The Great Patriotic War (loki100 vs SigUp) ... SigUp welcome to read

[Oshawott]

In the Crimea, Stavka tried to relieve the siege of Sevastopol by capturing Armyansk and cutting their main rail line.

Nice use of your amphibious capabilities. It happens quite often that Axis players don't cover the land bridges to the Crimea. I am paranoid and always cover all land bridges with Romanian divisions/cavalry.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

In the Crimea, Stavka tried to relieve the siege of Sevastopol by capturing Armyansk and cutting their main rail line.

Nice use of your amphibious capabilities. It happens quite often that Axis players don't cover the land bridges to the Crimea. I am paranoid and always cover all land bridges with Romanian divisions/cavalry.

I fear that any disruption was only temporary, just I am desparate to do something to try and shake up his defense lines

[loki100]

(T31) 15 – 21 January 1942: 'When Time is Over'

Mid January brought even more bad news for Stavka. The Germans had effectively blunted the remaining Soviet offensive around Orel, not just driving back isolated spearheads but, in a series of attacks, halting the entire offensive [1].



Facing a net loss of 5,000 trucks a week, and no longer able to make any progress, Stavka agreed to rest the formations that had been in action since early December. The result was only a handful of attacks were made to keep the Germans off balance at Kaluga where formations of Western Front disrupted the German lines. This operation was prepared by a series of VVS raids first on the Luftwaffe airbases in the sector and then on the identified German reserves around Kaluga.



North of Orel where 1 Shock again crossed the Oka, south of Orel where the cavalry of 34 and 50 Armies hit exposed German units before pulling back..




Elements of 1 Shock in action on the Oka.

In addition, both sides launched limited attacks around Rostov seeking to secure, or expand, bridgeheads over the Don for future operations.



In terms of losses, a combination of the wider German counterattack and the localised Soviet attacks saw heavy tank losses for both sides. 120 Axis and 152 Soviet AFVs were reported to have been destroyed.


T-34s in a prepared ambush east of Orel

Overall losses were 48,000 Axis and 36,000 Soviet.

OOB

Overall Soviet manpower by the usual 100,000 men, 2,000 guns and 100 tanks. Again most of this growth was in the reserve formations with only a limited flow of replacements reaching the combat fronts. However, Stavka was slowly reorganising the front lines and pulling armies back to refit and redeploy as it continued to seek weaknesses in the German lines.



The VVS started to pull a number of battered squadrons back into reserve to rest and train with new aircraft [2]. In addition, around Moscow in particular, an increase in German air activity was reported and overall 35 Axis and 180 Soviet planes were lost.


[1] This is actually pretty depressing.

I need to find some way to keep up some pressure or the Axis will be able to launch multiple offensives in 1942 and I'll be overwhelmed. But there is no point moving up, winning about half my attacks and then being driven back all along the front. This doesn't help with trying to build up a core of Gds formations and is starting to cost me heavily in terms of trucks.

Some of the problem is from the 95NM setting. On the attack the +1 rule is a compensation but on the defense they are very fragile. The result is I am making no real progress at gaining morale from wins, so most units vary between 1-2 CV (depends on fatigue) and its my handful of 50+morale units that I can get to 3-4 (again depending on fatigue).

Even though I feel time is running out, I've deliberately let the bulk of my better units rest this turn, in the hope I can make some pressure in February.

The other problem is that in the Rzhev pocket I lost about 12 divisions and they were all pretty decent. Most had 3-4 wins from earlier defensive fighting. The loss of those, and the resulting loss of Kalinin et al, has really hampered my operations to the north of Moscow.

As things stand at the moment, I can't see how I can survive the Summer of 1942.

[2] I've put most of the SB2 and SU2 squadrons into reserve as I have a lot of Pe-2 and Il-2 now available.

