The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

So, what's John thinking these days? He isn't posting in his AAR, which is unusual, but he is making the occasional "pregnant" comment in his emails. It's fun trying to piece together an intelligence summary from bits and pieces and comments and tidbits. I think I've come up with a reasonable analysis, but I could be way, way off (as you will know from reading his AAR).

John has probably just finished upgrading his carriers. He views the massive activity in the Bay of Bengal with interest. He wants to attack, but he thinks it's a feint intended to draw him away from NoPac. While his carriers were in the yards, he beefed up his garrisons in NoPac to withstand an assault. Now he wants to position his carriers where they can respond to an Allied move. He knows that SoPac is vulnerable, way out there at the end of his LOC, but it's relatively insignificant.

He is probably posting his carriers at one of three locations - Saipan, Truk or Babeldaob. I'd be surprised if he posted them further SE - Rabaul or Tulagi or Kwajalein. They might also be in Japan. There is also a small chance that he beefed up the Aluetians so that he could detach his carriers into the Bay of Bengal to overwhelm my forces there.

He's not going to maintain his "hair trigger" stance with respect to NoPac forever. And he's fighting the urge to go raiding - to use his carriers in the ways that call to him. It would be great to see them employed somewhere in the next three weeks, but I'm not counting on it.

Bottom Line: I still expect a massive surface combat action in the Bay of Bengal, possibly but not likely augmented by carriers. I think the carriers are in western CenPac.

[Paladin1dcs]

Quick question about your TFs leaving the West Coast and Pearl. Have you had any IJN SS sightings in that area at all recently? Are you completely undetected? I ask because it would seem, considering the amount of shipping that's moving from those two ports not only for this operation but for general operations and logistics, that this area would be constantly watched by IJN units of some type. At least I would post SS around my opponents' major shipping ports, especially if I had the ability to use sub-based FP to scout those areas.

You mentioned that John is using xAKLs to scout up in NORPAC, does this hint at a possible weakness that you could expoit? Is Japan really that short of recon assets in John's mod?

I realize that these are pretty basic questions, but John seems to be the type that plays fast and loose with the basics to try to go for the big score quickly, so I'm wondering if he's overly susceptable to being tripped up in regard to his basics such as scouting and planning. He's already shown a weakness, which you've exploited, in land combat by not utilizing combined arms, so I wonder if that same mindset translates to naval issues as well.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

So, what's John thinking these days? He isn't posting in his AAR, which is unusual, but he is making the occasional "pregnant" comment in his emails. It's fun trying to piece together an intelligence summary from bits and pieces and comments and tidbits. I think I've come up with a reasonable analysis, but I could be way, way off (as you will know from reading his AAR).

John has probably just finished upgrading his carriers. He views the massive activity in the Bay of Bengal with interest. He wants to attack, but he thinks it's a feint intended to draw him away from NoPac. While his carriers were in the yards, he beefed up his garrisons in NoPac to withstand an assault. Now he wants to position his carriers where they can respond to an Allied move. He knows that SoPac is vulnerable, way out there at the end of his LOC, but it's relatively insignificant.

He is probably posting his carriers at one of three locations - Saipan, Truk or Babeldaob. I'd be surprised if he posted them further SE - Rabaul or Tulagi or Kwajalein. They might also be in Japan. There is also a small chance that he beefed up the Aluetians so that he could detach his carriers into the Bay of Bengal to overwhelm my forces there.

He's not going to maintain his "hair trigger" stance with respect to NoPac forever. And he's fighting the urge to go raiding - to use his carriers in the ways that call to him. It would be great to see them employed somewhere in the next three weeks, but I'm not counting on it.

Bottom Line: I still expect a massive surface combat action in the Bay of Bengal, possibly but not likely augmented by carriers. I think the carriers are in western CenPac.

Hmmm...so EITHER his carriers are at one of five obvious historical Japanese bastions OR they're...um... not? If they're not, they are EITHER en route for the Bay of Bengal OR they're en route somewhere else? Lastly, if John comes to the Bay of Bengal in force, he MAY bring a massive surface raider force alone OR in conjunction with carrier support?

Wow. Very impressive noodling, CR! [;)]

[Canoerebel]

To this point, the long string of transport, combat, carrier and support TFs strung out over the Pacific seem to be moving in a black hole. I haven't seen the slightest indication of detection. No enemy subs have been seen in this region. The closeset have been a few operating north of Pearl, near Christmas Island, and one still lurking between Wellington and Christ Church. The latter (and any companions it might have) is the only area of concern.

I don't think John is particular short of patrol assets in this mod, though he may have such a pressing need for so many places that he might feel stretched. But the use of picket ships south of the Aleutians certainly makes sense. I'd do it too if I were him.

