The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

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ADB123
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by ADB123 »

"Weak"...at the moment i can't see a place where he's weak...i thought i had overwhelming forces in the Solomons...gotta re-think of my understanding of the term "overwhelming ".

My definition of "overwhelming" is where you can easily crush your opponent at minimal loss to yourself. In order to accomplish that you have to have security of your Supply and Replacement lines, as well as superior Forces.

At this stage of the Game a series of island bases such as the Eastern Solomons, the New Hebrides, the Tongas and so on do not have that security of Supply and Replacements that the Allies need. They are too far away from Allied Supply and Replacements. And the Allies do not have superior Forces at this time, other than 4Es.

Therefore, you have to build up in anticipation of when you will start to achieve parity of Forces, which is Summer 1943 - if you conserve your forces ahead of time.

Essentially, thanks to the inherent Japanese advantages built into scenario 2, the nature of the house rules that you agreed to, and your inexperience with the WitPAE Game engine as it plays in pbem, you are in January 1943 essentially where the historical Allies were in January 1942 in terms of your ability to counter the Japanese advance.

There are places where you can start to build in anticipation of serious Allied counterattacks in late 1943 and early 1944, but small island chains are not those places.

I'll make you an offer - if you are interested, send me a private message and I will send you a copy of my current game so that you can see where I have built up. Many of those places are still valid for you.
Alpha77
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by Alpha77 »

ORIGINAL: ADB123
3 - Set ALL of your Floatplanes (not Cats) to Night Naval Attack at 1000 feet - they will have a chance to attack the enemy subs

Question if I may ?

There is no night asw mission ? So for nighttime I need to use nav attack at 1000 to kill subs ? Will search planes also attack subs at night if I use search (if asw is not available at night) Thanks[;)]


Ah and I read 2-3 imo not so good advises above:

a) "Carrier raid to Palembang". Will result probably in a disaster...reason: Look at the map.

b) "In 2 months the Allies get masses of Hellcats which will eat the Jap for breakfast".... masses can be defined as ca. 300 ? But 300 are still not really much. I would change the 2 months to 4 months therefore. Also they will be no wonder weapon, still need to be employed with care consider the Jap should have some also pretty good planes by then. Maybe GJs pilots are better true.

I would search the deciding battle in stage of the game tbh (but if you are prepared to play 1 more year in which you may suffer a bit more only to be -maybe- then on top of your oponent productionswise, still maybe not strategical go ahead)

Also I would guess next Jap move vs. Nadi/Suva... from there he can cut off (at least try to) the USA - OZ connection.
Alfred
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by Alfred »

ORIGINAL: FatR

... listen too much to armchair strategists, like Alfred...

Hmn, don't know about Russian but in Anglo-Saxon countries, the term "armchair strategist" has quite a pejorative connotation.

I pay very close attention to what the few disclosed high level military officers in this forum say about military matters and the game as it is quite difficult to label them as an "armchair strategist". Would you be so kind as to disclose your own high level Russian military credentials so that I can add you to the list of bona fide strategic experts? Or alternatively, as evidenced by your behaviour in Nemo's game/AAR, you have some other suitable qualifications and experience in lieu of a Russian equivalent War College background.

I would then be most appreciative if you could demonstrate to such an unqualified person as I am, the specific errors and flaws I committed. In particular I am most interested in how one should go about thinking how to approach the strategic issues and problems present in this match. As a Russian, it is quite possible you may well be aware of Alexander Kotov's book "Think Like a Grandmaster", that will give you an idea of what I am after. I think you would agree that the usual recommendations made in this AAR to move this here and that there is of very limited value as it doesn't really explain why the move might be good or bad, nor does it allow for altering one's plan in the face of a constantly changing situation.

Oh and of course GreyJoy, who for weeks has clearly been overwhelmed by the quality of the advice and platitudes given, would also benefit.

Alfred
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GreyJoy
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by GreyJoy »

Hi all,

the game will be on hold till monday (european time). This should let me enough time to reflect and decide what to do. I won't post nor ask anymore advices till then, cause at the moment my main concern is to clean my mind and "feel" my own strategy, trying to take into consideration every single suggestion kindly given by you readers and come up with a "personal" plan that may be a good sinthesis (sp?!) of the various problems related with the present strategical situation.

Again, i thank all of you for your efforts in helping me understand and learn this awesome game. No matter how it will end this match, it will have been a wonderful journey[&o]

See u soon

GJ
FatR
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by FatR »

ORIGINAL: Alfred
Hmn, don't know about Russian but in Anglo-Saxon countries, the term "armchair strategist" has quite a pejorative connotation.
Yes, and this is exactly what was intended. Your snide attitude is completely unwarrated by your known AE success record, more accurately, lack thereof (not that ABD123's ongoing PBEM excuses his aggression, but at least he has one). As about your errors, try to provide actual advice, rather than talking a lot and hardly ever saying anything in an attempt to sound deep.
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jeffk3510
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by jeffk3510 »

FatR- you're runing this AAR, just like your ruined Nemos...and every other AAR. This is one of the most enjoyable AARs, so please stop hijacking it...
Life is tough. The sooner you realize that, the easier it will be.
FatR
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by FatR »

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Rader told me that he stopped almost every HI consumtpion for any Naval program, concentrating only on planes and pilots...
Unless he lied (and even if "almost" convenietly excludes carriers), these are quite good news for you and something that you should consider a success. Particularly considering that at least 1/3rd of the modern Japanese destroyer force is already lost.

