MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

Okay, there are going to be 5 attacks this impulse. The first 3 are on the North Front:

The Soviets have 10 factors of LNDs available that could probably rebase far enough away to prevent an overrun, but 7 of those are the LND/ATR units. I don't think any of these attacks would benefit greatly from the support. Maybe the attack on the CAV, but not enough. So no Ground Support here.

[Red Prince]

In the Ukraine, there are just 2 attacks, on the 4-3 INF and at Odessa. The odds I've put in for the Odessa attack include the German Ground Support, which makes it a 5:1 with a 50% chance at 7:1 Assault. The reason the Ground Support is being added is in case the Soviets decide to fly from Rostov to add 3 factors of their own. That changes it to a 39:9 attack, or 4:1 with a 33% shot at 5:1 odds. As the USSR, I don't think this is worth it. It does get a 70% chance to disorganize the 6 attacking units, but they aren't all that impressive, really. Especially when compared to the Ground Strike targets that will be available soon (3 German HQs in the clear).

I'll let you guys put your thoughts into it for an hour or so before running the attacks. I need to order some Chinese food for a late lunch, anyway. [:)]
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Edit: Of course, the Soviets could add 6 factors to make it a 3:1 with 25% chances of 4:1, but that would be a waste of air power, I think.
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2nd Edit: I forgot, there is a 4-factor Stuka under that 6-3 INF, so I'll use that instead of the Bf 110E.

[Centuur]

First: Steve did mention that it isn't possible to rail move a factory out of Leningrad when it was in enemy ZOC. That isn't RAW:

RAW:
Your rail move can only enter or leave a hex in an enemy ZOC if there
is a friendly land unit in that hex both before and after the rail move.
Its move must stop when it enters an enemy ZOC.

So this means that a factory can be railmoved out of Leningrad if the Finns have it ZOC from the north. If this isn't coded as such, it should be stated as a bug.

Second: Leningrad can be held by two units for this moment, provided Pskov is still USSR controlled. The moment this city is lost, there should be a unit moved back towards Leningrad (I prever the Leningrad MIL and the Kiev MIL to be in that city. If a loss occurs, you destroy the Leningrad MIL and rebuild it immediately). So I would wait and see what happens.That invasion of Denmark (why wasn't there another MIL or GAR in Denmark, covering the coastline... That's a mistake, I must say), gave the Germans have a small problem to counter. They have to stop the Wallies there, because a loss of Copenhagen means an invasion of the Wallies fleet in the Baltic. And if that happens. Some better units have to be put into Denmark to prevent this from happening. Perhaps they can come out of France or Spain...

Third: That 4-3 is indeed a sacrifice. However: if you look at the positions of the German airforce: it is lagging behind. That's very, very good for the USSR, since he is out of Stuka range. By putting that 4-3 there, the Germans need to take 2 land impulses to get to the Dnjepr river (and not one...). That means a total of 8 air moves only for the Germans. What is he going to do with those: he needs to rebase planes before he can use them. Rebase 4 Stuka's in the south Dnjepr? That means giving the puny USSR FTR in the wood hex the possibility of trying to kill a Stuka if they groundstrike. Moving FTR's to the front: that means less Stuka's there... Yes, this turn might take a long time, but this move is exactly the way to make sure the Germans will take a long, long time to reach the river and start attacking. It might even mean that he needs an air impulse to get his airforce in position. That means this Axis impulse will be land, next air and the impulse after that another land (that's the most logical way to proceed for the Axis).

So: Red Prince, you have done the right thing here.

Fourth: I don't like the position of the Russian HQ's I agree with Steve on this. Move Timoshenko eastwards (towards woods) and Yeremenko into the area Steve is suggesting, because I agree on him going to run from wood hex to wood hex.

And finally: keep an eye on the planes the Germans will rebase. If they don't rebase FTR's with the Stuka's, keep the crappy USSR FTR's on the frontlines, to prevent ground strikes on key units. They can kill Stuka's...