I have two important decisions to make over the next ten days:

1) I can shorten my time in transit if I route my ships north of New Zealand rather than south. However, the odds of encountering a sub (they've been posted there before) or patrols out of Noumea makes this too risky. I probably won't do this unless I get a KB sighting far away that prompts me to throw caution to the wind in favor of speed.

2) As long as this apparent "black hole" exists (no signs of detection, no sign of serious enemy ship movements in theater, no SigInt of troops in bound, no sign of vigorous base building), I won't try any feints in the theater targeted. If, however, the black hole is breached, I may use a CVE (or both of them) to feint at New Caledonia just before creating a larger feint in NoPac. The intent would be to persuade John that I was obviously not targeting anything down this way, thus heightening his concerns about the Aluetians.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Wow. Very impressive noodling, CR! [;)]

It's even less impressive when you consider that I may be totally wrong.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy
Wow. Very impressive noodling, CR! [;)]

It's even less impressive when you consider that I may be totally wrong.

Yes. I agree. [:'(]

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To this point, the long string of transport, combat, carrier and support TFs strung out over the Pacific seem to be moving in a black hole. I haven't seen the slightest indication of detection. No enemy subs have been seen in this region. The closeset have been a few operating north of Pearl, near Christmas Island, and one still lurking between Wellington and Christ Church. The latter (and any companions it might have) is the only area of concern.

I don't think John is particular short of patrol assets in this mod, though he may have such a pressing need for so many places that he might feel stretched. But the use of picket ships south of the Aleutians certainly makes sense. I'd do it too if I were him.

I have two important decisions to make over the next ten days:

1) I can shorten my time in transit if I route my ships north of New Zealand rather than south. However, the odds of encountering a sub (they've been posted there before) or patrols out of Noumea makes this too risky. I probably won't do this unless I get a KB sighting far away that prompts me to throw caution to the wind in favor of speed.

2) As long as this apparent "black hole" exists (no signs of detection, no sign of serious enemy ship movements in theater, no SigInt of troops in bound, no sign of vigorous base building), I won't try any feints in the theater targeted. If, however, the black hole is breached, I may use a CVE (or both of them) to feint at New Caledonia just before creating a larger feint in NoPac. The intent would be to persuade John that I was obviously not targeting anything down this way, thus heightening his concerns about the Aluetians.

Setting up and monitoring/maintaining a patrol network of subs and patrol aircraft is tedious, time-consuming work - and it must be done every turn. If John really does like to get to the action and flip turns quickly he may be neglecting the net that should have detected your convoys long ago! E.G. Glen float planes used at max range suffer high ops losses, and if you don't check on that detail you start getting holes in your search net.

[AcePylut]

Good points BB... they "work around" I've found for this (cuz I just don't have time or patience to click on each unit every turn, then make 4 or 5 clicks to reset orders per unit. That's about 10 billion clicks per turn )... is to set each unit for around 30% rest. That seems to keep most of them up and flying, and by clicking on the "all air groups" button each turn (or whatever it's called up in the top task bar thing), filtering out all but the search, and looking at how many are damaged, or low on ac/pilots, I get enough of an overview each turn. Every 7 -10 days I look at each unit more closely as a matter of routine. Seems to work pretty well. I guess.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

Good points BB... they "work around" I've found for this (cuz I just don't have time or patience to click on each unit every turn, then make 4 or 5 clicks to reset orders per unit. That's about 10 billion clicks per turn )... is to set each unit for around 30% rest. That seems to keep most of them up and flying, and by clicking on the "all air groups" button each turn (or whatever it's called up in the top task bar thing), filtering out all but the search, and looking at how many are damaged, or low on ac/pilots, I get enough of an overview each turn. Every 7 -10 days I look at each unit more closely as a matter of routine. Seems to work pretty well. I guess.

Does that work with Glens - 1 per sub?

[AcePylut]

dunno. 50% Nav search also builds exp for the lower exp Netties. I'm not sure how many people use bombers to "keep watch" over a supposedly quiet area though.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

To this point, the long string of transport, combat, carrier and support TFs strung out over the Pacific seem to be moving in a black hole. I haven't seen the slightest indication of detection. No enemy subs have been seen in this region. The closeset have been a few operating north of Pearl, near Christmas Island, and one still lurking between Wellington and Christ Church. The latter (and any companions it might have) is the only area of concern.

I don't think John is particular short of patrol assets in this mod, though he may have such a pressing need for so many places that he might feel stretched. But the use of picket ships south of the Aleutians certainly makes sense. I'd do it too if I were him.

I have two important decisions to make over the next ten days:

1) I can shorten my time in transit if I route my ships north of New Zealand rather than south. However, the odds of encountering a sub (they've been posted there before) or patrols out of Noumea makes this too risky. I probably won't do this unless I get a KB sighting far away that prompts me to throw caution to the wind in favor of speed.

