Forlorn Hopes: John III vs. Canoerebel

[Mistmatz]

Grats on the Wotje success. It will surely be a though thing to keep your foot there but it will also be worht the effort as Japan has to answer this advance.
Better of course would be a second AF nearby, like you planned initially. Hopefully you get a chance to expand which would be good once KB steps in for a visit.

[Q-Ball]

Nice grab, even though it was very expensive! That is an important lodgement, you will lose alot of ships keeping it supplied, but it will be worth it if you can engage in a war of attrition there. If you can get Maloelap and Kwaj seriously damaged, I would go for Mili or Majuro to provide another base. Are they occupied, or no?

Look on the bright side too, you learned a valuable lesson as Allies: Always assume a Lvl 4 airfield within 9 hexes of your ships can launch large escorted Betty Strikes against you. You must have a plan to suppress all Lvl 4 A/F during an invasion, or expect numerous strikes from Bettys. The Betty can be moved anywhere in the Pacific in 2 days, and the Zero in 3-4, so the IJN can react much more quickly with LBA than with KB. I always play Japan, and always keep a reserve of Bettys for this very reason; they are the top weapon to repel an invasion through mid-'43 at least.

[Canoerebel]

10/17/42
 
Marshalls:  Yet another surface clash, and this one went to the Allies.  The Jap TF was led by CA Aoba, which faces a larger TF flagged by BB Washington.  CL Jintsu and two DDs were set afire.  The sudden transfer of some 150 U.S. aircraft into Wotje probably caught John a little by surprise.  Fighters - high experience F4Fs and low-experience P38s downed many Bettys and Zeros, though one Betty put a single TT into BB Washington, which has less than moderate damage and will try a sprint for Johnston Island.  SBDs sortied, scoring more hits on the damaged Jintsu, and hits on two APs at Kwajalein.  B17s hit Kwaj and added four 500 pounders to BB Kirishima's woes.  She went down.  That's three Jap BBs that have gone down in the past few weeks, which nearly offsets the number of Allied BBs lost in the game.
 
Australia:  A good day here too, as nearly the entire Adelaide garrision moved a hex, with the remaining two or three units sure things to get out overnight.  I'm pretty sure this is a big blow to John.  He made several comments when he seemed to have the garrision cut off that he had to make sure he kept it that way.  The escape is thanks to 4th Australian Division, which marched hard and far and repeatedly drove back four Jap tank regiments.  Good going, boys!  However, John will pick up alot of supplies in Adelaide.  The KB positioned just north of Tasmania hit the port of Melbourne and damaged many, many ships and subs.  An Aussie division drove a detachment of paratroops and part of a base force out of a little town north of Melbourne and recaptured this base.
 
China:  The Chinese troops at Nanchang are also on the move and hopefully will vacate the hex in two or three days.  I think I can quickly organize a large force to move on Hanoi, drawing from the Changhsa defenders and some other troops.  I have alot of political points to expend, and I doubt John has a huge force there.  He's got to be weak somewhere.

[Mistmatz]

I recently learned that moving a HQ unit out and back into a base might help to draw supplies to that base. As Adelaide has low demand due to no LCU's remaining I'd guess that some supplies might then leave the town which would help your defense elsewhere and keeps also the prize low for the enemy. Just an idea, don't know if it's feasible in your situation.

[Raverdave]

Hello Canoerebel,  Just to give you some hope.  I too "lost" Australia (and most of India) back in '42 along with six carriers but have still continued to fight on.  It is now April'44 and I have all of the East Coast of Oz back but he still holds North and Western Australia (and most of India).  It is a long slow climb but you can get there.  So fight on !

[Canoerebel]

10/18/42 to 10/21/42
 
Thanks, Raver.  I read one of your posts from a week or two back in which you described your game.  As I recall, when you recaptured Melbourne you suddenly received all kinds of backlogged reinforcements, including ships.  It's good to know others have been through situations similar to mine.
 
