Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

December 28, 1942

Subs

Shark torpedoes and sinks a small TK near Singers despite the presence of escorts, dedicated ASW and aircraft on patrol. A Lily belatedly drops a bomb on the sub later in the day but misses.

4th Fleet

Jaluit forts go to 5. Things are getting pretty stout on the perimeter. The six or eight extra months to dig may turn out to be the biggest strategic result of the Torres Islands CV clash.

SE Fleet

Sawa Force's CAs and DDs bombard the American Marines on Tulagi without much effect. We forgot to set float planes as spotters but suspect the waning moon and heavy jungle played the biggest role. Sawa Force was about to return to Truk anyway, so it was worth a shot.

Burma

A night strike at Chittagong finds the airfield very overcrowded and damages or destroys a good number of Hurricanes and Blenheims. Still no sign of 4Es in Burma, which is a surprise. CF is probably limiting them to US theaters for historical reasons.

The two UK Divisions arrive at Warazup and will no doubt take it from light opposition soon.

Other

Two new and much appreciated DDs are commissioned in the Home Islands. They will escort Mushashi and a CVE to the front.

[Cribtop]

December 29, 1942

Subs

Convoy escorts chase off Shark near Singapore. Pogy duds on a DD near Torishima. Plunger duds on an xAK in a convoy is about to drop off a CD unit at Munda.

Southern Army

Nells damage 8 B-17s and 3 C-47s at Alice Springs.

Burma

In a watershed moment, the lead division of the main Allied army enters a clear hex north of Magwe. We will begin heavy bombing here to delay and cause damage in the clear. This action begins a race between the Allied armies and Operation Whirlwind. The trick is to get them irrevocably committed to central Burma but not let them take any point beyond a line Taung Gyi - Toungoo - Prome - Ramree Island. White knuckle time for the next three weeks.

[Cribtop]

December 30, 1942

Subs

Kingfish duds on an SC near Hengchun. Escorts of Sawa Force DC Salmon near Ponape as we withdraw to Truk.

Two Lilys report hits on Trusty near Singers, while a Sally attacks a sub near Balikpapan.

Southern Army

We spot a big convoy moving out of Perth to the West. Several CAs are reported (might be DDs), so we can't assume it's a supply/fuel convoy. Pickets and a Glen boat will move into tripwire position in case CF is coming for some mischief. Meanwhile, assuming this is a big supply/fuel convoy, we now have CF's route mapped and will swarm it with subs.

Burma

We hit both the overcrowded airfield at Chittagong and the Aussie 7th Division (in the clear near Magwe) very hard. Interesting that the enemy is choosing to advance without even contesting air superiority.

[Cribtop]

December 31, 1942

Subs

Allied ASW harasses I-31 near Pearl. ASW planes report a hit on a Gato class sub near Formosa.

SE Fleet

A CD unit completes unloading at Munda. Just trying to make future bombardments here more costly.

Cooktown makes airfield 6.

Burma

We get another effective and uncontested raid on the Aussie 7th today, but CF strikes back, taking Warazup with a 3:1 attack (forts got knocked down to 1), casualties 466(1) vs 1804(152). The RTA stuff there retreats to Myitkyina and will immediately withdraw to Bhamo.

We are surprised that the Indian Divisons that took Katha have not moved on Schwebo and Mandalay, but they are staying put. We are fortunate that CF has ceased recon of the central Burma bases - he can't see they are being rapidly evacuated.

[Cribtop]

January 1, 1943

Every day in this game sets a new personal record for me as far as how deep into a PBEM I've gone. However, reaching 1943 for the first time is truly an undiscovered country. We shall see how our Empire holds up this year.

For all the odd feelings it generates, the day itself is one of the quietest in the war to date. We almost don't generate a combat report at all.

Southern Army

Once again, CF sends surface forces after an IJN picket and the TFs fail to engage. We'll pull back a bit in accordance with a gentleman's agreement since this appears to be a bug. Oddly, it's probable that the enemy TF consisted of an Allied picket spotted here a while back.

Burma

Once again the Aussies take it on the chin. We are getting 400ish casualties and lots of disabled squads each day. Ouch. The lead division is waiting for the others to clear the jungle before advancing, which is 3-4 days of excellent delay for us.

[ny59giants]

Are you planning to use the beta patch?? It adds routing of TF along coastal hexes which helps Japanese transports.

The 'experts' are almost all picking my Giants this weekend. That usually spells trouble for them. Next, to "Jerry's World" which Eli owns!! [:D]

[Cribtop]

January 2, 1943

Subs

Convoy escorts DC Flying Fish near Shortlands as the CD unit convoy withdraws. Better yet, escorts of a big convoy bearing 18th Division to Singers for Whirlwind get a penetrating hit and two fuel hits on S-39. Sub sinking sounds later in the turn appear to confirm a kill.

