Moderator: maddog986
ORIGINAL: Alfred
The funniest thing in this thread is the oft repeated claim that commercial war game designers support this fantasy and therefore it isn't a fantasy. Commercial war game designers are not professional military planners.
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
ORIGINAL: warspite1
I don’t understand what Rommel is doing at this point, why he is in Tripoli? and having fallen back from where?? And I'm sorry but I don’t get the de Gaulle reference either, but I'll ignore them for now and try and get started on the blitz through Spain and Turkey scenario.
Rommel knows what's coming. So, he will want to lure the 8th Army into Libya so it will be trapped there. De Gaulle was the one who harangued them into invading Syria.
So you believe the ‘blitz’ through Spain happens in 1940. When? How do you see this as coming about?
The defeat of France, in the timescale achieved, just isn’t expected by anyone. Here the Germans are in mid-June and French forces are being overrun everywhere. Reynaud hopes to get agreement for the government and as much of the military as possible to get to French North Africa, where General Nogues is itching to continue the fight. This would be based around the fleet (pretty much intact), an air force (essentially just as numerous as it was on May 10th) and as many of the circa 500,000 troops still free from German capture as would be possible to get away – plus whatever units are in other overseas territories. But Petain and Weygand have other ideas.
Hitler can’t believe his luck. He desperately wants to come to an agreement – one that will give the French a degree of sovereignty and so give French overseas possessions a legitimate government to rally to – and stay out of the clutches of Britain - but at the same time a large part of Northern France will be occupied in order to give the Germans a base from which to take the war to the British.
An armistice is agreed that takes effect on the 25th June 1940.
So, first questions/thoughts.
1. Everything has happened very fast since May 10th, and even quicker since the start of June. So what happens now? And I hope we can be realistic in timescales here. Hitler won't (as per historical) get his head around what is happening to the French, much less plan out his next moves. So he doesn't give his mind to this until the armistice is signed. Agreed?
2. In deciding on this Mediterranean strategy, are you suggesting that Hitler immediately realises that Britain can’t be invaded?
3. Presumably the German army and air force need time for rest and refit, replenishment etc.
4. Hitler will also need his generals to come up with plans for this Mediterranean strategy. Hitler will need to see Franco as clearly (as in real life) his initial wish would be for Franco to join the Axis.
5. We know that Franco can’t/won’t agree to Hitler’s request. So when are the German army sufficiently recuperated to take up their next assignment? What are we talking about – late July / early August?
6. But there is now a potential problem. For Operation Felix the thin corridor in Western France was no issue for a German army being invited in to Spain. But for the German blitz, that means a very narrow, mountainous front for the Spanish to defend. Thoughts?
7. What is happening in Britain at this point? There are no preparations being made for Sea Lion (and that is a welcome saving for Germany because the requisitioning of so many barges (largely from the River Rhine) was to have an adverse impact on the German economy that won’t now happen.
8. But this leaves Britain to re-build largely un-molested. Getting wind of German troop movements to southwest France, it seems likely that two things will happen. A) Reinforcement of Gibraltar with aircraft and troops. B) As British units are brought back up to strength, a reserve can be brought together to assist the Spanish as soon as the Germans set foot in the peninsular. Spanish Morocco could be used as a base for operations. The Canaries and the Balearics could be occupied by British troops, aircraft and a naval presence.
9. With a battle to be fought for Spain/Gibraltar, ill-advised side shows like Menace likely won’t happen in September.
10. So let’s say it’s July 1940. What do you envisage is happening in the Mediterranean east of Gibraltar?
As I said at the start, this is the plan from the beginning. Once Vichy is in place, overwhelming force will be made ready for Spain. They will have the rest of the Summer and Fall to complete the operation.
Spain is at peace - with a peace-time army. Once invaded they may be too far gone to even get their reserves called up.
Contrary to some other poster, the Germans will achieve strategic surprise. How on Earth could the Spanish know what was coming?
And the narrow frontage is no worse than invading France through the Ardennes - bypassing the Maginot line.
In North Africa, the Italians know what is coming, so they fall back out of the trap that they were in for Compass.
What is the UK doing? They barely got their BEF back - without heavy equipment. They don't know Sealion is off.