But anyway, you are right, that you should think your strategy through for yourself. We'll wait and see...



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GreyJoy
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: FatR
ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Rader told me that he stopped almost every HI consumtpion for any Naval program, concentrating only on planes and pilots...
Unless he lied (and even if "almost" convenietly excludes carriers), these are quite good news for you and something that you should consider a success. Particularly considering that at least 1/3rd of the modern Japanese destroyer force is already lost.

But anyway, you are right, that you should think your strategy through for yourself. We'll wait and see...




I think his CVs were not included into that evaluation. For sure he was talking about Subs and other "minor" stuff. Don't know about DDs cause if i was him i'd never halt the DD production. However for sure he concentrated mostly on boosting his aviation rather than his other assets.

Will be a long week end of study and testing. A part from the evaluation Alfred suggested (regarding AVs and LCUs), i wanna test a similar enviroment, where i have some Hellcats on hand.

Thanks!

GJ
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Bullwinkle58
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: FatR
ORIGINAL: Alfred
Hmn, don't know about Russian but in Anglo-Saxon countries, the term "armchair strategist" has quite a pejorative connotation.
Yes, and this is exactly what was intended. Your snide attitude is completely unwarrated by your known AE success record, more accurately, lack thereof (not that ABD123's ongoing PBEM excuses his aggression, but at least he has one). As about your errors, try to provide actual advice, rather than talking a lot and hardly ever saying anything in an attempt to sound deep.

So the quality of one's analysis is dependent on having an AAR? Really, chief?

Your behavior in Nemo's game ought to have gotten you banned from the forum. You are a despicable individual. Aside from that, Alfred has perhaps the deepest understanding of the game's mechanics of anyone posting today, and I know from extensive private communications that he does not present conclusions without extensive background analysis and examination of all available options in the given situation. His advice to GJ to "do the math" was spot on and long overdue.

When I see Alfred spank posters such as yourself, knowing as I do a bit of HIS real life qualifications, I have to smile. Pray you never do run into him in a PBEM game. A wood chipper ain't in it.

(In case that last is too slangy for a native Russian speaker--he'd destroy you. And unlike me, he'd smile and be polite while doing it.)
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aztez
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by aztez »

You guys really should take your personal fights and grudges elsewhere. Start an separate thread where you can bash each other to death.

This is not the place by any means.
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GreyJoy
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: aztez

You guys really should take your personal fights and grudges elsewhere. Start an separate thread where you can bash each other to death.

This is not the place by any means.

Agree Aztez.

Yes guys, please, i really liked the atmosphere of this thread and it'd be a pity if this atmosphere vanished because of personal problems between some of the posters and contributors.

Thanks in advance.

G.J.

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Bullwinkle58
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: aztez

You guys really should take your personal fights and grudges elsewhere. Start an separate thread where you can bash each other to death.

This is not the place by any means.

I think your concerns should be addressed to FatR, not to me. I stand by my statement to him, and about him, and I'll let it go at that.
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aztez
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by aztez »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: aztez

You guys really should take your personal fights and grudges elsewhere. Start an separate thread where you can bash each other to death.

This is not the place by any means.

I think your concerns should be addressed to FatR, not to me. I stand by my statement to him, and about him, and I'll let it go at that.

It was "addressed" to everyone. I'am well aware on these happenings etc.

The AAR's are not the place to "fight and bash". Other ways to do it elsewhere.

Now you got me side tracked already so I shut my mouth on this.

Tx Greyjoy... you start planning your moves with time. Good luck.
FatR
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by FatR »

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I think his CVs were not included into that evaluation. For sure he was talking about Subs and other "minor" stuff. Don't know about DDs cause if i was him i'd never halt the DD production. However for sure he concentrated mostly on boosting his aviation rather than his other assets.
Thinking things through, complete shutdown of the naval program is indeed implausible. Looking at the economic balance of Scen 2, it is easily possible to crank out about 1500-1800 aircraft per month just by turning off merchant production (relying on the large surplus that Japan has at the beginning) and sub production (because they are very expensive, relatively to their combat value). And Rader doesn't need that many yet, with Japanese AC losses being less than 11k at the beginning of February.

Speaking of boosting the aviation, I suspect you didn't have any agreements against unlimited airgroup resize? That's probably the reason Japanese pilot quality is still maintained somewhat (although I should repeat, that the observed combat results already point at Allies having a significant edge in this area already).


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wpurdom
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by wpurdom »

Hi all,

the game will be on hold till monday (european time). This should let me enough time to reflect and decide what to do. I won't post nor ask anymore advices till then, cause at the moment my main concern is to clean my mind and "feel" my own strategy, trying to take into consideration every single suggestion kindly given by you readers and come up with a "personal" plan that may be a good sinthesis (sp?!) of the various problems related with the present strategical situation.

