War in the Pacific as Planned--Allied

[herwin]

March 28/29 1942

I guess this is just for practice--a full-scale amphibious assault against Singkep, complete with shore bombardment by heavy cruisers and airstrikes by about 100 Netties.

Follow-up shock attack near Toungoo.

Ground combat at 56,51 (near Toungoo)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 14380 troops, 98 guns, 430 vehicles, Assault Value = 618
 
Defending force 2648 troops, 6 guns, 43 vehicles, Assault Value = 86
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 543
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1
 
Japanese assault odds: 543 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+), fatigue(-)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      11 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 10 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Vehicles lost 18 (3 destroyed, 15 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      2458 casualties reported
         Squads: 67 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 145 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Engineers: 15 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Vehicles lost 23 (23 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Units retreated 1
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    6th Tank Regiment
    1st Tank Regiment
    2nd Tank Regiment
    8th Tank Regiment
    21st Division
    4th Tank Regiment
    7th Tank Regiment
 
Defending units:
    46th Indian Brigade

Clearly, disruption needn't discourage a follow-on shock attack.

[herwin]

Singkep falls after airstrikes by about 150 aircraft.

The fast part of the KB is hanging out at Singapore. Meanwhile I refit the Yorktown class carriers at Pearl Harbor, in preparation for action in the South Pacific.

Bombardments continue near Sian. I reinforce the line.

Ground combat at 84,42 (near Sian)
 
Japanese Bombardment attack
 
Attacking force 1695 troops, 140 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2895
 
Defending force 75766 troops, 564 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1832
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      10 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
 
 
Assaulting units:
    5th Ind.Mixed Brigade
    9th Tank Regiment
    35th Division
    1st Ind.Mixed Brigade
    8th Armored Car Co
    27th Division
    10th Tank Regiment
    5th Armored Car Co
    12th Tank Regiment
    23rd Tank Regiment
    5th Tank Regiment
    13th Tank Regiment
    6th Division
    3rd Tank Regiment
    36th Division
    15th Tank Regiment
    110th Division
    41st Division
    11th Tank Regiment
    51st Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
    14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
    1st Mortar Battalion
    15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    China Expeditionary Army
    52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
 
Defending units:
    57th Chinese Corps
    3rd Chinese Corps
    1st Chinese Cavalry Corps
    29th Chinese Corps
    93rd Chinese Corps
    41st Chinese Corps
    9th Chinese Corps
    7th Chinese Corps
    76th Chinese Corps
    15th Chinese Corps
    36th Chinese Corps
    1st Chinese Corps
    66th Chinese Corps
    5th War Area
    14th Group Army
    39th Group Army
    31st Group Army
    3rd Group Army
    34th Group Army
    22nd Group Army
    36th Group Army
    57th AT Gun Regiment

[herwin]

March 30/31 1942

A Dutch sub catches a Japanese CM alone and hits it with two fish.

Air battles in central Burma.

Chinese buildup on the outskirts of Sian continues.

[herwin]

March 31/April 1 1942

Not a great deal of action. I'd consider the following a representative WWII attack at 3-1, but the casualties are out of line with historical experience. They are too high for both sides and overly biased against the defence. The game engine appears to be an MCMC model, but the divergence between historical and game results indicates the transition probabilities need rethinking.

Ground combat at 83,55 (near Nanchang)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 39543 troops, 338 guns, 66 vehicles, Assault Value = 1164
 
Defending force 11798 troops, 111 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 344
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 1244
 
Allied adjusted defense: 351
 
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
 supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      1241 casualties reported
         Squads: 2 destroyed, 83 disabled
         Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 43 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      2487 casualties reported
         Squads: 79 destroyed, 57 disabled
         Non Combat: 89 destroyed, 70 disabled
         Engineers: 13 destroyed, 15 disabled
      Guns lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)
      Units retreated 2
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    15th Division
    39th Division
    116th Division
 
Defending units:
    21st Chinese Corps
    3rd New Chinese Corps

[herwin]

April 1/2 1942

Not a great deal happened.

[ADB123]

Not a great deal of action. I'd consider the following a representative WWII attack at 3-1, but the casualties are out of line with historical experience. They are too high for both sides and overly biased against the defence

Harry - How do the results compare against actual Japanese/Chinese battles of 1941/1942?