[jwolf]

Wow! That was a very impressive set of counterattacks by SigUp in the center. It's not hard to see how that deflates your hopes in that area, and maybe more broadly. It looks as though the Germans can fight through the winter much, much more effectively under the mild blizzard setting; it's making a huge difference.

On the other hand, the tanks losses are working in your favor; the slight odds in favor of the Germans are more than offset (I assume so) by your production.

As always, your vintage photos add a really cool "human touch" to the fighting.

[STEF78]

ORIGINAL: loki100
The other problem is that in the Rzhev pocket I lost about 12 divisions and they were all pretty decent. Most had 3-4 wins from earlier defensive fighting. The loss of those, and the resulting loss of Kalinin et al, has really hampered my operations to the north of Moscow.

That's the key for a quiet blizzard => destroy a max of soviet units in 1941.

If you fail, you face a winter the way I did [:(]

[Gabriel B.]

Truck losses of 5000 per week are normal during blizard .

1000 due to unit movement + 4000 during resupply operations I suppose ?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Wow! That was a very impressive set of counterattacks by SigUp in the center. It's not hard to see how that deflates your hopes in that area, and maybe more broadly. It looks as though the Germans can fight through the winter much, much more effectively under the mild blizzard setting; it's making a huge difference.

On the other hand, the tanks losses are working in your favor; the slight odds in favor of the Germans are more than offset (I assume so) by your production.

As always, your vintage photos add a really cool "human touch" to the fighting.

My only real hope now is I have cost him enough manpower, armaments and tanks that he has only one real chance in 1942. If he is strong enough to sustain multiple attacks I'm pretty doomed.

All in all, I much prefer the mild blizzard, it does seem to generate much closer and more realistic, tussles, with less need for the Germans to run away. My problem is he has weak units south of Kursk but there is no point marching my infantry over the snow (picking up fatigue) only to be driven back by a counterattack or left looking at empty ground.

I really like that T-34 picture, seems that hiding in barns was quite a common tactic (though I'd imagine pretty risky)

ORIGINAL: STEF78

ORIGINAL: loki100
The other problem is that in the Rzhev pocket I lost about 12 divisions and they were all pretty decent. Most had 3-4 wins from earlier defensive fighting. The loss of those, and the resulting loss of Kalinin et al, has really hampered my operations to the north of Moscow.

That's the key for a quiet blizzard => destroy a max of soviet units in 1941.

If you fail, you face a winter the way I did [:(]

We started the winter offensive pretty equal in terms of numbers, so in that sense I was always vulnerable to being faced with an organised defense on the few sectors where I could concentrate.

Its just this feels like the other end of the extreme to your experience, I really don't want to be doing little between mid-Jan and late May but prepare for the Axis summer offensive.

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

Truck losses of 5000 per week are normal during blizard .

1000 due to unit movement + 4000 during resupply operations I suppose ?

Aye that sounds right, its not the level of losses that worries me, its the value I am getting for those losses. I'm winning say 60-70% of my attacks, but only really able to make localised ones, and losing 100%, for about a net loss of 6-8 battles a turn.

On that basis, apart from trying to achieve some attrition, I'm just chucking trucks and armaments away.

There are two problems at play here. One is we started December pretty equal in numbers (which is fairly historical), so I've never been able to do much more than gain local advantages.

Second is the impact of the 95% morale. So far this has been masked. In the bulk of 1941 it was clear I couldn't make the number of counterattacks often reported, so in that sense the 95% and the +1 rule combined to give some sort of balance. Equally I was often either defending where nothing would have helped (1 cv rifle divisions in the Ukraine) or in relatively well prepared positions and striking back at fatigued German units.

At the moment on the attack the +1 is still masking the underlying problem, but if I am then counterattacked, its all too easy for the Germans, with fatigue, even my few decent units just fall apart.

I know that those more experienced warned us of the implications, so this is really a case of coming to understand the logic of that advice. What is happening is as a result I can't really build morale by wins, nor can I get more wins than losses for particular units (so no Gds). In combination that is trapping my rifle divisions in the 41-44 morale range (ie I can only get them to 2cv if they are well rested and with a high TOE).

