Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[John 3rd]

Thanks Gents.  Tocaff I appreciate your comments regarding both AARs.  I bet it is interesting reading back-and-forth!  PB--Dan assured me that has has 4 24-plane Fighter Squadrons based there. 

I'm organizing a large bombing strike for Tori Shima to be launched on about Sept 1st.  We'll see if we get any decent results.

The Fleet is still sitting at Palau and I have decided to wait for CV Aso, a CVE, and 3 DD that are all due to arrive in Tokyo in 8 turns (Sept 5th).  They will be added to the Fleet and I will sally forth at that point. 

All three of my reinforcement/supply convoys have made it to Marcus and unloaded without interference.  This means a full Brigade, 25,000 supply, and 50,000 fuel have been off-loaded.  The Kaigun will refuel there on its way out coming up...



 

[John 3rd]

Here is the second Sweep out of Tori Shima. The results are a bit different...

[John 3rd]

To answer an earlier question about rebuild units and their experience, I looked at the 2 TK Div I pulled from Saigon several months ago.  Each was at about 25% strength and are now at 80-90%.  Experience has declined some.  One TK Div is at 60 and the other is at 57.  When pulled they were in the low-80s I think.

Does that help answer the question?

[John 3rd]

Dan and I reached Sept 1st today so I will be posting an economic report tomorrow morning.

[John 3rd]

The end of this phase of the war:

[Q-Ball]

I hope you're titling another post "Singapore Falls" pretty soon....and not in this AAR

What will they do now? For starters, probably bomb the snot out of Palembang

[John 3rd]

Already Happening!

Safehavens are truly becoming a precious Japanese commodity now...

You are DARNED RIGHT we need this title on the First Team AAR!  [:@][:D][:@]

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Already Happening!

Safehavens are truly becoming a precious Japanese commodity now...

You are DARNED RIGHT we need this title on the First Team AAR!  [:@][:D][:@]

When I went to the main page and saw the most recent post IN AAR was "Singapore Falls" by John3, I figured that was where the entry belonged. A little bit shocked to see it fall so quickly. Noticed a few TF's in the SCS, expect they are scurrying away with the last of the oil, resources, and troops you will be able to extract via that route. I have no idea what Dan is planning but you better do everything you can to keep the Strait of Makassar and the Celebes area open or you are screwed.

[John 3rd]

Thanks for the pleasant thoughts...

I CAN get depressed myself you know!  [:D]

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Thanks for the pleasant thoughts...

I CAN get depressed myself you know!  [:D]

Sorry, I did not mean to overemphasize the obvious. If it makes you feel any better John, you are one of the few JFB I would be scared to death to start a PBEM against. Your play style is aggessive but not reckless and smart but not predictable. Bad combinations for your average AFB trying to survive 1942. Your game with Dan has been a lot of fun to watch for all of us who are regular readers. To be honest I don't know how you JFB keep going into late 1944/1945. As an AFB, at least when you are having your hat handed to you in 1942, you can take comfort that there will be a point of at first parity and finally material superiority. Still I can see the thrill of knowing you still hae a few tricks up your sleeve and are just waiting to make Dan's life miserable when he least expects it.

[ny59giants]

I would be focusing on moving supplies to your key bases that you "think" may be his next objective(s). You still have a sizable army, but they will be nothing but large speed bumps unless they get enough supplies to hold out for some time. I would expect large numbers of AKs going from Singapore over to Saigon with plenty of LRCAP.

[FOW]

I'm playing John in the 'other' game - and yes he scares the hell out of me too [:D]
What's even more scary is John now knows how to manage the economy [X(]

However I must emphasise that Singapore will not be falling any time soon.....

[John 3rd]

SINGAPORE WILL DIE THIS TURN!!!  (Feb 13, 1942 that is...)
  

[ny59giants]

What's even more scary is John now knows how to manage the economy [X(]

I wouldn't go that far....[:D]

[John 3rd]

Michael speaks the truth!  I fell like I am beginning to "TRACK" in on the whole concept.  Tracker makes life SOOOOOO much easier! 

Still planning on getting my VP/Industrial update done tonight.

[John 3rd]

Anchors churn up from the mud of Palau Harbor...