Marshalls:  For the moment, Wotje is secure.  There is a huge exodus of ships from the island - both damaged transports and combat ships, and undamaged transports that have finished unloading.  Bad weather and good luck have kept Jap bombers from nearby bases from wreaking havoc.  John sent a surface combat TF led by CA Aoba to try to interdict these ships, without luck thus far.  SBDs from CVE Long Island scored one hit on Aoba on the 21st.  John had better pull this TF back, because a US CV will be in range tomorrow.
 
I'm concerned that Jap CVs are on the way - there has been a marked absence from SE Australia the past few days.  Accordingly, I've ordered the last three big US combat ships (BB South Dakota, a CA, and a CLAA) to head out tonight.  A CL with about ten DDs will remain behind.  An MLE, ML, and several DMs are present.  The mine level is at 316 and should be close to 800 tomorrow.  I'd like to get it up to about 1500 and then get the ML and several of the DMs out of there before the Japanese cavalry shows up.
 
The Allied garrison of Wotje isn't as strong as I'd like - about 500 AV.  Much of the fighting power of the 1st Marine Division seems to have been lost during the landings - probably in the transports that were sunk by combat ships early in the landing.  In fact, I'd like to remove 1st Division and let it rebuild at Pearl Harbor.  The island currently has about 40k supplies and forts are at one and should rise pretty quickly.  More supplies and reinforcements are on the way, but the road may not be open much longer.
 
Was this invasion worth it?  If it takes significant heat of Australia for a meaningful amount of time, yes.  If, as now appears, John has diverted a large number of CVs toward Wotje, that removes them from Australia and also opens up those sea lanes in SoPac, allowing some ships to get out of Australia and a few others carrying part of a large base force to make it to NZ.
 
Australia:  The Japs took an empty Adelaide on the 18th.  The defenders are on the way to Melbourne and Sydney.  So the final stands will begin soon in Australia.  I don't have enough experience to judge the situation here, but I think the Japs are facing a daunting task in taking the big cities of SE Australia (if Manila is a reliable indicator of the time and resources necessary to take an urban hex with defensive AV in excess of, say, 1500).  There is a chance - just a chance, mind you - that the Japs may get bogged down here long enough for the Allied defenses to become too strong.  The arrival of another Aussie division in about 115 days might be the target date.  That's why it was so important, IMHO, to give John another area (Wotje) to worry about, and to force him into a situation where he has mutliple needs for forces.  This prevents him from focusing entirely on Australia.
 
China:  The retreat from Nanchang is going well.  The retreating units are prepping - most for Changsha, a sizeable number for Hanoi, and a few each for places like Canton and Ichang to at least create some misinformation if John gets good SigInt.  I plan on moving on Hanoi quickly. 
 
Burma:  I think the Chinese can easily hold the main line in China, so I'm sending more units into Burma.  The Chinese already have an AV of 1500 in Lashio.  Another unit is on the march while yet another will be airlifted from Kunming.
 
Over the past two days, the Allies have spent 7,000 political points to prepare units for the invasion of Vietnam and the offensive out of Lashio.
 
Score:  Japs 29,000; Allies 9,000.  If the Japs pick off Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, they should be awfully close to Auto-Victory, but if they don't, the Japs probably won't get there.

[Canoerebel]

