picked off several subs, and a sub picked off a IJN destroyer.  Allied transports at Morotai have finished loading the Dadjangas-prepped troops and are ready to move if the KB vacates the vicinity.  Transports loaded with Kendari reinforcments remain near Ceram waiting for an all-clear in that area.  And, at Koepang, transports are loading troops bound for Waingapu and Mataram (islands between Timor and Java).
 
Borneo:  It appears that many of the Borneo bases are lightly garrisoned, so I believe the Allies can make substantial progress toward the goal of reaching the South China Sea by moving along either northern or southern coasts.  Troops are prepping for both - including the troops at Manado, which just eradicated the final Japanese troops at that base.  The Allies need a bit of time to get new airbases operational - especially at Gorontalo and Kolako at opposite ends of Celebes.  These will offer protection for advances along either axis.
 
Burma:  The Allies will try a probing attack at Tavoy tomorrow.  With 2000 AV to 450 AV, you'd think progress might be made, but I'm not optimistic.
 
China:  The Allies will also try one final probing attack at Nanning, which has been isolated for awhile now.  If no progress is made the Chinese will resort to defensive and guerilla operations.
 
What about Chickenboy's Idea?:  The Allies have three divisions (prepping for Balikpan and - believe it or not - Manila) on the way from the West Coast.  The transports are nearing Pago Pago.  If, by the time they arrive at Darwin, there is still a stalemate in the DEI, I think I'll transfer those divisions to SEAC to assist in the Thailand/Vietnam offensive.  On the other hand, if the Allies have punched through and made progress in the DEI, then these troops will remain there. 

[eloso]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: OSO

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
One other major factor is the carrier "react" feature - it's just as bad as UV and even worse than in WitP.  In WitP you could create "escort" TFs and the carriers wouldn't react.  But in AE the computer switches "escort" to "carrier" TF if fleet carriers are present. 

I never tried the "escort" trick. The one that I always used was setting them to follow a surface TF (usually a CL and a few DDs) with a reaction of 0. Have you tried this one?

OSO, that was standard strategy in UV, WitP, and AE. It doesn't work in any of them.

P.S. To my knowledge, the react feature is the longest-lived reviled feature of the trilogy. I don't understand why the feature isn't disabled or fixed so that it works like players would like it to work.

That's news to me since I never saw an Air Combat TF react in my CHS game against FeurerKrieg while set to follow a Surface Combat task force. It didn't matter who was in command either. They had plenty of opportunities to do so. On the other hand, if they were set to follow a Transport TF or any other sort of TF, they would react.

[Canoerebel]

It's happened to me twice in this game in very big and negatives ways - first in the Battle of Luganville (June '42) in which my carriers were set to follow a combat TF, but reacted away from it and out from under LRCAP. Then it happened in the First Battle of Morotai (November '43) with identical results.

It happened to me many times in both WitP and UV. The most egregious example I had was a big carrier TF following a combat TF to get "out of harm's way." The carriers were way down around Koumac following a strong BB TF when they reacted nearly all the way to Luganville, which was enemy owned, and got eaten alive by LBA and carrier-based air.

But answer me this: Why can't we have a game where if you order carriers not to react they don't?

[Canoerebel]

5/1/44 and 5/2/44
 
An ugly turn for the Allies as the Japanese administer a few sharp stings and the weird - an increasingly irritating - standoff continues in the DEI.
 
Moving into a Vaccuum (Not):  When Allied forces are on the move and a big showdown is imminent it often creates a void elsewhere so that it's relatively safe to move into the vaccuum.  I do it often and with good success, but this time I got nailed.  With the KB in the Philippines and the Allies in force from Morotai to near Kendari, I embarked on a low-risk "vaccuum-area" invasion of Waingapu, and island between Java and Timor.  All I can say is that this time Miller was waiting - Frances and Jill bombers tore into the amphibious TF over two days sinking six LCI, 1 AP, 1 AKA, 1 APA, 1 LSV and a DE.  Ouch!  I'll have to reevaluate my instincts for "vaccuum-area" movement.  The Marine regiment did get ashore at Waingapu in decent shape and will try a deliberate attack tomorrow.
 
Mexican Carrier Standoff:  The KB continues to steam in circles just north of Zamboanga (sinking every sub in sight, I might add).  The Allied carrier and Kendari-reinforcement transports remain just south of Ceram and the Dadjangas invasion transports remain huddled together at Morotai.  If I move either way and Miller guesses right, a massive carrier battle ensues.  I am a bit frustrated over the stalement, but the Allies may be willing to accept battle soon.  Forward airbases continue to come on line and/or build up so that the Allies have much more LBA potential in the Kendari area now.  Kolako is a level two, Boeton Island is a two, and Taliaboe is a one.  Watampon will reach level one in about a week.  At the moment I am trying to decide whether to send the Kendari-prepped troops directly to Kendari, as opposed to landing at friendly Kolako, as I can reach the beach in one turn and therefore likely get ashore before the KB could reach this area even if Miller guessed right.  But I'm also considering sending the Allied carriers sprinting over to Soerabaja to clobber some shipping there.  Don't know yet what I'm going to do.
 
China:  The Japanese blasted away the Allied garrison at Liuchow.  That leaves a gap in the Allied MLR, with Kweilin and Nanning on either side.  Don't know what I'm going to do next, but I see some benefit to the Japanese having some success in the interior of China, for when the Western Allies are finally ready to invade coastal China it will be better if Miller has been focusing inland rather than on his port cities.
 
Back to the drawing board as I try to figure out some way to break the standoff in a manner that will help the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

The Allies will proceed with landings at Kendari covered by the carriers.  I'm doing so for these reasons:
 
1)  No additional fleet carriers (CV or CVL) are set to arrive in the foreseeable future, so the force is at its max.
2)  If Miller guesses right and sends his carriers south towards the region, he might not reach the area until the second day (meaning the Allies could evaluate after the first day of battle).
3)  Or, if his carriers do arrive close enough to launch, it will be at long distance with the Celebes in between (hopefully reducing the possibility of the dreaded carrier reaction feature that plagues me).
4)  The Allies have a network of airbases to assist.
5)  The Allies have shut down Miller's two best fields (Kendari and Makassar).  4EB will hit one of his next closest (Balikpan) tomorrow.
6)  I need to get the troops ashore so that the Allies can regroup for future operations.
7)  No matter what happens with carriers, the transports should have at least one day, perhaps even two, to unload the bulk of the troops.
 
So there may be a big carrier battle next turn, or there may not be.  I should find out late this afternoon.
 
All carrier TFs are set to follow a combat TF.  CAP will be set, probably 50% for Hellcats and 60% for other fighters.

[anarchyintheuk]

If they don't hit you on Day 1, your cap is going to be fatigued for Day 2. Tough call, do you have any % set on rest?

[Canoerebel]

Miller has gotten home early.  He'll be running the turn shortly, so I'm going to find out soon if battle takes place.  I just have a feeling that it well, though I think I'd prefer if it didn't.  A few more notes:
 
1.  Most of the Hellcats are set at 60% CAP.  The other fighters, a collection of Corsairs, FM-1, Seafire, etc. are split between 60% or 70%.
2.  The Allies have 1200 aircraft in this carrier group.  An additional 150 fighters will provide LRCAP from nearby air bases.  Land-based strike aircraft are also scattered about.
3. Before the KB arrived an rudely interrupted Allied unloading operations at Kolako, two plus divisions prepped for Kendari had come ashore.  Those troops are now on the march and will arrive at Kendari in about three days.  The contingent about to land directly at Kendari includes 6th Division, an armored unit, and some change.