Aboard the Red Castle - Erkki(J) vs. Smeulders(A) - no lookin'!

[Erkki]

And heres the Jap ship production



I have stopped Shinano and accelerated all CVs except CVL Ibuki and CV Aso (variable reinforcements so Ikoma arrives before Aso). I have converted some merchant shipyards to naval as well as expanded naval yards somewhat. I have also 1 Akitzuki class DD and a CL accelerated, but dont plan to accelerate once their keels are laid. I have stopped so far all RO-submarines as well as 1 other sub. As it is, I should already have enough capacity to accelerate at least 2 first, maybe 3 first, until their arrive and get them by mid -43.

Merchant shipyard points are going down at the moment but they should even out once the first few CVEs come out.

In air production, I am at the moment building

120 A6M2
40 G4M1
22 G3M2(currently stopped, 150 in pool)
30 B5N2
15 B5N1
30 D3A1
30 E13A1
10 H6K4

120 Ki-43-Ic
35 Ki-21-IIa
20 Ki-57-II
10 Ki-56
15 Ki-46-II

+ enough engines to build those all with some engine surplus.

By 9/42 I'm planning to have the factories to build

150 A6M3a
10 A6M2-N
40 G4M1
22 G3M3
30 B5N2
30 D3A1(wont upgrade to A2)
30 E13A
10 H8K1
10 H6K5
5 H6K4-L

150+ Ki-44-IIa
30 Ki-43-IIa
45 Ki-45KAIa
30 Ki-61-Ia
35 Ki-21-IIa
100 Ki-49-IIa
15 Ki-46-II
20 Ki-57-II
10 Ki-56

[Erkki]

My plan with the Ki-44 R&D is as follows: I have 9 x 30 factories in 5 different bases. They are now 2/3 or better repaired, and should accelerate the Ki-44-IIa from 6/42 to 5/42. Instead of converting some of the R&D factories to production factories, I will instead use the Ki-43 and later the B5N2 factory to do that. The R&D on Ki-44-IIb should be able to accelerate it from 7/43 to 10/42 or 11/42... Then the armored, 4-HMG, armored Ki-44-IIc gets accelerated from 3/44 to 4/43 to 6/43. "Wile E. Coyote, super genius!" [:D]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STeVTzWelns [:D]

Of course I'm also R&Ding later marks of the Zero, the Ki-61, N1K and especially Ki-84.

[Erkki]

March 4th 1942


China:

A Chinese corps retreated for the 2nd time North of Changsha, 3,500 Chinese casualties 720 Japanese with nearly 300 Chinese squads destroyed.

Changsha bombardment reveals 3600 Japanese AV + the fresh division joining next turn vs. 2200 defending AV, casualties are similar so forts are max 2 or so...

Burma: aerial reconnaissance flights to Calcutta reveal transport ships both in the port and anchored out of it, over 200 aircraft and lots of troops. We havent found any concentrations of enemy bombers in this theater yet so its possible that we will be able to build up our air bases somewhat before the action begins.

Java:

Dutch PT boats attack in the night, and are stopped by a Japanese cruiser TF. 2 boats are sunk and a 3rd hit before they retreat.

Allied air attacks are continued against unloading Japanese amphibious task forces: Japanese fighter patrols over Kalidjati shoot down 9 Vildebeest torpedo bombers, 9 B-339 fighters and 10 American A-24 Banshee dive bombers to no Japanese losses. Ki-43 pilot Major Izumida P shoots down 4 enemy aircraft in a single sortie, his score now standing at 6 and him being Japans first fighter ace!

Some 5 Banshees and 3 Vildebeests manage to get through. 2 Vildebeests and 1 Banshee are shot down by AAA fire from Japanese ships(all other attackers are at least damaged). Banshees all miss, but a Vildebeest manages to score a torpedo hit on Japan's best light cruiser, CL Oi. Oi's damage is serious, but is not going to sink her unless shes hit again. She is however dispatched from the fleet and is now being repaired at Kalidjati, secured by Japanese troops today.

Japanese raid on a Dutch airfield finds 5 B-339s and 2 Hurricanes flying CAP - 2 B-339s are shot down 3 others damaged. 1 Hurricane shot down, the other damaged, but we also lost 2 Zeros to the Hurricanes (1 pilot MIA, other pilot crashed his damaged plane at landing and is KIA).

Todays air losses are 4 Zeros and 2 pilots vs. 34 to 40 enemy aircraft. Japanese troops capture a damaged B-339 at Kalidjati.

We have now landed almost all the troops and most of the supplies. A recon regiment and some infantry from Kalidjati will try to march across the island to prevent the Dutch units at Batavia from escaping.

