Bob Flemin' Fall Gelb AARse.....

[warspite1]

Its the age old problem with the French Fleet. In any game that goes the distance the French are going to exit the war. So why not simply use the French Fleet as a suicide squad - no downside, only upside.

If the CW want to do this then that is different - the French doing it is a step too far for me.

The threat was from the Polish Flotilla - except of course it isn't because of the OOS situation.... or the RN sending a couple of old D-class ships in perhaps.

[warspite1]

Scenario A
Sep/Oct 1939
Impulse: 4

The CW really choose a naval, the French a land and the USSR a combined.

The Royal Navy set about covering their convoys with the 0,1 and 4 boxes covered where necessary.

Just as importantly they get a second fleet to sea to provide shore bombardment if required to BEF units in France or Belgium.

The learning process continues meantime. Setting aside the Queens for Wavell was a waste of time as these glorious ships cannot transport MECH or ARM. This compromises the CW bringing Wavell to France.

Irritatingly the Royal Navy cannot locate the German Invasion Flotilla as it speeds back toward Kiel.

[warspite1]

Scenario A
Sep/Oct 1939
Impulse: 4

The Soviets march into Eastern Poland - and the highest German chit is removed [8|]. This is Scenario A so things should be going well for the Germans - however I am barely having to change any dice rolls as the computer seems to know what to roll! [;)]

The French army is looking incredibly light in northern France.

The 5th Corps are racing to the east as quickly as possible, but I am going to have to consider reorganising the 7th Corps and the Paris Militia if an attack on Belgium is successful.

[warspite1]

Scenario A
Sep/Oct 1939
Impulse: 4

I lose my bottle - the French do indeed disorganise General Georges in order to bring the following units into the French OOB:

- 12th Infantry Corps
- 7th Infantry Corps
- Paris Militia


The weather throw is a 6 - the North Temperate remains Fine....

[warspite1]

Scenario A
Sep/Oct 1939
Impulse: 5

The Germans declare war on Belgium. The US Entry throw takes entry back to 20 / 7. The Italians remain out of war at present.

Belgium aligns with the CW.

Another learning experience. With a TRS set aside as the fourth unit I could have the British 7th Mechanised Corps at sea to bolster the defence.

With a 1939 attack there is no Belgian Air Force to oppose the German advance.

The Belgians set up along the border to give time for the CW to land:

1st Corps guards Liege
2nd Corps is stationed in Antwerp
Cavalry Corps between the Dyle and the Meuse.

[Orm]

In my opinion the Belgian set up is really bad and helps Germany a lot in conquering Belgium easily. Germany should fairly easy be able to capture all three cities in Belgium. And two of them should be close to automatic attacks. [:(]

Edit: Surrendering Brussels in '39 without a fight feels terrible wrong to me.

[warspite1]

Well:

a) clearly surrendering Belgium without a fight is not the gameplan [&:]
b) I left this as is so people could comment

Rationale.

1. Placing the Cavalry Corps between the Dyle and the Meuse was designed expressly to ensure an attack on Antwerp is risky.

Units available to the Germans for this attack (and their attack strength) are:

- DAK Panzer Corps (7)
- 43rd Infantry Corps (7)
- 14th (SS) Infantry Division (1)

That is a 15:4 attack and likely 4:1 Assault no modifiers.
The Luftwaffe has no bombers left and neither the Me-109's as fighter-bombers will reach Antwerp.

What does this leave the German Army with for other attacks?

If they wanted/needed them, only three corps and an AA can attack the cavalry:

- 7th Motorised Corps (8)
- 1st Infantry Corps (9)
- 63rd Infantry Corps (5)
- 88mm Division (3)

So they could drop the 63rd Infantry and still likely get the automatic.

This leaves Liege. The Germans have to be careful before pushing sole units over the Meuse in case of a French counter-attack, but regardless of whether they do that gives a maximum of:

- von Rundstedt (7)
- 30th Infantry Corps (5)
- 63rd Infantry Corps (5)
- 50mm AT (2)
+ 6 factors of fighter-bomber support.

That is a 25:5 - 5:1 Assault no modifiers.

These attacks see everything the Germans have left (except one fighter) thrown into the battle.

[Orm]

4:1 on Antwerp -> 90% to capture Antwerp.
7:1 on the cavalry -> 100% to capture Brussels.
5:1 on Liege -> 100% to capture Liege.

Edit: Why they can not change the units attacking the cavalry or Antwerp eludes me. [:(]

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

4:1 on Antwerp -> 90% to capture Antwerp.
7:1 on the cavalry -> 100% to capture Brussels.
5:1 on Liege -> 100% to capture Liege.