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: ADB123

Not a great deal of action. I'd consider the following a representative WWII attack at 3-1, but the casualties are out of line with historical experience. They are too high for both sides and overly biased against the defence

Harry - How do the results compare against actual Japanese/Chinese battles of 1941/1942?

I work from percentage casualties, not absolute numbers. It's the relative percentage casualties that seem to determine who wins.

There isn't a lot of data available on operations in China. My Chinese data (and 2/3rds of my Japanese data) were from the Burma campaign. See Louis Allen, Burma: the Longest War, for a survey. The average Chinese division was comparable with a lower quality Soviet regiment, while the average Japanese division was comparable with a good quality Commonwealth division. (And was quite a bit better at the small unit level.) The Chinese troops tended to suppress easily and move away from heavy assault. (BTW, retreats tend to start in the support and rear troops. Front-line troops had little choice about holding out.) In modelling terms, the firefight would usually be over quickly, with the Japanese gaining firepower superiority, allowing them to advance at about a walking pace experiencing little resistance. That would produce relatively low casualties on both sides. Chinese units would hold positions well if they had no way out, and then it was like similar actions in the Soviet Union. They performed well once it became clear there was no alternative.

The Japanese invasion of Burma actually seems to have had fairly light casualties, especially given the extended time frame (December 1941-early May 1942). Burcorps (two divisions, one armoured brigade) lost about 1500 dead and 11,000 wounded, while the Chinese losses from their two armies (six or so divisions, each equivalent in combat power to a British brigade) were about three times as great, which makes sense in percentage terms. The Japanese (4 divisions) lost about 2000 dead and an unknown number wounded. Most of the campaign was mobile operations and encounter battles, suggesting disease and desertion might have contributed to the Chinese losses. Just guessing, the Allies appear to have lost about 30% during the campaign, while the Japanese probably lost about 20-25%.

The game engine uses firepower for causing casualties, but in reality it mostly functions in suppression--targets tending not to be in the places where you're shooting. The main factor involved in casualty causation is target acquisition, which in infantry warfare involves the troops moving around and poking into places. Low quality infantry move away from areas containing high quality enemy infantry, reducing further the casualties on both sides. In game terms, a Chinese corps had the AV of an Allied division and fought like an Allied brigade. However, with many times the manpower of an Allied brigade, it would take many times the numerical casualties.

[ADB123]

There isn't a lot of data available on operations in China. My Chinese data (and 2/3rds of my Japanese data) were from the Burma campaign.

Too bad. I was hoping that you had info on the actual Japanese-Chinese battles in China in 1941 and 1942. I'll have to wrack my tired old brain now and try to remember just where my vague memories of reading details about the campaigns in northern China came from.

Thanks -

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: ADB123

There isn't a lot of data available on operations in China. My Chinese data (and 2/3rds of my Japanese data) were from the Burma campaign.

Too bad. I was hoping that you had info on the actual Japanese-Chinese battles in China in 1941 and 1942. I'll have to wrack my tired old brain now and try to remember just where my vague memories of reading details about the campaigns in northern China came from.

Thanks -

Good question. There wasn't much activity in China during 1941-43. The countryside was held by the Chinese, while the Japanese occupied urban areas and transport corridors (and the Northern coal-mining areas). As a rule, the Chinese performed well when they had no choice. Most Chinese casualties were non-battle--disease and desertion. Decision in battle involves relative percentage casualties, and high percentage casualties only occur in major stand-up battles, which the Chinese avoided during the period except in Burma and the Salween valley.

[herwin]

April 2/3 1942

Japanese landings at Semarang and Kalidjati.

Shock attack at Toungoo by armour with infantry support. I doubt the Chinese will hold long.

Ground combat at Toungoo (57,50)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 14484 troops, 98 guns, 430 vehicles, Assault Value = 627
 
Defending force 9562 troops, 13 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 330
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 596
 
Allied adjusted defense: 687
 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      973 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 60 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 34 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      1316 casualties reported
         Squads: 3 destroyed, 116 disabled
         Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 66 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
 
 
Assaulting units:
    21st Division
    2nd Tank Regiment
    6th Tank Regiment
    4th Tank Regiment
    1st Tank Regiment
    8th Tank Regiment
    7th Tank Regiment
 
Defending units:
    200th Chinese Division
    96th Chinese Division
    22nd New Chinese Division
    11th Group Army

[herwin]

April 3/4 1942

Semarang and Kalidjati become Japanese.