SOPAC: CVL Shoho TF finds nothing, time to head home...

[Erkki]

Meanwhile, me and my opponent Smeulders have agreed to limit the China Theater somewhat... We will keep the front line someabout where it is now, abort major operations and keep the action local. Strategic bombing against Chinese targets in Chinese or Japanese hands remains banned.

We discussed about the China before the game even started, but decided to have no other China house rules other than the strategic bombing ones. Now we both feel(this was actually before the Sian disaster already) the China to simply not be fun. Small mistakes can become very costly there to both sides.

From now on:

1) ground action remains local, no major offensives by either side, front stabilized about where it is(ie. Japan will not take Changsha but I will make sure its air fields will never be able to support 4Es).
2) no strategic bombing
3) neither side will move ground or air units away to other theaters, except Japan can move the 38th Division(Southern Army, at Canton, originally "earmarked" for Luzon) and the Chinese can use 1 Corps in Northern Burma.
4) Chinese-generated supply cannot support 4E operations from China, and if Burma Road is opened and Allied bomber offensive begun using Chinese fields, Japan is free to start ground offensives to secure or cut-off those airfields.

After last turn Smeulders commented that I had been very unlucky at Sian: attack just 1 day before would have probably achieved 1:1 or 2:1, as a big stack of Chinese reinforcements arrived the very same turn and in combat operation mode.

We hope these house rules to make the game more fun and allow us to concentrate more on other fronts instead of the China grinding...

[Erkki]

March 5th

A very silent day, would have been without a casualty for both sides had IJAAF bombers flown in China.

Looks like the Allied units on Java are moving to Bandoeng, the mountainous hex in the middle of the island. We'll try to bomb the units on their way there and then the airfield to keep forts low. There wasnt more than 1 unit there before the invasion so I dont think its a prepared fall-back position, just an improvised one, and the Allies are currently giving up Batavia for free. Soerebaja's unit count has dropped from 7 to 3.

[obvert]

By 9/42 I'm planning to have the factories to build

150 A6M3a
10 A6M2-N
40 G4M1
22 G3M3
30 B5N2
30 D3A1(wont upgrade to A2)
30 E13A
10 H8K1
10 H6K5
5 H6K4-L

150+ Ki-44-IIa
30 Ki-43-IIa
45 Ki-45KAIa
30 Ki-61-Ia
35 Ki-21-IIa
100 Ki-49-IIa
15 Ki-46-II
20 Ki-57-II
10 Ki-56

For the 10 A6M2-N there are a few FP squadrons on AVs that upgrade to Rufes as well. I think, if I'm remebering rightly, you can get 4 groups fitted out with them. They're quite useful in small bases, on ships, and as CAP against unescorted bombing runs.

I've found 40 each of Kates and Vals to be a realistic amount to keep a good pool going. They can always be used later as kamis if there are extra left after upgrading.

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: obvert

By 9/42 I'm planning to have the factories to build

150 A6M3a
10 A6M2-N
40 G4M1
22 G3M3
30 B5N2
30 D3A1(wont upgrade to A2)
30 E13A
10 H8K1
10 H6K5
5 H6K4-L

150+ Ki-44-IIa
30 Ki-43-IIa
45 Ki-45KAIa
30 Ki-61-Ia
35 Ki-21-IIa
100 Ki-49-IIa
15 Ki-46-II
20 Ki-57-II
10 Ki-56

For the 10 A6M2-N there are a few FP squadrons on AVs that upgrade to Rufes as well. I think, if I'm remebering rightly, you can get 4 groups fitted out with them. They're quite useful in small bases, on ships, and as CAP against unescorted bombing runs.

I've found 40 each of Kates and Vals to be a realistic amount to keep a good pool going. They can always be used later as kamis if there are extra left after upgrading.

With out current operational tempo I want to avoid overproducing early war crapplanes... A6M2-N I just might increase some, but 30+45 D3A and B5N is more than enough. I currently have almost 200 of them in the pools, no replacements needed because the enemy isnt fighting.

I think there are 4 AVs squadrons and 3 separate squads(one starts restricted) of 12, so I'll need to build about 80 of them before the end of July as if they are purely defensive fighters I dont think their losses are going to be high at all...

[PaxMondo]

Don't think "crap" planes, think light kami's (Val's), good kami's (kates), and heavy kami's (sally's).  remember, late war you are going to lose 1000 planes in a day with a major kami attack.  How long does it take you to build 1000 planes?  2 months?  Lost in one day. 
 
