Banzais Don't Make Victories - Anachro (A) vs John 3rd (J) BTS 5.7

[BBfanboy]

Even estimating ops losses I cannot see those two combat reports coming up to the 93 aircraft lost by the IJN. Huge FOW overestimate IMO. Still, even if the losses are only half that it is nice to dull KB's fangs, especially over your base. Well done! [&o]

[Anachro]

Good point, looking at recon from previous turns to most recent, he probably lost between 40-60 a/c. Still using A6M5s, but I expect he'll upgrade soon to the Jacks/Georges. Then we'll really learn if that was a balanced decision or not.

[Anachro]

Next turn: not much to note. A sub launches 4 torpedoes at a Japanese CVL, but as with my luck with subs in this game so far, all miss! Meanwhile, John seems to land more troops (though seems to mostly be supply or equipment at Manus)! This will be fun! John also bombards Tagula Island.

Night Naval bombardment of Tagula Island at 104,137

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 9 damaged
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed on ground
Catalina I: 2 damaged
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 11 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Miyako
CA Seiki
CA Haguro
CA Takao
DD Shimakaze
DD Yoizuki
DD Fuyuzuki
DD Shimozuki
DD Niizuki
DD Akizuki

Allied ground losses:
502 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 52 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 22 disabled
Guns lost 12 (3 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Vehicles lost 20 (6 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Airbase hits 32
Airbase supply hits 10
Runway hits 37

Sub attack near Arawe at 101,127

Japanese Ships
CVL Ryukaku
BC Chichibu
CLAA Kako
CS Sukai
CS Poroshiri
DD Haruzuki
DD Hanazuki
DD Mitchisuki
DD Hazuki
DD Ozuki
DD Natsuzuki

Allied Ships
SS Blackfish, hits 1

SS Blackfish launches 4 torpedoes at CVL Ryukaku

Pre-Invasion action off Manus (101,119) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

107 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
BB Mutsu
BB Nagato
DD Isonami
xAK Daisho Maru, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied ground losses:
55 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

BB Mutsu firing at Americal Infantry Division
BB Nagato firing at Americal Infantry Division
Port Moresby Coastal Gun Battalion firing at DD Isonami
DD Isonami firing at Port Moresby Coastal Gun Battalion
155mm M1 Howitzer battery firing at xAK Daisho Maru
40mm M1 Bofors battery firing at xAK Daisho Maru
3.7" Mk VI AA battery firing at xAK Daisho Maru
105mm M3 Howitzer battery firing at xAK Daisho Maru

Amphibious Assault at Manus (101,119)

TF 169 troops unloading over beach at Manus, 101,119

[Anachro]

I will say, a big boost to Japan in this game from my opinion, seems to be the immense additional nav search options Japan has in this game. In stock normal scenarios, Japan already has long-range nav search, but with the introduction of even longer-range HB's, he can see very deep and it's hard to find places where John might have gaps in his nav search umbrella. On top of that, Japan gets a number of these new CS ships (Poroshiri-class, I think) to pad out his Air TFs with more search planes. Notice two more of that CS class (I already sank two a week ago!) in that CV TF my sub ran into.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Also, my yearly made-from-scratch Thanksgiving blueberry pie. I think I posted one last year too.

A real beaut! [&o]

[witpqs]

Alas, the one you posted last year never arrived. [&:] Did you put enough stamps on it? [:D]

[Anachro]

I will post the last few turns (I think around 5 or so have happened since my last update. This has resulted in a one-sided carrier battle where my pilots and planes severely under perform and despite very strong escort my bombers get chewed up a bit. Nonetheless, we have definitely sunk one Japanese CV and might sink more in the ensuing turns. This all came about through a very risky maneuver on John's part that, so far, has come back to bite him. Accompanying this turn, John sent me a note that he is discontinuing his AAR.

A bit sad; I will be continuing this one, but I understand,given my emails to him that I might be slow at times due to RL busyness, that he will be doing a second PBEM and AAR. I can attest that the absolute maximum one can do is 2 PBEMs and trying to do multiple AARs really is not possible. I hope to still tell his story through my AAR. Perhaps he can do periodic updates on his strategic situation from his end.

August 20th, 1943

August 20th is an innocuous day which sees John operating forces in two areas. From previous turns, it's apparent John has a force of some sort up by Horn Island, in addition to his roving main KB force around Manus that seems to be covering a force that, at this moment, I assumed would be landing additional troops at Manus. John, much like the Japanese in real life, has Japanese TF's weaving around all over. While this is going on, I have my carriers and other ships refueling and slightly repairing at Townsville in preparation for a movement on Law that I hope will simultaneously spook John's ships around Manus.

