Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

10/3/44

Air Losses: Doubtful KB can launch another attack tomorrow. But LBA/kamikazes will be a concern.

Allies have a bunch of damaged carriers, but they'll stay on post for another three or four days to cover embarkation and disembarkation of various units.

Small enemy garrison at Samarinda didn't auto-bombard, so it has not artillery.

Allied subs are present in numbers and will try to pick of Soryu.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

That ship repair yard at Soerabaja will be busy in the next few weeks. But very useful to have it.

Yup. It's a level 65 yard, which is good. It's nearly empty now and was about to turn to CV Formidable, but that's a big, long job. The first task will be lightly-damaged (or SYS-damaged) carriers.

It's time to bring the ARDs and ARs in from Darwin.

[CaptBeefheart]

Did you capture much fuel at Palembang? Let's hope one of those oil centers on Borneo has a stash if not.

Cheers,
CB

[JohnDillworth]

Why didn't you strike back at the KB? Range looks good

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Did you capture much fuel at Palembang? Let's hope one of those oil centers on Borneo has a stash if not.

Cheers,
CB

Only 2k fuel at Palembang, but oil production should be fairly robust - Oil at 637; Refinery at 1020.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Why didn't you strike back at the KB? Range looks good

Allied strike aircraft are set to range two, for reasons set forth above (somewhere, amidst all the posts and graphics).

Death Star is configured heavily to defense, with a modest number of dive bombers and a moderate number of Avengers, many set to ASW. Defense was emphasized to serve the primary mission (protecting the amphibious TFs), to avoid a major CAP trap (Dave used a KB-fighter-only configuration a few battles back) and to concentrate on hitting enemy aircraft, should Dave attack.

I think KB has suffered so many massive air defeats that it's pilot cadre is brittle. If that's true, this battle may have further diminished its ability to offer battle. That will be important if the Allies do proceed with a non-linear, deep invasion.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Why didn't you strike back at the KB? Range looks good

Allied strike aircraft are set to range two, for reasons set forth above (somewhere, amidst all the posts and graphics).

Death Star is configured heavily to defense, with a modest number of dive bombers and a moderate number of Avengers, many set to ASW. Defense was emphasized to serve the primary mission (protecting the amphibious TFs), to avoid a major CAP trap (Dave used a KB-fighter-only configuration a few battles back) and to concentrate on hitting enemy aircraft, should Dave attack.

I think KB has suffered so many massive air defeats that it's pilot cadre is brittle. If that's true, this battle may have further diminished its ability to offer battle. That will be important if the Allies do proceed with a non-linear, deep invasion.

This may be true, but don't count on it. Even if the early war 80exp/70 skill types are gone he should have a lot of 60/70 pilots of all types if he's been doing his pilot training. The fighter pilots are difficult to replace but he may not have been using the KB's best on escort duty either.

This defensive DS or KB is an interesting configuration I've employed as Allies too. It can be tenuous earlier since CVEs are so brittle, but late I think works better.

You've really shut down most of the SRA now.

[JohnDillworth]

I get the point of going full "Spruance" here as it is an means to an end. If you total the week up you swapped some serious damage (but not much sunk) for a bunch of tankers and you pulled the teeth of the KB. Not so satisfying to the peanut gallery but in the long run more fun. It will take months to rebuild the strike aircraft and pilots but those carrier decks will have to be accounted for in you plans

[Canoerebel]

Yes, you're right.

From the outset, I've viewed this as the opening half of a bigger plan (hence my "painting a certain picture" comment, a page back). While I'm trying to win this battle, it's just as important to emerge in good enough shape to proceed, preferably at a modestly increased advantage. To this point, I think that goal is being served, but there's hard fighting to come....

[Canoerebel]

Re: Obvert's thoughts, the long series of carrier engagements have been pretty lopsided in favor of the Allies, at least in terms of plane/pilot losses. I think Allied pilot quality is now ahead of Japan's. Some of the veteran groups have experience in the 80s with skills commensurate or higher.

I don't know if that's such a big thing long term, but that remains to be seen. In previous games, I think Japan maintained a marked pilot-quality advantage deep, so this is new territory for me.

And how will kamikazes jiggle the puzzle I'm trying to piece together? I dunno.

[Canoerebel]

10/5/44

Battle of Makassar Strait: On the 3rd, Dave sends in kamikazes; on the 4th, KB closes to strike; on the 5th, I think it's likely he'll commit his combat ships. Orders are given to suspend landing ops at Samarinda, for all amphibs and carrier TFs to combine two hexes east of Balikpapan, and for the combat TFs to guard them and fan out to the NE and E. But the enemy gets inside my perimeter before it's secured.

[Canoerebel]

10/5/44

Battle of Makassar Strait: The enemy cruiser forces finds the amphibs before they retire to join DS.

[Canoerebel]

10/5/44

Battle of Makassar Strait: The wolves are loose among the sheep.

