Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[Anachro]

Only one CVE lost at the moment, one should survive, one is burning but has a chance of survival, disbanded in port.

Edit

Will be interesting to see next turn. My carriers are going at flank speed with range for DBs/TBs/fighters set to range of 8. This is backed up by dedicated CAP from fast CVEs and 75 P-38Gs (with a range of 16 using droptanks) from Tagula Island. The smart thing would be for John to move back out of range now that surprise is lost, but this is John we're talking about. He might try to "finish off" the ships hit at Torokina.

My only worry is my carriers don't move to where they are supposed to. Direct and absolute threat tolerance settings. If John doesn't fight, then we finish landings at Torokina and then move up to Kavieng.

[HansBolter]

Don't forget that Allied carrier strikes are limited to a 7 hex range regardless of the range of the planes.

[Anachro]

John hasn't sent me the full report. All I have is the 001 file. This is what the replay gave me.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Ontong Java at 115,129

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 70
A6M5a Zero x 12

Allied aircraft
F4F-4 Wildcat x 27
F6F-3 Hellcat x 87
SBD-3 Dauntless x 62
TBF-1 Avenger x 28

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F4F-4 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
xAKL Shonan Maru #8, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
DMS W-15
xAK Asuka Maru, Bomb hits 8, and is sunk
xAKL Toyotsu Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
xAKL Tenpei Maru, Bomb hits 5, and is sunk
xAKL Taibu Maru, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
TK Hoshin Maru, Bomb hits 7, and is sunk

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Buka at 109,128

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 77
A6M5a Zero x 5
B6N1 Jill x 46
D4Y1 Judy x 9

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 17
Sea Hurricane Ib x 10
P-38G Lightning x 6
F4F-3 Wildcat x 17
F4F-4 Wildcat x 52
F6F-3 Hellcat x 99

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 2 destroyed
B6N1 Jill: 13 destroyed
D4Y1 Judy: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Fulmar II: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ontong Java at 114,128

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 32
A6M5a Zero x 16
N1K1 Rex x 17

Allied aircraft
Albacore I x 15
F4F-3 Wildcat x 6
F4F-4 Wildcat x 33
F6F-3 Hellcat x 94
SB2C-1C Helldiver x 10
SBD-3 Dauntless x 140
SBD-5 Dauntless x 16
TBF-1 Avenger x 98

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M5a Zero: 1 destroyed
N1K1 Rex: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Albacore I: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
SBD-3 Dauntless: 2 destroyed, 9 damaged
SBD-5 Dauntless: 1 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 2 destroyed, 8 damaged

Japanese Ships
CVL Ryuho, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVL Chiyoda, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Junyo, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVL Ryujo, Bomb hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Hiyo, Bomb hits 3, on fire
CA Haguro, Torpedo hits 1
CA Mogami, Bomb hits 1, on fire
BC Haruna, Bomb hits 10, on fire
CA Kumano, Bomb hits 7, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Tamanami, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
CS Poroshiri
DD Kiyonami
DD Hatsuzuki
CA Myoko, Bomb hits 2
DD Akizuki
DD Yoizuki
CL Noshiro
DD Mochitsuki, Bomb hits 1
DD Makinami

Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Hiyo
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVL Ryuho
Ammo storage explosion on CV Junyo
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CV Junyo
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVL Ryujo
Fuel storage explosion on CVL Chiyoda
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVL Chiyoda
Fuel storage explosion on CVL Chiyoda
Fuel storage explosion on CVL Ryuho
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring BC Haruna
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring a Japanese CA
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring a Japanese DD

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ontong Java at 114,128

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 25 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 12
A6M5a Zero x 9
N1K1 Rex x 9

Allied aircraft
SBD-3 Dauntless x 15

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
CV Junyo, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
CV Hiyo, heavy fires

[Anachro]

And this...from the replay at least.

[jwolf]

At minimum this makes up for his successful hit on your ships just before this. But it looks like your side sill come out far better. Congratulations on a successful set of strikes and defense.

[Canoerebel]

Do you have the written Combat Report or are you solely going by running the 001? If you've only been given the 001 to run, the Sync Bug may be an issue. I can't reconcile the results from what's given here and what's in John's AAR.

[Anachro]

Oh no.

As stated above, all I have it the 001 file, so a sync bug could be at play here. If so, it would the very first one of this game for me and come at a most unfortunate turn...I'm about to be very depressed, aren't I?

[Bearcat2]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Oh no.

As stated above, all I have it the 001 file, so a sync bug could be at play here. If so, it would the very first one of this game for me and come at a most unfortunate turn...I'm about to be very depressed, aren't I?