[Anachro]

August 21st, 1943

The CV force seen a few days ago at Merauke is shown to be at Horn Island this turn (was unconfirmed last turn). Meanwhile, John continues to rove around covering his extraction from Manus. He also does a nice bombardment of Portland Roads and gets my HBs on the ground. Meanwhile, my transports are filling up with combat and support troops for the Lae invasion and are ready to sail this turn. My carriers were in port to recuperated for a turn and fuel up.

[Anachro]

August 22nd, 1943 - A sudden carrier chase

Next turn, in order to spook John's forces at Horn and at Manus I move my carriers and surface ships at Townsville, a good portion of the Allied fleet, northeast towards Milne Bay. That way, I could leave John in a dilemna as to whether or not I'd move towards Horn or go north towards Manus, putting him in a bind and hopefully making him withdraw to a safer distance. These ships would then pull back to cover my transports as they headed for Lae. John, perhaps not expecting me to move out so strongly this turn (I had given no indications of it at all), seemed to have ran his carriers at flank speed from Horn down south of Milne Bay and across, perhaps with the intention of linking up with his other carriers at Manus. As he stated in his emails, he took a big risk this turn and it worked out for him. He was 8 hexes away from my own carriers which I had set to a strike distance of 7.

[Anachro]

August 23rd, 1943 - The chase continues

Hoping to catch John's carriers (I suspected that a flank speed run the previous turn would make them a bit slower and fall within range this turn), I move my carriers due northeast and set fighters and dive bombers to use drop tanks with a range of 10 hexes. Knowing John has several bases in the area, I set my fighters primarily to escort duty, relying on ~180 fighters at Milne Bay to help provide LRCAP. Unfortunately, nothing seems in range this turn and all my carriers manage to do is send a half-hearted strike at a couple destroyers at Fischaven where they put two bombs into DD Hibiki. This is frustrating because there appears to be a SCTF 8 hexes away near Buin.

John's comments on the past 2 turns, including this one:

That last turn was a near thing. Did a high speed jump from Horn east and ended up only 8 hexes from your CVs. Thank goodness neither of us reacted. It would have been VERY bad!

I decide to send my carriers again to the northeast as I try to at least hit the SCTF near Buin (and part of me wonders if its just bad recon on John's carriers from the previous turn). However, cognizant that John has another carrier force with strong fighter escort in the north, I set an evenly divided CAP and escort for the following day.

[Anachro]

August 24th, 1943 - A Carrier Battle, kind of...

My hunch from last turn turns out to be a home run. That SCTF was indeed a carrier strike force! And rather than being the mini-KB with ~70 fighters or so shown in previous turns, it's CAP is actually very strong (~140 fighters) and the task force is composed of 4 fleet carriers and 1 light carrier (CV Hiryu, Soryu, Akagi, Amagi, and CVL Soryu). Unfortunately for our strike package, the Japanese fighter pilots are indeed aces able to swat aside our hellcats and really dig into our bombers. This has an ensuing effect on our bombers who perform very poorly in their strikes despite their numbers. Nonetheless, enough get through and get a few bomb hits in that turn out to be significant. CV Hiryu suffers an ammo storage explosion, CV Soryu suffers a fuel storage explosion, CV Akagi, Hiryu, and most likely CV Amagi are shown with heavy smoke. In a second strike, CV Soryu is hit 2 more times, and last seen heavily burning and smoking



While the strikes are a bit lackluster from our perspective. We are pleased with the implications for the ensuing turn. We can assume one carrier has sunk based on a/c destroyed on the ground, we can further assume an additional 1-2 carriers are heavily or decently damaged (most likely Hiryu or Soryu sank with the other one in trouble). This means that KB2 will either need to be split or will be slowed down in the next turn, with John's carriers in serious trouble from further attack. Moreover, recon shows little a/c strength left on the carriers in KB2. However, KB1 with significant a/c strength is to the north, 19 hexes from KB2 and 17 hexes away from Death Star. There is opportunity in the ensuing turns tempered by risks from John's still-dangerous CV TF's. Moreover, it's a crapshoot as to where John's KB2 will try to flee towards.

So this is really a turn in which I ask the panel of readers. What do you think I should do with Death Star? Feel free to ask additional questions. The Lae invasion force is at Milne Bay with a strong covering CVE force (~120 fighters) and SCTF's. It can probably continue on towards Lae with additional LRCAP from Port Moresby. My Death Star carriers still have the large majority of their fighter strength, it was really only their bombers that were cut into. That said, they still have decent strike power.