2) As long as this apparent "black hole" exists (no signs of detection, no sign of serious enemy ship movements in theater, no SigInt of troops in bound, no sign of vigorous base building), I won't try any feints in the theater targeted. If, however, the black hole is breached, I may use a CVE (or both of them) to feint at New Caledonia just before creating a larger feint in NoPac. The intent would be to persuade John that I was obviously not targeting anything down this way, thus heightening his concerns about the Aluetians.

Setting up and monitoring/maintaining a patrol network of subs and patrol aircraft is tedious, time-consuming work - and it must be done every turn. If John really does like to get to the action and flip turns quickly he may be neglecting the net that should have detected your convoys long ago! E.G. Glen float planes used at max range suffer high ops losses, and if you don't check on that detail you start getting holes in your search net.

Aye. If he used them at a high % NavSearch at extended range, OPS losses could be expected in short order. However, for normal range at a 60-70% NavSearch setting, I rarely have problems with Glen OPS losses.

Then again, this pattern has some search 'holes' in it too. Not all Glens will fly on all days and the range is limited-thereby something can slip through the system.

So you build an overlapping meshwork and hope for a little bit of luck too.

[Canoerebel]

9/8/42

NoPac: No altercations of any kind. The airfield at the dot hex west of Kodiak is 35% to level one. When this reaches level one, will that have the effect of stirring John's spidey senses or will it have the opposite effect of making him wonder, "Hmm, he's being too obvious." I'm weighing that now.

CenPac: Quiet. A few small "fake" amphibious TFs are gathering in and near Midway. At the appropriate time, these will move north behind the screen of three picket DDs. When that happens, a mass of Allied TFs will also move west from south of Kodiak.

SoPac: The lead TFs are nearly half way between Tahiti and NZ.

SWPac: Port Moresby airfield goes to level six.

Bay of Bengal: IJN subs laying mines at Chittagong and Akyab. It looks like one hit an Allied mine and sank, but an Allied DMS hit an enemy mine and went down. Enemy carriers (showing 36 F, 35 B, 1 Aux) are at Port Blair. While I still think the full IJN will hit the Allies at Akyab sooner or later, it's hard for me to believe that such a massive, juicy, exposed targets has been posted there for three months without John throwing everything at them.

Burma: The second Aussie div. teleported, joining the first in the open terrain. Tomorrow, these two units will attack what I think is a small enemy unit. 41st USA Div. moves into the open in three days or less.

[GreyJoy]

what do you mean with "teleport"?

[Canoerebel]

An Aussie division in a contested jungle hex was moving west through a friendly hexside to another jungle hex and had made 45 of 46 miles. The next turn, instead of moving into the adjacent hex to the west, it crossed an enemy hexside and arrived in an adjacent hex to the SE. The same thing happened with the first divsion about a week ago.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An Aussie division in a contested jungle hex was moving west through a friendly hexside to another jungle hex and had made 45 of 46 miles. The next turn, instead of moving into the adjacent hex to the west, it crossed an enemy hexside and arrived in an adjacent hex to the SE. The same thing happened with the first divsion about a week ago.

[X(] Very very strange behaviour! Gotta check...

[Encircled]

Damn, those Aussies are good!

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Damn, those Aussies are good!

[:D] 1st Kalgoorlie Kangaroo Korps - they'll hop over anything!

[JeffroK]

Wot!!!

The Pub's in the next hex???

[Encircled]

One of my favourite ever adverts

XXXX ad

[Canoerebel]

9/9/42

I'm on dial-up this morning, so won't be able to check out the ad, Encircled, until work tomorrow.

John: Due to some real life considerations, John politely asked for a slow-down on some days of the week. He also indicated that he's been flipping turns too fast, not giving some areas enough attention. I take this as meaning he's beginning to think the Allies are looking somewhere other than the Aleutians. We'll see.

Bay of Bengal: Two enemy carrier TFs at Port Blair. I don't think this is the full KB.

Burma: One of the two Aussie divisions attacks (oops, I apparently left the other in "move" mode) and gets 1:1 vs. 38th IJA Div. Both Aussie divs. will attack tomorrow. 754 Tanks emerged into the open hex to the NE and will join the Aussies. 41st USA Div. is in the open just to the SW and is likely to remain there until the issue in the Aussie hex is decided.

NoPac: An array of Allied shipping in the eastern Gulf of Alaska on legit missions, but mainly intended to draw enemy awareness.

CenPac: The American carriers to depart Pearl in eight days. Most of the TFs carrying key combat units are now between Tahiti and NZ. No sign of detection.