Our subs confirm that the big enemy convoy sighted at Perth is still heading West and thus probably is not an invasion force.

SE Fleet

BA by Japanese forces to test the waters shows raw AS of 626 to 99. We've been disappointed that weather has prevented bombing runs the last few days, so tomorrow we order a max effort by five different air groups. Then we will try a DA to evaluate combat power. We have also ordered a Rufe group to fly CAP over Tulagi to test whether CF is air evac'ing the Marines. So far he has not made any detectable moves to rescue or reinforce his troops here.

Southern Army

An interesting revelation comes from a milk run by IJAAF bombers against the big enemy armored stack near Daly Waters - no flak bursts! CF must be out of supply here. Hmmm.

Burma

The rest of the enemy troops arrive in the same hex as the 7th Division and the Allied army is spotted moving toward the empty hex between Magwe and Mandalay. Here we go.

China

We are constantly bombing Chungking's airfield to hit supply. Same thing at Tsuyung. Finally, we are daily picking off a few planes from the large KMT air force trapped at Kweiyang.

Cribtop HQ is considering resuming the offensive against Kweiyang, or alternatively pushing a force between Kweiyang and the three "Burma Road" bases. Intention would be to cut the Chungking plain off from life-giving supplies once Burma falls to the Allies. We already have an armored car unit moving to block the main road at a key choke point, but could do more. It took some months for the army that captured Changsha to recover disablements, but we are ready now to use these forces.

Status of Operation Whirlwind

We have five divisions that will land at Singapore over the next three days. They will join three divisions already in place. This army constitutes the main force assigned to Whirlwind, and contains several very elite units with EXP in the 90s. In addition, a big base force is waiting at Rangoon to support air cover, and we will probably throw in one or two smaller IJAAF base forces to allow flexibility as we advance. 17th Army HQ will lead the effort.

Plenty of air assets are in place in Burma, with a further reserve at Bangkok. We have six elite Tojo groups and a group of Oscars for long range escort. Bombers include five Helen IIa groups and some Lily IIs that will soon convert to Helens. Their job is to hound the Allied advance into Burma. The IJNAF brings a 45 plane Zero Hikotai, a 36 plane Betty Hikotai and a 36 plane G3M3 Nell Hikotai. These assets blanket the Bay of Bengal with Nav Search and torpedo attack capabilities, but have been kept on restricted ranges to avoid showing themselves to date. Torpedo enabled bases include Port Blair, Rangoon and Prome. Additional Zeros and Nells could be brought into the fray if needed from Southern Army.

The fleet is nearing full readiness, with the last SYS damage projected to be cleared in 3 days. MKB (8 CV, 3 CVL, 2 BB, 4 CA and hordes of DDs) is ready and will be divided into three TFs as is standard. Indes Fleet (2 BB, 4 CA, and DDs) is already fresh and prepared. This force will probably be split into two separate SCTFs. The Fleet Oilers are available, as will be several 4 DD ASW TFs. If the battle lasts long enough, a powerful SCTF centered around Yamato and Mushashi will arrive as reinforcements.

The invasion force will consist of an initial force of two infantry divisions to eat the disruption of a contested landing at Cox's Bazaar and capture the lightly held base. Then a follow on force of 4 infantry divisions, 2 armored divisions and support troops will land. Landings will be covered initially by MKB fighters and quickly supplemented by a 42 plane Tojo group. The army will secure the beachhead and then march on the major enemy airfield at Dacca before turning inland. The TFs will contain up to 75K tons of supply to ensure we are in good shape (we could bring 100K if needed). Cribtop Intel expects to capture significant Allied supply dumps built up in Assam to support the enemy's Burma offensive, but we are not counting on it.

The final phase of the plan involves dropping 1st and 2nd Raiding regiments at two undefended dot bases to cut the rail line connecting Assam to the rest of India. This will occur on D-Day.

This is a BIG Op. Much could go wrong, but we are comforted by the fact we have CV superiority by virtue of the Torres Islands. Cribtop Intel is intrigued that we recently picked up simultaneous SigInt from Colombo, Trivandrum and Karachi. If CF has something in the works we may get an old fashioned ambush by MKB in before the landings. To watch this sector, we will deploy search planes, pickets and a horde of subs in the western Bay of Bengal.

Plan A is to seize everything all the way to Ledo. This will totally cut off Allied armies in Burma and leave CF in a pickle in both Burma and China. If successful, we will hope to crush a desperation effort by the Allied navies to break through.

