Return of the Sheep! - JocMeister(A) vs. MrKane(J)

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

A stark contrast to my last PBEM to say the least.

I wasn't trying for AV [;)]. Is the scenario you are playing equivalent to Scenario 2 in terms of extra ground troops for Japan?

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

RE Houston/Boise:

Opinions will differ, but to me, given the losses to date and his plugs in every choke point, the objective is to get them out of the theater to fight another day. There are no great options, looking at your screenie. But . . .

The Makassar Strait has essentially two plugs, one 4 CA close, and after/if you clear Balikpapan more nastiness to the south, and that only gets you to Darwin, which isn't home free. Going north around Borneo to Singers is already a non-starter even if there wasn't a BB plug there.

I'd try east for Pearl. Go two hexes south of Jolo until you get near the PI coast, then switch to Coastal mode, run around to Davao, and then flee east at Full. Screw the fuel.

Once out of air search range eastbound downshift to Mission and waypoint NE to about the height of French Frigate Shoals or even a bit more north. Get your two fastest sAKs at Pearl (or xAPs, or AMCs, whatever you have.) Put them in an Escort TF and send them to meet and merge and refuel Houston/Boise, which you also on this turn shift to an Escort TF tag. Don't escort these ships; just let them fly out into the open blue. If they're sunk send two more. But they probably will be OK due to their speed if they clear the inner sub cordon around PH.

Put the cruisers' float planes on ASW obviously.

No sure thing, and the 4 CAs to the immediate east probably get them, but it's a chance.

I'd be tricksier (it's a word). I would hop between small bases until I was clear of all of that surface congestion. 2-hex hop to Tawau, auto-disband. Unless he has recon planes (unlikely since his airfields are far away), he won't see you. Hop to the dot base next to Jolo (avoid Jolo in case he invades). Then hop to Zambo or Cota, or that rough base on the SW tip of Mindanao. Or some similar route. Only then would I abandon the "bases" and run east, angling north of the Marianas (if you catch a convoy on the way out, bonus!) and then to Midway. Probably no need to do full speed for more than a couple of days here and there.

The advantage to all of this is that you minimize the risk of surface contact, and in order to get you (even if he somehow knows what you're doing from a lucky nav search or something), he has to commit and bombard or bomb a specific port. If he picks the wrong one to bombard, his ships use up ammo for nothing and your escape becomes that much easier.

[Erkki]

Bedeloap starts with a 9-plane squadron of G3Ms. They have torps. Just saying...

[aztez]

Good luck!

I doubt he will he will end up with autovictory.

* Play smart mobile defense in China.
* He seems to blitzkrieg DEI and thus ignorin CenPac. Once you get enough troops grab Gilberts island chain. It is an atoll and he will have hard time invading those places.
* Other than don't panic he will screw up eventually with his timetable. It is only matter of time before that happens.
* Sneak some supplies into Philippines... that will make him regret that he did go there in full force.

Other than.. well just play smart! [:D]

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

Bedeloap starts with a 9-plane squadron of G3Ms. They have torps. Just saying...

Yes, but going south of Babeldaob is even more dangerous. They may have moved somewhere else by now, or maybe not. He hasn't taken any steps towards invading Mindanao (a mistake in my opinion - the island gets a nice boost in LCUs within the first few months, almost a doubling IIRC), so he may be ignoring it for now. The most obvious routes of escape for DEI ships are southerly - most have short legs and can't make the voyage across the Pacific, so MrK is probably going to focus all of his attention in that direction. If Houston/Boise can make it to the eastern shores of Mindanao, I'd put their chances of getting out at 50/50 or better.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

A stark contrast to my last PBEM to say the least.

I wasn't trying for AV [;)]. Is the scenario you are playing equivalent to Scenario 2 in terms of extra ground troops for Japan?

I´m note sure? But I hope not! Its SCEN 28!

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: aztez

Good luck!

I doubt he will he will end up with autovictory.

* Play smart mobile defense in China.
* He seems to blitzkrieg DEI and thus ignorin CenPac. Once you get enough troops grab Gilberts island chain. It is an atoll and he will have hard time invading those places.
* Other than don't panic he will screw up eventually with his timetable. It is only matter of time before that happens.
* Sneak some supplies into Philippines... that will make him regret that he did go there in full force.