Again, i thank all of you for your efforts in helping me understand and learn this awesome game. No matter how it will end this match, it will have been a wonderful journey

See u soon

GJ

GreyJoy - you are a great sport and human being. As is typical of newbies, you are sometimes buffeted by events and confused by the conflicting advice you get. In the game it is likely that you may fail to take the optimal analytical line. But the unfailing politeness and good cheer with which you react to the cacophony of comments, some extremely astringent, shows that in human interactions you operate at a high level.

You have a good idea. Take the breather, decide both the strategy and the type of game you want to play and then have a go at it. And its up to you whether you want to go into grand-master type training or just play to have fun, or somewhere in between. (Canoerebel wilfully refused to attempt to master the mechanics of pilot management in his fight against Miller, 'cuz it just wasn't fun to him. Of course, he sometimes got frustrated with the effects on his game).

So also keep in mind that you more-or-less deliberately choose to fight a match from the heavy underdog position, so don't be too surprised that things often don't go as well as you hope.

Good luck, godspeed, and have fun with "Inexperience, Act 2."
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GreyJoy
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: wpurdom
Hi all,

the game will be on hold till monday (european time). This should let me enough time to reflect and decide what to do. I won't post nor ask anymore advices till then, cause at the moment my main concern is to clean my mind and "feel" my own strategy, trying to take into consideration every single suggestion kindly given by you readers and come up with a "personal" plan that may be a good sinthesis (sp?!) of the various problems related with the present strategical situation.

Again, i thank all of you for your efforts in helping me understand and learn this awesome game. No matter how it will end this match, it will have been a wonderful journey

See u soon

GJ

GreyJoy - you are a great sport and human being. As is typical of newbies, you are sometimes buffeted by events and confused by the conflicting advice you get. In the game it is likely that you may fail to take the optimal analytical line. But the unfailing politeness and good cheer with which you react to the cacophony of comments, some extremely astringent, shows that in human interactions you operate at a high level.

You have a good idea. Take the breather, decide both the strategy and the type of game you want to play and then have a go at it. And its up to you whether you want to go into grand-master type training or just play to have fun, or somewhere in between. (Canoerebel wilfully refused to attempt to master the mechanics of pilot management in his fight against Miller, 'cuz it just wasn't fun to him. Of course, he sometimes got frustrated with the effects on his game).

So also keep in mind that you more-or-less deliberately choose to fight a match from the heavy underdog position, so don't be too surprised that things often don't go as well as you hope.

Good luck, godspeed, and have fun with "Inexperience, Act 2."

Wpurdom, that's really too kind of you. I don't think i do deserve so much, but thanks anyway. In a forum is much more easier to be a "nice person" than in RL unfortunately...here if someone pisses you off, you simply have to change the http address and that's all.

However guys, i made up my mind. Most of you won't like it, i know, but Wpurdom's words made me reflect.
I think i'll play somewhere "in between". I've studied and made tests during the last days. Hellcats won't save my butt alone, nor the corsairs. However i'm sick of getting frightened by my own shadow and i decided that, wise or not, i'll give him fight, blood and steel. If i'll badly lose...well...i'll surely get frustrated...but, we will have both had fun times of playin. And that's the only thing that does matter at the end of the story.

So tomorrow the Allies will try to save the Solomons, not evacuating them but fighting to reinforce and to hold.

It's gonna be a meatgrinder. We'll all have fun!

Still thanks for everything. Hope you're gonna follow me throughtout this adventure

See u soon[:)]
House Stark
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by House Stark »

I think you made a fine decision to stand and fight. Evacuating might save you some troops, but you might've also ended up with more taking an unplanned swim. And the longer you keep Rader busy in the Solomons, the longer before he can ship that 5000 AV back to meet you in India. And if you can keep in the air...your planes for his pilots is a fair trade, if it means that you can keep killing them as fast as he can train them. Your plane replacements increase in quality and quantity much more than his at this point. *Disclaimer, AE newb talking* I think that the worst thing you could do would be to give him a breather.
FatR
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by FatR »

A good decision, GreyJoy, but remember, you need to have not only determination to fight, but a plan as well[:)]. Consider what elements of your force can be sacrificed for the victory (like xAKs) and what supplementary operations (based on the knowledge of KB's location and Japanese troop commitments) can be undertaken to relieve the burden of Solomons' defenders. Apply a very serious effort to secure your rear (this applies both to building more bases from which you can support your Lunga cluster and hunting down Rader's subs, which vexed you so much recently). Don't be afraid to commit troops there at the expense of the other areas in the Pacific - prospects of Japanese invasions outside of LBA support are rather slim at the moment, as long as you don't lose your carriers.
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jonreb31
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by jonreb31 »

That's the spirit! I've been watching this game intently, and was hoping you would decide to stay and fight.

Give em' hell!
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Dixie
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RE: The RN Worst Day

Post by Dixie »

Good decision.  Even if you don't win you'll learn far more from fighting through this situation than you would from running away.
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