10/21/42 to 10/26/42
 
Marshalls:  Picket subs and recon sightings indicated Jap ships were moving on the Marshalls from the south and east.  Accordingly, the Allies hastened the departure of ships - damaged, empty, you name it - from Wotje for Johnston Island or Pearl Harbor.  Nevertheless, there was alot of traffic in between when the Japs showed up.  First, a powerful CA/CL TF lit into the shipping at Wotje, sinking miscellaneous ships including some DDs, DMs, AKs, and the MLE (why the Japs sailed right through the minefield I do not know - 2000 mines didn't even ellicit the usual "minefield encountered" dialogue.  This was an inauspicious time for a fast transport convoy to arrive, but that's what happened.  Three or four APDs carring an artillery regiment were sunk (ouch).  A few survivors scrambled ashore.  The Allied DD force got in some hits of their own, but this was a one-sided battle.  To the east, a CV force - probably three of them - lit into the "refugees," sinking ML Oglala, a DMS, several transports, and miscellaneous other stuff.  Looking at it from the "glass is half full" perspective, I was fortunate that my two remaining CVs, CVE Long Island, and three US BBs had all just cleared the area.  The Jap CVs are not that far from Johnston and I wish they'd come closer, but that's wishful thinking.
 
Meanwhile, the situation at Wotje is pretty good considering.  Several fully-loaded AKs took advantage of the confusion and slipped right by the Jap CVs.  Right now, Wotje has a garrison of 525 AV, 2 forts, 2k mines (of questionable value, it seems), and 53k supplies with a good 20k still to be unloaded.  The island also has a base force capable of handling more than 200 aircraft.  I have about 100 fighters and 32 SBDs there at the moment.  It's been costly, but two positives about Wotje:  (1) It will be a tough nut for the Japs to crack; and (2) It has drawn resources that had been committed to Australia and SoPac.
 
Australia:  Another Jap division from China - 10th Div. - is posted at Brisbane along with a mixed regiment and a bunch of supporting troops.  Allied bombers are hitting these troops.  The defensive AV at Brisbane is 400 with forts 9.  I think that's enough to hold until reinforcements arrive.  I'll probably try to get Brisbane up to about 750 to 1000.  I think that will leave Sydney at about 1500 and Melbourne at 1800.  Allied bombers and fighters are performing well right now, primarily in missions against ground troops.   The Allied air force in Australia is no longer a laughing-stock.  So, does John have enough to finish off Australia?  I wish I knew!
 
Burma:  Air transport of a Chinese unit from Kunming to Lashio continues.  In about ten days, the Chinese units will leave Lahsio and try to push back the Japanese troops 60 miles south.
 
China:  The withdrawal from Nanchang to Changsha is going well.  Troops are moving all over the place - intentionally - to hopefully mislead John as to what's going on.  I HOPE he is thinking I'm scrambling to reinforce Changsha when I'm actually sending a good ten or twelve units towards Hanoi.  I think that actual move on Hanoi will take place in about two weeks.
 
Situation:  I feel better about Australia.  If John takes the continent, he'll have earned it, and at the same time probably earned an auto-victory.

[Canoerebel]

10/27/42 to 11/1/42
 
Australia:  Ships fleeing from Melbourne, Sydney, and Brisbane moved west, south, east...you name it, we tried it.  John has used CV TFs along with LBA at choke points (Tasmania and Perth) to hammer these ships.  It has been painful to watch dozens of ships - mostly merchant vessels - go down under the onslaught.  I've learned something here - this situation wouldn't have occurred if I'd had more experience or if I was brighter - but that won't help in this game.  Oof.  Ugg.  Arg.
 
In Australia proper, however, I'm still relatively pleased with the situation - or as pleased as one can be seeing an opponent seize most of a continent that the Japs never really touched in real life.  Why am I relatively pleased?  Well, the extraction of the troops from Perth and Alice Springs, then the extraction of the combinations of those troops from Adelaide, gave  me the maximum possible force with which to defend the remnant of the continent held by the Allies.  Secondly, the Allies have prevailed in a few minor actions recently - first, the Jap 4th Mixed Regiment showed up at Newcastle at the same time as two Aussie Divisions.  The Aussie's hammered this regiment in two separate engagements, inflicting 1308/55 to 57/4 on the 28th, and 623/9 to 94/3 on the 31st.  I think that regiment will be a mess for quiet some time. 
 
