OT: Corona virus

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obvert
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Korean researchers found substance inhibiting COVID-19

http://m.koreabiomed.com/news/articleVi ... idxno=7744

This is very interesting. It looks like it's primarily the bacteria in these specific berries, L. gasseri, that help inhibit the virus. There are other properties too from the berry itself.

Not living in the far North, it seems difficult to get the fresh berries, but I did find a source of frozen ones here in the UK. Has other good immune help so ordered some.

Here is an article about these bacteria and the other foods they inhabit, which are far more common, and already in my fridge! (bold)

You can also increase your Lactobacillus intake by consuming fermented foods, such as yogurt, kefir, miso, kimchi, tempeh, miso, pickles, and sauerkraut.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/the-bene ... seri-88697
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by ITAKLinus »

Regarding different infection rates in Germany and Italy.

I read an interesting article (in Italian) whcih I summarize.

As we know, most (up to 80%) of infections are via family members. In Germany, it is said, young people go out of their parents' house relatively young (IIRC the average is 23 years old), while in Italy young people tend to stay home with their parents or other older relatives much longer. That's mainly due to the combination of very low salaries for young people and inaffordable houses.

This situation might have helped spreading the virus so much in Italy and can be an explaination also for the Spanish situation, which doesn't look great. Family dynamics in Spain are fairly similar to the Italian ones for various reasons.

This, basically, implies that elders are more exposed in Italy. And therefore the death rate is so much higher in Italy than in other countries.

I strongly doubt that the factors above are the definitive explanation regarding the difference between German infections and Italian ones, but I am quite open to the idea that they have a relevant role.



Also, it's very likely (not to say certain...) that in Italy we are overestimating the number of deaths due to coronavirus. In many countries, they do count people who actually die of coronavirus, rather than WITH coronavirus. It's a light but substantial difference.

I was having a conversation regarding different practices in Ukraine and Czech Republic and it was quite funny to see how different procedures can really change numbers.
For example, in Urkaine deaths due to lung cancer are 2.49%, which is quiet low (compared for example with 6.5% of Norway or 7.5% of Luxemburg, just to make two random examples). Also, the incidence of smokers is outrageously high in Ukraine.
Still, if you die because your body is super f@cked up by lung cancer and you have, to make an example, an heart attack, your death cause is listed in the heart attack statistics.

To put it more bluntly, you can have a much much lower death ratio depending on how you calculate cov-19 deaths. In Italy, again IIRC, there have been only 12 certain deaths due to coronavirus. That changes the perspective radically.

I suspect Germany is somehow counting deaths in a different way. I don't know which country is correct in its counting, whether Italy or Germany, but I believe that we can have true comparisons only when the overall mortality rates for the year will be available.


Italian healthcare system is notoriously good and even if we assume it's worse than the German one, the difference in mortality cannot be explained by that.




Regarding third world countries (basically, Africa since I don't have proper first-hand information and experiences on other ones). I believe that they do get Cov-19 but the young population is saving them from more severe effects. Basically, their backwardiness is helping them. It should also be noted that: A) there are very very few facilities to do proper testing; B) these countries are generally less globally connected; C) people with severe diseases have little to none support and they are likely to die (therefore, there isn't a very high percentage of the population living with several pathologies)

I suppose, on the other side, that malnutrition and very poor hygienic conditions can have a tremendous effect in the eventuality of a massive outbreak there.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Ian R »

Meanwhile in the land of Oz, our case number has gone exponential*. [*Not really, I am being cynical.]

It however has done this from a low base.
As at 3pm on 23 March 2020, there have been 1,709 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 313 new cases since 3pm yesterday.

The fact that most of these cases have egressed from a series of docking cruise ships, seems not to suit the scaremongers and dickheads in the media.
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obvert
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by obvert »

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

Regarding different infection rates in Germany and Italy.

I read an interesting article (in Italian) whcih I summarize.

As we know, most (up to 80%) of infections are via family members. In Germany, it is said, young people go out of their parents' house relatively young (IIRC the average is 23 years old), while in Italy young people tend to stay home with their parents or other older relatives much longer. That's mainly due to the combination of very low salaries for young people and inaffordable houses.

