Fools Rush In Where Angels Fear To Tread: Panjack (A) vs. Q-Ball (J)

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
The difference between what and what?

Between a Japanese landing unloading at 1200 points with the bonus and 250 points per ship per turn without it. And of course the corresponding disruption from non-prepped landings. In an opposed landing this might make all the difference...or may not!

Sangeli,

My post was to a newer member of the forum and game and relating to the overall strategic situation for the entire game.

Sure, the Japanese could do another landing somewhere else that could result in 'X'. That wont change the number of victory points lost due to troops on Luzon. And there is nothing that can prevent a total takeover of the island from a dedicated Japanese foe.

This is my last post on it because it is not my intention to have an argument in someone else's AAR :]

[Panjack]

Up to January 8
---------------------
My focus is now on Burma.

#1: Japanese units are soon to attack at Pegu. One unit seems possibly trying to cross the river above Pegu and so I'm moving a unit up from Pegu one hex. Not good ground to fight where it is headed but at least it's behind a river.

#2: Intel says an invisible unit has crossed the border from Thailand. It's supposed to be a Thai cavalry unit.

#3: I'm moving an additional unit to join up with the unit behind the river, but I'm supposing the cavalry unit might cross the river before I can reinforce that hex.

#4: Self-inflicted wound. I decided to move some Chinese units into Burma and neglected to note that Paoshan has a garrison requirement. So for a week or so the dreaded red exclamation point has hovered above the city, terrifying the good citizens of that town. I'm assuming that means supplies have failed to get from Burma into China. Other units are trudging toward Paoshan and in a couple of days they will deflate the exclamation point.

I've been getting supplies into Rangoon...it now has 55k in supplies...with more on the way. I've lost a few transports in this effort but the losses have been smaller than I thought they would be.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack
#1: Japanese units are soon to attack at Pegu. One unit seems possibly trying to cross the river above Pegu and so I'm moving a unit up from Pegu one hex. Not good ground to fight where it is headed but at least it's behind a river.

Now that the the Japanese have Moulmein and the jungle hex to the north, your position in lower Burma has been compromised. Pegu, being in 1x terrain, cannot be held. And once that is gone Rangoon cannot be held for long either. I think it's time to pull out of lower Burma to avoid being destroyed. Getting your units of Rangoon is not so easy as you would think and you need sufficient time to do so.

ORIGINAL: Panjack
#2: Intel says an invisible unit has crossed the border from Thailand. It's supposed to be a Thai cavalry unit.

#3: I'm moving an additional unit to join up with the unit behind the river, but I'm supposing the cavalry unit might cross the river before I can reinforce that hex.

I wouldn't worry about an attack along road since the main approach has been compromised. A token blocking/tripwire unit should stop Thai cavalry I think and I don't think anything else will be coming up this way.

ORIGINAL: Panjack
I've been getting supplies into Rangoon...it now has 55k in supplies...with more on the way. I've lost a few transports in this effort but the losses have been smaller than I thought they would be.

With Moulmein in Japanese hands its just a matter of getting aviation support and planes there until bringing in supply into Burma is too dangerous to be worth a trip. Honestly if you have 55k now I would stop. Priority now for you should be in occupying bases like Akyab and trying to avoid giving away VPs in Burma. I think the most you can really hope for in Burma right now is a fighting retreat up north.

[Panjack]

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
Now that the the Japanese have Moulmein and the jungle hex to the north, your position in lower Burma has been compromised. Pegu, being in 1x terrain, cannot be held. And once that is gone Rangoon cannot be held for long either. I think it's time to pull out of lower Burma to avoid being destroyed. Getting your units of Rangoon is not so easy as you would think and you need sufficient time to do so.

I see what you're saying. I guess defending at Moulmein would have given me more time, but it seems given the possibility of an end run through Chiang Mai and the existence of a big air base at Tavoy it would just be a matter of time before Moulmein would have fallen unless I moved in a LOT of units for that defense.

[Sangeli]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

ORIGINAL: Sangeli
Now that the the Japanese have Moulmein and the jungle hex to the north, your position in lower Burma has been compromised. Pegu, being in 1x terrain, cannot be held. And once that is gone Rangoon cannot be held for long either. I think it's time to pull out of lower Burma to avoid being destroyed. Getting your units of Rangoon is not so easy as you would think and you need sufficient time to do so.

