Shattered Vow

[AcePylut]

When you assign your LBA to cap, to you specify which target you want to CAP, or do you just leave it up to commanders decision?

[Canoerebel]

I also set a target for my LRCAP.  That has risks, because if the TF gets destroyed or retires out of range, the computer may choose a new LRCAP for that squadron that you wouldn't have chosen yourself.

[Canoerebel]

7/13/44 and 7/14/44
 
A very frustrating day for the Japanese and therefore a very nice day for the Allies:
 
KB:  Moves north into the Straits of Makassar, lauching a number of raids against various shipping targets of little consequence, sinking a modest number of "low value transports" while losing a fair number of aircraft.  Also, the Allies have three subs waiting in the narrows - they score a hit on a DD and one on CVL Mizuho.
 
Combat Ships: Miller sends a stout CA/CL/DD TF to raid the area around Makassar.  It savages a small ASW TF but then encounters a well-led Allied CL/DD TF.  The combat results in the following serious damage (reports like "heavy fires" or the like):  IJN: 5 DD and 2 CL; Allies:  3 DD.  Later, Allied land- and carrier based air sorties against the surviving Japanese ships, setting two more CL afire and putting two TT into CA Kako.  Given Miller's serous shortage in combat ships, the sinking or heavy damage inflicted on at least six DD, four CL, and one CA is a significant Allied victory.
 
LBA:  I don't have the totals for this turn, yet, but last turn Miller lost 150+ aircraft to ops alone (in addition to 200 to a-2-a).  The ops losses mystify me, but I hope it's an indication that Japanese pilot quailty is seriously declining.
 
SEAC:  The interesting situation in Thailand/Vietnam is described in the map in the following post.

[Canoerebel]

The situation in SEAC on July 11, 1944

[JohnDillworth]

How many times have your carriers been hit by subs in the game? Even in closed waters this does not seem right. Carriers on patrol are much faster than subs. They should get an occasional hit but you are taking them at a phenomenal rate. Certainly a bit of bad luch as you are not hitting his nearly so often.

[Canoerebel]

Hmmm, let me see if I can remember what's transpired.

I don't think I've had any fleet carriers torpedoed outside of the DEI (although I've had scads of BBs torpedoed everywhere from Bay of Bengal to San Francisco).  I expected serious sub problems in the DEI and, until recently, have felt fairly fortunate in that regard.  But I've taken a few licks that have dampened my enthusiasm.

Back at the very beginning of the Great Carrier Battle at Morotai in November '43, a sub put a torpedo into CV Constitution.  This ended up playing havoc, because my carriers were just about to react (against orders) and split up into several groups.  Constitution ended up getting destroyed by carrier-based air.  So that was a particularly nasty sub encounter.

I've had many other fleet carriers torpedoed since then, but thus far none have gone under:  Hornet (one; light damage); Saratoga (two; moderate damage); Intrepid (two; moderate damage).  A few CVE and CVL have also been hit (and I recall a CVE taking a torpedo near Attu Island back in '43).

Allied subs have exacted an equal or greater toll on Japanese carriers in the DEI.  I believe three fleet carriers have been sunk and there have five or ten scores against CVE and CVL.

I've chalked this up to doing business in the confined waters of the DEI, so I really don't have any complaints about what's happened with respect to carriers.  If you want to hear me gripe about sub warfare, though, just ask me about their success against merchant shipping and ASW ships earlier in the game.  Sheesh!

[Cuttlefish]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

How many times have your carriers been hit by subs in the game? Even in closed waters this does not seem right. Carriers on patrol are much faster than subs. They should get an occasional hit but you are taking them at a phenomenal rate. Certainly a bit of bad luch as you are not hitting his nearly so often.

Q-Ball, operating carriers in the same waters, has had the same experience in our game. The narrow passages in the DEI make carrier operations there very hazardous.