The pity is that 95% and +1 gave a better summer/autumn 1941 than 100% and +1 does, but now its leading to a distinct loss of Soviet (player) morale.

When +1 becomes optional, I'd never use it. You don't need it to make a number of counterattacks. I'd still look at lowering logistics (for both), certainly at lowering fort value (for both) and as a trade off take out a chunk of Soviet transport value so you get less factories out, or see more pockets trying to screen key cities (added to reducing fortification rate) in 1941. This should have some longer turn hits for the Red Army and also reduce the capacity to rail around masses of units come 1943.

[jwolf]

Loki, what about 100% morale setting but eliminate the +1 rule for CV odds?  Would that give you the magic balance of everything?  Maybe with lowered logistics/transport too?

[gingerbread]

Well, you do have quantity that you must employ to compensate for the lack in quality.

Really interesting game, at the same time that you seem to be realizing the effect of the 95 setting, so am I and I'm beginning to like it. Mind you, I do think the Barbarossa time period would be a bit different with an Axis player that has experience against a 95 Soviet, so it's probably a one time affair this, at least with the current manpower multipliers.

I'm looking forward to read about your thoughts, plans and their implementation for '42 and onwards. Glad you liked the refill concept.

Oh, do prepare defensive lines along the Terek, just in case. Yes, that far back...

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Loki, what about 100% morale setting but eliminate the +1 rule for CV odds? Would that give you the magic balance of everything? Maybe with lowered logistics/transport too?

I think so. Now that mass is properly rewarded, the Soviets have an intrinsic benefit in combat in any case.

One bit I wasn't understanding was the impact of logistics. My units are picking up fatigue and in my desparation to make some in roads I was pushing them too hard. The next update shows the gains from letting a sector rest.

In effect this stop/start aspect was something we wanted to achieve with the lowered logistics.

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

Well, you do have quantity that you must employ to compensate for the lack in quality.

Really interesting game, at the same time that you seem to be realizing the effect of the 95 setting, so am I and I'm beginning to like it. Mind you, I do think the Barbarossa time period would be a bit different with an Axis player that has experience against a 95 Soviet, so it's probably a one time affair this, at least with the current manpower multipliers.

I'm looking forward to read about your thoughts, plans and their implementation for '42 and onwards. Glad you liked the refill concept.

Oh, do prepare defensive lines along the Terek, just in case. Yes, that far back...

I have some very deep defense lines. I'm not sure what counts for the VP260 rule but I'm assuming that if I lose most of the Volga cities I am going to lose the game?

I agree its interesting (if a bit frustrating), this feels right in that I can do some serious damage but not really manage anything decisive.

I don't think I'd play around with the morale settings again, but would certainly drop the +1 rule when that option is available. The other thing we are seeing here is the impact of lowering the logistics value and that is also contributing to a stop-go feel to any offensive.

[loki100]

T32 22 January – 28 January 1942: "was like a Maelstorm"

With the offensive south of Moscow stalled, Stavka shifted attention back to the Klin-Povlovo sector. If Moscow was to be the main target of the Germans in 1942, this sector represented their main chance of encircling the city from the north.



Having spent 2 weeks recovering both Kalinin and North Western Fronts were relatively fresh. Equally partisan reports and air reconnaisance indicated that the Germans had weakened their defenses with the bulk of the Panzer and Motorised divisions no longer in reserve along the Larna.

NW Front took advantage of the German redeployment into hedgehogs as opposed to holding a continuous front by infiltrating elements of 52 Army to the south of Klin. In the meantime, the elite Siberian formations of 55 Army hastily deployed into the Konakovo sector and took the German V Infantry Corps by surprise. Heavily bombed by the VVS and left without any aircover, they fell back in some panic, allowing NW Front to encircle Klin to the north as well.