I see what you're saying. I guess defending at Moulmein would have given me more time, but it seems given the possibility of an end run through Chiang Mai and the existence of a big air base at Tavoy it would just be a matter of time before Moulmein would have fallen unless I moved in a LOT of units for that defense.

An end run around Chiang Mai isn't so much of a threat given that you have interior lines and good infrastructure in lower Burma. I'm not sure how Tavoy comes in the picture as Pegu is just as much in range of Tavoy as Moulmein is. But Moulmein is in 3x terrain, a road junction, and a level 4 airbase. With some reinforcements it can be held for a while. So now you know for the future.

[Panjack]

January 8, 1942
-------------------
Japan's assault on my big stack blocking the road to Sian was the major event of today. My troops performed as well as could be hoped. Many Japanese vehicles (and I hope that's mostly tanks) met a bad end.

Ground combat at 84,43 (near Nanyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 25797 troops, 263 guns, 253 vehicles, Assault Value = 1498
Defending force 35300 troops, 189 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 854

Japanese adjusted assault: 477
Allied adjusted defense: 997

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1156 casualties reported
Squads: 18 destroyed, 57 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 41 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Vehicles lost 144 (41 destroyed, 103 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
741 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 32 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled

Assaulting units:
23rd Tank Regiment
36th/A Division
3rd Tank Regiment
41st Division
9th Tank Regiment
37th Division
11th Tank Regiment
32nd Division
36th/B Division
6th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Army
11th Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
36th Chinese Corps
13th Chinese Corps
47th Chinese Corps
92nd Chinese Corps
4th Construction Regiment

[Panjack]

January 9 and 10, 1942
---------------------
Not much happening (that I can see). Japanese bombing from the air and from the ground continues in China. LCUs in China are moving slowly to get some advantage over their rivals. Units moving towards Burma haven't got any closer (I'm supposing units are being gathered for an attack).

I've yet to discover how Q-ball is getting his xAKs and TKs to and from Japan. Subs cruising in the area marked 1 encountered a vast merchant ship wasteland: few merchant ships were encountered, Japanese ASW was almost nonexistent, and detection levels of my subs was almost always 0/0.

I was clearly looking for ships in all the wrong places.

Plan B: plant subs in the areas marked 2, 3, 4, and 5 making sure I hit the coastal hexes. I expect some subs will have bad experiences in those shallow waters but I want, if nothing else, to force Q-Ball to expend more resources in protecting his merchants ships than he current seems to be doing.

The very first day a sub got to area 2 it tussled, on the surface, with an unescorted xAKL almost within sight of the Japanese coast. The next day a second sub launched torpedoes at another xAKL in the same area. I expect I now have Q-Ball's attention.

But, still, no high value merchants have been encountered. Over the new few days subs should be arriving in greater numbers in areas 3 and 4 and perhaps they'll come across something.

[Panjack]

January 11 - 15, 1941
------------------
Intel says that the 11th division is preparing to attack Karachi.

Singapore and Clark are both the site of relentless bombing from the ground and sky. An attack by Japan a couple of days ago knocked forts at Singapore down to level 1 and the end is near I fear.

China is going fairly well for me, I think. At A, Japanese units were hoping to get to the indicated hex, but tripwire units in A warned me of this approach, and delayed his movement while he killed them (thanks guys!)...and I was able to move into A faster than he was to move into the hex he desired. The key, of course, is that the hex he desired to fight in is 2x while the hex I desired to fight in (and got to) was 3x.

B is where a big battle occurred many days ago (reported above) in which Japan lost lots of vehicles (tanks I hope!). Since then Japan has bombarded in the hex but nothing more.

C is the current interesting situation. Japanese units saw a big stack behind a river on 3x terrain and so decided (so far as I can tell) to move across the river and attack from there. Unfortunately I only go wind of that after the little pimple appeared on the Japanese stack showing they were moving that way. I've been bombing, on and off, the Japanese units in that hex to slow them down and have been moving some units into what I'm supposing is the destination for some of these Japanese units. For good measure, who knows if this will work, I have a unit moving in behind these Japanese units to, I hope, reduce their supply somewhat.

