GW Counterfactual Take 3.

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #9. Asian Theater. China.

(1) Yamashita HQ-I, Mar corps, div debark from South China Sea to Canton.
(2) Japan now has 3 HQs in China and is 100% focused on completing the conquest of China now that Sian at its factory is in sight.
(3) After that, only Lanchow is left which Japan plans to make an all out effort for both as the fighting season in the north temperate is approaching.

End of Impulse.

09-AX-Asia-China-EOI.png (1.69 MiB) Viewed 498 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #9. End of Turn.

Turn continues.

11-AL-Actions-Weather-EOT-CL.png (37.3 KiB) Viewed 483 times

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #11. Weather & Actions.

11-AL-Actions-Weather.png (39.09 KiB) Viewed 486 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #11. MTO.

Italy Surrender Conditions.
Italy is conquered when any 3 of the following 4 are true during this [Conquest] step:
• The Allies control Rome.
• The Allies control Tripoli.
• The Allies control any printed factory hex in Italy (apart from Rome).
• The Allied garrison value (see 13.1) in Italy is greater than the Italian garrison value there (remember, Sicily is part of Italy).

(1) The allies control Tripoli and a printed factory hex (Taranto).
(2) The allies do NOT, and will likely for some time, control Rome.
(3) Their garrison ratio this turn (conquest phase) will definitely be less than Italy's because but that could vary well change as early as next turn.

RN (combine) Naval Moves x 2.
(4) The CW use 1st of 2 naval moves to bring in 2 badly need fighter wings, which rebase from the Italian Coast to Italy.
(5) The use their 2nd naval move to get Alexander and 2 divs to Italy, leaving 2 more divs picked up at sea (Italian Coast[0].

11-AL-MTO-RN-NM-1.png (170.4 KiB) Viewed 477 times

11-AL-MTO-RN-NM-2.png (182.7 KiB) Viewed 477 times

End of Impulse.
(6) UK mech division races from Taranto across the width of Italy in the rain to capture Salenro.
(7) This cuts southern Italy off from the rest of Italy and allows Alexander HQ-I, UK mar div to debark and air to rebase.
(7) Lots of allied rebases of fighters and bomber wings to Italy and Corsica.

11-AL-MTO-EOI.png (1.76 MiB) Viewed 477 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #11. The Eastern Front.

Siberian Fronts.

11-AL-Eastern-Siberian-EOI.png (1.48 MiB) Viewed 475 times

Southern USSR Fronts.
(1) Artillery ground strike (again) misses.
(2) Mountbatten railed out of the USSR to Iraq (W1-Baghdad) on his way for redeployment to Italy, Pacific or staying in the Middle East?

11-AL-Eastern-USSR-61-71-GSTK.png (332.74 KiB) Viewed 475 times

11-AL-Eastern-Southern-USSR-EOI.png (2.16 MiB) Viewed 475 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #11.

East Africa (End of Impulse).

11-AL-East-Africa-EOI.png (2.3 MiB) Viewed 474 times

West Africa (End of Impulse).

11-AL-West-Africa-EOI.png (1.35 MiB) Viewed 474 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #11. PTO.

Bay of Bengal.

11-AL-PTO-Bay-of-Bengal-NS-NC.png (186.23 KiB) Viewed 473 times

Bismarck Sea. New Guinea (End of Impulse).
(1) With storms raging across New Guinea, preventing USN from providing shore bombardment or from flying air support, the odds vs the IJA eng div would be +14A.
(2) Definitely not worth the risk so the allies decide to wait to take out this div they can get automatic odds.

11-AL-Bismack-Sea-New-Guinea-EOI.png (1.44 MiB) Viewed 473 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #11. Asian Theater.

China (End of Impulse).

11-AL-Asian-China-EOI.png (1.52 MiB) Viewed 472 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Allied #11. End of Turn.

Turn continues.

14-AX-Weather-Actions-CL.png (54.17 KiB) Viewed 463 times

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #14. Actions.

To be continued ...