Other than.. well just play smart! [:D]

Thank aztez! [:)]

Keeping calm and avoid panic will be very difficult in the coming months I´m sure! [:D]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Houston/Boise[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

I decided on what I believe is the most unexpected move. So I headed NE to go North of Mindanao. I set them to full speed. This is probably something I will come to regret eventually but after having refueled OPS was very low and mission speed would only get me 2 hexes. This would most certainly mean I would run into the Haruna TF again. Quite possibly some of the CA TFs too. By going full speed I hope to avoid at least the two CA TFs.

But in all honestly getting them out now would be nothing short of a miracle. Having Big KB come in from the East was a very nice move by Tom. I had a 1 turn window to go south and escape but I didn´t take it as I wanted to try and hit the shipping in the South China Sea. Now I will have to pay the price for what turned out to be a poor decision.

Live and learn!

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Hmm, speaking of suicide. Wonder when I should tell Maria I picked up a new PBEM? [:D]

About 10 seconds before she finds out by any other means ?

Thats a bit of an oopsie..

Make sure it's right after you've cleaned the house, washed the dishes, changed a diaper and made dinner. [:D]

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: obvert
Make sure it's right after you've cleaned the house, washed the dishes, changed a diaper and made dinner. [:D]

Thats just an ordinary day for me! Call me superhusband! [:D]

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I'd be tricksier (it's a word). I would hop between small bases until I was clear of all of that surface congestion. 2-hex hop to Tawau, auto-disband.

You have to be careful with that strategy...the ships need to get there quickly, otherwise they disband after air strikes. But that is a nice tactic, and would give those ships a breathing respite...

Mr. Kane has done a fabulous job of catching the thundering herd...I wonder if any ships sent to the east on Dec 8th could have made it?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I'd be tricksier (it's a word). I would hop between small bases until I was clear of all of that surface congestion. 2-hex hop to Tawau, auto-disband.

You have to be careful with that strategy...the ships need to get there quickly, otherwise they disband after air strikes. But that is a nice tactic, and would give those ships a breathing respite...

Mr. Kane has done a fabulous job of catching the thundering herd...I wonder if any ships sent to the east on Dec 8th could have made it?

None did. I just watched the replay and the last one heading E was sunk by a CL TF this turn. All the ones sent NE or S have also been sunk. Boise/Houston not attacked. [&o] Update coming tomorrow!

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I'd be tricksier (it's a word). I would hop between small bases until I was clear of all of that surface congestion. 2-hex hop to Tawau, auto-disband.

You have to be careful with that strategy...the ships need to get there quickly, otherwise they disband after air strikes. But that is a nice tactic, and would give those ships a breathing respite...

Mr. Kane has done a fabulous job of catching the thundering herd...I wonder if any ships sent to the east on Dec 8th could have made it?

None did. I just watched the replay and the last one heading E was sunk by a CL TF this turn. All the ones sent NE or S have also been sunk. Boise/Houston not attacked. [&o] Update coming tomorrow!

I still think you can port hop [;)]. It's true that they have to disband before air strikes, but that means you get 2 phases of movement in first! In the area you're in, it should be relatively easy to pick an unlikely spot within 6-7 hexes of current locations until you get to the eastern side of the PI, and then it's the metaphorical home stretch.

Did he detect them at all?

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lowpe




You have to be careful with that strategy...the ships need to get there quickly, otherwise they disband after air strikes. But that is a nice tactic, and would give those ships a breathing respite...

Mr. Kane has done a fabulous job of catching the thundering herd...I wonder if any ships sent to the east on Dec 8th could have made it?

None did. I just watched the replay and the last one heading E was sunk by a CL TF this turn. All the ones sent NE or S have also been sunk. Boise/Houston not attacked. [&o] Update coming tomorrow!

I still think you can port hop [;)]. It's true that they have to disband before air strikes, but that means you get 2 phases of movement in first! In the area you're in, it should be relatively easy to pick an unlikely spot within 6-7 hexes of current locations until you get to the eastern side of the PI, and then it's the metaphorical home stretch.

Did he detect them at all?

Not sure yet as I havn´t opened the turn! If they are undetected I´ll try to dash due east before turning either south or north.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]AutoVictory[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

I let the apprentice do the driving home today so I could reread Quixotes AAR while stuck in traffic. I found some very important things to take note of.

- He did NOT capture Karachi NOR Bombay.
- He did NOT inflict massive naval losses on Cannonfodder.
- China had NOT collapsed.
- Cannonfodder did NOT make any major mistakes.