The Japs opened the campaign agains the three remaining Aussie strongholds on the 28th with a deliberate attack at Brisbane.  The attack came off at 0:1, didn't touch the forts, and cost the Japs 977/41/3 to 742/32.  The Jap AV is about 950 and the Allied about 400, and both sides have reinforcements on the way.  The Japs currently have a division (10th) and a mixed brigade present.  The Allies have about three or four brigades, with several more and a division on the way.  The Allies should end up fighting this battle with an AV of about 1,000.
 
The Japs haven't shown up at Melbourne and Sydney yet.  Melbourne has an AV of 2000.  Sydney is about 1100, but if pushed I will pull back some of the troops from Brisbane (since Sydney is easier to defend as it is an urban hex).
 
Burma:  John seems to have taken notice of the Chinese troops in Lashio, sending repeated (but relatively small) bombing raids against this city.  The air transport of the Chinese unit from Kunming will conclude tomorrow, and these troops will advance.  In a few days we'll know whether the Jap defenses in Burma have any weaknesses.
 
China:  Troops are on the move to the staging hexes for the move on Hanoi.  John may already suspect what I'm doing, but if not, he'll get a good idea in about a week when all these Chinese troops arrive in that last city to the NW of Hanoi. 
 
Auto-Victory Watch:  30,781 to 9,385 (John will need 4x the Allied score in 1943 to earn an auto-victory)
 
 

[ny59giants]

China: Troops are on the move to the staging hexes for the move on Hanoi. John may already suspect what I'm doing, but if not, he'll get a good idea in about a week when all these Chinese troops arrive in that last city to the NW of Hanoi.

Dan,
You don't have a HR that restricts Chinese Command LCUs from moving outside of China?? I'm asking becasue I briefly took over a PBEM game (Big B's mod) because the previous Allied player was doing the same thing as you are doing (conflict over them not having changed commands). I took the game over in 5/42 mainly to save India from seaborne invasion (which I did), but we ended it as I lost some CVs in the South Pacific (sound familar?? [:D]). The game would have ended up in stalemate mode for some time and AE would be out by then (we hope).

[Canoerebel]

We do have a home rule that Chinese units must pay political points to switch commands before leaving China.  I spent more than 7,000 PP a week or two ago to switch these units to SE Asia command.  John has done the same in pulling Japanese divisions out of China in order to send them to Australia and probably elsewhere.  So far I've found three such Jap divisions (10th, 2nd, 20th) in Australia.  I think there may be others pulling garrison duty elsewhere in the Pacific, because nearly all of the Southern Area Army divisions are confirmed in Australia.
 
I'm going to try to flood Vietnam.  So far I have about 2500 AV committed to the Hanoi operation, and I'm willing to send another 1500 to 2000 (I still have about 7,000 political points available).  Seizing Hanoi, and then hopefully threatening Hue and Saigon, would be a big help.  Since John has stripped Jap units from China, he's simply got to have a weak point somewhere.  Nanchang wasn't it, so I hope Vietnam is.

[bradfordkay]

Dan, you do realize that he will receive Vietminh troops as soon as you invade Indochina? Has this been figured into your attack calculations?

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I know.  Isn't it two VM divisions?  I'm hoping the combination of surprise and overwhelming force will mean that even with the VM divisions the Japs won't be able to hold Hanoi.  John has pulled so much out of China while focusing on Australia that I think he's got to be weak somewhere, and I want to create some pressure here.  If this works, the pressure will be created.  If it doesn't, I'll pull back.

[Alfred]

IIRC, he gets 4 Vietminh divisions, not 2.
 
Alfred

[bradfordkay]

That's why I am concerned, Dan. If you invade Indochina, you will increase his troops pool. Are you sure that's what you want to do? Is there somewhere else that those troops can do you some good?

[cantona2]

He gets 4.

[Canoerebel]

How large are those Vietnamese Divisions and where are they placed when their entry is activated by movement of Chinese units into or adjacent to Vietnam?
 