[witpqs]

IIRC, Allied carriers max striking range is 7 hexes against ships, IJN carriers max striking range is 8 hexes against ships. They can strike out to full aircraft ranges against land targets. Paraphrasing heavily, there is a rule where awesome squadron leaders and great pilots can pass die roll checks to strike farther, but it's unusual even for that august crowd.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
but it's unusual even for that august crowd.

OK. So it's unlikely to work now. But what about in September?

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

IIRC, Allied carriers max striking range is 7 hexes against ships, IJN carriers max striking range is 8 hexes against ships. They can strike out to full aircraft ranges against land targets. Paraphrasing heavily, there is a rule where awesome squadron leaders and great pilots can pass die roll checks to strike farther, but it's unusual even for that august crowd.

I did not know this, now I do. I was wondering why my carriers wouldn't strike at targets close enough with droptanks on.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Anachro

ORIGINAL: witpqs

IIRC, Allied carriers max striking range is 7 hexes against ships, IJN carriers max striking range is 8 hexes against ships. They can strike out to full aircraft ranges against land targets. Paraphrasing heavily, there is a rule where awesome squadron leaders and great pilots can pass die roll checks to strike farther, but it's unusual even for that august crowd.

I did not know this, now I do. I was wondering why my carriers wouldn't strike at targets close enough with droptanks on.

Forgive me if this is a mundane point, but you are aware that drop tanks on naval strike aircraft may interfere with loading of certain ordnance, right?

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Anachro

ORIGINAL: witpqs

IIRC, Allied carriers max striking range is 7 hexes against ships, IJN carriers max striking range is 8 hexes against ships. They can strike out to full aircraft ranges against land targets. Paraphrasing heavily, there is a rule where awesome squadron leaders and great pilots can pass die roll checks to strike farther, but it's unusual even for that august crowd.

I did not know this, now I do. I was wondering why my carriers wouldn't strike at targets close enough with droptanks on.

Forgive me if this is a mundane point, but you are aware that drop tanks on naval strike aircraft may interfere with loading of certain ordnance, right?

Haha...please Chickenboy...of course I knew that! Hahah, of course I thought this through.... [8D]

[BBfanboy]

If I were the IJ player, Ponape would be the only refuge nearby that I would feel is far enough from your LBA to have carriers lick their wounds. He would need to use KB1 to cover the cripples and bring in lots of fighters to Ponape. His Netties can operate from Truk.

The only other gambit he has is all those SCTFs that have been bombarding. If he has rearmed them at Truk and runs them flank speed he could soak up your sorties to save his crippled carriers. His CAs are fast enough to try and get into your DS at night.

[CaptBeefheart]

Do you have a replenishment TF with CVE replacement squadrons within range? It's like American Express: Don't leave home without it. Barring that, do you have any VMF or VMSB squadrons you could put on your decks to fill them out? That would help your situation a lot.

Also, why did he move the mini-KB you hit to the east? Was it because he didn't think the KB to the north was strong enough to take on the DS? That would suggest he'll continue east with the mini-KB. If you do head east, I would not move the Lae invasion fleet any closer for the time being.

Tough one to read. Another thing to keep in mind is you could detach a surface TF to patrol in one direction while the DS went another.

Good luck!

Cheers,
CB

[Anachro]

So, there are a couple of things to consider here from my perspective:

1. Strength and Potential Intervention of KB1: KB1 has been roving around for at least 10-12 days and has traveled a decent little distance; I am unsure as to its fuel situation. It could very well be that he needs to fuel up at Truk first and can not make a run down south, or, more likely, at least not a flank speed run. That said it's not a good idea to bet on this and so we have to assume that he has the fuel to move south. Moreover, the most recent estimate of KB1's strength is most likely not an accurate one, given the fighter/bomber estimates from previous days. Thus, in prudence, we should assume at least decent fighter coverage and strike power from KB1.



2. John's Psychological State and Portents for Situation of KB2 and Intentions: John sent me an email with the most recent turn that I think points to him being a bit depressed as to the results, thereby giving away that perhaps the damage to the carriers of KB2 was a bit worse than what might be expected from the turn replay. In the end, four fleet CVs did receive 3 semi-armor piercing bomb hits apiece: CV Akagi, Amagi, Soryu, and Hiryu. One has sunk, but the others might not be able to move very far and were last seen on fire with some heavy smoking; and I don't think any of these carriers are particularly well-armored. It could well be that at least 1-2 carriers from KB2 will not be able to move very far and might be in range of strikes even if I don't move aggressively east or north. That said, this is tempered by the risky gambits John might try out of desperation to save his carriers: 1) splitting off an SCTF from KB2 to try and hit my carriers in a night action; 2) flank speed south with SCTF's from Truk and KB1. Nonetheless, John's email to me coming immediately after this turn strikes me as someone not very happy at all with the results. What does that tell me about the situation? Furthermore, his mindset will affect his decision-making.