14-AX-Weather-Actions.png (42.51 KiB) Viewed 467 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #14. Germany's & Italy's Bold Naval Plan

• Objective - Break supply to allied forces in Italy & Balkans, hope for turn end (80%) and due to isolated reorg prevent reorg of flipped numerous CW, USA & Free French forces in Italy and Balkans.
• This could be accomplished by sinking/aborting all empty allied sea lift (TRS & Amph) above 0-box and 1 allied CP in the Italian Coast.
• However; with storms off the Italian Coast no German U-boats or Italian Subs based in Western France can contribute; i.e., from there it takes 6-mover, 4+ range subs to make it into the 2-box; of which there are none.
• This leaves the Italian RM BB & 1 Sub Gp both based in Trieste.
• However; this force has no chance to sink or run off (i.e., abort) ALL allied sea lift in [3],[4] and CP in [0] and would be suicide to tr
• So contesting allied supply once it reaches the Italian Coast is ruled out.
• This leaves breaking allied supply in Cape St. Vincent & East Med which is definitely doable with favorable search splits.
• However; based on my understanding of the supply & oil rules with isolated reorg in play, is that this would only break US supply which I’ll explain in more detail later.
• I’m definitely fuzzy on this so please any of you WIF rule experts out there correct me where my following logic is off (i.e., wrong).
• There’s plenty of saved CW oil in Egypt to reorg all Western Allied oil burning units in Italy via land route to East or West Med port -> East or West Med -> Italian Coast -> Italian port.
• However; they can only be reorg if they are NOT isolated; otherwise, they stay flipped even if oil can reach them.
• CW units in Italian & Balkans can trace a very long supply line through the Italian Coast, East (or West) Med then overland through the Middle East to India.
• So, to isolated CW units requires allied supply lines through both East & West Med cut.
• Similar for Free French unit which trace to Morocco, both East & West supply lines must be cut.
• However; US units are isolated if East Med and Cape St. Vincent supply lines are cut.
• Well, maybe not if the US can also draw supply from Free French Morocco?
• So, the main objective is to break allied supply in the East Med, West Med & CSV.
• Secondary objective is to the break artic convoy chain in the Norwegian sea using a U-boat flotilla in Kiel that can’t reach CSV or Bay of Biscay.
• BB Bismarck and Tirpitz (Brest) will sortie to CSV, but if intercepted (30%), will stay in the Bay of Biscay supported by German U-boats & Italian Subs to inflict convoy losses.
• Let’s see what happens …

14-AX-MTO-Plan-to-Break-Supply-to-Italy.png (284.54 KiB) Viewed 434 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #14. Battle of the Atlantic (BOA).

Combat Logs.

14-AX-BOA-CL.png (97.72 KiB) Viewed 428 times

Bay of Biscay. KM Intercept.
Successful. KM stops, BOB[4]

14-AX-BOA-BOB-INT-1.png (158.19 KiB) Viewed 432 times

Cape St Vincent.
Searches Miss.

14-AX-BOA-CSV-NC-1.png (215.92 KiB) Viewed 432 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #14. Battle of the Atlantic (BOA).

Bay of Biscay.

14-AX-BOA-BOB-NC-1.png (204.4 KiB) Viewed 431 times

14-AX-BOA-BOB-NC-1b.png (165.62 KiB) Viewed 431 times

14-AX-BOA-BOB-NC-1c.png (231.34 KiB) Viewed 431 times

14-AX-BOA-BOB-NC-1d.png (168.15 KiB) Viewed 431 times

Searches, round 2 both miss.

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #14. Battle of the Atlantic (BOA).

Norwegian Sea.
Search Misses.

14-AX-BOA-Norwegian-Sea-NC-1.png (180.73 KiB) Viewed 430 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #14. MTO.

Combat Logs.

14-AX-MTO-CL.png (124.89 KiB) Viewed 427 times

Italian Coast Intercept.
Failed.

14-AX-MED-IT-Coast-INT-1.png (189.24 KiB) Viewed 427 times

West Med.
Avoid.

14-AX-MTO-West-Med-NC-1.png (183.43 KiB) Viewed 426 times

14-AX-MTO-West-Med-NC-1b.png (248.02 KiB) Viewed 426 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #14. MTO.