[composer99]

I'm not so sure about using up two good ground-striking planes so early in the turn on ground support.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Where it looks really scary to me is the south: faster Germans, better tank terrain, more Stukas. Losses there could result in the USSR needing to pull units away from the north, leaving them short there (or short in both sectors).

Also, one thing which I am probably not taking into account is that Red Prince is playing with Railway Movement bonus, which makes things a lot easier for the ARM/MECH in the forests as long as they're travelling along a rail line (indeed, 4-moving units can follow a rail line through a swamp without disorganizing).

Let's see where the Axis are at after this impulse, especially with regards to the disposition of the air forces.

That's been hard for me to get use to too. I am use to thinking that swamp can only be entered by Cav without disorganizing the unit.

[composer99]

There's Bulgarians in the port on the junction of the Baltic & North Seas (Aarhus, I think?) and in Copenhagen.

The Germans want to bottle the Allies up on the island and keep them there. If they can hold on to Aarhus (they need a second corps & an anti-tank gun) they can look into mounting an easier counter-attack, although they will need some blitz forces to do so, and I'm not certain they can spare those.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: composer99

I'm not so sure about using up two good ground-striking planes so early in the turn on ground support.

I agree. Odessa should have been bypassed and screened by Rumanian forces. However: they are in France at the moment. If looking it from that point of view, I can understand the choice made to not keep any USSR units so close to the Rumanian border alive. And if you want to kill Odessa now, you have to add the ground support, to keep the land units organised. No low odds attacks allowed this impulse...

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: composer99

I'm not so sure about using up two good ground-striking planes so early in the turn on ground support.

It's a tossup for me. The rail lines have to be cleared for supply, so it's either Odessa or Kiev that need to be taken.

Waiting another impulse is possible to do that. But it would be nice, at the start of the next impulse, to have all the German units available for occupying every hex along the Dnieper and concentrating on two attacks: Kiev and some point on the southernmost part of the line.

[Red Prince]

So, the Axis attacks this impulse:



And the results:

Attack on Odessa: Assault, Fractional Odds .581 (No), Roll = 3+1 = 4 = -/1S (attackers disorganized)
Attack on USSR [55, 56]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .337 (Yes), Roll = Automatic = */2B (Breakthrough)
Attack on USSR [47, 53]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .491 (Yes), Roll = Automatic = */2B (Breakthrough)
Attack on USSR [44, 53]: Blitz, Roll = 4 = */2B (no Breakthrough, due to terrain cost)
Attack on Riga: Assault, Roll = 10 = */2S

The damned Ground Support didn't help at Odessa. Even though the USSR got the result it wanted, I still think it was the right thing to do. In this case, it gave extra (though not needed) help to the attackers . . . and . . . they got to rebase to the front lines, gaining them about 4 hexes each while doing something (supposedly) productive. Didn't work out, but you takes your chances.

The 4-3 INF got smacked hard, but the Germans still aren't at the Dnieper, and with all of those factors available, Kiev might have been history. There is still room to maneuver for the USSR because they are not dealing with enemy ZOC.

Both of the Blitz attacks in the North actually stopped the Germans from gaining an extra hex, due to terrain costs. In the case of the CAV, it was the 2nd hex advance that would have disorganized the MECH, and in the case of the GARR it was the hex he was in that prevented a Breakthrough. Had I realized this, I could have had Rommel in Vitebsk on the result, but I didn't, so the Russians get a break.

Riga fell. Would have loved that roll for Odessa, but it is actually better used here, since there are more units of value involved. Later on I'll post the positions . . . when we get back to the Allied impulse. I may post an overview of the region after rebasing aircraft, but my Chinese just arrived. [:)]

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: composer99

There's Bulgarians in the port on the junction of the Baltic & North Seas (Aarhus, I think?) and in Copenhagen.

