The Oder must hold! VtB: xhoel (Axis) vs Gunnulf (Soviet)

[loki100]

that is really interesting - as you say you tend to lose focus of this granuality and its fascinating to reflect on.

[Lovenought]

That's very intriguing.

So even in the very late-war, German armoured formations can be rehabilitated fairly successfully. It's easy for them to win and climb above NM.

Imagine how much more effective they would be in an alternate, natural 1945 resulting from a 1941 GC, where you have preserved much better stockpiles of manpower and equipment.

I'm really looking forward to seeing 1945 battles in other full campaigns. I feel like it won't be anything like the historical route it was.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

Great stuff xhoel! Brings back fond memories of loki's XXX Corps AAR from WITW.

[xhoel]

@loki100 and Sammy: Glad you find it interesting, took a while to get this all organized but I am glad I put in the work.

@Lovenought: Considering that this is probably the best preserved armored formation I have, I wouldnt read too much into it.

ORIGINAL: Lovenought

Imagine how much more effective they would be in an alternate, natural 1945 resulting from a 1941 GC, where you have preserved much better stockpiles of manpower and equipment.

I'm really looking forward to seeing 1945 battles in other full campaigns. I feel like it won't be anything like the historical route it was.

They wouldnt be that much effective as from my experience there are hidden caps that affect how high the morale can go in comparison to the NM. So the unit had morale 80 on T14 and that didnt increase even though I won another battle on T15. And there will be manpower and equipment shortages in the late war if you are playing against an experienced opponent.

I have seen late war StB games (reaching May 1945) in the Dev forums. The situation is better since neither player will make the mistakes that were done historically but it still is quite in line with history. It would however be great to see more GC 41 games go into the late war. Glad to see some of them have already reached the mid war point and are heading into 1944.

[Hardradi]

Great post.

[tm1]

Things not looking as good as it could be, time for 9th Armee and 12th Armee to produce the miracle the Fuhrer was hoping for [:D]


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPCWO-wZaLo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHT2y4QKVMo

A couple of great videos from Doctor Mark Felton on both Armee's last stand in 1945


regards

[xhoel]

@Hardradi: Thanks mate!

@tm1: True, but no miracle is happening any time soon. I like Mark Feltons videos, seen a few of them before, including the ones you linked. Good stuff.

Stay tuned, update dropping tomorrow afternoon.

[xhoel]

T17, 5th May 1945

Army Group North

Soviets have cleared the Liepaja port and both defending German divisions have surrendered, together with the AA defending the port and the HQ. 8.700 men lost. The attack on Ventspils fails so the port is saved for now, another division moved in to help the defense. HQ is moved out to sea. I am not a fan of having to sit my HQ out at sea just because of the hex stacking limits but had to be done.






Northern Sector

The Soviets continue their push north unstopped. Multiple regiments of the 16th Army have either been shattered or routed. Armored spearheads have reached the outskirts of Rostock. The garrison in the city has been reinforced with an additional division. Meanwhile, units have been rushed to Hamburg to prevent a capture of the city from the Soviets. The units have orders to surrender the city to the Americans without a fight.

North start of the week:



North after:



Berlin sector

The enemy has finally reached the outskirts of Berlin while their southern push continues but no major breakthrough has been achieved. With the forces now isolated, there is no reason to overextend the flank to the south and north. Forces have been reorganized and ordered to move into Berlin and surroundings, strengthening the defenses for the capital. Army Group Vistula breaks contact with Army Group A defending Leipzig and Dresden. Luftflotte 6 flies supplies to Dresden and Berlin. The garrison of Berlin now stands at 85k men strong.



Battles in the sector:



Berlin after:



Dreseden and Prague

Heavy combat in Dresden last week, two Soviet attacks repulsed but the garrison has been completely drained. New formations ordered to help reinforce the position. Dresden is living up to its Festung designation. To the south, the Soviets cleared the outskirts of Prague and launched direct attacks on the city. The first one was repulsed but the second one succeeded and the city has fallen to the enemy. 4th Panzer Army sees little combat as the Soviets are still catching up. Defenses of Army Group A now separated in 2 sectors, located in and around depots. The first one is around Leipzig and on the Oder, the secondary one is around Pilsen. Anything in between (with exception of cities) has been evacuated.

Wiking SS Division merged with multiple SS regiments and brought back to strength. Ready TOE of 72%, morale 76, 71 AFVs (divisional), 127 AFVs in total. The unit has been ordered to Dresden and will be fighting in the city to their last.



Prague Battles:





Battle of Dresden:



Leipzig and Pilsen sectors after Axis moves:





Wiking SS Panzer Division:



Army Group South relatively quiet. The Americans take Salzburg and Upper Austria as hoped. What is left of the 1st Panzer Army pulls back to the mountain ranges. 13th SS Mountain Division hit hard by Soviet attacks.