[herwin]

April 4/5 1942

My opponent comments: Practical case 1: Deliberate is better if your odds are worse.

My response: I suppose, but unless you expect your tanks to carry you to victory, not attacking would be even better. (Reinforcements are coming into the line.)

Ground combat at 84,42 (near Sian)
 
Japanese Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 91654 troops, 860 guns, 765 vehicles, Assault Value = 3019
 
Defending force 80494 troops, 485 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2168
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 1541
 
Allied adjusted defense: 3481
 
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      1935 casualties reported
         Squads: 5 destroyed, 127 disabled
         Non Combat: 47 destroyed, 235 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
      Vehicles lost 198 (119 destroyed, 79 disabled)
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      2284 casualties reported
         Squads: 5 destroyed, 320 disabled
         Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 371 disabled
         Engineers: 22 destroyed, 19 disabled
 
 
Assaulting units:
    3rd Tank Regiment
    10th Tank Regiment
    5th Armored Car Co
    6th Division
    13th Tank Regiment
    110th Division
    5th Ind.Mixed Brigade
    23rd Tank Regiment
    5th Tank Regiment
    12th Tank Regiment
    41st Division
    15th Tank Regiment
    35th Division
    8th Armored Car Co
    9th Tank Regiment
    1st Ind.Mixed Brigade
    27th Division
    36th Division
    11th Tank Regiment
    China Expeditionary Army
    14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
    1st Mortar Battalion
    15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    51st Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
    52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
 
Defending units:
    16th Chinese Corps
    1st Chinese Cavalry Corps
    93rd Chinese Corps
    57th Chinese Corps
    29th Chinese Corps
    3rd Chinese Corps
    76th Chinese Corps
    7th Chinese Corps
    9th Chinese Corps
    66th Chinese Corps
    31st Group Army
    34th Group Army
    39th Group Army
    3rd Group Army
    22nd Group Army
    36th Group Army
    5th War Area
    14th Group Army
    57th AT Gun Regiment

[herwin]

April 5/6 1942

Deliberate attack at Toungoo. The combat outcome looks really weird. No tanks lost.

Ground combat at Toungoo (57,50)
 
Japanese Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 13856 troops, 98 guns, 430 vehicles, Assault Value = 591
 
Defending force 8419 troops, 13 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 232
 
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 449
 
Allied adjusted defense: 217
 
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 2)
 
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 2
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      9 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 41 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      948 casualties reported
         Squads: 8 destroyed, 87 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 53 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
 
 
Assaulting units:
    1st Tank Regiment
    4th Tank Regiment
    2nd Tank Regiment
    8th Tank Regiment
    6th Tank Regiment
    21st Division
    7th Tank Regiment
 
Defending units:
    200th Chinese Division
    96th Chinese Division
    22nd New Chinese Division
    11th Group Army

[herwin]

April 6/7 1942

Fast KB operating out of Singapore while some other Japanese carriers operate near Rabaul. Unfortunately my carriers aren't in position to give them a hard time.

Transport convoy at Port Moresby hit by the Rabaul carriers and sunk. 30 Australian Brigade had already landed.

Japanese attack on Bandoeng captures the hex.

Ground combat at Bandoeng (50,100)
 
Japanese Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 59233 troops, 678 guns, 192 vehicles, Assault Value = 1762
 
Defending force 5683 troops, 116 guns, 86 vehicles, Assault Value = 163
 
Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 1091
 
Allied adjusted defense: 361
 
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Bandoeng !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker:
 
Japanese ground losses:
      871 casualties reported
         Squads: 1 destroyed, 45 disabled
         Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 61 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      2451 casualties reported
         Squads: 28 destroyed, 22 disabled
         Non Combat: 93 destroyed, 56 disabled
         Engineers: 16 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Guns lost 42 (42 destroyed, 0 disabled)
      Vehicles lost 82 (71 destroyed, 11 disabled)
      Units retreated 5
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    56th Engineer Regiment
    18th Division
    41st Infantry Regiment
    148th Infantry Regiment
    4th Division
    2nd Division
    113th Infantry Regiment
    Sasebo 8th SNLF
    3rd Mortar Battalion
    3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
    56th Field Artillery Regiment
    1st RF Gun Battalion
    3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
    5th Mortar Battalion
    14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
 
Defending units:
    Mobiele Eenheid Battalion
    4th KNIL Regiment
    Andir ML Base Force
    3rd KNIL AA Battalion
    7th Avn Sup Afd

Japanese attack on Taung Gyi captures the hex.