The Germans want to bottle the Allies up on the island and keep them there. If they can hold on to Aarhus (they need a second corps & an anti-tank gun) they can look into mounting an easier counter-attack, although they will need some blitz forces to do so, and I'm not certain they can spare those.

That's the nice thing of this invasion. The Germans must act. Perhaps the Italians can be of some assistance. However, since Bulgarians are in Denmark, they cannot attack in conjunction with the Italians, since they don't coöperate with each other. Of course: he can use Italian units for defense, but that means giving the Wallies the opportunity to reinforce the island. I think that is something which he mustn't allow for... So: Red Prince, apart from all those nice attacks in the USSR: what have you done about this nasty surprise?

[Red Prince]

Here's the overview (before rebasing) to give you an idea of the options. More detailed views later tonight or tomorrow.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: composer99

There's Bulgarians in the port on the junction of the Baltic & North Seas (Aarhus, I think?) and in Copenhagen.

The Germans want to bottle the Allies up on the island and keep them there. If they can hold on to Aarhus (they need a second corps & an anti-tank gun) they can look into mounting an easier counter-attack, although they will need some blitz forces to do so, and I'm not certain they can spare those.

That's the nice thing of this invasion. The Germans must act. Perhaps the Italians can be of some assistance. However, since Bulgarians are in Denmark, they cannot attack in conjunction with the Italians, since they don't coöperate with each other. Of course: he can use Italian units for defense, but that means giving the Wallies the opportunity to reinforce the island. I think that is something which he mustn't allow for... So: Red Prince, apart from all those nice attacks in the USSR: what have you done about this nasty surprise?

So far, just this. I'm going to rebase the Italian Stuka to try for a Ground Strike on this hex, but I'm a little limited this turn to trying to trap them.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Aaron,

Your attacks by the Germans look reasonable to me. Can the Italian air force provide the cover in Denmark? An Air impulse for the Germans is out of the question during the summer. Try railing land units to the Denmark theater to shore up the defense. If that risks some partisans, so be it. After all, partisans don't show up until the end of turn.

Despite the risk of losing Copenhagen, the advance into the USSR is more important. Denmark can be retaken later. You should note that the British have trouble tracing supply from Copenhagen if they do not control the Baltic.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Aaron,

Your attacks by the Germans look reasonable to me. Can the Italian air force provide the cover in Denmark? An Air impulse for the Germans is out of the question during the summer. Try railing land units to the Denmark theater to shore up the defense. If that risks some partisans, so be it. After all, partisans don't show up until the end of turn.

Despite the risk of losing Copenhagen, the advance into the USSR is more important. Denmark can be retaken later. You should note that the British have trouble tracing supply from Copenhagen if they do not control the Baltic.

Thanks. See the above regarding the Italian airforce. Yes, they are on the way (to save the day). I also just moved 2 German units on Partisan duty in France and Spain into cities so that they can rail to this troublesome spot.

[Centuur]

German advance in Estonia is faster than I expected. This means that the raillines to Leningrad might be cut next impulse. This also means that the Leningrad factory needs to be railmoved out this USSR impulse. Also: the Leningrad MIL has to move back into the city it came from. Nice to see all those used Stuka's in the south. There aren't a lot of ground strike capability units left on the front. I count 2 stuka's and one FTR's capable of doing so with a 4 or more TAC factor. That's not bad at all. However, this is before reorganisation and rebases, so we have to sit out this impulse, before making any decisions on Soviet moves next impulse...

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Centuur

ORIGINAL: composer99

There's Bulgarians in the port on the junction of the Baltic & North Seas (Aarhus, I think?) and in Copenhagen.

The Germans want to bottle the Allies up on the island and keep them there. If they can hold on to Aarhus (they need a second corps & an anti-tank gun) they can look into mounting an easier counter-attack, although they will need some blitz forces to do so, and I'm not certain they can spare those.