Yeah, I'm pretty sure I want to do this.  The Chinese are going to commit enough troops to (I think) overwhelm the Vietnamese opposition.  If it works on that end, and if the Chinese troops at Lashio are successful, I can create some pressure on John in SE Asia.
 
But if the VM divisions are 500 AV and all start in Hanoi, then there's no use even trying.  But if they are 250 AV, it's a go.

[String]

Afaik it's actually a random number of them spawning and they start at 1/3 strength. 100-150ish AV.

[Q-Ball]

No, you get one for every enemy unit crossing into Vietnam, UP TO FOUR. But with that many troops, sounds like it will be 4. There is no randomness.

They come in at 1/3 strength, 35 exp, maybe 150 AV. Not very strong. It wouldn't prevent me from a focused invasion. It would prevent a raid or other expedition, so if you go, go STRONG.

Seems like John is pretty smart, assume Hanoi is a level-9 fort, and will have that 600 AV, so calculate accordingly.

[tabpub]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

No, you get one for every enemy unit crossing into Vietnam, UP TO FOUR. But with that many troops, sounds like it will be 4. There is no randomness.

They come in at 1/3 strength, 35 exp, maybe 150 AV. Not very strong. It wouldn't prevent me from a focused invasion. It would prevent a raid or other expedition, so if you go, go STRONG.

Seems like John is pretty smart, assume Hanoi is a level-9 fort, and will have that 600 AV, so calculate accordingly.

Well, it's lost in the mists of time for me and you would have to ask my opponent Herbie (Tabpub vs. Herbie), but as I recall when I crossed into Vietnam, he either got none or one VM unit. He was quite put out as I recall. Now, that game was started years ago, and I don't remember what patch we were on at that time and whether or not that might have had something to do with it.
All I can say is plan for the worst-case scenario; if that doesn't occur, you will be that much more ahead of the game, so to speak. Good luck.

[Canoerebel]

11/2/42 to 11/12/42
 
China:  From recent email comments, John is well-aware that many Chinese units are moving west from Changsha.  Drat.  I'm going to use an F-4 unit to recon Hanoi for several days to see what he has there.  If it looks lightly held, I'll proceed.  If it's strongly held, I'll re-think my plans.  In that event, I most likely will use Dakotas to air-transport some of these units to Lashio.
 
Burma:  John is moving some of his forces around.  It seems like he's shifted his main defense to the hex south of Lashio from the hex to the SE of Mandalay (the hexes are adjacent to each other, so John can do this easily).  The Chinese are reinforcing Lashio by land and air, and the Brits have four more units on the way to Mandalay.  Pretty soon I should be able to bring overwhelming force against one of these two hexes.  At that point, perhaps the Allies can push the Japs back.
 
Australia:  John main force from Adelaide was nearing Melbourne when they suddenly pulled back.  My best guess is that John decided that Melbourne posed too stiff an obstacle, so he'll re-route much of his army through Broken Hill toward Brisbane and Sydney.  The Allied bombers are getting in good licks against Jap units all over the place, but once John gets an airbase that puts his fighters within range, the blood-letting will stop.  Three Jap divisions are now at Brisbane - including the 2nd just arrived from Tasmania.  John has at least one other division just to the north where it helped take Townsville.  So he should soon have four divisions at Brisbane.  That's when I think his attacks will commence in earnest.  He'll have 2000 AV vs. 1000 AV and forts 9.  His Rockhampton-based bombers are hitting the Allied units daily.  But at least the clock is ticking - nearly mid-November now.  If John isn't able to conquer Australia, how long can he afford to have so much commmitted there?
 
CenPac:  Jap bombers and capital ships are terrorizing the Allied garrison at Wotje.  The US CVs and some combat TFs are posted near Johnston Island, hoping that I can entice John to send his CV TF back that way.  Lord knows, though, that he is always way ahead of me (except for the Allies taking Wotje in the first place, and perhaps he didn't really need to worry about that; we'll see).