AGS after Axis moves:





Front Overview:

[xhoel]

Losses

Irrecoverable losses at 52.000 men this week. Material losses also high, almost 2.000 guns lost as well as 585 AFVs. No more replacements coming in so units will have to be cannibalized to allow them to maintain their strength. 17 Divisions as well as dozens of regiments merged this week.

Losses in the air at 113 aircraft. LW ordered to fly GS next week to assist as much as possible with the battles.

[xhoel]

Just a small update: As I expected, Berlin fell on Soviet T19. The game ends in a minor Soviet Victory. Congrats to Gunnulf for putting up a good game!

I will post updates for Turn 18 and 19 as well as a last update from the end game save. I have a lot of comments and thoughts on this scenario and will probably make a separate post about it after those turn updates are done.

[shakesphere1979]

Is there anyway you could post the counter mod? I really like it and It seems to no longer be linked in the post you referenced.

Thanks!

[xhoel]

Is there anyway you could post the counter mod? I really like it and It seems to no longer be linked in the post you referenced.

Thanks!

I dont have the mod saved separately somewhere sorry. You will probably need to ask the original creator for it.

[loki100]

its a pity to get such an anti-climatic end, partly due to game scale etc but its the sort of situation where a more granular breakdown of time would be more satisfying?

Anyway, as usual, well written and presented AAR and you certainly did your best to exploit the few opportunities you had

[jlbhung]

Is there anyway you could post the counter mod? I really like it and It seems to no longer be linked in the post you referenced.

Thanks!

I dont have the mod saved separately somewhere sorry. You will probably need to ask the original creator for it.

I think the attachment is removed when Matrix upgraded the forum. While I heard that attachments from the old forum will be transferred to the new one, I don't know how long it will take. So I already uploaded the counter mod back to the original post myself.

[tm1]

Just a small update: As I expected, Berlin fell on Soviet T19. The game ends in a minor Soviet Victory. Congrats to Gunnulf for putting up a good game!

I will post updates for Turn 18 and 19 as well as a last update from the end game save. I have a lot of comments and thoughts on this scenario and will probably make a separate post about it after those turn updates are done.

Dam I thought you were going to hold out, well done to both of you though.

look forward to the reading the breakdown of the last turns.

Hope both of you decide to revisit the scenario if and when they fix " The replacement " issue and also the " Berlin isolation " issue.

Cheers

[xhoel]

its a pity to get such an anti-climatic end, partly due to game scale etc but its the sort of situation where a more granular breakdown of time would be more satisfying?

I think it has more to do with some of the issues that we have already talked about regarding Urban Combat. Will be shown in the next two updates and in the general post regarding issues but, Berlin fell within 2 weeks of fighting. The garrison was 10 Division strong many of which were at full strength. Similar issue affected Prague whose fall meant the whole Wehrmacht went into isolated mode. Its a bummer, but hopefully the feedback will help the devs make the needed changes so that this stuff doesnt happen again.

Anyway, as usual, well written and presented AAR and you certainly did your best to exploit the few opportunities you had

Thank you Roger, looking forward to seeing your game progress into the late war!

Dam I thought you were going to hold out, well done to both of you though.

look forward to the reading the breakdown of the last turns.

I thought so too, but after seeing the results of the first battle of Berlin, I knew the city would fall within a week. Discouraging to see such decisive battles end this way. Thank you, Gunnulf will be posting here once the two other updates are out, so you will get to hear his side of the story soon.

Hope both of you decide to revisit the scenario if and when they fix " The replacement " issue and also the " Berlin isolation " issue.
Cheers

I will revisit the scenario for sure. Am interested to give the Soviets a go, but will only try it once the issues that affect the Axis so much are fixed.

Updates will probably drop either today or tomorrow so keep an eye out!

[xhoel]

T18, May 12th 1945

Kurland AGV and Berlin

12th Panzer Division surrenders after heavy combat. Only 3 divisions left in Ventspils now. The garrison will probably fall next week but has orders to fight to the last.
Rostock garrison has surrendered after heavy combat against the 49th Army. 20.000 men lost in the fighting (including HQ and SU units). Schleswig-Holstein surrenders to the WA as planned. Only the IX Corps remains in the north, defending Schwerin.

Heavy fighting taking place in and around Berlin. North-Eastern Berlin has fallen to the Soviets but we still hold the rest of the city. The noose is tightening on our positions and our formations defending outside of the capital have been decimated. Multiple units have surrendered. We continue to merge units to bring whatever formations we have up to strength. The garrison of Berlin is now 10 division strong. 140.000 men are defending Berlin proper.