This is how it works in the game. By this time in the war in real life, of course, Japanese sub drivers were notoriously gun-shy, and for good reason. But even though Miller's sub captains have seen over 100 of their brethren lost they will still attack fearlessly, without regard for their virtual hides. Good samurai!

US carriers usually steamed at around 23 - 27 knots, I think, depending on conditions. The fastest I-Boats made 23 knots surfaced and a mere 8 knots submerged. But if a sub is waiting in a narrow strait and and a carrier comes through, it doesn't matter if the carrier is doing 35 knots - the sub is still going to get a good firing solution.

[Smeulders]

Canoerebel, I'm not quite sure how well you've got Bangkok cut off. He can still pull supplies into the base South of Bangkok on the coast (only 1 jungle hex, if you see how easy you can get supplies from India to Burma) and from then on to Bankok.

How much resistance are you still expecting before the Vietnamese coast ? It seems like it will still take some time to built up significant bases with enough protection on the coast.

[Canoerebel]

7/15/44 and 7/16/44
 
Powerful carrier forces are maneuvering in close proximity, tempting fate and drawing some "collateral blood," but thus far the forces haven't quite engaged in battle.
 
Carriers:  Two turns ago, the carrier forces ended up just eleven hexes apart, with the KB close to Soerabaja and the Allied TFs south of Makassar.  Both were under stout LRCAP, no doubt, and it was probably good for both sides that neither launched long-range attacks.  This past turn the KB moved north into the Makassar Strait and Miller assigned his carrier aircraft to port strike in an effort to hit CV Intrepid, which was disbanded in port after taking two TT from a sub.  The Allied carriers had moved closer to Makassar, however, and the resulting air battles were pretty much a turkey shoot - the Japanese losing 355 in a-2-a and the Allies losing 100.  Intrepid did take two bombs, but they didn't do much damage.  Now, the Allied carriers will move back to a point just west of Makassar.  If the Japanese remain in place or move south there will be a great carrier battle.  If the Japanese move north then Allied transports may proceed to Sampit under cover of the Allied carriers.  I am willing to accept battle because the Japanese have suffered nearly 1,000 aircraft losses in the past week.
 
Combat Ships:  Allied combat ships finished off a Japanese CL and a sub sank an Allied CL.
 
Future Borneo Ops:  Since the Allies probably can't risk taking on both KB and LBA, the Japanese can use the KB to block any Allied advance.  So the Allies will be prepared to move in either direction - west through the Java Sea (troops prepped for Sampit and Ketapang are aboard transports while others are prepping for Singkawang) or north up the coast of Borneo (the troops that just took Makassar are prepping for Tarakan).  Wherever Miller posts the KB the Allies can go the other way.
 
Indochina:  5223 Provisional Tanks just entered Vietnam proper.  To the west, 500 Allied AV will attack at Udon Thani tomorrow.  To the southwest, a very large Allied army is bearing down on the islolated enemy garrison at Udon.  To the north, a Chinese army is making good progress on the road to the Vietnam border - ETA may be a week or ten days.

[JohnDillworth]

Good show. You might want to pursue aggressively here. It will take him at least 2 weeks to replace 1,000 pilots![;)][;)]

[Canoerebel]

7/17/44 and 7/18/44
 
The KB appears to be retiring from the DEI, so the Allies are advancing.  This could be a major strategic change if the Allies can take advantage of the opportunity:

KB:  Located between Puerta Princessa and Manila.  From there it should take at least three days for the carriers to return to the DEI, giving the Allies time to proceed with the operation to reinforce the troops at Sampit, land at lightly held Ketapang (Borneo's southwest coast) and occupy in strength the undefended island of Billiton.  An Allied patrol squadron has been posted to Samarinda from which she can cover waters nearly to Singapore. This will make it difficult for the KB to pull an ambush, and should ensure that the Allies will keep track of the KB if she moves straight south to protect the DEI.

