Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[jwolf]

Can you move freely through the Sunda Strait now? It looks like everything is OK (mines cleared for one thing) but I'm not sure. That would definitely add to your security about the Death Star so you could make a quick getaway in that direction, if need be. Also I think the airfields at some of Oosthaven, Merak, or Kalidjati should be big enough to replenish the DS once you get enough supply there.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, the Sunda Strait is open. Allied ships have been freely passing through for a week.

Semereng is a level 5 port that just received a bunch of AKE/AD, so it can replenish DS.

Fuel is a limiting issue right now. A bunch of AOs will reach DS tonight, and that should allow full replenishment, but I definitely couldn't send DS & A Herd off on an expeditionary, long-term galivant into the South China Sea or Sulu Sea at the moment.

Taking Soerabaja is key for the fleet. It's a relatively safe port, for a variety of reasons, so that fuel can come forward with more security than to more exposed ports like Semarang or Oosthaven. With its level 65 shipyard, the CVEs can upgrade there (the 9/1/44 upgrade is an important one). And it'll be a stout triage center, especially when ARDs and ARs come up.

[RangerJoe]

Once you capture some oil production and refining capacity, that will also make it easier on you. Would you rebuild any damaged oil production and refining capacity? Or just some oil production so you can ship some oil to Australia which should have excess refining capacity? I know that will use supplies but that would be like trading supplies for fuel that you would not have to ship in.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I'll consider working out local oil production. Some centers are damaged but some may have production that makes it efficient to do so.

I was planning to repair whatever damage has accumulated to Soerabaja's shipyard, too. Nightly bombardments had done about seven or eight points of damage, but a mouseover last turn showed only two points of damage. It's possible that the Japanese have been repairing the yard.

[Canoerebel]

8/12/44 to 8/14/44

Battle of Soerabaja: Allied deliberate attack on the 14th nearly reaches 3:1, drops forts a level, and inflicts heavy casualties on the defenders. The base might fall tomorrow, as additional armor and an infantry division just arrived. Allied losses should be light from this point forward, so about 3k AV will soon be able to move to the other two Japanese strongpoints - Batavia (which won't require much more) and Djakarta (which will).

[jwolf]

I am amazed at how quickly the Java campaign went from a tossup to an Allied rout of the Japanese. Things turned so ugly so fast for the defenders that I almost felt sorry for them!

[Canoerebel]

It has seemed quick, but I wonder if that is partly due to the rate at which we're flipping turns. So I went back and looked at key dates:

Late June '44: The two sides engage in big air/sea battles around Ternate and Ambon.
Early July: The decision is made to proceed immediately with the invasion of Java.
July 7: Invasion of Banjowangi
July 19: Allied reinforcements arrived just in the nick of time to hold a key hex, severing the railroad between Soerabaja and Batavia. At this point, the large Japanese army on Java is bisected. It'll eventually be trisected.
August 14: Soerabaja falls and Batavia's garrison is crumbling (I haven't yet posted this development but will tonight).

So it took about five weeks to decide the Java campaign. Mop-up will take weeks, but that will allow troops to prep while some units go forward to work on Palembang (that's the working plan, but under evaluation).

[RangerJoe]

The relatively open terrain favors the Allies and the cultivated hexes make for fast movement. You may start to see a much more cautious IJN conserving fuel - or else the Heavy Industry will run out of fuel.

[Canoerebel]

To the best of my recollection, I've never been in a game before when the Japanese economy collapsed. Partly (entirely?) that may have been due, in past games, to my proclivity for invading Hokkaido or China while bypassing the DEI until late. There may have been very early games when Miller and John III had some issues, but that was long ago and not significant, as best I recall. It would be fun to see what happens if an when Japan runs out of fuel or supply.

[Canoerebel]

8/15/44 and 8/16/44

DEI: Soerabaja falls and Batavia is going to in the near term. That will allow the two Allied armies involved their to help deal with the third Japanese army - a large and powerful one in good defensive terrain at Djokakarta.

Mop up and security needs are taking a lot of time in and around Java, but the collapse of enemy defenses creating new and important chores: (1) select future targets and switch prep; (2) attend more vigorously to finding cadres and detachments and mating them with parent units hither and thither and yon; (3) determining when and where the next Allied leap forward will occur; and (4) figuring out what local targets need to be handled in the meantime, and what is needed to complete the tasks.

Three forward leaps were identified a week or two ago, and armies are prepping for each.

In the meantime, likely targets are: Palemang, Makassar (weakly held), Kendari, and Ambon. Balikpapan and Samarinda are possibilities. If the oil producers are crossed off the list for any reason, 4EB will target their oil. A host of new B-29s squadrons have staged from West Coast to Pearl to Port Moresby. They'll likely move to Soerabaja in a week or so, once the base is repaired, fully supplied, and plenty of aviation support present.