What is the date of your attacks?

[BillBrown]

I am not sure when but a few patches ago michaelm embedded the combat report into the turn file. Once you load the turn file, the combat report will be the proper one. You can view it in the game or the one the save folder.
that combat report will be the one that is real.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Bearcat2

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Oh no.

As stated above, all I have it the 001 file, so a sync bug could be at play here. If so, it would the very first one of this game for me and come at a most unfortunate turn...I'm about to be very depressed, aren't I?

What is the date of your attacks?

The previous map screenshot said June 7/43, so the turn being discussed should be June 8/43.

[Canoerebel]

If that's the case - if it's the June 8 turn - then it looks like the sync bug struck.

[Anachro]

Got the turn. It's amazing...the combat report is identical in everything except the air battle...a Tonan Maru TK takes a torp like in the sync bug, the Tatsuta-maru CVE tanks a torpedo like in the sync bug...but for some reason the air battle is different. Anyways, Buna falls. We go again tomorrow. I get some hits in on CVs with no hits on mine, but nothing too devastating for John. We will try a flank speed surface action perhaps with our BCs and BBs (though I'd bet John moves northeast). Sync bugs are always frustrating.

Replenishment carriers will provide plane reinforcements to my carriers in one or two turns. Fuel is also coming. I can put LBA DBs previously at Tagula/Milne on carriers and remove some devastated squadrons. There is still cause for optimism. But it does feel like all the lucky breaks go against me in this match.

[CaptBeefheart]

Well, shucks. Sorry to see the lack of devastation. Good luck with the follow up. Fresh VMFs, VMBs and VMTBs on your decks might carry the day.

Cheers,
CB

[Anachro]

Hey guys, back from my trip and its been quite a roller coaster. At the end of the day, we lost of a few CVEs in some battles (most frustratingly were my replenishment CVEs which did not move nearly as far as their range bands implied the previous day, ending up in range of enemy carriers). I'll post an update soon. The good news: we hold Manus, Lae will fall, and we have a foothold to build upon around Cape Gloucester, Hansa Bay, and soon enough Madang. Manus will not doubt come under pressure.

Let's keep John occupied and focused on this area of operations. No CVs have been lost and the full fleet of CVs (American and British, new Essex's and old Lexingtons) and CVLs are combining.

[Timotheus]

Can I ask for a favor?
Can you keep the pictures not too wide

OR

have pictures on separate post, and the commentary on a separate post?

This is because on my browser, if a picture is too wide, I can either make the window smaller - and the text size omg-I-cannot-read-it or I have to scroll forever to the right to read a sentence, then scroll left for the next one.....

[Anachro]

Sorry for lack of activity, I've been pretty busy with real life work. Started a new job.

June 29th, 1943

Expending huge amounts of fuel and men, John has taken back Lae. He has 2-3 heavily degraded divisions there now and, furthermore, suffered losses from a CV strike that wiped out his transports with casualties to either men he was loading or offloading. In the north, I still hold Manus and Hansa Bay, but I of course expect these to also come under attack. Forts at both are at level 2 and building. I'm happy to let John continue to thrust here and throw his weight around. As I said, he is expending a lot of fuel doing this as every battleship in the Japanese fleet seems to be in the area. No doubt, Manus will come under heavy bombardment itself. I made a mistake at Lae in attacking when I thought the initial landing forces were weak and lost a 100 AV as a result. I won't do the same again.



However, I think John has made a mistake in that the 20,000 men at Lae are trapped there and can continue to be trapped through the threat of my CVs and nearby LBA. It'll be tough for him, especially now that all my fleet-capable CVs and CVLs are now combined and will meetup at Rockhampton. I will have: 4 Yorktown-class, 1 Lexington-class, 2 Charlotte-class, 2 Independence-class, 3 upgraded Illustrious-class, 1 Indomitable-class, and 2 Essex-class carriers (CVs Enterprise and Hornet are on their way back from repairs at Sydney, Enterprise has 8 days of emergency repairs before full health, CV Lexington is on her way to Capetown for repairs before supporting efforts in the Indian theater). This will bring the total to 7 American CVs, 4 British CVs, and 4 CVLs for a total of ~950 a/c. In turn, 3 or so Japanese carriers have taken torpedoes (though frustratingly none suffered more than 1 hit and a 4th took 2 duds) and this bodes well. I must be cognizant, however, that John also has immense LBA in the area. We have troops prepping for Madang and Aitape, etc. The goal is to overwhelm and cutoff the 20,000 men at Lae and push north, staying in range of LBA.