[n01487477]

Hey John,
I've noted over the last few weeks you have alluded to this being the last great voyage of Kagun and even gone so far as to suggest (at least in my mind) that this is a suicidal run, an all or nothing stab in the dark.

While I understand the sentiments - I hope this mindset isn't a self-fulfilling prophecy... just talking from my experience with Nemo.

I know it is sometimes prudent to keep your cards close to your chest, but I'd like to hear what you might expect to achieve. I hope it is the huge victory the Japanese planned for IRL, but never could achieve.

Look forward to seeing how this plays out - and seeing how your econ is grinding along.

Damian

[ny59giants]

Damian,
I've been trying to talk John off the ledge and will try some more after 11pm when we both have free cell phone minutes. It's like the Allies in early '42 when the "fleet in being" helps keep the Japanese a little more honest.
Michael

[John 3rd]

September 1, 1944
Victory Points and Economic Summary

Victory Points:

Score
Japan    55,712  (Up 544 Points)
Allies    67,739  (Up 7,576 Points)
 
Strategic Losses  10,706 (Up 1,660)

For the sixth month in a row I GAIN victory points.  Considering everything that I lost this isn’t too bad.   

In a wild month I see the loss of Saigon, Johore Bharu, and Singapore.  There are no Japanese bases left in Burma, Indochina, and Malaya.  Some fragments hold in isolated areas but that is it.  

I continued to slow down the Strategic Loss points.  My air defense toughened up for most of the month but the advent of Tori Shima becoming a Fighter spells certain doom for the defense.  

The Kaigun spent the month at Soerabaja and Palau.  It is moving now and we shall see if we can get another solid punch in or lose the Fleet.  

Ships Sunk
Japan   1,012—9,909 VP (up 468)—I lost 61ships during August.  Nearly all of these losses come from either the final evacuations from Malaya and Indochina or from the ASW War.  These were my losses:  1 AR, 22 AK, 22 AP, 4 TK, 4 MSW, 6 PG, 1 APD, and I-177.   
 
The lack of Japanese warships lost is a real indicator of my Fleet sitting at Palau.

Major Japanese Vessels Sunk to Date---CV Junyo, Hiyo, Hiryu, and Katsuragi, BB Fuso, Yamashiro, Mutsu, Nagato, Musashi, and Yamato, BC Kirishima, Haruna, and Kongo, 6 CA , 14 CL, 107 DD, and 48 SS.
 
Allies    1,339---14,783 VP (up 100)---Dan also lost only 13 ships in August.  Exact Losses are:  5 AK, 2 DE, 1 DD, and 5 SS (S-34, Tilefish, Taurus, Copelin, and Tarpon).

Major Allied Vessels Sunk---CVs Enterprise, Lexington, Hornet, Wasp and Intrepid, CVL Langley, 6 CVE, BBs Colorado, West Virginia, Idaho, Tennessee, Arizona, Prince of Wales, Alabama, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Mississippi, BC Renown, 15 CA, 10 CL, 103 DD, and 71 SS.  

ASW Attacks for August:
ASW Task Force:  11 (up 4)
ASW Land-Based Air:  16 (up 11)  

These are attacks that scored damage on an Allied SS.  The fight is fast and furious right now.  I am averaging sinking an Allied SS every 4-5 days and severely damaging another every 3-4 days.  Seemingly this makes no difference but they are sinking!
 
Manchukuo Garrison---8,606---UP 4---(8,000 Needed)
Political Points---1,038
 
Units Transferred: 
Transferred 1st Guards Inf Div to 4th Fleet.
 
Industrial Report
Supply              1,087,525--Down 140,339
Fuel                1,358,945—Down 89,433
Manpower        738 (1,276,146)—Up 48,394
Heavy Industry 13,227 (281,981)—HI Down 776 and surplus UP 7,202
Resources         12,003 (1,458,131)—Lost  1,270 Resource Centers---Strategic Bombing
Oil                 1,843 (475,695)—Down 53 Oil Centers

Mixed economic bag as normal. 

I have pulled a good amount of supply out of Korea to get around the perimeter so it is down. 