Looking at the VP screen from the game there are some interesting things to see. The final score was 35032:6974 (5.1). The two major contributing factors where Japanese bases (almost 17k) and allied Army losses (13.200).

I can´t really do much about the army losses as I bet most of them are from China/PI + DEI. I will probably suffer similar losses. What I can effect is the Japanese Base points. What I find most scary is that he didn´t need anything really spectacular.

-SOPAC
-Northern OZ
-Southern India including Calcutta, Madras and Ceylon
-Most of China including 1(?) base in the central basin.

Scary stuff. [X(] I´ll try to read up on Cannonfodders AAR during the week. I can recommend them both btw since they are well written and very interesting to read.

Rereading the AAR have made me rethink a lot things. I think I´ve finally decided how I will fight this potential AV.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]AutoVictory[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

I let the apprentice do the driving home today so I could reread Quixotes AAR while stuck in traffic. I found some very important things to take note of.

- He did NOT capture Karachi NOR Bombay.
- He did NOT inflict massive naval losses on Cannonfodder.
- China had NOT collapsed.
- Cannonfodder did NOT make any major mistakes.

Looking at the VP screen from the game there are some interesting things to see. The final score was 35032:6974 (5.1). The two major contributing factors where Japanese bases (almost 17k) and allied Army losses (13.200).

I can´t really do much about the army losses as I bet most of them are from China/PI + DEI. I will probably suffer similar losses. What I can effect is the Japanese Base points. What I find most scary is that he didn´t need anything really spectacular.

-SOPAC
-Northern OZ
-Southern India including Calcutta, Madras and Ceylon
-Most of China including 1(?) base in the central basin.

Scary stuff. [X(] I´ll try to read up on Cannonfodders AAR during the week. I can recommend them both btw since they are well written and very interesting to read.

Rereading the AAR have made me rethink a lot things. I think I´ve finally decided how I will fight this potential AV.

Good on you for doing some digging.

Chinese/PI units are not worth that many VPs, especially if China hasn't collapsed. Still, 13,000 VPs isn't all that many by 1943. Both of my Allies games are sitting around 10-11,000 each for Allied Army VPs in mid-42 and I don't feel I have lost any major units to disasters that could have been prevented.

Pay attention to SOPAC. In avoiding AV, points on your side do a lot more for you than taking away points from him. You need to get better than a 4:1 exchange ratio. Therefore, if two bases are set up like so: Base A worth 50 for him but 5 for you, and Base B worth 20 for him and 20 for you, you should always go for Base B because even though Base A is a higher absolute total of VPs, in "AV terms" Base B it is worth more points. Basically, you want to pay attention to your denominator. This is why Noumea is so important, as well as your other multiplier bases. I believe I mentioned them in a previous post here, way back in the early pages (already on page 7 now....). Canberra is a x30; build it out completely. Anchorage is a x10, Socotra and Diego Garcia are likewise x10.

Don't forget about CONUS and India, either. Those bases may only be worth 1 point per level each, but it adds up. Only 6974 Allied VPs in that game suggests to me, without looking in the AAR, that the Allied player ignored the importance of basebuilding as well as ignoring the key locations on the map. What probably swung things to AV is southern India. Also I imagine not very many IJN ships were sunk...

That's not to say that you shouldn't take back Northern Aus if/when he takes it - but you have all of 1942 to do so. Also, pay attention to those base multipliers. 17,000 Japanese Base VPs suggests that many high value bases were built to the maximum, either before or after they were taken. Be careful of that. There's no point in building Calcutta's AF (for example) to the max only to have it taken from you.

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]December 15th - 41 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Not much more positives this turn!

------------------------
DEI
------------------------
Big KB now hovers between OZ and Java hitting the last ships trying to flee the DEI. None will likely make it. Does his sorties NEVER end? He must have sunk over 100 ships now.


------------------------
CENTPAC
------------------------
I had hoped not to give away the CVs location as a horde of Japanese subs are approaching. Sadly my SCTFs miss the AMCs and they come within CV range.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Enderbury Island at 161,137

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
F2A-3 Buffalo x 11
F4F-3A Wildcat x 11
SBD-2 Dauntless x 9
SBD-3 Dauntless x 9
TBD-1 Devastator x 3

Allied aircraft losses
SBD-2 Dauntless: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
AMC Aikoku Maru, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
AMC Hokoku Maru, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage

------------------------
Houston/Boise
------------------------
Completely undetected this turn. [&o ]. Lets see if I can shake him off.