; Julia Child
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
Contrary to some other poster, the Germans will achieve strategic surprise. How on Earth could the Spanish know what was coming?
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
They make more of them.
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
Let's see, he allows Germany to move its Polish border over 400 km closer to Moscow in 1939. He allows Germany to focus almost its entire armed forces against France and knock the only other major power on the continent out. Both of those moves far exceed the threat to Russia that German possession of the straits does.
Nevertheless, whatever he chooses to do works for the Germans.
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
German action against Spain will telegraph that Barbarossa is off and the Japs will better wait to invade French Indochina. That was what triggered the embargo.
ORIGINAL: warspite1
Okay can we step back please?
There is no 8th Army at this point.
I need to understand why you are talking about Rommel. You said it's 1940. We have literally just got to the armistice. What is Rommel doing in Libya. How is he luring the WDF back into into Libya when Graziani hasn't even moved into Egypt at this point?
Why are you talking about Syria at this point?
Can we please re-wind to Post 134. If Rommel is in Libya - deep into Libya (with what?) then I feel there are about a million steps that have been glossed over here?
How are the British aware Sea Lion is even being contemplated? There is no build up of barges, there (seemingly) is no Luftwaffe action in the Channel.
ORIGINAL: warspite1
Okay, so in getting Hitler to change his mind in order to explore this Mediterranean strategy, you are also suggesting that Goering be allowed to completely change his view on the Luftwaffe and the Kriegsmarine. Sorry but I'm not feeling this is a sensible what-if, but instead is starting to become fantasy. Are the British commanders allowed to completely act opposite to how they went about things historically too? Goering is NOT going to be persuaded to build more aircraft that make the Kriegsmarine look good, and even if he did, what happens about their torpedoes?
Nope. This is using hindsight. Stalin chose to do a deal because a) he got territory to use as a buffer with Germany (remember Germany and Poland had a non-aggression pact at one point) and b) his thinking was perfectly reasonable.
There was no one on god's sweet earth that believed the French would be destroyed by the Germans in six weeks. Stalin's view, that the western powers would fight each other to exhaustion a la WWI, was perfectly reasonable.
But according to your timescale its July 1940. How does the Germans preparing to attack Spain telegraph to Japan that Barbarossa (that plans for aren't even started to be drawn up for until August!) is postponed?
Are you also saying that these incredibly well clued up Japanese knew that if they invade French Indo-China, that will bring an oil embargo? They can't have, because it didn't.
ORIGINAL: Bo Rearguard
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
Contrary to some other poster, the Germans will achieve strategic surprise. How on Earth could the Spanish know what was coming?
Through Admiral Canaris for one. Hitler's spymaster and the head of the Abwehr who did everything he could to frustrate Operation Felix. Conversations from this period between Franco and Admiral Canaris remain a mystery since none were recorded, but the Spanish government later expressed gratitude to the widow of Canaris at the conclusion of the Second World War by paying her a pension.
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
How is the Luftwaffe supposed to get more suddenly trained aircrew and ground crew for this anti-shipping strike force? Where is the rubber coming from? The Soviet Union who got it from Malaya? Where are the airfields? Are there enough in that part of France? If not, don't you think that the Spanish would find out about the construction of new ones and act accordingly?
Any bridges would then have explosives ready to be emplaced and used on the main roads to best effect as well as for the bridges. No panzers can easily move through big road craters in roads, Not to mention a sudden fall of big rocks when moving through any narrow passages and the engineers would have a hard time repairing bridges or building new ones while under fire. To move the enemy away, infantry would have to move across any river/stream which, if it rains in the mountains, can easily and quickly reach the dangerous flood stage. That is not to mention that if there are any dams that their water could be released on demand - carrying logs other debris with the water to injure/kill any enemy soldiers. Flash floods carrying debris with it are not fun.
In the meantime, the RAF and the RN are not sitting around. Even DDs coming in to bombard along the coast could be a problem. Those ships are fast and hard to hit. Add in some cruisers for even more damage. Some Commandos or their forerunners could come in quick and start doing damage to roads, railroads, and bridges in SW France hindering the movement of units,and supplies.