I had thought about this, and also read about it earlier, that even if they don't live together, they live nearby, so they see each other often. This is not true in the US in big cities nearly as much, and less true in some other Northern European countries. The region of the first outbreaks in Italy was also smaller, rural towns, not big cities, where traditional lifestyles and big family groups might be more common.

In London the population is younger, but socialise a lot and are very diverse nationally. There are groups with the same kinds of traditional living arrangements of Italian families, and also large communal houses/flat for both multinational groups and the young. So spread might happen very quickly through those groups.
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obvert
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by obvert »

The FT again shows really interesting stats on the Chinese economy still not being up to 2019 levels, in spite of the message coming out that all is back to normal.



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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Kull »

We might have finally turned the corner in Italy. I've expanded the table to show the past 6 days, and if you look at the Total Case Increase percentages on the attachment, you'll see that the numbers rose for three days (red), held more or less steady for two more (yellow) and dropped a LOT yesterday (green). Part of the decrease is due to a revised case count out of Marche (see the two salmon-colored cells) which dropped the total number of cases between the 21st and 22nd, but even if that number had risen by 600 (the otherwise expected increase), we'd still be looking at a 4-point drop in the day-over-day percentage increase.

Take that one step further and we see the decrease is happening both North AND South. The Mortality numbers are still pretty ugly, but that's a trailing indicator.

The only caveat would be if hospitals are so overwhelmed that testing protocols are being abandoned, but if so, you would only expect to see it in a place like Lombardy - not everywhere. So this seems solid. But still, it's just one day.

Pertinent links:

1) Daily Italian Stats by province here

2) Original post with regional map of Italy here

3) The last post on this topic here

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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by RFalvo69 »

Yet another record-breaking day two days ago in Italy: 793 dead in a day. Yesterday the number went down to 651. Of course it is too early to put these number in context.

I keep posting these hoping that they could help people in other countries to see how the virus is impacting our lives - and hopefully get at least an advanced warning.

Milan deployed the Army in the streets and the checks are even more frequent. I was stopped for the first time - twice - during a morning trip to the Supermarket.

In the Italian region of Marche the superintendent mobilised the Coastguard to guarantee the lockdown even if you live near the seaside, and implemented some more stringent quarantine measures. He then took his bicycle to return home - and was promptly stopped by the Police. I guess that his measures work (he was let go after a check).

Other regions are considering to deploy the Coastguard, but nothing official as of now. Meanwhile, in Puglia they started using drones to check for crowds.

You cannot anymore run around in public spaces (including parks and even if alone). It is allowed to run or walk around your house or in your inner park, if you have one - a good thing for elderly people who need their daily walk.

If you own a second house, maybe at the seaside, you cannot move from the one you are currently living in to the other. About 10,000 people were sent back in the Emilia Romagna region alone.

The number of people denounced for violating the quarantine climbed to 82,041 - 1,943 of these for lying in their auto-certification (a criminal offence).

The President of the Industrialists' Guild (Confindustria), Enrico Boccia, said that this is a "war economy" and that we are losing 100 billion Euro every month.

Here in Lombardy sick people die alone. Often their families/loved ones are quarantined. In other cases they simply cannot enter the maximum biosafety area where the infected are held. You die, you are put in a coffin and stacked with other coffins, a priest says some words and then the Army trucks bring you to the crematorium.

But there are also heartwarming news. Overwhelmed, the Civil Protection (the Italian FEMA) put out an "open call" for 300 new medical personnel. In one day over 7,000 people with various degrees of medical knowledge (from ex-nurses to retired doctors) answered the call (including an ex-doctor who is now a priest). This is amazing, but remember that these volunteers now need to be equipped (amid the shortages) and trained. Is was still an amazing thing.

After the doctors sent by China, yesterday 52 between doctors and nurses arrived in Italy from Cuba. Germany, in turn, is ready to take in a surplus of sick from Lombardy - either suffering by Coronavirus or other aliments.

Another bit of good news: if you (auto-certify) that you are not sick, you can call a dentist. They are available only for urgent needs (bad teeth and abscesses) but it is better than nothing (I still shudder at the thought).