D is where lots of Japanese units were moving but, again, discovering lots of Chinese units behind a river (this time in a 2x hex) they decided to stop. I'm moving a unit or two to the other side of the river for good measure.

E, the area all around Changsha, is where lots of land and air bombardments are occurring. Additional Japanese units are moving that way.

Japan's attacks have occurred starting from the upper right (including at what isn't on the map below, the Paotow region, and moving down toward the SW. I don't know if this is part of a plan to draw as many units away from my right flank. I'm not sure what happened to all the units that attacked Hong Kong and as far as I know they are luring in the shadows waiting to attack once I've moved units up towards where Q-Ball has been attacking. Some Japanese unit have been slowly inching up toward Kweilin (not on map below) attacking some of my units that were just minding their own business. Perhaps they are doing recon work finding out if I have any big stacks exist south of Kweilin. I have some big units not too far away sitting on stat mode, which will allow them to move quickly anywhere along the RR, but I'm afraid I don't have enough at this point to stop a full scale attack if one comes from the Hong Kong area.

[Panjack]

Question: Once Rangoon falls, can I assume units in Burma lose most of their access to supply? Yes they might pull some supply from China and maybe a trickle from India, but really they are cut off, right? Units in Burma must then either die fighting for various valuable properties or they must walk to India?

[Mike McCreery]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Question: Once Rangoon falls, can I assume units in Burma lose most of their access to supply? Yes they might pull some supply from China and maybe a trickle from India, but really they are cut off, right? Units in Burma must then either die fighting for various valuable properties or they must walk to India?

Or they get surrounded and die before they reach India...

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Question: Once Rangoon falls, can I assume units in Burma lose most of their access to supply? Yes they might pull some supply from China and maybe a trickle from India, but really they are cut off, right? Units in Burma must then either die fighting for various valuable properties or they must walk to India?

I am no expert on Burma but from reading many AARs it seems that supply will only flow well to upper Burma after the bases around Imphal and Kohima have been built up (which increases supply draw and pass-through).

IIRC, Crackaces is the forumite who advocates for making Burma a decisive theatre, and knows the ins and outs of supply movement there. You might try a PM to Crackaces with the question.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Question: Once Rangoon falls, can I assume units in Burma lose most of their access to supply? Yes they might pull some supply from China and maybe a trickle from India, but really they are cut off, right? Units in Burma must then either die fighting for various valuable properties or they must walk to India?

The monsoon plays a role. But keep Chittagong well-supplied and it will flow pretty well.

[Lowpe]

Build Ramree/Akyab and ship supplies in.

Burma can be a death trap for the Allies especially with amphib bonus active.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Build Ramree/Akyab and ship supplies in.

Burma can be a death trap for the Allies especially with amphib bonus active.

Building Ramree/Akyab in early 1942 is a dream, especially the former. Chittagong can be defended.

[Lowpe]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Building Ramree/Akyab in early 1942 is a dream, especially the former. Chittagong can be defended.

Don't disagree.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Building Ramree/Akyab in early 1942 is a dream, especially the former. Chittagong can be defended.

Don't disagree.

Ramree is a very good base to build once there are LSTs.

I think that Akyab is a Top-5 base to hold in the first 3-4 months given its location near Japanese air at Rangoon and the short hop to the railhead that leads into India, first-stop Calcutta. After Chittagong is stout it's a lot less important, although still VPs. Ask me how I know. [:)]

[Panjack]

Wargr, BB, Moose, Lowpe: thanks for your insights!

Yes, I see most of the troops in Burma are a dismal lot: low experience, low morale, and high fatigue. Pegu, in particular, seems to suck the life force out of anyone based there! I see some LCUs there have morale levels of 10. [:(]

I hate to hand over real estate without much of a fight, but it looks like death awaits anyone trying to defend lower Burma. And the upper Irrawaddy River valley seems like the inspiration for the phrase "the valley of the shadow of death" with its clear terrain and no real source of supply once Rangoon falls.

I guess it's too late to try to organize any real defense of lower Burma now. If I had defended at Moulmein, I might have got another couple of weeks for Rangoon and environs. But I didn't.

