The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

Guess the Objective?

Tanna
Antamon
Erromango

No no no no no....[:-] If I wanted to put up three guesses, the second two wouldn't count. [:'(]

[Canoerebel]

8/26/42 and 8/27/42

Bay of Bengal: Kates sortie in number against shipping in and near Ramree (for some reason, two xAKL decided to move past Ramree; their captains don't get to repeat the mistake as they went down with their ships). On the day, Japan lost 28 Kates and 12 Zeroes. A carrier force of some sort is on the west side of Port Blair, so it appears that a raid is coming. Ramree airfield goes to level five tomorrow (barring an effective bombing raid). John mostly stood down the Tojos on the 27th - though Allied 4EB downed a couple.

Burma: I'll post a map later today, but right now it's just both sides jockeying for position. It's going to take awhile as most of the jockeying is occuring in jungle hexes. In short, the Allied are shifting their big divisions - 2nd UK, 41st US, and the two Aussies, further south.

Pacific: A train of troop transports departed Pearl over the past week. A few more will follow in a few days, once more AP and xAP reach the base. Lots of "fake" transport TFs have left a variety of bases - Pearl, Seattle, etc . - in a variety of directions to create some noise and confuse the issue.

[BBfanboy]

Assuming those xAKLs were ordered to go to Ramree, the only reason I can think of for them to go south of there is the "TF Fleeing from XYZ threat" message. If that was the case, and the air threat was from the west near Port Blair, it suggests there was a surface threat north of them?

[artuitus_slith]

Maleolap (spelling?) something to completely throw John of his game?

[DTurtle]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Playing Coy with the Objective: One reason I haven't gone into detail about the objective is the immense amount of thought, planning, and typing I did as I was trying to pull together the Aleutians operation. All that work for nothing! The same thing might happen again, because like any major amphibious operation in '42, I'm not going to risk my carriers unless I know the KB is far away. And whether I'll know that remains to be seen.

Since John 3rd seems to love running towards whatever attack with everything you got, shouldn't it be pretty easy to entice him away?
The land offensive in Burma probably won't lead to him committing KB, but landing in the Andamans, or the islands off Sumatra would probably do the trick. There probably are little defended outposts that you could invade there, and he will have to react to those moves.

[Canoerebel]

8/28/42

Bay of Bengal: Enemy carriers still posted right by the west shore of Andaman Island - no movement, meaning John's either gathering his forces there or he's posted his ships there as some kind of warning or deterrent. Big Tojo sweeps over Ramree - 10 Tojos downed but the Allies lose perhaps 25 fighters of all kinds. Ramree Island airfield goes to level 5.

Pacific: That long line of ships departing Pearl (and another line departing Los Angeles) is growing longer.

I've Lost that Knowing Feeling: The situation in the Bay of Bengal is very complex. I'm not sure what John's thinking is. I've long thought that the presence of essentially the entire RN (enhanced by American ships) would either draw a massive response or perhaps even provoke John into a sizeable landing at Ceylon or on the mainland. Now I'm beginning to wonder if John isn't convinced that the Allies have martialled a titanic force to invade Port Blair or Moulmein. He seems to have deployed his forces defensively. Eventually he's going to conclude that I'm not moving forward there, so I've got to keep fighting as hard as I can to keep Ramree open and to advance troops down the coast road in an offensive posture. I don't want John to turn his thoughts elsewhere (except for the Aluetians and western Oz, which I do want him to consider in the coming weeks.) I'm guessing the Allies are 45 days away from the move I hope to pull off - that's still alot of time for John to figure out what I'm up to.

[paullus99]

John doesn't mess around, if he's not 100% ready to commit, he'll wait until he thinks he has sufficient force to launch an overwhelming attack.....I don't think this is cause for concern, actually, it could be working well in your favor.

There is still a long war to fight, so don't get too worried - you're not committing anything that you can't afford to lose.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, the Bay of Bengal is one of those nice "either/or" sitautions. I think John will rise to the bait eventually, but on the off chance he doesn't the Allies will continue to consolidate a very good position there.

The main question continues to be whether the Allies will be in position to strike elsewhere if/when John does attack in the Bay. I think there's a decent chance John won't commit the KB in the Bay. If not, my best shot is to draw his attention to the Aleutians just before I move on the place I wanna move.