Both the small town of Bugliano (near Bergamo) and... er... BELGIUM banned "orgies, gangbangs and all non-essential sexual activities with 3 people even in indoor areas." Please, define "essential" in the current context...

National Weekly Lottery has been suspended.

Mayors from all parts of Italy are starting to show signs of a mayor nervous breakdown.

Meanwhile, a new phenomenon is arising: Social Justice Warriors. They are self-nominated "Judge Dredd"s who take on their shoulders the duty of maintaining the quarantine. It could be a good thing. Sadly, the stupidity of these people shows in various forms.

Most of them take pictures of people in the streets and post these on social media - with names and other personal info if they know them. This is, of course, very illegal and you can be sued for doing it - not to mention the various reasons as why people can be legally outside. In a case, the very fury of hell was rained on Twitter against a picture of two people holding hands. It turned out that one of them was a disabled person.

More disquieting are the signs put outside apartment blocks warning "anyone not belonging to the block" that they will be denounced and/or suffer dire consequences. A curios thing that these signs have in common is the disregard for basic grammar rules.

Yesterday evening I was returning from my daughter's flat when a car passed me. There was a lone woman at the wheel, and she stopped at a streetlight (an eerie action: it was the only car around). All of sudden the unusually quiet streets of Milan were lacerated by the screeching of another woman! "STAY INSIDE YOU KILLER!! YOU ARE KILLING PEOPLE BY GOING AROUND LIKE THAT!!" It was so out of the blue that I almost jumped out of my skin. The woman in the car pulled down the window and counter-screeched "I'M A NURSE, YOU MORON!! MOVE YOUR ASS AND GO HELP SOMEONE!! HOPE THAT YOU WILL NOT FIND YOURSELF UNDER MY CARE!!"

This actually went on for half a minute, then the woman in the car just roared away, like a jet launched by a carrier's catapult. I found myself ready to - I'm not making this up - impersonate a plainclothes officer had the woman at the window started screaming at me. But she just slammed the window shut.

I wonder what the consequences will be should these accidents start to happen in a country with laxer gun laws than Italy.

I'm suffering from... too much stress, worries and isolation, I guess. It happens in the morning: while I'm in that span of time between sleep and wakefulness I feel an inexplicable sense of anguish. When I get up it goes away. I now sleep more and, when needed, I go to the Supermarket at 8:30 AM. It is the opportunity to, at least, see some people.

I have a friend from way back who is now a bigwig doctor specialised in sleep disorders. I called him and he is, of course, overwhelmed on another front: people who simply cannot sleep anymore. The risk for some of them is to abuse their sleeping aids (pills, drops...) and become addicted. We chatted briefly and he made two interesting points:

The first is not as obvious as it would seem. True, the virus, plus social isolation, plus confinement (and, maybe, loved ones being sick) equals inescapable anxiety. But there is another factor: during the quarantine we think too much. I agreed: I think about staying safe. I think about my younger daughter who lives in London, now jobless, sharing a flat with a friend (a father worried because his daughter hasn't a boyfriend - what is the World coming to?) And I wonder about my family back in Calabria and my business. And I can't do anything about these worries - being confined for most of the day in an hotel room.

My "Doctor Sleep" friend a few years ago authored a paper about how the new forms of digital interaction (smartphones "in primis") damage our sleep habits. Today he told me "Buy a Playstation". I guess that Steam will do.

The second point that he made blindsided me. If, for any reason, you need to take a lot of medications, it is possible that your doctor will prescribe their doses according to your daily routine. But these days daily routines are going down the drain. He is revising all of his patients medical planning, while co-ordinating with some other doctors. This is another way for this emergency to damage us in ways not easy to anticipate.

Tonight I dreamt I was trying to learn Advanced Squad Leader. Now even dreams are anguishing...

We all live one day at the time. Planning ahead is impossible: the situation changes hourly. As usual, listen to official sources, use your head and stay safe.
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Kull
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Kull »

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Yet another record-breaking day two days ago in Italy: 793 dead in a day. Yesterday the number went down to 651. Of course it is too early to put these number in context.