During this time, some of the looted gold was sold by Germany through Spain. I recall reading that it was at least 50 tons. How does Germany now sell that to purchase necessary materials in the world markets?
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
There are two treads to this discussion: Spain and Turkey. You've got to be able to keep them separate in your head somehow. The Rommel thing was related to the operation in Turkey. That's in 1941.
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
How would they know it's not? There's a huge army staring across the channel from them. And, if they want to, some barges could be positioned - or faked, like with Patton - to trick them.
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
Of course if circumstances change production decisions will change. It's absurd to think otherwise. And, since the BoB isn't going to take place, plenty of spare aircraft production. All they're going to build are stukas anyway. Perfectly useful for the army, too.
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
He had Poland as a buffer before. Much better. No question that he was worse off after Poland.
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
But allowing almost the entire Wehrmacht to be used? It can only be explained by Stalin not thinking he was on the menu. He still thought they were a team.
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
Regardless, there is no way the Rising Sun offensive takes place with Russia unencumbered.
ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
How is the Luftwaffe supposed to get more suddenly trained aircrew and ground crew for this anti-shipping strike force? Where is the rubber coming from? The Soviet Union who got it from Malaya? Where are the airfields? Are there enough in that part of France? If not, don't you think that the Spanish would find out about the construction of new ones and act accordingly?
Are you seriously saying that Germany will not be able to produce any more aircraft for the duration of the war? Think of the savings from not having a BoB. Germany was making artificial rubber via coal. There are airfields in France. Close enough to support the initial invasion. From that point, fields could be captured or built.
The production was limited and difficult to expand due to costs and the lack of materials such as building steel. It was also more expensive than natural rubber. Where were those airfields located and what was their condition? Grass or concrete. Savings from the Battle of Britain? What would the RAF be doing, playing bridge?
The Spanish would expect some German troops in the area. Impossible to discern their magnitude or intent. Remember the 1st Airborne was dropped on top of the II SS Panzer Corps later.
But how many, where, and what type of units? That much armour would send up red flags. It is possible to determine magnitude or intent based on what the units are doing and what equipment they have. Obviously you have had no training in that regard. What does the operations Market and Garden have to do with this? Remember that the anti-Fascists were working with the French resistance.
Any bridges would then have explosives ready to be emplaced and used on the main roads to best effect as well as for the bridges. No panzers can easily move through big road craters in roads, Not to mention a sudden fall of big rocks when moving through any narrow passages and the engineers would have a hard time repairing bridges or building new ones while under fire. To move the enemy away, infantry would have to move across any river/stream which, if it rains in the mountains, can easily and quickly reach the dangerous flood stage. That is not to mention that if there are any dams that their water could be released on demand - carrying logs other debris with the water to injure/kill any enemy soldiers. Flash floods carrying debris with it are not fun.
The terrain in the corridor looks like hills. Mountains are to the east of it. Regardless, this is standard warfare. Bridges are blown and repaired. Nevertheless, strategic surprise will lessen that.
So it is standard warfare and there is no guarantee of strategic surprise. How easy is it to repair a bridge when the troops are being killed and wounded? I don't think that it would be very easy but first, troops have to reach the other side and secure it. all that takes time away and it is not longer a fast advance.
Furthermore, Vichy was negotiated without intent to invade Spain. If that was the plan, a larger corridor could have been bargained for in exchange for terrain somewhere else.
No corridor was bargained for, it was to the extent of the German advance and they had to rush to get that far. The Germans did not want any Vichy territory on the Atlantic coast.
Furthermore, SPI's War in Europe has a Spanish army of 9, not very powerful, divisions. Only one in the corridor area. As I've said, the professionals are on my side.
Who gives a rat's posterior about SPI's War in Europe? You don't need much power in that type of terrain, units can be relocated, the locals would be coming out after the Germans as well. Don't you think that the veteran guerillas would be helping Franco, even if they fought against him?
In the meantime, the RAF and the RN are not sitting around. Even DDs coming in to bombard along the coast could be a problem. Those ships are fast and hard to hit. Add in some cruisers for even more damage. Some Commandos or their forerunners could come in quick and start doing damage to roads, railroads, and bridges in SW France hindering the movement of units,and supplies.