Plan B is to divert down the coast road, seize Akyab, isolate the enemy army currently locked up with 15th Army forces in the Arakan, and threaten the flank and rear of the Allied advance on Rangoon, using naval control of the Bay of Bengal to provide a safe LoC. Plan B will only be enacted if the enemy has enough "stuff" left in India to threaten to stalemate or cut off 17th Army. It is, in effect, a failsafe we hope to avoid.

All this probably launches five days from today, maybe six. D-Day is estimated for about the 20th of January, give or take. Banzai! Banzai! Banzai!

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Are you planning to use the beta patch?? It adds routing of TF along coastal hexes which helps Japanese transports.

The 'experts' are almost all picking my Giants this weekend. That usually spells trouble for them. Next, to "Jerry's World" which Eli owns!! [:D]

Wasn't aware there was a new beta patch out, but I sure could use that functionality. I currently manually route the TFs, but is would be nice to save clicks.

As for football, after last weekend's disaster at the hands of OU, SC's loss to LSU and the Dallas clock management debacle against Baltimore, I am basically on football suicide watch. Fire Mack Brown!

[ny59giants]

As for football, after last weekend's disaster at the hands of OU, SC's loss to LSU and the Dallas clock management debacle against Baltimore, I am basically on football suicide watch. Fire Mack Brown!

Jerry needs to fire himself as GM and actually hire a professional. If he had his way, he would try to be head coach. [:D]

[Cribtop]

PS - I wanted to note for the record that I have finally caught the AAR up to the game. Joy!

PPS - Comments on Operation Whirlwind welcome.

PPPS - Michael, you have exactly diagnosed the Cowboys' problem. Coach/GM/Owner/Dictator for Life Jerry Jones.

[temagic]

Good luck Cribtop. I'm looking forward to seeing how this op will go. It is the biggest gamble you've undertaken (even bigger than Pearl Harbor) and if successfull, you stand to reap a MAJOR victory. However, man oh man, so much could go wrong with this op. I'm not trying to give you nerves here, I hope you've already set your mind on carrying out this op, but, as a cautious fella, I would never have carried out this op myself. Red Dragon was beautiful and was a strategic victory gained from a sound strategic plan. This op though has so many more what-if's that I'm worried your Army Staff hasn't had the time to have them all wargamed. However, with that said, I hope you'll acheieve total surprise and with that, total success. Banzai!

edit: no -i wouldn't, but I'm so glad you are...

[temagic]

Just thought I'd write one more post to thank you Cribtop.

See, I love this game, it's so awesome, but I can't play it. Used to play WitP back in the days, years ago, but I've never played AE, though I own a copy of it and has almost since release. See, I got schizophrenia and alzheimer's/dementia back in 2009 and have been struggling since then. Memory has improved much. Can remember the yesterday and read posts and follow this aar and stuff, which I couldn't possibly do some years ago. Back then I culdn't even remember the names of my family members or the last paragraph I read. Watching TV, I'd forget the previous scene. Today, its much improved thanks to this deceased Canadian doctor and his alternative remedies. But, AE is just too much for me to cope with. So, I'm reading AARs instead and enjoying them. And of all the AARs on this forum, yours the best. (not necessarily writing style, but preferred playstyle) Now that we've reached 1943, I have to say, you've played perfect up 'til this point. I want to thank you for that. Now, Whirlwind, man, ike I said earlier, Cuttlefish is gonna cry from this op. I just hope it'll be cries of desperation and worry, not cries of joy.

Good luck and thank you and do keep posting and keeping us up-to-date on our war.

Banzai!

[Cribtop]

Great posts, temagic. Let me respond to a few points.

First, I'm honored and humbled at what you have shared with us about your health. Here's hoping you continue to improve. I'm thrilled to be your surrogate gateway to AE.

Second, there's no doubt this is a gamble. We can't ignore the fact that the Allied juggernaut is gaining steam. This is the point in the game where it is easy for the Japanese player to try to do too much and get clobbered. IRL, Japan did the same. I've tried to anticipate and mitigate the risks. The IJN is still far stronger than the Royal Navy, and, thanks to three fleet carriers sunk, we would overmatch the combined fleets of the RN and USN. Furthermore, we have a decided advantage in LBA in theater. Thus, I strongly believe we will have naval and air superiority. This is the basis of the entire plan. My carriers will certainly stay out of string bag range of the coast to be sure. A big fear is subs, but other than reasonable countermeasures, there is little to be done there except hope for some luck. My biggest concerns are: 1) does CF have a big force of restricted units that can stalemate 17th Army before we can close the door; and 2) will the terrain of Assam allow for us to move quickly enough to complete the encirclement before CF can effectively respond? The Plan B I mention above is basically the bailout in case either of those eventualities comes to pass.