[RangerJoe]

I would consider Samarinda then Balikpappan before Kendari and Ambon. The first two have oil and open up Tarakan, Brunei, and Miri to bombing by 2E bombers as well as airstrikes against tankers. Kendari and Ambon produce nothing but do make good bases but Balikpappan can get a level 9 airfield.

If you can put the squeeze on oil and thus fuel, the fuel will have to be rationed much more between Japanese fleet operations and Heavy Industry.

Taking Borneo then opens up the coast of Indo-China for airborne and amphibious assault. What better way to help the Chinese?

[Canoerebel]

No you wouldn't. At least, you wouldn't if you had all the information at your hand to make the decision.

Troops are prepping for Samarinda but need some time before they're ready to go.

But for Kendari, the Allies can land two 100% prepped divisions at friendly Kolaka, to march across the island to the target. No problem there.

And for Ambon, there's already an Allied army ashore. I want to finish that base off soon, so that it doesn't linger. The reinforcing units are 100% prepped.

[USSAmerica]

Dan, if Palembang is too strong to take in the near term you mentioned bombing the oil. With the surrounding bases you have already taken, is Dave actually getting any oil/fuel out of Palembang? Why not just shut down any remaining shipping into Palembang by air until you are ready to roll over it on the ground? You might also sink some loaded troop transports. You can save your 4EB's to hit oil that Dave can still somewhat safely ship out, like Tarakan and Miri.

[USSAmerica]

BTW, brilliantly planned, organized, and executed campaign through the DEI! Kudos!

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Mike.

Dave is still trying to use Palembang and I've just begun countermeasures. Allied DDs sank a handful of TKs on the 19th. The day before, SBDs escorted by fighters got chewed up by good CAP. My sweeps have been fairly ineffective, so I think he has really good pilots there. I can change the equation by using LBA at night, but I'd like to rest the B-29s for awhile, as they've been used and abused over the past few weeks.

Mouseover + Recon indicates Dave is withdrawing the garrison - now at 39k. I thought he might, as he might have a case of PTSD from losing a 200k army on Java.

[RangerJoe]

I should have put in a caveat, all other things being equal. Since they are not equal, I can understand your planning to keep the enemy away from your supply lines.

How about night naval attacks with twin engine attack bombers for Palembang? Or is that a No Go area due to HRs and pilot training (or the lack thereof!)

[Canoerebel]

No house rules in effect, so that's not an issue. I like night bombing of ports and airfields but have no luck set to naval strike. But I don't have pilots training for Low N skill, so that may be the issue.

[CaptBeefheart]

Well done. How much fuel did you bag at Soerabaja?

Cheers,
CB

[Canoerebel]

See following post.

[Canoerebel]

8/17/44 to 8/24/44

Battle of Java: Batavia fell more quickly than expected and enemy resistance at Soerabaja was wiped out sooner than I'd figured. So the Allies are rolling in from both ends of Java. The final enemy redoubt, Djoakjarta, shows serious signs of rot. This campaign should conclude within the week.

This Decisive Campaign: Dave had a good mobile reserve, mainly at Singapore. When the Allied threat became serious, he moved quickly to reinforce. He brought in a lot of good units, and ordinarily could've drawn things out for a long time. But he had no real way of knowing a massive Allied army was coming from Ceylon. Within just a week, the campaign went from a taunt contest to decide control of the railroad to a meeting engagement in which one side had seemingly unlimited numbers pouring in. The Allies ended up with more than 9,500 AV. Japan never really had a chance, after those first few days.

Java: The 65-level shipyard at Soerabaja will be key to Allied ops over coming months, at least until (eventually) the Allies take Manila, Singapore and/or Hong Kong. Actually, I don't think Singers will play a big role, because by the time it's taken, the bulk of the Allied forces should be much deeper in enemy territory. Fuel and supplies can come to Java from Capetown, Perth and Colombo, with little risk and excellent efficiency. The island makes a great staging base and the three big ports should facilitate efficient loading for the major amphibious ops that will take place over the next four months or so. And local industry will generate some fuel and supplies. Hey, what's not to like?

Leave Now and Never Come Back: I could probably - right now, this very minute - mount a shoestring, thrown together massive invasion that could strike deep, beyond where Dave is expecting and prepared. It would likely succeed. Nemo would do exactly that. Others would too. On the flip side, this is a good time to re-organize, prep, gather, and upgrade the CVEs and other ships. I'm weighing both options and haven't made a final decision. I'm leaning towards the second, but circumstances may change.