East Med.

14-AX-MTO-East-Med-NC-1.png (200.88 KiB) Viewed 425 times

14-AX-MTO-East-Med-NC-1b.png (129.34 KiB) Viewed 425 times

14-AX-MTO-East-Med-NC-1c.png (203.43 KiB) Viewed 425 times

14-AX-MTO-East-Med-NC-1d.png (180.1 KiB) Viewed 425 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #14. MTO.

Italian Coast (Non-Phasing).

14-AX-IT-Coast-NC-1b.png (250.64 KiB) Viewed 424 times

14-AX-IT-Coast-NC-1c.png (258.62 KiB) Viewed 424 times

14-AX-IT-Coast-NC-1d.png (200.61 KiB) Viewed 424 times

14-AX-IT-Coast-NC-1e.png (209.28 KiB) Viewed 424 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #14. Asia. China.

(1) Imp Guard Mar. Railed Canton -> Chengchow.
(2) 1st SNLF div. Railed Canton - > Tungkwan.
(3) IJN mech div captures Yenan.
(4) 2 IJA inf armies move around western flank of CCP and threaten Lanchow.

14-AX-Asian-China-EOI.png (2.08 MiB) Viewed 415 times

[rkr1958]

Turn 22. Mar/Apr 1943. Axis #14.

99-EOT-Partisans.png (38.74 KiB) Viewed 410 times

Turn Ends.

Partisan Checks.
(1) The Western Allies barley escape a partisan appearing in Persia.
(2) A garrison check was triggered but failed to produce a partisan.
(3) The dice gods definitely enjoy toying with us mere mortals.
(4) 2 more CCP partisans were spawned.
(5) 1 placed adjacent to Canton, which will take the city if the allies move first.
(6) 1 placed on a Chinese RP, cutting Japanese production by 1 BP.

99-Partisans.png (53.44 KiB) Viewed 410 times

99-Asian-China-Partisans.png (2.1 MiB) Viewed 410 times

[Courtenay]

I can not see any circumstance in which a US unit would be isolated when a CW in the same hex would not be isolated. The US and CW are cooperating major powers, so CW primary supply sources are also primary sources for US units. If the CW unit can trace a supply line of infinite length to a primary supply source, the US unit can trace the identical line to the exact same source.

Note that it is possible for a CW unit to be in supply and a US unit in the same hex be out of supply if the CW unit uses an aligned minor country capital as a secondary (or tertiary) supply source somewhere on the supply path. However, this can not affect isolation, as that uses a supply path of infinite length, so the US could just trace right through any such capital.

[rkr1958]

I can not see any circumstance in which a US unit would be isolated when a CW in the same hex would not be isolated. The US and CW are cooperating major powers, so CW primary supply sources are also primary sources for US units. If the CW unit can trace a supply line of infinite length to a primary supply source, the US unit can trace the identical line to the exact same source.

Note that it is possible for a CW unit to be in supply and a US unit in the same hex be out of supply if the CW unit uses an aligned minor country capital as a secondary (or tertiary) supply source somewhere on the supply path. However, this can not affect isolation, as that uses a supply path of infinite length, so the US could just trace right through any such capital.

CW units can trace supply to India. But can US units? Or only only to the UK, besides the US? In such a case, the CW units could trace to India with only 1 route over sea (e.g., East or West Med); whereas US units tracing to the US or UK would require 2 routes over sea. It boils down to whether or not US units can trace supply to CW home countries other than the UK.

In cases like this I'm glad to let MWIF do the supply tracing because I could very easily see myself getting wrapped around the axel playing this over vassal or the board.

[Courtenay]

The US can trace supply to an Indian city just fine. More importantly, Australia also works -- A US fleet in Brisbane will always be in supply. Oil might be a problem, but if it is, then CW units there would have the same problem.

In my above post, I forgot one other time when a US unit could be out of supply when a CW would be in supply -- when the CW unit traced through an aligned minor's HQ. Again, this does not affect isolation.