AGN after:



Rostock after, with battle shown:



NE Berlin battle:



Berlin sector after:



Leipzig-Dresden sector

The fresh garrison of Dresden has managed to hold back another 2 Soviet assault. The enemy has taken heavy losses, but our units have been decimated as well. We are still holding on to the Elbe river line. Leipzig is being reinforced. Dresden will probably fall next week.

Soviet press in the 4th Panzer Army sector is getting stronger. A number of divisions have been hit hard, some have surrendered, others are falling back towards Pilsen. The city itself is being defended by 3 of our best divisions in the sector.

Leipzig-Dresden sector before:



Battle of Dresden:



Leipzig-Dresden sector after:



4th Army sector before:



Battles in the sector:



4th Army sector after:



Army Group South after:



Army Group South battles:



Overview North and South:

[xhoel]

Losses and OOB

Losses have skyrocketed this week as multiple units have surrendered. A total of 180.000 irrecoverable losses taken this week, of which almost 150.000 are POWs. Equipment losses are high too, 600 AFVs and 3.462 guns. The Soviets have lost 45k men as irrecoverable losses this week.

In the Air, the LW has probably flown its final sorties. 811 aircraft lost together with 583 pilots. The Soviets have lost almost 1.600 aircraft.

OOB has fallen for both sides. Soviets have dropped to 5.3 million men. Their logistic system seems to be absolutely abysmal and the OOB numbers are reflecting that.

[xhoel]

T19, 19th May 1945

Army Group North has finally surrendered and the Kurland pocket has ceased to exist. The last 3 divisions defending the port of Ventspils fought to the last man but were forced to lay down their weapons after running out of ammunition and supplies.

The Soviets have met up with the Americans in the north and cleared the German units that were still holding a thin line there. Only Schwerin remains in our hands, all other units of the 16th Army have surrendered.

Kurland and North Germany:





The enemy has cleared the perimeter around Berlin. Schoenefeld, Staaken, Potsdam and the surrounding towns have fallen. Many HQs (including OKL and OKH) have been destroyed so the C&C situation is quite bad. Brandenburg, Rathenaw and Berlin remain in our hands. The city of Berlin was able to withstand very powerful attacks this week. The fighting has been extremely bloody. In West Berlin, the 110.000 men strong garrison induced 37.5k losses to the enemy and managed to hold their ground. Losses on our side close to 5k men. In Berlin proper the fighting was even heavier. The 142.000 men strong garrison caused 50.000 losses to the enemy and lost 8.000 men in the process. Many of the divisions are now severely understrength or unready. There is doubt that we can hold back another attack of this size. The Soviets have captured Dresden and Chemnitz and are now only 20 miles away from Leipzig. The garrison of the city continues to be reinforced with whatever forces we have available.

I was a bit too harsh when assigning blame on the urban combat for the results. I still think that the number of damaged elements is too high, but I do not think that these battles (Berlin) are unfairly stacked against the Axis.

Battles around Berlin:



West Berlin battles:



Berlin battle:



Center sector after moves:



Dresden Battle:



Total Losses from the Battle of Dresden (3 weeks long):

-Axis 129.502 men, 1.952 guns and 295 AFVs. 28 Fighters and 54 Bombers.
-Soviets: 29.898 men, 1.511 guns, 208 AFVs, 65 Fighters and 42 Bombers.

Loss Ratios 4.3:1 in men, 1.3:1 in guns and 1.4:1 in AFVs.

4th Panzer Army has been dealt a heavy blow this week. Multiple divisions have surrendered and the army staff has been captured as well. We are still holding on to Pilsen and the surrounding towns. The defending forces have been subordinated to the 12th Army under General Wenck. Soviet push in Austria continues slowly. Gratz has been reinforced by an additional division.

4th Panzer Army before:



Battles in the sector:



Sector after moves:



AGS sector after moves:



Overview North and South:

[xhoel]

Losses and OOB

Irrecoverable losses have hit their highest point so far in the campaign: 540.000 men lost, together with over 11.000 guns. The Soviets have also lose 87.000 men as KIA or MIA, mostly due to the failed attacks on Berlin.

The destruction of the OKL has lead to a complete destruction of the Luftwaffe. No more air forces are active so the losses that you see on the screen are final for the Axis. Over 7.200 aircraft lost and almost 4.000 pilots lost since January 1945.

OOBs are suffering heavily. Soviets have dropped to 5.1 million while German OOB has dropped to 1.3 million. We still have 50.000 Hungarian troops fighting for us. Notice 0 planes left for the Axis.

The Soviets have lost the bonus for Berlin but doesnt matter. Goal now is to hold Leipzig till the end and hold Berlin as long as possible.