[Canoerebel]

10/5/44

Battle of Makassar Strait: Allied combat TFs engaged too late and too little, having missed the inbound wolves during the dark of the night.

[Canoerebel]

10/5/44

Battle of Makassar Strait: The Allies strike back.

There's a temptation to add, "too little, too late." Maybe not. The Allies have to stay on site to complete this op. Dave's attacked three consecutive days; my guys are a bit bloodied; his air arm probably shot it's wad; if today's clashes mean his combat TFs need a few days to regroup and replenish, perhaps the Allies control the field of battle.

DS will remain in place tomorrow. The Balikpapan amphibs will proceed to Samarinda to unload (the troops will advance by land). One of the amphib TFs involved in today's fracas will be recalled (they fled towards Soerabaja) to take aboard most of the Samarinda-prepped troops. They are already prepping for distant points.

DS probably needs to remain on site about three or four more days to provide cover for the troop ships. With Samarinda in Allied hands, fighter squadrons have come in to assist with local defense.

[Canoerebel]

This battle may not be over yet, but my hat is off to Dave. The Allies are considerably stronger, though tethered (due to my choices) to defense. He employed a layered attack over multiple days. His guys got close and landed punches. Things could've gone much better or much worse for the Allies...and may still.

This is one of those battles that is of such importance that "its the denominator, stupid" doesn't really apply. Sometimes, an outcome is so decisive that the points are relegated to tertiary status. But, to this point, the Allies have done fine by the denominator standard due to the big air battle of two turns back.

More importantly, the Allies aren't diminished going forward (yet). The assault shipping - a key - dodged a bullet. The carriers absorbed some damage and losses, but new arrivals and freshly upgraded ships at Soerabaja mean that DS won't be degraded. Samarinda has fallen, Balikpapan is isolated and likely can't last long, and Kaigun lost a lot of aircraft and some good DDs.

I had hoped to use this opening op to "paint a certain picture." Events overwhelmed that objective, so that I doubt Dave will take note of my delicate strokes with the brush on the canvas. The portrait was meant to invite him to believe I was configured defensively, as I had plans to change over to offense for part 2. Now he'll likely be expecting that, given what's happened here.

The fleet will need at least a few days at Soerabaja to manage quick repairs, etc. If it turns out the diminishment of DS requires more time in port, I may divert to the next step in the linear progression. But I still have hopes of going non-linear.

[Canoerebel]

10/6/44

Battle of Makassar: On the fourth day, the enemy rested.

No major activity today. A few mop-up strikes, mostly against IJN DDs.

So the Allies stay while the Japanese retire, sleeping on the battlefield, a sure sign of victory (as Napoleon put it).

This was a tough son of a gun. Allies prevail by air, Japanese prevail at sea, Allies prevail by points, Allies hold the ground.

Overall, I have a slightly used, soiled, slimy feeling that I goofed in the handling of my carriers and their range settings. This battle worked out fine but I don't feel good about it.

[Capt. Harlock]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Re: Obvert's thoughts, the long series of carrier engagements have been pretty lopsided in favor of the Allies, at least in terms of plane/pilot losses. I think Allied pilot quality is now ahead of Japan's. Some of the veteran groups have experience in the 80s with skills commensurate or higher.

I agree that Allied pilots seem to be ahead of the Japanese now. Note the high number of A7M2 Sams downed, while lesser numbers of Hellcats were lost. And the majority of the Hellcats were F6F-3's.

[Canoerebel]

10/7/44 to 10/9/44

DEI: Excepting a few small skirmishes here and there, things have remained nicely quiet in the DEI. The amphibious TFs have completed there work at Samarinda, so DS & The Herd are retiring to Soerabaja. Damaged ships will need time in the yard, ranging from days to months. The damaged carriers are key. The next op can go without a few (using in their place reinforcements already at Soerabaja), but I'll need to wait a bit for some triage. Enterprise, for instance, has moderate SYS damage and low FLT damage. If she needs more than 8-10 days, I'll strongly consider just going on without anything that won't be ready in a week.

The Palembang/Djambi campaign is over. I doubt Dave has much further north, so small units will sniff out that end of Sumatra.

B-29s have about eradicated oil at Miri and Tarakan. I think that leaves Brunei to attend to, plus Merak, Sumatra.

[BBfanboy]

These quiet breaks in the action while you are edging ahead tell me that your plan to keep some pressure on is working - the IJN just can't keep up so it cedes the contested seas while it regroups.

I question the plan to finish bombing Miri and Brunei oil production. Once you have air bases at Samarinda and Balikpapan operating bombers, he will not be able to take significant oil from those bases and you can use that oil later. Soerabaja has more refinery capacity than oil production so you can use small tankers to transfer the oil to Batavia where it will flow to Soerabaja (assuming Singapore is suppressed).