A Massive amount of fuel was shipped out of the Home Islands.  I probably pulled 500,000 Fuel out and put most of it in Palau. 

Manpower is fine. 

Heavy Industry is beginning to take a beating but I will be shutting down most shipyard (Naval and Merchant) this month to save on HI and increase my stockpile.   

Dan’s Strategic Bombing is really handing it to the resources.  Don’t have a crisis here yet but trouble is on the horizon (figure 6 months or so). 

Oil is so-so.  Haven’t taken too much damage but Palembang is no longer usable.  I will try to suck it down from Telikbetong.
 

Shipyards
Naval               1,242 (174)
Merchant           981 (6)  
Repair              1,387

Carriers           
Aso                  (8 Days)
Ikoma               (81 Days)    

CV Kasagi, CVL Ibuki, CL Sakawa, and 9 DD were completed last month.  

5 DD will be produced within the next two weeks.

Weapons
Armament        785 (15,040)-Increase of 2 to the industry.
Vehicles        179 (11,190)

I have the stockpile growing.  Thanks to Damian’s suggestion I am bringing the two areas into balance with each other.
 
Aircraft
Engines             2,090 (up 35)
Assembly         1,704+(45-Rd)

My engines are busy shifting but due to the supply shortage it takes a lot of time.   Assembly is down (only 7) due to the Strategic Bombing.  It isn’t bad but a definite drop.
 
Engine Production
Mitsubishi         653(167)—Need 908—369 in Pool
Nakajima          1,357(194)—Need 1,245---1,808 in Pool
Kawasaki          000---Need 18---116 in Pool
Aichi              80---Need 90---131 in Pool

Bomber production has been slashed in half to slow down the drain on Mitsubishi engines.  Increased the Naka pool by 400 over the previous month.
 
Plane Production
Fighters            Planes/Month (in Pool)
A6M2              0 (138)
A6M3              0 (0)
A6M3a            0 (174)
Oscar               0 (0)
Oscar IIa          0 (48)
Tojo                 0 (67)
Tony                0 (4)
Jack                 140 (86)
A6M5c            31 (272)
A6M5              113 (507)
Oscar III          0 (48)
Ki-61 Tony      18 (17)
N1K1 George  84 (33)
Frank 1a             537 (2)              
Frank 1c          0-Rd (12/44)
A6M8              0-Rd (06/45)
J7W-Shinden            7-Rd (08/45)   

Considering the heavy combat things have stayed in fairly solid shape.  I continue upgrading Tojo/Tony/Oscar to Frank but losses have been heavy this month. 
 
Bombers
Betty                0 (183)
Betty 2             0 (183)
Frances            105 (179)
Sally                 0 (87)
Helen               0 (363)
Lily                  0 (33)
Nick-a             0 (25)
Nick-b             0 (0)
Val                   0 (357)
Kate                 0 (145)
Judy                 90 (387)
Jill                    0 (320)
Grace               127 (19)                   All CVs have shifted to Grace  
Randy              40 (7)                          
Peggy               178 (13)            
Betty 2e           38-Rd (10/44)

My Bombers look fantastic.  I will further scale back production.  Peggy and Frances can be cut by another 50%.  I will completely shutdown Judy production.

Recon/Float
Emily                28 (1)
Alf                  16 (21)
Pete                  0  (99)
Pete A              0  (7)
Rufe                 11 (113)
Glen                  0 (23)
Dinah               0 (0)
Irving-R             0 (50)
Irving-S            23 (14)
Jake                 12 (21)
Babs                0 (0)
Dinah-3             52 (2)
C6N Myrt             24 (125)

Stopped all recon production except Emily, Irving, and Dinah-3.

Transports
Tina                  16 (8)
Sally                 0 (0)
Topsy                28 (10)
Mavis-L             0 (0)
Tabby              0 (14)

Transports continue to be used everywhere on the map.  I never realized how valuable these planes were!
 

[JeffroK]

John,
Good luck for your planned attack, 9 CV+ sneaking around gives the impression of an Bull tip toeing though a china shop.

Re your continued "gain" in victory points. These would be for causing enemy casualties, as the Allies gained about 15 times what you gained this is the comparison you should be looking at.