Thanks man. It's easy enough for somebody like me to post stats, but the visceral effect of your posts is....very affecting. Thanks again for doing this.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Kull »

ORIGINAL: RFalvo69

Both the small town of Bugliano (near Bergamo) and... er... BELGIUM banned "orgies, gangbangs and all non-essential sexual activities with 3 people even in indoor areas." Please, define "essential" in the current context...

OMG [X(]

If you are worried that your sexual activities might be entering the "non-essential" category, just post this picture in your bedroom:


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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Olorin »

At which point will people realize that the "cure" is worse than the virus itself?
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Jorge_Stanbury »

The rule should be; you can only have a GB, orgy, etc if minister Maggie de Block participate... this will kill the mood significantly [:'(]
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by mind_messing »

Unsure if posted already - well worth a read.

Also, I was impressed with the quality of the data viz - an example of charts done right

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

MindMessing, I've read it through once and will have to do so again. There's good analysis there but it's going to take another reading or two before I understand everything. At first blush it seems like critical care beds is the key to everything, assuming countermeasures and climate and possible treatment breakthroughs are insufficient. Thanks for posting.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Chickenboy »

A drive by posting from me.

I noticed that the John Hopkins COVID-19 chart has changed significantly today. It appears as though they have county by county information from the US now, instead of the less granular state by state data. It really conveys a sense of where the problem areas are. Also, the lower right corner of the screen graph has changed to reflect daily case counts for a given country. This makes (sorry, Kull) individual spreadsheet tracking superfluous at this point.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Kull »

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

A drive by posting from me.

I noticed that the John Hopkins COVID-19 chart has changed significantly today. It appears as though they have county by county information from the US now, instead of the less granular state by state data. It really conveys a sense of where the problem areas are. Also, the lower right corner of the screen graph has changed to reflect daily case counts for a given country. This makes (sorry, Kull) individual spreadsheet tracking superfluous at this point.

Yeah, but it doesn't give per-province numbers, nor the ability to make comparisons over time. The granularity is where the real information lies!
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

I rely on the Johns Hopkins interactive map a lot but there are issues from time to time. A few days ago, for instance, all the "recovered" case tallies from state to state in the US were zeroed out. That's still the case today. The switch to orange bars at lower right is much less visually appealing that than the red bars used previously, IMO.

"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Canoerebel »

I wish you were posting more! What're you thinking, these days?

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

A drive by posting from me.

I noticed that the John Hopkins COVID-19 chart has changed significantly today. It appears as though they have county by county information from the US now, instead of the less granular state by state data. It really conveys a sense of where the problem areas are. Also, the lower right corner of the screen graph has changed to reflect daily case counts for a given country. This makes (sorry, Kull) individual spreadsheet tracking superfluous at this point.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: Kull

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

A drive by posting from me.

I noticed that the John Hopkins COVID-19 chart has changed significantly today. It appears as though they have county by county information from the US now, instead of the less granular state by state data. It really conveys a sense of where the problem areas are. Also, the lower right corner of the screen graph has changed to reflect daily case counts for a given country. This makes (sorry, Kull) individual spreadsheet tracking superfluous at this point.

Yeah, but it doesn't give per-province numbers, nor the ability to make comparisons over time. The granularity is where the real information lies!

Per 'province'? If you're referring to Canada, yes-I noticed that their reporting mechanism doesn't seem to have changed.

But the granularity in the United States is useful to spot where the big hot spots are. Right now, about half of the US cases are in and around New York City. Other top 10 city populations (Los Angeles, Houston, Chicago, San Antonio, Dallas, etc.) are a small fraction of the New York distribution. That's helpful information, IMO.
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I wish you were posting more! What're you thinking, these days?

Well, you'll just have to visit THE THREAD!!! more often. [:'(]
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RE: OT: Corona virus

Post by mind_messing »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

MindMessing, I've read it through once and will have to do so again. There's good analysis there but it's going to take another reading or two before I understand everything. At first blush it seems like critical care beds is the key to everything, assuming countermeasures and climate and possible treatment breakthroughs are insufficient. Thanks for posting.

Key takeaway from me is the level of under-reporting.

The nations topping the charts are all wealthy nations with robust healthcare.

This isn't a virus that only rich countries get, so the scale of the problem is much, much greater than would be suggested in the current reporting.
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