Consider the upside, however. We can be ashore in about four days, three if we're lucky. After that, if there is no massive Indian Army lurking to stop us, we could cut off and perhaps destroy irreplaceable assets. The pools for the UK and, to a lesser extent, Australian forces are too small to sustain the destruction of the enemy's Burma invasion force, and the Indian Army would be crippled. This would foreclose another attack on Burma until '44, and, if we succeed in the "wildest dreams" sense, leave India itself vulnerable.

Third, I can't say I've played perfectly, but I would say that the results after all was said and done are about perfect as we begin 1943. Some of that was luck, some of it IMHO is attributed to conservative play by my opponent, but in the end I have what I wanted when the war began. I am aggressive, no doubt, but honestly if I had it to play again I might be even more aggressive. Still, I try very hard not to be rash, to account for contingencies, and to have a way out. We shall see where we go from here, but in the end I read the Burma invasion as an "all in" move by CF. For once he might be exposed to an unexpected counterattack, and my feel is that a sudden reversal of the initiative could throw him off his game.

Fourth, Alfred was supportive of this Op, and I've learned to listen to his advice.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Hmmm first time in 43 you say..... It is all about George. Uh hows yer research/arrival date ? To tell the truth, I am so found of this plane that I hope I never meet an attractive man with that name...ok just kidding but get dat plane. Zero was last year, this year its all about the George. Produce it in numbers and replace all land based Zeros with it except if you need LR escorts. the service number aint a problem if you have sufficent AV support and reasonable airbase sizes.

[ny59giants]

You should be looking for or know where the following are in India and/or Burma (all are divisions):
1 Burma
17 Indian
23 Indian
14 Indian
6 Aussie (comes in in Aden, but could be back home)
7 Aussie (same as 6th)
20 Indian
19 Indian
26 Indian
7 Indian
2 Brit
18 UK (starts at Cape Town as war begins)
25 Indian

Add in the 254 and 255 Armored Bde

Allied Intel is not the magic crystal ball that some believe it is, but you need to expect that CF 'may' have sniffed out this. Since I see many plausible but doubtful preps in my game as Allies, the give away would be HQs prepping. How good has your multiple prepping for multiple objectives throughout the war been in giving CF false signals??

Good luck and happy hunting!!

[princep01]

Based on past actions and responses in this game, I expect Whirlwind to blow away the Allies and be a SMASHING sucess.  A great wind.....a kamikaze wind...... shall sweep the Allies out of Assam and trap their armies in Burma.  Victory to the bold!  Forward!

[Cribtop]

Scattershot responses:

George is under heavy research, as is Frank. Can't remember current arrival dates but will check. Tony just came online, not planning to build a lot of this plane but will go with a few groups (probably just two).

Michael, that list is illuminating. I'll check against my records, but we have 2 Aussie Divs, the two British Divs, and all but about three of those Indian Divs sighted in Burma. Only Div confirmed still in Assam is 1st Burma at Imphal.

Princep - my gut tells me you are right. Time will tell, and worst case we should at least take Akyab and give CF the Willies on the way to establishing a solid front line.

[ny59giants]

Eli OWNS "Jerry's World."

[JocMeister]

About the George,

As I wrote in my AAR. What is the fuzz about? I have not faced the AC in the game yet. Neither in PBEM nor in a AI game. So I fired up Tracker last night to have a look at it. But I don´t see anything spectacular. Pretty low speed, low range for a IJ aircraft, armour and good guns. Are the figures misleading? My experience so far has been that the only thing that really matter is speed and 360 something speed is not very good. Even some of the P40s are faster. What am I missing? [:)]

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

Hmmm first time in 43 you say..... It is all about George. Uh hows yer research/arrival date ? To tell the truth, I am so found of this plane that I hope I never meet an attractive man with that name...ok just kidding but get dat plane. Zero was last year, this year its all about the George. Produce it in numbers and replace all land based Zeros with it except if you need LR escorts. the service number aint a problem if you have sufficent AV support and reasonable airbase sizes.

Hmmmmm....you girls always go for the wrong type. George is big and strong and nasty in a fight but bruises easy and take too long to recover. I would say that both the Frank and George are the easiest plane to kill on the ground. Because just like the P38, even after a winning fight the damaged aircraft are vulnerable to bombers. All service rating 3 aircraft need to be based on rail lines so that they can escape when the going gets bad.

I think the Japanese player needs to produce tojos and georges in equal numbers in 1943. Tojo is a bit outclassed but you got to have some service level 1 fighters to place at bases that are vulnerable to B17s.

My experience is that the hellcat has no problem taking on the george. The frank however is bad news for the hellcat. In AE, speed kills.