Edit: Why they can not change the units attacking the cavalry or Antwerp eludes me. [:(]

warspite1

Right - good point on Brussels because of the Blitz Brussels falls.

No idea what the edit refers to though.... who is they?

So what would your placement be?

[Orm]

What odds does Germany get on Antwerp with the two Belgian infantry defending the city? 4:1?

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

4:1 on Antwerp -> 90% to capture Antwerp.
7:1 on the cavalry -> 100% to capture Brussels.
5:1 on Liege -> 100% to capture Liege.

Edit: Why they can not change the units attacking the cavalry or Antwerp eludes me. [:(]

warspite1

Right - good point on Brussels because of the Blitz Brussels falls.

No idea what the edit refers to though.... who is they?

So what would your placement be?

The Germans. I read your post as the Germans can not exchange the units attacking Antwerp.

[Orm]

So what would your placement be?

My first impulse is two infantry in Antwerp and one cavalry in Liege.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

What odds does Germany get on Antwerp with the two Belgian infantry defending the city? 4:1?

warspite1

The best I can get (using von Rundstedt) is 33 attack factors. So likely 4:1 with Fractional.

This would leave 7:1 vs Liege.

[Jagdtiger14]

If using your plan above:

1. Attacking the units between the Dyle and the Meuse should be a blitz...which will then allow you to blitz into an open Brussels.

2. I would put the 5pt Belgian INF in Antwerp since the Germans can only get one hex on it...I would use the strongest German factors vs this if the 5pt gets placed here.

Ah, yes, no CW pilot from the Belgian air in 1939.

I don't think it really matters much where you put the Belgians. My set up:

5pt and 4pt in Antwerp, 3pt in Liege. This way the Germans can not get Brussels this impulse, and will force them to make a land move next impulse (as opposed to giving them the option to do a naval).

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Jagdtiger14

If using your plan above:

1. Attacking the units between the Dyle and the Meuse should be a blitz...which will then allow you to blitz into an open Brussels.

2. I would put the 5pt Belgian INF in Antwerp since the Germans can only get one hex on it...I would use the strongest German factors vs this if the 5pt gets placed here.

Ah, yes, no CW pilot from the Belgian air in 1939.

I don't think it really matters much where you put the Belgians. My set up:

5pt and 4pt in Antwerp, 3pt in Liege. This way the Germans can not get Brussels this impulse, and will force them to make a land move next impulse (as opposed to giving them the option to do a naval).

warspite1

See post 169

[warspite1]

.

[Orm]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

What odds does Germany get on Antwerp with the two Belgian infantry defending the city? 4:1?

warspite1

The best I can get (using von Rundstedt) is 33 attack factors. So likely 4:1 with Fractional.

This would leave 7:1 vs Liege.

Splendid. 40% chance that Germany do not capture Antwerp. And if they do not then the Allies can reinforce both Antwerp and Brussels.

But maybe Germany will play an offensive chit now?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

4:1 on Antwerp -> 90% to capture Antwerp.
7:1 on the cavalry -> 100% to capture Brussels.
5:1 on Liege -> 100% to capture Liege.

Edit: Why they can not change the units attacking the cavalry or Antwerp eludes me. [:(]

warspite1

Right - good point on Brussels because of the Blitz Brussels falls.

No idea what the edit refers to though.... who is they?

So what would your placement be?

The Germans. I read your post as the Germans can not exchange the units attacking Antwerp.

warspite1

Well they can - to limited extent - but not that will make a difference to the odds. If you want to use von Rundstedt in the attack on Antwerp then you can, the infantry or armour can be used against Liege.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Orm

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Orm

What odds does Germany get on Antwerp with the two Belgian infantry defending the city? 4:1?

warspite1

The best I can get (using von Rundstedt) is 33 attack factors. So likely 4:1 with Fractional.

This would leave 7:1 vs Liege.

Splendid. 40% chance that Germany do not capture Antwerp. And if they do not then the Allies can reinforce both Antwerp and Brussels.

But maybe Germany will play an offensive chit now?

warspite1

I am assuming this makes sense. This whole plan is to ensure Belgium, Holland and Denmark are taken out in the first turn. I cannot see why they would run the risk of falling short now - particularly if in so doing they do not need to use von Rundstedt in the attack and so can use his reorganisation powers.

[warspite1]

Scenario A
Sep/Oct 1939
Impulse: 5

Right the Germans need to make sure of securing Belgium - and of being able to meet any Allied threats that come from the Allies prior to taking Brussels.

For this reason they use an Offensive Chit. The revised Belgian set-up sees a covering force in Liege and the bulk of the troops committed to defence of the port of Antwerp (both infantry corps).

The Germans rail the 11th Motorised Corps into Krakow.