The Operation:  The Allied moves will (1) land additional troops (1+ division) at Sampit, where they are currently stalemated; land 1+ division at lightly held Ketapang, and about a division at Billiton.  These bases are pretty far forward and need to be able to stand on their own for awhile as they will be surrounded by big enemy airfields.  Those fields plus the KB - assuming it returns, which it surely will - will prevent the Allies from getting back here short term (probably until the Allies have operational airfields at two of the bases targeted here).

Allied carriers:  With Constellation, Saratoga and Intrepid subtracted from the force for repairs, the Allies have added a CVL and three CVEs.  Despite the length of time the carriers have been at sea, mission sortie levels remain high and fighter pilot fatigue low, so I think the carriers can handle Japanese LBA as long as the KB isn't added to the equation.  This makes patroling and keeping track of the KB essential.

Thailand/Vietnam:  5223 Provisional Tanks arrived on the coast a hex north of what appears to be vacant Hue.  The Allied attack at Udon Thani dropped forts from 3 to 1, so this base will fall soon.  The Allied army approaching Udon (far to the east of Bangkok) is still a week away from this target.  The Chinese army advancing from the interior towards Hanoe will reach the border in a few days.  There's alot going on in SEAC, with stout armies on the move but vast areas lightly guarded by either side, so I don't know what the long term effect of this offensive will be.  The Allies are moving east in strength, but don't have any good supply sources.  Yet the Japanese strongpoint at Bangkok is isolated and largely irrelevant now.  So both sides have some problems, but the Allies seem to have more opportunities.

[Canoerebel]

7/19/44 and 7/20/44
 
Well, darn it, my "perfect" plan isn't going perfectly, which means that the tension is increasing as the the possibility of counterattack increases:
 
South Borneo/Billiton Invasion:  For reasons that I can't pinpoint, both my carrier TFs and my transports TFs only moved a few hexes over two days (refueling might have slowed them down, or perhaps waiting for laggards to catch up).  Instead of both being SW of Sampit in position to strike at Sampit, Ketapang, and Billiton Island beginning tomorrow, they are instead between Soerabaja and Banjermasin.  To add to the stress, the KB has disappeared from the screen.  I have PBY patrols reaching deep into the South China Sea, but it is possible that fast moving carriers and combat ships could elude detection...and if that's the case the carriers could arrive on the scene tomorrow.  *ACK*!  What am I to do?  Well, I'll carry on as it just feels right to do so:
 
Transports:  The Sampit transports will head to the beaches (they should arrive on the second day and therefore have the best chance of success); the Billiton Island fast transport TFs will likewise head for the beaches and should arrive on day two (carrying a base force and part of an RCT); the rest of the transports (carrying the Ketapang force and the rest of the Billiton force) plus the carrier will take station between Sampit and Ketapang.  This is an advanced and therefore precarious position.
 
LBA:  After hammering Balikpan, some of the Allied 4EB will shift focus to Soerabaja's airfield.
 
Balikpan:  The Allies have three divisons present; a fourth will reach the hex from Samarinda tomorrow; a fifth is on transports near Makassar waiting for the "all clear" before heading to Samarinda to unload.  Once the Allies have all five present, the attacks will commence.
 
Tarakan:  I *think* the Japanese base south of Tarakan is open.  The Allies will mount a fast transport invasion within the week if it remains vacant.  The Allies also have troops prepping for Tarakan (located at Makassar).  If the Japanese descend upon the Java Sea to contest the invasions of Billiton and Ketapang, then the Allies can quickly mount a move on Tarakan.
 