Kalinin Front followed up these successes. First the German airbases in the sector were heavily bombed and then paratroops cut the German communications leading back to Rzhev.


(Soviet paratroops)

Around Istra [1], the Kalinin Front was able to take advantage of gaps in the German front and outflank 8 Infantry corps. The same mixture of massed VVS attacks (with no luftwaffe response) and the bulk of 21 and 23 Armies hitting their positions, forced another German withdrawal.


(T-34s in action around Istra)

To the south of Mozhaisk, 20 Army, hit elements of 48 Infantry Corps. This time the Luftwaffe intervened but Soviet fighters managed to protect the bombers and again the German line cracked open.



At this stage, the German decision to defend strongpoints, rather than a continuous front, opened the possibility to threaten Kaluga from the north. Western Front's 13 Army launched a less well prepared attack and was hit by a speedy response from 15 Motorised. The result was a bloody failure, with Soviet dead piled up in front of the undamaged German defensive lines.



To exploit these victories, 4 Shock Army and Kalinin Front's 33 Army were moved out of reserve and deployed to take advantage of the chaos that NW and Kalinin Front had inflicted on the German lines in the Kalinin-Kaluga sector.



Overall losses reflected the limited range of fighting but the return to active operations on what had appeared to be a quiet front cost the Germans heavily. Axis losses were 56,000 men, 45 tanks and 33 aircraft. Soviet losses were 18,000 men and 21 tanks. The VVS paid a heavy price for providing the Soviet offensive with continuous support and lost 168 planes.

[1] SigUp has started leaving gaps in his front. Up to now, I've been cautious about poking my units in, but combined with successful attacks, it suddenly starts to open up potential for further gains.

[jwolf]

I'll be interested to read SigUp's reaction to this. The fighting is relentless and brutal. When your attacks succeed, your losses are OK, but when you lose they are dreadful. Good luck with the rest of the winter offensive.

[morvael]

I love the maps and the photos. I wish I had time to make something like this for my AAR... Mine looks like war diary of an accountant

[timmyab]

ORIGINAL: loki100
I have some very deep defense lines. I'm not sure what counts for the VP260 rule but I'm assuming that if I lose most of the Volga cities I am going to lose the game?

Assuming Moscow is Axis controlled he'll almost certainly need at least one and possibly two of the light urban Volga cities. Technically he could achieve 260 without even one of them, but it's highly unlikely.

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: jwolf

I'll be interested to read SigUp's reaction to this. The fighting is relentless and brutal. When your attacks succeed, your losses are OK, but when you lose they are dreadful. Good luck with the rest of the winter offensive.

I doubt he'll be happy to be honest.

The +1 rule is a nonsense, here the effects are partially mitigated by other settings (logistics and morale).

In one attack I started at 149-290 (as I said to him in an email this was a fishing expedition not a planned offensive). Now I did everything right, pre-attack bombing, 1000+ artillery units in action, numerical odds of 4-1. Also that sector is well led, I think that Malinovski as the army commander, Koniev is the front commander and the big Z lurks in the Kremlin (actually he is well to the rear of Moscow).

So I think, doing everything I could to improve my chances got me from 1-2 to 1-1, his command clearly had a series of brainfarts looking at the modifications, but in combination I shifted 3 well dug in infantry divisions.

My actual order of attacks was the opposite to how I wrote it up. Since I'd had some success around Kaluga last turn I started with 13A. Was on the verge of giving up with spoiling attacks but noticed that my 50+ morale units in 55A were up to 4 CV and 16 MP. So decided to attack up there.

Then saw the chance to maybe unhinge his Klin position by using that impassable lake around Volokotamsk.

But the one that went wrong, went very wrong, I didn't even damage his fort levels of all that slaughter.

If I am right, that I just need to rest units to mitigate the worst consequences, then I think I can carry on landing blows for the next 4-6 turns. I'm not going to gain much ground, but I am now simply trying to cause losses and maybe get a few units into the higher morale and/or Gds status.