That's the nice thing of this invasion. The Germans must act. Perhaps the Italians can be of some assistance. However, since Bulgarians are in Denmark, they cannot attack in conjunction with the Italians, since they don't coöperate with each other. Of course: he can use Italian units for defense, but that means giving the Wallies the opportunity to reinforce the island. I think that is something which he mustn't allow for... So: Red Prince, apart from all those nice attacks in the USSR: what have you done about this nasty surprise?

So far, just this. I'm going to rebase the Italian Stuka to try for a Ground Strike on this hex, but I'm a little limited this turn to trying to trap them.

I thought the situation here was much worst. Block the straits hexside and wait for reinforcements (next turn). Any air units here should only be used for defense.

One hex of attackers is not a threat - if you do not permit them an easy invasion somewhere nearby. If push comes to shove, rail a unit into Copenhagen. Depending on optional rules, the British can't attack into Copenhagen by tracing supply back to England (straits hex). Instead they have to use Emergency HQ supply. The whole country of Denmark is a pain to conduct land combat in, even though it is all clear hexes.

[composer99]

Axis Rebases/Reorgs:

Germany needs to bring ground-strike forces forward to hit the Dneipr. However, they also require, rather badly, some air defence there as there are 2 HQs in the clear ripe for groundstriking. I'd say the latter takes priority.

They may also want to re-org a few ground units and some Stukas, but this is suboptimal this early in the turn.

In keeping with my earlier suggesting of priorities, the northern front is not as crucial so rebases can probably wait.


Denmark:
IMO the Allies want to press across the island onto mainland Denmark and reinforce both hexes (and bring in FTR, LND, NAV). They want to knock out the Bulgarians on the northern island and secure Frederikshavn (allowing them to base raiders there to sail to the Baltic). They want the Germans to have to bring in FTR, blitz units, and even an HQ.

They do not want to go into Germany proper - unless they can break out and overrun enough cities to outweigh the German production bump.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Axis Rebases/Reorgs:

Germany needs to bring ground-strike forces forward to hit the Dneipr. However, they also require, rather badly, some air defence there as there are 2 HQs in the clear ripe for groundstriking. I'd say the latter takes priority.

They may also want to re-org a few ground units and some Stukas, but this is suboptimal this early in the turn.

In keeping with my earlier suggesting of priorities, the northern front is not as crucial so rebases can probably wait.


Denmark:
IMO the Allies want to press across the island onto mainland Denmark and reinforce both hexes (and bring in FTR, LND, NAV). They want to knock out the Bulgarians on the northern island and secure Frederikshavn (allowing them to base raiders there to sail to the Baltic). They want the Germans to have to bring in FTR, blitz units, and even an HQ.

They do not want to go into Germany proper - unless they can break out and overrun enough cities to outweigh the German production bump.

I agree that FTRs are the priority for Germany to get to the front.

As for Denmark, the CW can see that Germany can't attack with any success once Alexander lands. That will put 9 factors in the hex, and they can be tripled using Ground Support and Shore Bombardment, if necessary. If I move across the straits hexside, I lose the advantage of the attackers from that hex being halved. As it stands, only 1 hex can attack at full strength.

Since the Commonwealth needs to start advancing in East Africa and putting the defenses in place in India, there isn't going to be much chance to land other units to fully stack 2 hexes. The USA might be able to get more units here, but I'm not certain of that. Without a port to move into, it could risk exposing some TRS to enemy attack.

[Red Prince]

Here's what is scheduled to show up next turn. The German armor is/was intended for the Soviet front, but if the CW/USA makes any headway in Denmark, they could be used there for an impulse or two. I'd rather not do that, though. But, hey! With any luck, Germany will be so deep into Russia that they would have to take all of the J/A '41 turn to reach the front, in which case, they might as well fight the Wallies and then rail to the front near the end of next turn . . . but that is jumping ahead.

[composer99]

Looking at the USSR, they need to bring the Leningrad MIL back to Leningrad; next Axis impulse the Germans will be able to screen the city straightaway (unless the weather turns rainy).