[Schlemiel]

You're going to pull a moon shot on Sumatra, aren't you Get him distracted between western oz and Burma and then hit him in the place he'll assume is invincible because you're already drawing his attention to the neighborhood

[Canoerebel]

8/29/42 and 8/30/42

Bay of Bengal: The carrier TF that was posted near Andaman Island has disappeared from my patrol screen. Small actions over Ramree again, with John sinking an xAK and losing 12 aircraft (six Kates, six Zeroes).

Burma: Forces continue to jockey. An IJ tank division attacked three UK brigades and the East African brigade in an open hex. The tanks got roughed up. The Allies will counterattack tomorrow, but more IJ troops may arrive. Cox airfield goes to level six. Akyab will follow in a day or two.

NoPac: IJN subs sank two xAK near Seward. Lots of Allied shipping in this region - mostly carrying supply or small AA units to Anchorage and Kodiak to keep up appearances. 11th SeaBees is heading to a dot hex west of Kodiak. This is meant to ramp up the appearance of aggression. I may also convert a Mohawk squadron to precious P-38Fs to provide LRCAP, solely to "impress" John.

Pacific: The bulk of the combat AV troops are now well out of Pearl and LA (more support troops need to make the trip, but if push came to shove the group already gone is sufficient for invasion purposes). The two upgrading CVs at Pearl require 15 more days. By the time they're ready to go, the amphibious TFs should be at least halfway to where I want them to be when the carriers catch up. (Pardon my being coy.)

Spidey Senses: John mentioned a couple of turns that his spidey senses were tingling. He's either feeling this in connection with Bay of Bengal or the Aleutians, in which case my efforts are bearing fruit, or somewhere else, in which case he's probably imaginging things. I am shifting around troops in Oz - bringing new "small units" to certain forward bases while extracting major units that I hope to use offensively in the next few months, but as best I can tell John hasn't caught a whiff of these particular minor moves. He's not reconning SW Oz at all.

[paullus99]

There goes "knee-jerk" John - sounds like he still expects you to "dance to his tune" though you've done no such thing for quite a while now. Maybe he's expecting a major push in Burma or perhaps Australia?

If he's worried about "up north" too, then his attention is everywhere & nowhere at the same time.

[Canoerebel]

At this point, the best thing I can hope for is that John's spidey senses are tingling over the Bay of Bengal and/or the Aleutians. That's been the plan since I stood down from the Aleutians operation several weeks ago. Unfortunately, its unlikely that John will continue to focus at these two points long enough to permit me to waltz where I wish to waltz unmolested. I'll try to keep him intrigued in both regions, but I have a sneaky suspicion that my operation is one of those things that gets pulled together just in time to get lots of SigInt of troops inbound to my targets and the airfields at targeted bases suddenly increasing in size. But I don't mean that in a disparing way - if I don't do anything else in 1942, the current massive operations in Burma and on the Bay of Bengal rim are critical to my longterm plans.

[Canoerebel]

8/31/42

Bay of Bengal: Tojo sweep over Ramree downs nine P-39s, but no IJ bombing attacks. Ramree field to 5.11.

Burma: Small Allied attack vs. tank division fails, but the Japanese take more casualties. More of the Brits to try tomorrow. Big enemy sweeps over Imphal down something like nine Hurricanes.

Pacific: Nice and quiet.

My Best Guess: I don't know what John is thinking. I don't think John knows what I am thinking. So we're kinda floundering. My best guess is that he thinks I'm trying to draw the KB to the Bay of Bengal (true!), so he's stubbornly refusing to take the bait because he thinks the Aleutians are the real target (if so, good guessing on his part). If I'm right, and Lord knows I might not be, then it should be easy to "feed his concerns" about NoPac, but it is incumbent that I move before winter weather sets in. That was what prompted me to finally stand down NoPac a few weeks ago. I've got time to get me assets in place and move, the sooner the better. Meanwhile, the Bay of Bengal should continue to bubble and boil, which suits me as long as I'm fighting on the high ground like Longstreet wanted to do.

[ny59giants]

Ramree Island - What about building up the port?? You will need it to unload troops now and lots of supplies later. With Allied engineers, it doesn't take long to get even a 0(0) port to 3(0).

