Operation Barbershop - Carnage(Ax) vs. Redmarkus(Sv)

[Redmarkus5]

Statistics updated to include incremental losses per turn and loss ratios Sov/Axis.

The trending is in the right direction, although the AFV and Killed ratios are still appalling.

[Redmarkus5]

Graph showing the total losses tracked from turn 25. I will update as the winter plays out.

[Redmarkus5]

In game losses (killed + captured - does not include wounded) versus historical losses for the period June to December 1941.

My stated goal was to fight a historically convincing campaign and to test whether this is both possible to do and whether it would produce a historical outcome.

So far, the results are very good, although the Soviets have arrived at December '41 with a combat effectiveness that feels about 30% too powerful. I am able to attack all along the front when I would really only expect to have been able to mount a limited offensive against AGC.

I would suggest that replacement levels be toned down about 20% and that all reinforcements should arrive requiring refit turns, whereas only some seem to do so today. I am missing the Soviet militia divisions that crumbled into dust before Moscow. I am missing the units that arrived at the front minus their training and minus their rifles.

Sources for the historical figures are Source: "Deutsche militärische Verluste im Zweiten Weltkrieg" by Rüdiger Overmans for the German losses and Evan Mawdsley's Thunder in the East which cites Poteri pp 267-72, 310.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4
So far, the results are very good, although the Soviets have arrived at December '41 with a combat effectiveness that feels about 30% too powerful. I am able to attack all along the front when I would really only expect to have been able to mount a limited offensive against AGC.

What do you mean exactly by a "30% too powerful"? Compared with what?

[Redmarkus5]

Comparing actual Soviet operations over the period Dec 41 to Jan 42 (given that my losses in-game are very close to historical) with those I am able to conduct shows that:

1. Historical operations were;

- Tikhvin
- Rostov
- Moscow

2. The primary in-game operations on going as at 15 Jan 42 are;

- Leningrad-Tikhvin-Ilmen
- Moscow
- Smolensk
- Kursk
- Minor push at Rostov
- Aborted attempt in the Kuban

Subjectively, that feels to me like an operational commitment that is about 30% greater than should be possible at this stage. Maybe it's higher, but it's certainly not less.

[Redmarkus5]

TURN 31 - NORTH

Now that I am seeing a really substantial move of reserves into the Ilman area, I have resumed offensive operations with my troops between Leningrad and Novgorod. These have been refitting for 2-3 turns. I am hoping that the presence of much of the enemy's armour in the Ilmen forests means that he has no remaining infantry reserves and that this renewed push will be the final straw that forces him to pull back towards Pskov.

The push coincides with another south of L Seliger, which is now emerging into clear terrain. A reserve army is poised to exploit should a breach be effected.

[Redmarkus5]

CENTRE

In the centre, I have been able to push two pincers through the enemy's line in the direction Smolensk, in what I hope will be the first phase of a major double envelopment or an Axis retreat to positions west of that city. This is an opportunistic attack launched in response to the enemy's diversion of armour northwards, and it exceeds the objectives laid down by STAVKA for the winter offensive.

[Redmarkus5]

FRONT

Only minor operations took place in the south and operations in the Kuban are suspended. This is the situation along the whole front at the end of Turn 31.

[Redmarkus5]

Analysis of the loss statistics shows that the enemy's armour losses have increased fourfold this turn (a total of over 250 AFVs) while the AFV loss ratio has decreased in my favour. This clearly reflects the impact of placing armour in the line around Ilmen and indicates that by maintaining pressure there for the next 3-4 turns I could potentially degrade the Axis forces by the equivalent of 2-3 Panzer divisions.

[raizer]

The german armor units between the Oster and the Bessed, I would say go thru them and hit them with hasty, delib-whatever you can throw at them

I think you are doing great now and the afv losses are gonna hurt him a lot more than you

[Lieste]

Your Winter to date column for Soviet destroyed should also be 0 throughout - all the lost divisions were from the Axis offensive period.

[Redmarkus5]

ORIGINAL: Lieste

Your Winter to date column for Soviet destroyed should also be 0 throughout - all the lost divisions were from the Axis offensive period.

Right! Good point. That will look better on the table

[Redmarkus5]

Loss trending graphs

[Redmarkus5]

AFV Loss Trending

(And before anyone asks, those are turn numbers under the columns, not new models of Soviet tank!)

[randallw]

Nice presentation.  The meeting may end ahead of schedule then we can go to lunch early. [:D]

[Redmarkus5]

Nooo... This is just the pre-meeting. The actual meeting is an off-site at a resort in Hawaii. We half a golf lesson with Tiger Woods and a keynote address by Sarah P. THEN you get to see my real slides [8D]

[Zorch]

Oh no! Death by PowerPoint!

[Rosseau]

Stating the obvious, but wonderful AAR, redmarkus4. Thanks for your efforts, and good luck.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: redmarkus4

Comparing actual Soviet operations over the period Dec 41 to Jan 42 (given that my losses in-game are very close to historical) with those I am able to conduct shows that:

1. Historical operations were;

- Tikhvin
- Rostov
- Moscow

2. The primary in-game operations on going as at 15 Jan 42 are;

- Leningrad-Tikhvin-Ilmen
- Moscow
- Smolensk
- Kursk
- Minor push at Rostov
- Aborted attempt in the Kuban

Subjectively, that feels to me like an operational commitment that is about 30% greater than should be possible at this stage. Maybe it's higher, but it's certainly not less.

You're forgetting about:

* The amphibious op at Feodosya (more or less the same size of your op at the Kuban).
* The Lozovaya operation that created the Barvenkovo salient
* The Lake Ilmen - Seliger op that created the Demjansk "pocket"

I think that your operational commitment is quite similar to historical.

[Redmarkus5]

Well, the true test will be what happens in '42. If he can bounce back and chase me to the Volga, you may be right.