ORIGINAL: morvael

I love the maps and the photos. I wish I had time to make something like this for my AAR... Mine looks like war diary of an accountant

I like finding the images, that one of Soviet paras in the snow was too good to miss.

Doing the maps that way helps to clarify things, especially when the fighting is over such a limited area. Equally it means I'm happy to post as the turns are done. It gives little away that a study of the combat reports won't reveal.

ORIGINAL: timmyab

ORIGINAL: loki100
I have some very deep defense lines. I'm not sure what counts for the VP260 rule but I'm assuming that if I lose most of the Volga cities I am going to lose the game?

Assuming Moscow is Axis controlled he'll almost certainly need at least one and possibly two of the light urban Volga cities. Technically he could achieve 260 without even one of them, but it's highly unlikely.

thanks for that, my assumption is he is going for Moscow, although his response to last turn may be instructive. If so, I assume it will fall, but I want it to absorb him for most of the summer season.

So that does that mean he needs Yaroslavl, Ivanovo and Gorky or also the towns on the central Volga like Kazan and Ulyanoysk?

The axis currently have 225 VPs (with Rostov and Leningrad).

[timmyab]

He'll almost certainly need Moscow plus at least one of the Volga cities. Yaroslavl, Gorky, Sarotov or Stalingrad. I think Moscow is 15 points so a 260 win is inconceivable without it unless the Soviet Union collapses. I actually think that Yaroslavl is the most tempting target because you'll almost certainly take Ivanovo at the same time for 6 points. Gorky is a nightmare to take and Sarotov and Stalingrad aren't much easier. Also none of these three cities are likely to be enough on their own. The Axis player is likely to need two of them or possibly one plus somewhere like Krasnodar or Ivanovo.

[STEF78]

Did you stop the offensive in the other parts of the front?

[loki100]

ORIGINAL: timmyab

He'll almost certainly need Moscow plus at least one of the Volga cities. Yaroslavl, Gorky, Sarotov or Stalingrad. I think Moscow is 15 points so a 260 win is inconceivable without it unless the Soviet Union collapses. I actually think that Yaroslavl is the most tempting target because you'll almost certainly take Ivanovo at the same time for 6 points. Gorky is a nightmare to take and Sarotov and Stalingrad aren't much easier. Also none of these three cities are likely to be enough on their own. The Axis player is likely to need two of them or possibly one plus somewhere like Krasnodar or Ivanovo.

thats useful thanks, supports my view that above all I need a defense in depth around and behind Moscow

ORIGINAL: STEF78

Did you stop the offensive in the other parts of the front?

for the moment yes, I'm hoping a couple of turns of rest will get the stacks built around 1 and 2 Shock back up to 9-10 CV. I'm no longer expecting to capture much ground (and in truth I don't think I'd hold it for long come good weather), so my goal now is to hand out some damage and try to build Gds/morale if I can.

[Gabriel B.]

ORIGINAL: timmyab

He'll almost certainly need Moscow plus at least one of the Volga cities. Yaroslavl, Gorky, Sarotov or Stalingrad. I think Moscow is 15 points so a 260 win is inconceivable without it unless the Soviet Union collapses. I actually think that Yaroslavl is the most tempting target because you'll almost certainly take Ivanovo at the same time for 6 points. Gorky is a nightmare to take and Sarotov and Stalingrad aren't much easier. Also none of these three cities are likely to be enough on their own. The Axis player is likely to need two of them or possibly one plus somewhere like Krasnodar or Ivanovo.

Sig up needs them all,

it is basicly the entire western bank of the Volga + some cities in the Caucasus (krasnodar- novorosik )
with the 280 you need to secure the eastern bank as well pluss capture Grozni .

[timmyab]

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.

Sig up needs them all,

Not so. See Tarhunus v timmyab.
You might be neglecting to add the bonus for controlling the Soviet capital?