[Canoerebel]

9/1/42

Ramree Island: Quiet day with a few P-39s downed by Tojos and airfield up to 5.20. SigInt in recent days that both 25th and 14th Army HQs are prepping for this post. (Question: Can John get double-the-effect by using HQ, or is this a one-time thing?). I don't need to build the port right now - I have the capability of bringing in enough supply for what I need and reinforcements in an emergency. Right now, building the airfield is job one. If I get it up to seven (or eight), I'll then resume fort building (currently at three). Someday I may want to use Ramree as a port of entry for troops and supplies, at which time I'll want the port built, but right now it's main purpose is to serve as a defensive bulwark and attractor. Plus, John has the hex across the waterway blocked with a division, so I couldn't move stuff out even if I wanted to.

Burma: The Brits maul 2nd IJA Tank Division pretty badly near Magwe (combat report excerpt pasted below). The Japanese lose 100+ vehicles, 30 artillery pieces, and a fair number of support and combat troops. This is the kind of attrition needed to keep the pressure up here. You'll recall that 48th IJA Div. was badly messed up a couple of weeks ago. 41st USA Div. finally reached the front-line jungle hex. It's going to move out in the open to join the Brits.

Ground combat at 57,46 (near Magwe)

Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 13947 troops, 264 guns, 146 vehicles, Assault Value = 495
Defending force 5300 troops, 122 guns, 516 vehicles, Assault Value = 155
Allied adjusted assault: 236
Japanese adjusted defense: 41
Allied assault odds: 5 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(+), disruption(-), fatigue(-)
Attacker: supply(-)

Japanese ground losses:
655 casualties reported
Squads: 30 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 30 destroyed, 29 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 32 (32 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 131 (106 destroyed, 25 disabled)
Units retreated 1

Allied ground losses:
125 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 18 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
14th British Brigade
22nd (East African) Brigade
5th British Brigade
23rd British Brigade

Defending units:
2nd Tank Division

[Canoerebel]

The situation in Burma. To this point, John has spread out his divisions in an effort to block the way. This is understandable and it might be effective, but he's also committed two (48th and 2nd Tank) to combat that resulted in big losses for both. As bigger Allied units (41st US, 6th and 7th Oz) begin to emerge from the jungles, the Allies hope to pierce the Japanese MLR and/or maul more enemy units.

[paullus99]

You're not needlessly exposing your troops to aerial bombing, are you? Do you think you can keep them covered or better yet, get to the next set of jungle hexes fast enough?

[Canoerebel]

They're definitely exposed to bombing (as are John's troops). Thus far, John hasn't tried any bombing missions. I probably can't effectively stop him if he does, but the whole point is to present a problem so complex that it makes John's job very difficult. If he diverts bombers to hit ground troops, Ramree, Akyab, and Imphal are unmolested for ships and base building. If he bombs Ramree or any other target, the ground troops are unmolested. There are concentrations of troops in many places. Ships in big numbers in forward points. Airfields with high numbers of fighters at forward points. I don't think John can handle this without an all-out commitment, and I think that is exactly what a player of his disposition is likely to do.

All of this has a three-fold purpose: (1) the Allies intend to ultimately win the campaign in Burma, whether John vigorously contests or not; (2) this is meant to be an effective attritional-campaign; and (3) draw the maximum amount of attention to Burma, even if it means taking hard shots for quite some time into the future.

I'm trying to get a second front established in a location that will require John to commit to another air war. If I can do that, he's going to be pressed pretty hard. So there's a hint - where on the map can the Allies move that would prompt a second air war?

[SqzMyLemon]

Ugh, that is a nightmare for Japan at this stage. If he doesn't start preparing positions south of the Central Plains he could be facing a rout. I know you don't want to lose the airframes, but defending your troops in the open from Japanese bombing attacks should be a win/win for you. As you mentioned, targets like Akyab and Ramree are left alone while any aircraft you lose are over your own lines so the pilots most likely live to fight another day.

[DTurtle]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm trying to get a second front established in a location that will require John to commit to another air war. If I can do that, he's going to be pressed pretty hard. So there's a hint - where on the map can the Allies move that would prompt a second air war?

Considering the long travel time from Pearl (20-30 days for invasion TF), that can only be somewhere deep in the South Pacific.

New Hebrides, or something in that area area. Gives you a clear line of large numbers of dot bases for an island hopping campaign that he has to oppose, requiring significant air effort to stop.