A fantasy. They would not risk their fleet or their aircraft to save Spain with an invasion staring at them. And the area is going to be far too dense with troops to allow commandos.
Your fantasy to think that the British and Commonwealth would not since they would see the target would be The Rock. It would not be that great a risk. It was more of a risk to help the Greeks which they did later at the expense of the North Afrikan campaign and more of a risk to help Norway.
During this time, some of the looted gold was sold by Germany through Spain. I recall reading that it was at least 50 tons. How does Germany now sell that to purchase necessary materials in the world markets?
Gold is fungible. The Swiss?
They were using the Swiss as well but the Swiss would/could only do so much. Spain was where a lot of resources came in from South America enroute to Germany.
; Julia ChildDerinkuyu is the deepest excavated underground city in Cappadocia in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. A beautiful natural wonder with impressive fairy chimneys and eroded caverns, Cappadocia is an amazing geological spectacle. It is also riddled with extensive subterranean dwellings and secret tunnel passages that various people utilized for shelter across the centuries. There are hundreds of these homes in the region, and Derinkuyu is the most famous. At a depth of more than 250 feet with a capacity of up to 20,000 people, this multi-leveled city contained everything an entire population would need to survive a history riddled with invasions.
; Julia Childwarspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
Nevertheless, strategic surprise will lessen that
warspite1ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay
...Spanish army of 9, not very powerful, divisions
; Julia Child ORIGINAL: warspite1
But why would you possibly approach it from that angle? We are looking at a what-if that involves a German Mediterranean first strategy. In order to put forward a case one needs to work through what happens from the defeat of the French to the launch of Barbarossa 1942. How would this possibly work otherwise? An extreme example to prove a point; Suppose we both agreed that the German naval air took a total pasting over Gibraltar. This would impact the use of Malta, it would likely impact operations in the Eastern Mediterranean. But you seem to be wanting to say whatever happens in 1941 is totally separate to anything that happens in 1940. Well the Commonwealth forces in Egypt/Libya that are required to meet any advance from Turkey, will be affected by what happens in 1940. You can't separate, into hermetically sealed time capsules, Spain from Malta from Libya from Yugoslavia/Greece from Turkey and whatever else comes into play as a result.
The deception that was FUSAG was an enormous undertaking using false radio comms and thousands upon thousands of dummy tanks, aircraft, trucks etc. Something that the resources available to the allies allowed them to undertake, even in 1944. Are you suggesting the Germans could just take 'some' old barges and what? deposit them in Boulogne and expect the British to think "Lumme! there's an invasion due!". You don't think perhaps the Germans would actually need to put a bit of effort into it? I am quite sure they were also sufficiently capable of doing a good deception job, but that is going to take resource and, perhaps more importantly, time. Besides which, do you not think that Dowding would be just a little perplexed by having no Luftwaffe interference over the Channel or the southeast of England?
And so, in addition to a strange lack of action or lack of anything really along the Channel coast, there are reports of a German "Army Group" and a large number of Luftwaffe units heading to Bordeaux and environs.....
ORIGINAL: warspite1
Within reason yes, because its not much of a 'what-if' if everyone has to act in accordance with their historical behaviour. That said, there has to be limitations or the whole thing becomes meaningless. "Right, let's see what happens if the Germans never make a mistake and, regardless of what they do, the allies are bound to recreate theirs".
In coming up with this we've made a massive alteration in Hitler's raison d'etre - but sorry, changing everyone's behaviour so that regardless of their limitations or deep-seated hatreds, or simple short comings in ability and judgement, they now act for the good of the 1,000 year Reich?? This needs to be tempered.
Hindsight. He could not guarantee he had Poland as a buffer. When he did - because the NS Pact told him German intentions he, not unreasonably expected the Germans and Western Allies to fight each other to exhaustion - or if there was a winner then that winner would be exhausted.
warspite1
Hindsight. a) how could he TELL Hitler what he could and couldn't use against the west, and b) there was potentially almost as big a danger for him that the Western Allies destroyed Hitler.
So you are saying the Japanese back down and leave China with all that means in terms of loss of face? And despite what happens in Europe you are certain the US won't at any point think "Do you know what? I think we've got this wrong......"?