Playing Downfall is teaching me that you cannot back off production in late '42 - '43 too much.  Those 18 months potentially allow you to build 6 - 9 large kami attacks of planes.  Without them, you will struggle to field enough planes.
 
Read Nemo's AAR.  He just lost +600 planes, but he took out 2CV's, 2CVE's, 2BB's ... while not sinking all of them, they are out for the duration of the game, so as good as sunk.

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Don't think "crap" planes, think light kami's (Val's), good kami's (kates), and heavy kami's (sally's).  remember, late war you are going to lose 1000 planes in a day with a major kami attack.  How long does it take you to build 1000 planes?  2 months?  Lost in one day. 

Playing Downfall is teaching me that you cannot back off production in late '42 - '43 too much.  Those 18 months potentially allow you to build 6 - 9 large kami attacks of planes.  Without them, you will struggle to field enough planes.

Read Nemo's AAR.  He just lost +600 planes, but he took out 2CV's, 2CVE's, 2BB's ... while not sinking all of them, they are out for the duration of the game, so as good as sunk.

Yes, I'm aware of the risks of this strategy... However I'm hoping for the fruits of my R&D program to give me some extra edge together with the expanded naval shipyards. I have planned the naval building ahead to late 43 and unless Smeulders bombs my shipyards I can build the 5th Unryu by 11/43.

My HI points are currently +2950/day, so not so much. I will need those points later, I cannot count on being able to hold Palembang and Burma the whole of 43(I'm not PzB you know...).

My kamikaze planes will most probably be the Netties(now 62 a month and not going to lower production), Ki-21/Ki-49(now only 35 but by July 1st production should total 155-160 a month) and lots, lots of Army fighters.

Smeulders doesnt seem to like attrition war at all. So far all the "battles" with him have been quick max 2-3 day skirmishes where he immediately retreats if he didnt win. Outside of massed kami attacks there might not be many opportunities to make use of massive aircraft production. Currently all of his Burma air force is sitting on their thumbs at Calcutta instead of attacking Magwe's oil wells or my troops that sit at open terrain hexes... ...Or killing my 1E bombers left and right in China. My bombers arent escorted because hes afraid to lose a P-40 or 2 to airfield attacks the day after the ambush.

EDIT:

D3A is such a crap I'm indeed building just the minimum number of them. However I'm R&D:ing the D4Y(500 & 250kg bomb, nice!) at 90 planes a month, should have plenty of them by 1/44. B6N also 60 a month. B6N and D4Y arrive pretty early in the dababes, 3/43 and 1/43, with the R&D I should get them 2 or 1/43 and 10 or 11/42.

[Erkki]

March 6th

Quiet everywhere, 3 Dutch MTBs do a kamikaze run towards Japanese CVE TF at Merak. They fight 8 rounds against our surface action squadrons before the last of them is finally destroyed. A Dutch submarine torpedoes DD Arashi near Kalidjati, damage is 4/67/4/0 so with some luck she might make the 1 hex to Kalidjati and disband without sinking.

[Erkki]

March 7th

3rd day in a streak Japanese air strike on retreating Dutch troops failed to launch. Doh.

We have reconnoitered all Dutch airfields on Java and the Allies seem to have about 90 bombers and 30 fighters on the island. If our bombers take off we'll hit the most occupied one of them tomorrow with 90 bombers escorted by 30 fighters after a 50-Zero sweep. Lets see what we find out. Dutch troops in the northern end of Java have now been cut off, and Batavia will fall tomorrow.


Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Tawi Tawi at 71,92

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
H6K4 Mavis x 3



No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
YO-41, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk

[:D]

Those Dutch submarines are super annoying. They share same hex with more than 30 Japanese DDs and some PBs, including 2 dedicated ASW TFs, but the ASW units dont engage them and the submarines have now attacked and hit Japanese DDs(!!!!!) 4 times! Luckily just one of the 4 torps wasnt a dud, and the DD is not in danger of sinking. Retaliatory attacks by other DDs have failed to score a single hit.

Lots of Allied radio activity as well as TFs of various kinds spotted by submarine-borne search aircraft near Hawaii, San Francisco and Sydney. I'm starting to get more SqzMyLemon-like results with my subs as yet 2 more big xAK-only convoys sail past multiple Japanese subs without getting attacked.

[Erkki]

March 8th

Batavia falls! Industry and resource sites fall in Japanese hands completely intact. However, crap weather again keeps our bombers on the ground, and so all the Dutch units make it to Bandoeng intact. At least they are cut-off from supply and reinforcements. Recce planes do fly: no change whatsoever in the plane numbers at Allied fields on Java. PO1 Araki finally shoots down one of the Catalinas, over Kalidjati. 53rd Division starts unloading at Batavia tomorrow. Theres still a mine field present but the escorts should be able to deal with it, plus its not a big field any way.