Ground combat at Taung Gyi (59,48)
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 3821 troops, 26 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 127
 
Defending force 2740 troops, 10 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 117
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 190
 
Allied adjusted defense: 55
 
Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 0)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Taung Gyi !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)
 
Japanese ground losses:
      272 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      951 casualties reported
         Squads: 30 destroyed, 1 disabled
         Non Combat: 21 destroyed, 10 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Units retreated 1
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    143rd Infantry Regiment
 
Defending units:
    BFF Brigade

Japanese attack on Djokjakarta captures the hex.

Ground combat at Djokjakarta (52,103)
 
Japanese Deliberate attack
 
Attacking force 3016 troops, 14 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 103
 
Defending force 225 troops, 2 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1
 
Japanese adjusted assault: 98
 
Allied adjusted defense: 1
 
Japanese assault odds: 98 to 1 (fort level 1)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Djokjakarta !!!
 
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), leaders(-), morale(-)
 experience(-)
Attacker:
 
 
Allied ground losses:
      31 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
         Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 4 disabled
         Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
      Units retreated 1
 
 
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
 
Assaulting units:
    I./124th Infantry Battalion
    II./124th Infantry Battalion
 
Defending units:
    3/4th Avn Sup Afd

[herwin]

April 7/8 1942

I notice my opponent is using Oscar sweeps at 38,000 feet. I've been sticking with 19,000-20,000 for sweeps and not doing well. Despite what theElf thinks, I suspect WWII pilots had good reasons for operating at more moderate altitudes, but this seems to be an area where the game engine rewards excess.

Slow KB operating off Rabaul.

One of those fantasy battles for the armour enthusiasts

Ground combat at 56,51 (near Toungoo)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 324 troops, 0 guns, 93 vehicles, Assault Value = 62

Defending force 726 troops, 16 guns, 7 vehicles, Assault Value = 18

Japanese adjusted assault: 55

Allied adjusted defense: 3

Japanese assault odds: 18 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+), leaders(-)


Allied ground losses:
     325 casualties reported
        Squads: 7 destroyed, 9 disabled
        Non Combat: 10 destroyed, 7 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
     Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
     Units retreated 1


Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
   14th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
   1st Gloucestershire Battalion

Toungoo (11th Group Army) seems to be holding out.

Ground combat at Toungoo (57,50) Again one of those armour enthusiast wet dreams.

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 13774 troops, 98 guns, 430 vehicles, Assault Value = 591

Defending force 7490 troops, 13 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 154

Japanese adjusted assault: 197

Allied adjusted defense: 93

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
     115 casualties reported
        Squads: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
        Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


Allied ground losses:
     1087 casualties reported
        Squads: 9 destroyed, 70 disabled
        Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 26 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled


Assaulting units:
   6th Tank Regiment
   21st Division
   8th Tank Regiment
   1st Tank Regiment
   2nd Tank Regiment
   4th Tank Regiment
   7th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
   96th Chinese Division
   200th Chinese Division
   22nd New Chinese Division
   11th Group Army

Don't tell my opponent, but I have three xAKs currently unloading in Davao and two more approaching the port.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: herwin

April 7/8 1942

I notice my opponent is using Oscar sweeps at 38,000 feet. I've been sticking with 19,000-20,000 for sweeps and not doing well. Despite what theElf thinks, I suspect WWII pilots had good reasons for operating at more moderate altitudes, but this seems to be an area where the game engine rewards excess.

That's actually just what he said, and added that if people keep it to realistic altitudes the results are much more realistic.

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: herwin

April 7/8 1942

I notice my opponent is using Oscar sweeps at 38,000 feet. I've been sticking with 19,000-20,000 for sweeps and not doing well. Despite what theElf thinks, I suspect WWII pilots had good reasons for operating at more moderate altitudes, but this seems to be an area where the game engine rewards excess.

That's actually just what he said, and added that if people keep it to realistic altitudes the results are much more realistic.

Does that mean a house rule is needed?

[herwin]

April 8/9 1942

Quiet.

[herwin]

April 9/10 1942

Air operations.

[herwin]

April 10/11 1942

Next turn.