Indochina:  5223 Provisional Tanks found Hue unoccupied and will attack tomorrow.  I expect Udon Thani in northern Thailand to fall tomorrow.  The Allied army moving on Udon in eastern Thailand should arrive within the week.  The Chinese army moving on Hanoi arrived on the Chinese border yesterday and are probably about 7-10 days away from Hanoi.  I have no idea if Miller is aware of this move, nor do I know what force he has in northern Vietnam.  The Chinese have about 2200 AV.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Indochina:  5223 Provisional Tanks found Hue unoccupied and will attack tomorrow.  I expect Udon Thani in northern Thailand to fall tomorrow.  The Allied army moving on Udon in eastern Thailand should arrive within the week.  The Chinese army moving on Hanoi arrived on the Chinese border yesterday and are probably about 7-10 days away from Hanoi.  I have no idea if Miller is aware of this move, nor do I know what force he has in northern Vietnam.  The Chinese have about 2200 AV.

Hiya, Canoerebel.

Have his Vietnamese provisional divisions activated yet? I would suspect that your attacks in Hue and Hanoi would be sufficient to activate these forces. IIRC, he gets something like three half-strength Vietminh divisions. My rough accounting makes these the approximate equivalence of the RTA divisions that the IJ starts with. Certainly not an insurmountable roadblock, but something to consider.

[Canoerebel]

I "assumed" that the Vietnamese would activate when 50th Indian Paratroops took the base just inside the Indochina border from Udon about two weeks ago.  If not, then 5223 Tanks would have activated them when they crossed into Vietnam proper about a week ago.  Or, if it takes the Chinese to activate them, then they did so this past turn when three Chinese units arrived at the border. 
 
As you can see, I'm not sure which event actually triggers activation, but out of caution I assumed the earliest would.
 
I disregarded activation in my calcuations, however, because the Allies were coming no matter what.  My hope is that the size of the invasion, and the multitude of vectors (from the west, northwest, and north) would present big problems to the Japanese even with the reinforcements.
 
The Allied move into Vietnam has been a major part of my "pinch" strategy since 1942.  The idea was for the British and Allies to reach the South China Sea from the west near Hue and the Americans and Allies to reach it from the east near Puerta Princessa.  But I thought the latter would occur long before the former.  That is hasn't is a factor of the British moving more quickly than expected and the Americans moving more slowly, at first, and now redirecting efforts through the Java Sea rather than the Sulu Sea.

[Q-Ball]

IIRC, Vietnamese activation happens in 1942 or 1943; NOT 1944.

In WITP, activation gave the IJA 4 crappy militia divisions, but they were fully buildable to Square IJA Divisions; almost 2000 AV total. You don't want to trigger that.

[Canoerebel]

If Miller sent the KB sprinting south for the Java Sea, we are about to have a big carrier battle.

I've issued orders and sent the turn to Miller. The Allied carriers and invasion TFs will steam west into the Java Sea, taking station about midway. As noted above, the Sampit transports should make it to the beaches by the second day as should the Billiton fast transports.

[Canoerebel]

7/21/44 and 7/22/44
 
No appearance by the KB, so the reinforcement landings at Sampit go well.  I've only seen the combat text report, not the turn file, so I haven't seen the map yet and, consequently, don't know whether there are any signs of the KB.  That said, here's the developments over this two-day turn:
 
Sampit: Reinforcement landings commence on the second day and go very well.  The Allies have 900 AV ashore.  The Japanses have about 400 (when the Allies first landed here more than a month ago the Japanese had just 150 AV, so Miller's been busy).
 
Billiton:  The fast transports don't have sufficient time to arrive, unload at, and depart Billiton, so this part of the invasion can't take place until tomorrow at the earliest.  Even if the KB is nearing the vicinity, I may elect to chance this since it involves only fast and fairly expendable ships.
 
Ketapang:  I will proceed with this invasion if there is no sign of the KB.  If the KB is menacing the region, howeverr, I probably won't.
 
LBA:  Allied B-24 raids have succeeded in shutting down Balikpan.  B-24 and B-29 squadrons hit Soerbaja and did moderate damage, but not enough to close the field.  The combination of Soerabaja, Semereng, and Batavia (and other fields, no doubt, will be tough if they combine with the KB; but Japanese LBA did not sortie over this two-day turn despite the proximity of Allied carriers and transports.
 