Sorry for the extremely short update and lack of screens but my internet is extremely wonky. Finished with the turn 2 hours ago but I still havn´t managed to send the turn.

[JocMeister]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Good on you for doing some digging.

Chinese/PI units are not worth that many VPs, especially if China hasn't collapsed. Still, 13,000 VPs isn't all that many by 1943. Both of my Allies games are sitting around 10-11,000 each for Allied Army VPs in mid-42 and I don't feel I have lost any major units to disasters that could have been prevented.

Pay attention to SOPAC. In avoiding AV, points on your side do a lot more for you than taking away points from him. You need to get better than a 4:1 exchange ratio. Therefore, if two bases are set up like so: Base A worth 50 for him but 5 for you, and Base B worth 20 for him and 20 for you, you should always go for Base B because even though Base A is a higher absolute total of VPs, in "AV terms" Base B it is worth more points. Basically, you want to pay attention to your denominator. This is why Noumea is so important, as well as your other multiplier bases. I believe I mentioned them in a previous post here, way back in the early pages (already on page 7 now....). Canberra is a x30; build it out completely. Anchorage is a x10, Socotra and Diego Garcia are likewise x10.

Don't forget about CONUS and India, either. Those bases may only be worth 1 point per level each, but it adds up. Only 6974 Allied VPs in that game suggests to me, without looking in the AAR, that the Allied player ignored the importance of basebuilding as well as ignoring the key locations on the map. What probably swung things to AV is southern India. Also I imagine not very many IJN ships were sunk...

That's not to say that you shouldn't take back Northern Aus if/when he takes it - but you have all of 1942 to do so. Also, pay attention to those base multipliers. 17,000 Japanese Base VPs suggests that many high value bases were built to the maximum, either before or after they were taken. Be careful of that. There's no point in building Calcutta's AF (for example) to the max only to have it taken from you.

I think I hovered around 13k in my last game. Suffered pretty badly in China though due to a bad strategic experiment. [:D]

Yes, Noumea will be a very important base. Hard to defend early as the allies though. KB + a couple of IDs and I can´t do much about it. Then again its a good place to fight the Japanese on the very end of their supply line... as I wrote in another post its a very high intensity VP area. Noumea is a fantastic allied base with that 50x multiplier. But there are also some very good Japanese bases that I will need to deny Tom. Luganville and Efafe is 50x each. Nadi is 25x and Suva is 75x. Obviously won´t build anything but forts here in a good while.

Also not expanding any bases in Southern India or any place that I might lose for that matter. Every possible base in CONUS is already expanding. High starting AFs and little amount of Engineers make it slow going though.

Wrote a really long post and my internet ate it...

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

[font="Verdana"]December 15th - 41 [/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Not much more positives this turn!

------------------------
DEI
------------------------
Big KB now hovers between OZ and Java hitting the last ships trying to flee the DEI. None will likely make it. Does his sorties NEVER end? He must have sunk over 100 ships now.


------------------------
CENTPAC
------------------------
I had hoped not to give away the CVs location as a horde of Japanese subs are approaching. Sadly my SCTFs miss the AMCs and they come within CV range.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Enderbury Island at 161,137

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
F2A-3 Buffalo x 11
F4F-3A Wildcat x 11
SBD-2 Dauntless x 9
SBD-3 Dauntless x 9
TBD-1 Devastator x 3

Allied aircraft losses
SBD-2 Dauntless: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
AMC Aikoku Maru, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
AMC Hokoku Maru, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage

------------------------
Houston/Boise
------------------------
Completely undetected this turn. [&o ]. Lets see if I can shake him off.

Sorry for the extremely short update and lack of screens but my internet is extremely wonky. Finished with the turn 2 hours ago but I still havn´t managed to send the turn.

I'd call bagging those AMCs a positive! As a Japan player, I'm torn on them. They make such good raiders, but they also unload quickly and are great amphibious ships (with several thousand troop/cargo capacity). And they're 20 VPs each, which is nice for you.

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Good on you for doing some digging.

Chinese/PI units are not worth that many VPs, especially if China hasn't collapsed. Still, 13,000 VPs isn't all that many by 1943. Both of my Allies games are sitting around 10-11,000 each for Allied Army VPs in mid-42 and I don't feel I have lost any major units to disasters that could have been prevented.