However, I don't want to stick around with my carriers for too long. Let's keep John distracted in this theater as long as possible. The real news is the thousands of AV (including thousands of Chinese AV) prepping for Burma and most of my transports, slow battleships, etc. are heading that way. John interestingly has a mini-KB roving around near Diego Garcia (just how many carriers does Japan get in this fantasy mod?). I'm not gonna try and take it on, but I have some DDs roving around looking for opportunities (he already tried to strike DDs once with no hits). Anyways, we do our first city strike against the oil fields of Magwe today where John inexplicably seems to have no air cover. As a result, we do good damage in our first day of work and an oil field that was previously estimated at 301 oil production today shows 136(215). We will continue to bomb it into smithereens.

[BBfanboy]

The problem with concentrating all your CV types in one spot is that eventually they have to go back to port for ammo, fuel, repairs and upgrades. During their absence he can reinforce or withdraw troops and bring in supply. If you can decimate that CV/CVE TF up at Kavieng you would be able to halve your CV force and have one half at sea at a time. I know he has strong LBA up that way, but maybe you could lure him with a false Amphib force heading toward Lae?

[Anachro]

Yes, we aim to not allow that to happen. His CVs, divided already I think, move back towards Truk. He is using battleships and LBA to put pressure on Cape Gloucester, which has some minor base units, and Manus. Manus should hold, we'll see about Cape Hansa. Gloucester should fall. We'll move in with reinforcements in a bit as we line them up. I have most definitely thought about enticing John with an exposed transport force. We'll see. The problem with this scenario is that John has extreme recon/nav search capabilities due to the immense amounts of long-range heavy bombers he has with like 30+ range. He can can cover far more deep space with eyeballs than the Japanese could in real life. Or so it seems to me. Hard to hide task forces in the rear.

July 1st, 1943

In China, John has broken through defensive lines and we retreat back towards the mountains. An attack by one unit to see what's there finds 2000 AV in Chungking, giving us info to pull some troops out to solidiy defenses elsewhere. More interestingly, it seems John has left only a token force in the rear: only 300 Japanese AV sits at Tsuyung and can probably be overwhelmed if reinforcements are brought in.

Ground combat at Tsuyung (68,46)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 35032 troops, 33 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1111

Defending force 8034 troops, 38 guns, 285 vehicles, Assault Value = 359

Assaulting units:
36th Chinese Corps
10th Chinese Corps
76th Chinese Corps

Defending units:
15th Tank Regiment
8th Ind.Mixed Brigade
3rd Tank Regiment
12th Tank Regiment
5th Armored Car Co

In the South Pacific/Australia, various mundane efforts are underway to repair, refuel, and re-situate boats for operations.

In Burma, for some reason John decided Magwe isn't worth air cover for a week now. The oil production there is now down below 100 and sits at like 93(230) or something like that based on recon. Not sure why John is happy to let his oil be pounded. We will bring it down to 0 I guess and then work on the refineries.

Morning Air attack on Magwe , at 57,47

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Allied aircraft
Liberator II x 12
Liberator GR.III x 3
Wellington B.X x 12
B-17E Fortress x 12
B-17F Fortress x 13
B-24D Liberator x 20
B-24D1 Liberator x 46

Allied aircraft losses
Wellington B.X: 1 damaged
B-17F Fortress: 1 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 1 damaged
B-24D1 Liberator: 8 damaged

Oil hits 32

[Cheesesteak]

I'm reading both sides, just wanted to say thanks for providing the updates! I've been spotty at best on my own AAR. Real life can be a serious distraction.

Do you consider the recent op a success? I've never taken a pvp game to the point of Allied counteroffensives, so curious to hear how the pacing and losses feel.

[Andav]

In Burma, for some reason John decided Magwe isn't worth air cover for a week now. The oil production there is now down below 100 and sits at like 93(230) or something like that based on recon. Not sure why John is happy to let his oil be pounded. We will bring it down to 0 I guess and then work on the refineries.

Speaking as a Japanese player, John is probably happy you are not using 120 4E bombers on his troops, his airfields or his ports. The oil from Magwe is by far the lowest priority to pull from anywhere in the Empire. It is furthest away from the Home Islands and closest to Allied Nastiness. Bombing this does not prevent him from building forts at other bases or building airfield around the theater and does not destroy his supplies or cause him to use supplies to rebuild airfields or ports. It does not damage his troops or really cause him any concern. Bombing refineries after the oil is gone cause him even less concern. It also does not cost him strategic points since it is outside of the HI. While I feel like I am betraying my brethren, you really should look for a different target. If he does pull some oil or fuel it will not really matter. For the Japanese, it is hard to keep Burma supplied. Bomb something that will cause him to use supplies to defend or rebuild.

Wa