Thailand:  The Allies take both Hue (Vietnamese port) and Udon (base in northeastern Thailand).  With Udon falling, the Allies have a 500 AV army that can move NE to Vinh or east toward Hue.

[Canoerebel]

Okay, the map has been reviewed (no sign of the KB) and orders issued.  My carriers have been in place for four days now and will remain in place for at least two more, so if Miller wants to give battle the next turn is going to be a doozy:
 
1)  Troops did land at Billiton (a base force) and found it vacant.  More troops will land there next turn - some via fast transport (161st RCT) and some via slow transport.  Should all the troops land in good shape I doubt Miller will be able to cobble together a counterinvasion sufficient to reclaim this critically situated base before the Allies are ready to flood the area in a few weeks.
2)  All transports loaded with Ketapang bound troops hit the beaches tomorrow or the following day.  This is a stout force heading straight for the narrows where KB and friends would take station should they be on the way.  What happens to this force in that event is anybody's guess.
3)  The Sampit transports have disgorged all troops and plenty of supplies.  They will weigh anchor and depart for Makassar and Kendari (and good to get them away from the hot zone so quickly).  The troops at Sampit, including 40th Infantry Division, will shock attack tomorrow.
4)  Carriers to take station just southwest of Sampit.
5)  Fast transport invasion to occur at the base (unoccupied, I think) south of Tarakan.
6)  4EB will continue to focus on Soerabaja and Balikpan.
7)  I put odds of the KB arriving at 80%.  If so I have no idea what's going to happen, but I am willing to accept battle because (1) putting troops ashore at Sampit, Ketapang, and Billiton strongly advances the position of the Allies into the central DEI; (2) the Japanese have lost a ton of aircraft recently so that there is a chance that the Allies could prevail; and (3) Allied carrier reinforcements will continue to arrive so that even a carrier defeat would't result in a decided disadvantage for an extended period of time.
8)  The advanced echelon of Chinese have crossed into Vietnam.  These units should move adjacent to Hanoi within the week.
9)  The Allied army that just took Udon Thani will stream east toward the Vietnam frontier and then on toward Vinh and Hue.
10)  The Allied army pressing Udon should be in place to attack in less than a week.
11)  A decisive carrier defeat would be a bad thing, of course, and would slow the Allied advance for awhile, but at the moment the Allies are experiencing the closest thing to a steamroller that they've enjoyed in the game.  Should the Allies win a big carrier battle...well, that would probably be the straw that broke the camel's back.

[Q-Ball]

You will be soon asking the same question I am asking in my game with Cuttlefish (who can go ahead and read this): If Palembang is closed, how long will it take for the Empire to dry-up in fuel?

Closing shipping around Singapore will mean the end of most fuel shipments. How can the Empire survive?

I don't know the answer; I know that in the first year or so it's possible to build a stockpile of OIL and HI points. Losing the DEI, the Empire can probably turn off some Heavy Industry to economize, and turn off Merchant Production (why bother?). It will take months to refine all the OIL stockpiled, so it would take awhile to feel the pinch. Another expedient would be to halt Naval Construction. Shipyards burn alot of HI. Anyway, I guess we'll find out how long....

[Canoerebel]

On a similar note, I agree with your comments that both the Philippines and the DEI are valuable strategic targets, but that the Philippines offer the better and more important vector to finish off Japan.

From 1942 forward, my objective was to move up the eastern DEI via Ambon, Sorong, and the Moluccas into Mindanao and the islands between there and Borneo.  I did not truly consider changing my plan from that to a route through southern Borneo until late Spring 1944 when it became clear that Miller had turned Mindanao into a true fortress bristling with big airfields holding several thousand aircraft. 

I still wish I could've gone the Mindanao route, but I'm pleased that the Allies were able to shift directions so quickly and (relatively, so far) successfully.