Pay attention to SOPAC. In avoiding AV, points on your side do a lot more for you than taking away points from him. You need to get better than a 4:1 exchange ratio. Therefore, if two bases are set up like so: Base A worth 50 for him but 5 for you, and Base B worth 20 for him and 20 for you, you should always go for Base B because even though Base A is a higher absolute total of VPs, in "AV terms" Base B it is worth more points. Basically, you want to pay attention to your denominator. This is why Noumea is so important, as well as your other multiplier bases. I believe I mentioned them in a previous post here, way back in the early pages (already on page 7 now....). Canberra is a x30; build it out completely. Anchorage is a x10, Socotra and Diego Garcia are likewise x10.

Don't forget about CONUS and India, either. Those bases may only be worth 1 point per level each, but it adds up. Only 6974 Allied VPs in that game suggests to me, without looking in the AAR, that the Allied player ignored the importance of basebuilding as well as ignoring the key locations on the map. What probably swung things to AV is southern India. Also I imagine not very many IJN ships were sunk...

That's not to say that you shouldn't take back Northern Aus if/when he takes it - but you have all of 1942 to do so. Also, pay attention to those base multipliers. 17,000 Japanese Base VPs suggests that many high value bases were built to the maximum, either before or after they were taken. Be careful of that. There's no point in building Calcutta's AF (for example) to the max only to have it taken from you.

I think I hovered around 13k in my last game. Suffered pretty badly in China though due to a bad strategic experiment. [:D]

Yes, Noumea will be a very important base. Hard to defend early as the allies though. KB + a couple of IDs and I can´t do much about it. Then again its a good place to fight the Japanese on the very end of their supply line... as I wrote in another post its a very high intensity VP area. Noumea is a fantastic allied base with that 50x multiplier. But there are also some very good Japanese bases that I will need to deny Tom. Luganville and Efafe is 50x each. Nadi is 25x and Suva is 75x. Obviously won´t build anything but forts here in a good while.

Also not expanding any bases in Southern India or any place that I might lose for that matter. Every possible base in CONUS is already expanding. High starting AFs and little amount of Engineers make it slow going though.

Wrote a really long post and my internet ate it...

Yay internet!

Yeah. Others may disagree with me because it diverts forces from being available to defend western Australia, but I assign the utmost importance to Noumea. I was able to successfully defend it in one of my games, and in the other my opponent didn't even make it down to Ndeni. In my own game as Japan, I went for it just about right away.

Luganville and Efate do have nice Japanese multipliers, and are perfect examples of bases you need to take away from him if he builds them (I don't, at least not to something large - eventually you'll lose them as Japan). If you hold Noumea, you can force a battle here where the strategic considerations are in your favor. As you say, SOPAC is at the end of a very long SLOC for Japan. The nearest place that provides even a modicum of repair is Truk, and the nearest shipyard is where - Manila? Soerabaja, maybe? That's a long ways. You've got a nice medium-size shipyard at Sydney (and another one at Auckland), so only your Lexingtons and BBs have to go back to Hawaii for major repairs. Likewise, you should have large fuel stockpiles in Australia or New Zealand (or Noumea or Suva) while he has to haul everything from the SRA, or worse, from Japan itself.

In my Allied game, I sent reinforcements right away to Luganville and Efate (from Australia), figuring that the second wave would go to Noumea. I'm not sure if I would do it the same way again - maybe. Noumea isn't worth much to Japan if the Allies hold airfields at Luganville and Suva. For one thing, it's nearly impossible to get fighter support down there that early as airfields aren't built in the Solomons yet. If you can't transfer to Luganville, you may not be able to get the Zeroes to Noumea unless you bring them in by ship...

I've got lots of thoughts about SOPAC. I like playing there on each side, as I'm sure all of my opponents have figured out by now [;)]. It's a very interesting theater.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Looking at the VP screen from the game there are some interesting things to see. The final score was 35032:6974 (5.1). The two major contributing factors where Jpanese bases (almost 17k) and allied Army losses (13.200).

FWIW and a data point, in my game with Lokasenna, mid-September 1942, I've lost 13,813 Allied LCU VPs and the VP ratio is 1: 2.658. I'm in a not-good place, but it's possible to plug the dike elsewhere and play for time.

Total VPs are 33,012 to 12,421.