Just wanted to send this Posting I made earlier on my AAR. Glad I made the decision prior to the last 2-3 turns.

Hello All.

My match with Sean is rolling on and we're in late-August 43. I have decided to stop my AAR due to a new match I will be starting later this month. There is no way that I can have two campaigns and TWO AARs running at the same time. Do not have time in life for all that. Feel like it is better to stop this AAR right now before something happens that cheats you guys when reading. TRUST ME though you WANT the AAR in the next match! There will be tons of excitement and a huge following for each of our AARs! Anybody wanna take a guess??? Naaaaa...that isn't fair to ask.

It is gonna be EPIC!

3. My A/C and Fuel Situation: Finally, my own carriers are in decent shape, if not amazing. Most, of the A/C losses from the past turn were in my bombers. This means I have close to my full fighter complement, which is 445 fighters currently. In addition to this, I still have 284 dive bombers and torpedo bombers. This means I can pack a decent punch while having enough CAP to fend off some good attempts to hit my carriers by air. I could probably even risk a reduced CAP on the morrow, throwing more fighters into escort duty. I have a replenishment carrier at Milne Bay carrying additional TBs and Hellcats. Beyond that, my fuel situation is pretty decent for all of my carrier TFs and very good for two of them. I should not run out of fuel any time soon, but I won't try flank speed runs either.



Thoughts:
With the above in mind, it becomes a question of how far I move towards the danger of the risky moves John might try. I'm more inclined to not move too far. If I move 8 hexes east north-east, for instance, I should have good strike range against a potentially crippled KB2. if that's the case. while also remaining 19 hexes from KB1's current position and 16 hexes from Truk. This is one potential move, as there are others. I think the main thing is to try and avoid a surface action like Spruance immediately after Midway (and no, I don't think this is a Midway situation for Japan...yet) while retaining a good chance of a second day strike, cognizant of KB1's CAP and strike power, as well as the significant IJN surface forces nearby. I don't want to turn a good event into a disaster. I could split off some vessels from all three TFs to create an accompanying surface TF. I could bring up some of my surface ships from Milne Bay, etc.



So many things to ponder as I approach this turn...

[Anachro]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

If I were the IJ player, Ponape would be the only refuge nearby that I would feel is far enough from your LBA to have carriers lick their wounds. He would need to use KB1 to cover the cripples and bring in lots of fighters to Ponape. His Netties can operate from Truk.

The only other gambit he has is all those SCTFs that have been bombarding. If he has rearmed them at Truk and runs them flank speed he could soak up your sorties to save his crippled carriers. His CAs are fast enough to try and get into your DS at night.

Yes, this problem is not a very easy one for me to solve. He has a LOT of BBs at Truk from what I can tell based on previous turns (BB Mutsu, Yamato, Nagato, etc.). Again, I'm not sure on the fuel situation as he has been using all his ships a LOT and they are gas guzzlers. If I had to guess, I'd say some have been refueled but not all of them, so it's a question of what he can send and if he's willing to risk losing BBs to my strikes as well. Likewise, I'm not sure how far he can move his carriers based on my sitrep above without running into fuel problems there too. The psychological aspect is interesting me in all of this because if John feels super depressed about last turn, then he might not be willing to take the risks you point out.

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Do you have a replenishment TF with CVE replacement squadrons within range? It's like American Express: Don't leave home without it. Barring that, do you have any VMF or VMSB squadrons you could put on your decks to fill them out? That would help your situation a lot.

Also, why did he move the mini-KB you hit to the east? Was it because he didn't think the KB to the north was strong enough to take on the DS? That would suggest he'll continue east with the mini-KB. If you do head east, I would not move the Lae invasion fleet any closer for the time being.

Tough one to read. Another thing to keep in mind is you could detach a surface TF to patrol in one direction while the DS went another.

I'm not sure about sending a SCTF to rove around, but it probably makes sense to have one protecting my carriers. I have BBs/BCs in all my carrier TFs. A replacement CVE is at Milne Bay, but I lost 3 of them a few months back and have no more. I could aggressively send it east, along with some SCTFs and my fighter CVEs to backup my carriers in subsequent days. He moved northeast with his KB2 probably in an attempt to get out of sight and then continue on towards Truk. I do not think he was expecting me to send my carriers aggressively north past Rabaul towards him nonetheless. This might be why he didn't send KB1 down south. OR perhaps KB1 is low on fuel.