In 2 days we will have 2 airfields ready in the southern Solomons, at Lunga and Tulagi. Multiple Army fighter wings and groups as well as a Zero unit transfer to staging bases Truk and Rabaul to be ready to fly in. A Torpedo-enabling HQ unit will arrive at Thousand Ships Bay in 3 days, where it will be able to support the whole area. From tomorrow onwards, CVL Shoho TF covers the Solomons reinforcement convoys at least until that HQ unit has unloaded.

In the Bay of Bengal, Japanese engineer, AAA and aviation support units land at Little Andaman and Port Blair tomorrow. Port Blair's paratroopers will be loaded aboard those same ships and moved to Rangoon where they will act as my Burma theater mobile reserve.

[Erkki]

What has been worrying me lately has been the supply levels at Palembang and some other bases on Sumatra. As we know, Sumatra produces 1020+200 supplies a day by Palembang and Medan's refineries.

Wrong. Palembang's supplies are dropping. I dont build any airfield or port on Sumatra, troops need just 3,000 a month and bombers dont fly. There obviously isnt 1,000+ supplies being produced at Palembang daily. I went on and checked the other refineries: Miri(just a small unit) and Tarakan. They should produce 150 and 88 supplies a day - but they dont! The supply levels keep dropping just like at Medan and Palembang. What the hell?

Tracker still says they are producing supplies but thats probably because the Tracker is made to official scenarios. I checked out DaBabes website, documents, and theres no mention of it. No mention in beta patch notes.

These updates and mods are all nice but if someone included a ######## readme with ALL the changes listed I'd appreciate it. Theres a DOC in the DaBabes download but to me its just pig latin. I'm not going to read all of the DaBabes threads on this forum either, and I have JWE green buttoned any way.

Any thoughts?

[PaxMondo]

I don't think that the mods have changed the supply production rates of refineries, and I doubt that Tracker is "assuming" anything.  Tracker just reports the numbers as it sees them.  If tracker says supplies are being produced, you can pretty much be assured they are.
 
The question then is where is the supply going? 
 
Really only three ways:
1.  Allies are bombing the supply dumps (no mention, so we can cross of).
2.  The supplies are being requisioned to another base in the area.
3.  The supplies are being used by your units in the base.
 
If you "tune" the BaseRegDefinitions in tracker to be able to look just at Sumatra, then tracker will be able to tell you if there is any supply movement within the island.
 
If that's not happening, then are you basing a lot of air units, particularly bombers in Sumatra? 
Upgrading/re-building some LCU's?
Re-arming STF's?
 
I've run into this several times myself, and finally slapped myself when I realized what was eating my supply.  For me, it is usually LCU upgrades and/or replacements.  Some of them eat a TON of supply.

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I don't think that the mods have changed the supply production rates of refineries, and I doubt that Tracker is "assuming" anything.  Tracker just reports the numbers as it sees them.  If tracker says supplies are being produced, you can pretty much be assured they are.

The question then is where is the supply going? 

Really only three ways:
1.  Allies are bombing the supply dumps (no mention, so we can cross of).
2.  The supplies are being requisioned to another base in the area.
3.  The supplies are being used by your units in the base.

If you "tune" the BaseRegDefinitions in tracker to be able to look just at Sumatra, then tracker will be able to tell you if there is any supply movement within the island.

If that's not happening, then are you basing a lot of air units, particularly bombers in Sumatra? 
Upgrading/re-building some LCU's?
Re-arming STF's?

I've run into this several times myself, and finally slapped myself when I realized what was eating my supply.  For me, it is usually LCU upgrades and/or replacements.  Some of them eat a TON of supply.

1. Nope, Allies haven't flown any non-naval attack offensive sorties since January when AVG escorted Blenheims to Toungoo and got shot up.

2. The supply levels are dropping on all of Sumatra, Tarakan-Tandjoewhatever and Miri-Brunei.

3. I wish this was the case. Theres no base building going on any of these refinery-supplied areas after Palembang's airfield was built to size 5. Brunei is empty and Miri has just 1 tiny port unit, that uses barely 150 supplies a month, let alone more than 150 a day(which should be Miri's daily supply surplus), so the refinery plant cant be producing supplies. [:(]

Theres some supply moving within Sumatra but on a whole the levels are dropping. Same with Tarakan and Miri area, and incidentally, also Burma. Most of my DEI fighter force is based at Kalidjati on Java. Sorties flown from Sumatra during the last week have totaled 0 offensive sorties, probably less than 200 CAP and search sorties, 5-6 recce sorties a day.