Three further questions:
(1) Am I wrong in thinking that the back door to China best defended starting at Paoshan?
(2) I bought out some Chinese LCUs and they have moved into the Lashio area. Is it best to use them to defend China, just eating the PP I paid, or should I zip them via RR to Prome and have them walk out to India?
(3) Can I assume that Japan wouldn't attempt to enter China from Burma via the road to Kunming? The flow of supply for units entering that way seems like it would be very low.

Any opinions welcome!

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Panjack

Wargr, BB, Moose, Lowpe: thanks for your insights!

Yes, I see most of the troops in Burma are a dismal lot: low experience, low morale, and high fatigue.

Like the old joke says "the food here is terrible, and such small portions!" IOW, everything you say is correct, with the addition that there are almost no replacements for them when they're destroyed.

Pegu, in particular, seems to suck the life force out of anyone based there! I see some LCUs there have morale levels of 10. [:(]

Yeppers. Get ooouuuuuttttt!

I hate to hand over real estate without much of a fight, but it looks like death awaits anyone trying to defend lower Burma. And the upper Irrawaddy River valley seems like the inspiration for the phrase "the valley of the shadow of death" with its clear terrain and no real source of supply once Rangoon falls.

Look at it this way: everything he takes he has to supply. Supply is Japan's Achilles Heel. And north of the valley is a big, sweet band of jungle. That's your stop line. Imphal is your bastion for 1942. Maybe 1943. Maybe 1944 . . .

I guess it's too late to try to organize any real defense of lower Burma now. If I had defended at Moulmein, I might have got another couple of weeks for Rangoon and environs. But I didn't.

No way to do it. No good reason to try it. Falling back is the right move. He wants Magwe and the oil. Let him have it, then burn it down as soon as you can.

Three further questions:
(1) Am I wrong in thinking that the back door to China best defended starting at Paoshan?

Best? No. Hard to force supply that far up the road. Worth some defense, but not the main force. Lashio is much better for your main fort.

(2) I bought out some Chinese LCUs and they have moved into the Lashio area. Is it best to use them to defend China, just eating the PP I paid, or should I zip them via RR to Prome and have them walk out to India?

I wouldn't take them to Prome. They can be bombed there. You have to hike a jungle gap sooner or later no matter where. I stay north. Go into Mandalay, and cross up there. Don't recall the name of the base I aim for to get on the train, but it's near a wasp-waist in the jungle. About one hex less jungle than the rest of the line. I think it starts as a dot. The Chinese won't starve in the jungle in that area; some will trickle. Get them on the train, then either Chittagong, Calcutta, Madras, or all the way to northern India to take over garrison duty and re-build.

(3) Can I assume that Japan wouldn't attempt to enter China from Burma via the road to Kunming?

Do not assume that at all.

The flow of supply for units entering that way seems like it would be very low.

I don't know how the rat bastids do it, but they seem able to pull supply through the Himalayas when needed.

Edit: Looked at the map. You can either rail to Katha (dot), go to Move, cross the jungle to the road near Imphal, then Move NE up the road to the railhead at Dimapur. OR, what I usually do, is rail to Shwebo, go to Move, walk NE to that flat piece of yellow road sticking out like a shelf into the jungle. Cross the jungle and river headed NW to the yellow/gray road junction SW of Imphal. Stay in Move and walk to Dimapur and the train. Minimize your days in the jungle. Everybody eats better on any kind of road.

[Panjack]

Thanks Moose. I would have liked to have delayed by abandonment of Burma for a couple more weeks (if I had defended further forward) but you're right: the time has come to walk briskly away from Burma. As we speak LCUs in Burma are grabbing maps and snacks, getting ready for their long road trips most likely punctuated by the frequent question, "Are we there yet?" The answer will be, of course, "Not for a very long time."

[Sangeli]

I agree with Moose. Best plan is to retreat to upper Burma via Mandalay. You can then dig into the 3x terrain on the fringes of the Burma plains. Since you are retreating before you are destroyed, you may have a shot at stopping the Japanese if they try to capture the heavy terrain north of Mandalay. Supply won't be great but it may be enough to get by. 3x hexes which are adjacent to 1x hexes under enemy control are great staging areas for attack and should never be given up without a good fight by the Allies. It will make the inevitable counterattack much easier.