All my rebuilding LCUs are doing that at Singapore. The Sumatra campaign casualties have been patched long ago. I have even moved some troops from Sumatra to Java already(including 2 JAAF AF Bns and an infantry battalion) - I made sure to not load any supplies with the troops.

All TF rearming other than tanker and their escorts' refuel is done at Singapore. Not one Palembang-originated TF from Java operation has returned to Palembang or Oosthaven - they're all still at Merak or Kalidjati or returned to Singapore.

Tracker shows that Sumatra only has 11k supplies. As immediate first aid act I sent some xAKs with supply aboard from Singapore to Palembang... Sumatra is losing supply about 1,5k a day - and theres less than 300 AV on the whole island, no building projects and very few planes fly. [&:] Refineries should produce 1220 supplies a day, more than enough. I can post you some tracker screenshots of Sumatra, Tarakan and Miri...

[PaxMondo]

Wow.  Out of ideas.  Hopefully someone smarter will jump in and help.  Damian?  Alfred?  Mike?  Help?!?!!

[Erkki]

Here some tracker screenshots. Notice how that is the only unit in Miri, and Brunei has no units. Supply generation should be 150 a day(havent been able to repair any oil or refineries there yet), but still the supplies are going down slowly - 100 a month? That unit needs 64 a month but some devices may have been disabled when it was landed about 1 month back. The fuel increase is not 150 a day because I have several tanker TFs going in and out as well as a small sub chaser ASW squadron patrolling the first 5 hex of the route from Miri to Kyushu.

As you can see, 90% of oil turns into fuel but no supply seems to be generated. [:-]

EDIT: its not spoilage either, only the fuel is over the limits now. Also there are no more LCUs in the other bases of the Sarawak/Sabah area. They only ever had an SNLF battalion and a small aviation Bn but they were moved out long ago.

[Puhis]

Didn't they change that so that refineries are no longer producing supply?

[Erkki]

Yeah so it looks like. Need to start hauling more supplies from Home Islands then...


March 9th

5th, or is it 6th?, day in a streak that our bombers fail to attack Dutch air fields on Java because of crap weather. At least the sweep does fly, of course perfectly coordinated with every each Zero over the target simultaneously - with no Allied fighters in sight! [:D]

Otherwise a silent day. I did a lot of stuff to address the supply issue in the DEI ASAP, but it looks like the Singapore-China road is very slow so I might introduce a fuel-supply xAK CS convoy, or 5... Today Home Islands' supply levels finally started climbing. Industry expansions, factory repairs as well as military convoys to especially SOPAC had eaten away a lot of it. Resource level is stable at 35 day's consumption left - but with once the new convoys from PI and Sumatra start arriving we might be able to build some resource reserves.

Java: 26 Dutch units now at Bandoeng. Those might just equal some 1500 AV, right? 53rd Inf Div arrived to Batavia today so we have 2600 combat AV on Java now and 200 more are waiting at Oosthaven to be shipped across the strait.

[Erkki]

March 10th

Java: Japanese bombers finally fly, exactly 100 of them with 50 fighters destroy CAP of 4 fighters and bomb Tilitjap: 12 AC are torched on the ground and probably all the others at least damaged. Post-attack sweep finds one more Hurricane patrolling, and shoots it down. 2 bombers are lost as OPS, enemy losses are 12 bombers and 5 fighters, Hurricanes and Buffaloes.

Philippines: Leyte invaded by a regiment size infantry unit. This small operation shouldnt take more than a few weeks.

Very silent elsewhere. I'm sending some xAKs and PBs from Saigon to Tarakan, they'll pick up 120 AV worth of infantry and Marines and proceed to invade Samarinda(I know Balikpapan has coastal defense guns so we're not going to go there directly). I'll send a cruiser squadron to escort them from Singapore, too. Zeros from Tarakan will cover and I'll probably send one of the carrier divisions to Java Sea to prevent interruption by enemy surface units.

First 2 airfields hit size 1 in the Tulagi area tomorrow. Multiple new AAA, base force, aviation support and Marine infantry units arriving to bases in this area... As soon as we hold some more of Java, Borneo and land at the Celebes we will start hauling fuel from Tarakan to Truk and Rabaul. A heavy cruiser squadron commanded by Tanaka and BB Mutsu TF are still at Rabaul and a convoy from Truk just got them refueled. As soon as we get some fighters to cover, at least Tanaka Squadron will move to Tulagi.