Avoiding the Turkeyshoot – Marianas Scen Justus2 (J) vs nardiajn (A)

[Justus2]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: Justus2
I have thought about how I would try this from his side. I dont' think the initial strategy (Pagan and Tinian) were bad choices, if his initial landings succeeded. Pagan would have given him a key airfield early, and Tinian is potentially the easiest of the 'big 3' since it doesnt start with CD guns, tanks, or a lot of well-prep'd AV. I had good luck disrupting his landings, but you're right, if he would have focused overwhelming power on one early, to get an airfield, it would have helped him shut down my air early on.

Agreed about Tinian and Pagan being the initial targets. But they're only effective if you...you know...capture them. Besieging them for weeks and weeks and fighting to a standstill will not avail the Allies any benefit.

True - having spent my fair share of time writing military plans, I've always remembered von Moltke's quote about no plan surviving contact with the enemy!

[Justus2]

17 JULY
One of his CVs sends some Avengers after my xAKLs unloading at Guam, and he loses several to my CAP. I lost a mini-sub, but otherwise pretty quiet. Continuing to move KB and SCTFs into place NW of Guam to strike if I spot a real invasion.

[Justus2]

He continues to unload a lone xAK, and the BBs embedded with it bombard again, but no damage. Ground attack comes off at 1-12, casualties on both sides but I’m starting to lose more destroyed. 14th DIV is still hanging together, but the smaller units are pretty wrecked. [8|]

Pagan is still holding out, best he can get is 1-2 odds and I still have level 2 forts.

[Justus2]

Rough day for the empire today – I think I may have gone to the well once too often with my Fast Transport supply runs. Lots of sub action, mostly misses, but one puts a torp into CL OYODA. It was close to its destination, so I thought ‘at least it will make it and unload…’

Then his CVs struck, with a vengeance. [X(] Multiple waves (a couple more not shown, that didn’t get hits). Both CLs sunk after multiple torp and bomb hits. He has moved his CVs right into the island line, previously he always had them backed off a couple hexes.

[Justus2]

At Guam, after a series of island hops, my tank company finally reaches Guam, dodging a sub at the finish line – and then gets caught in the CV raids and is sunk within sight of shore…. [:@]
So two CLs and two transports on the day, along with the tank unit and a min-sub. The report shows the SEAWOLF sunk, but that may just be FOW, I didn’t see any confirmation.

[Justus2]

On the ground, his Tinian assault comes off at bad odds, and costs him a lot more than me. Pagan continues to hang on.

Air losses on the day were high for him, most from one Avenger flight that came in unescorted.

I’m pulling most of my ships back further west, I don’t know if he is going to press his CVs further west or not but I’m trying to clear out just in case.

I did spot several TFs at Ponape in the south, one of my mini-subs made a one-way run from Truk, but missed. I have a CA nearby, and my CVL group is close enough, I’m routing them both in tomorrow. [;)]

[Justus2]

20 JULY
My Ponape raid comes together, but the results weren’t as good as I hoped. 0% visibility hurt, and his DD did a heroic job of absorbing most of Takao’s ammo. I did get a few hits in on his transports, but would have preferred to focus more on them. There was a second encounter w/2 xAKs, which Takao did sink. [;)]

[Justus2]

The CVL raid started off with a scare, as a small flight of Dauntlesses approached, but luckily missed. My strike didn’t accomplish much, lost 6 planes for one torp in an LCI. [8|] I’m pulling the CVLs and Takao back to Truk to refuel/rearm, I have a couple subs nearby that will try to pick off the damaged ships.

[Justus2]

Meanwhile at Saipan, apparently the DDs hadn’t finished offloading (they only had 100 supply each, they should have disbanded). He sent several waves, I did shoot down some Avengers, but he hit them good, Hamakaze later sank. [:(]

Ground battles were more of the same, he went with bombardment at Tinian, and Pagan is one step closer to falling.

I did notice that he moved one of his small CV groups to the NW of Saipan – not sure if he is going to continue pushing west, but it’s showing that group very low on aircraft. I am moving KB to a position six hexes just NW, hopefully I can catch this group at the edge of range, without being in range of his other groups that have been hanging further south and east. It’s a gamble, but it might pay off, and might keep him from sailing thru the islands again. I’ve enjoyed freedom of maneuver in the Philippine sea, and I’d like to keep it that way! [8D]

[Justus2]

20 JULY

I've been on vacation, so we had a slight delay (and that's alwo why some of the screenshots are strange resolutions, my laptop doesn't handle WITP well!). Lots of sub action, on both sides. Al caught my fast AMC just outside Truk, and put a torp in her, but she should make it to port. Meanwhile, I hit an LST at Tinian, and an LCI at Ponape. Not a bad start to the day!

[Justus2]

The next animation shows my TBs going after the Lexington! While I’m initially excited and hoping for a hit (which I didn’t get), I start to get a sinking feeling… [8|] this is near Truk, why are my CVLs still out in the middle of the ocean? [&:] If I’m hitting one of his fleet CVs, he’s probably getting ready to hit back… [:(]

Al also decided to focus his Liberators on the port at Truk this turn, crippling an SSX and putting a couple bombs on Takao. Then a CV sortie comes in and finishes off my AMC (so much for making port).

[Justus2]

After weeks of raiding the open oceans, the Day of Reckoning arrives over my CVL Strike group. Two big CV sorties sink two of the CVLs, and cripple Chitose (who probably won’t make port).

I rapidly went through the 5 stages of grief after watching the turn, trying to figure out what happened. As I said in yesterday’s update, my plan was to return the CVLs to Truk to refuel. I looked at my save from before I sent the turn. and in spite of setting the auto-disband and other settings, I forgot to cancel the patrol orders… [X(] I blame Cap Mandrake’s staff!

I was frustrated, but this TF has been living on luck for a LONG time. I knew last turn when I went after Ponape I was putting them at risk again, but with the odds against me in this scenario, every time I commit my forces it’s a gamble. I hate to lose the ships, they are worth a lot of VPs, but we’re not playing for VPs. We only have 2 weeks left, if I were playing for VP at this point I would probably try to hide my remaining fleet and hope my islands hold out. I saw some targets at Ponape, and thought I could get a quick strike in. His CVs had all just moved near the Marianas, I wasn't expecting him to pull them back east again so soon.

As for the orders mistake, not sure it would have made much of a difference. His CV strike would have hit me at Truk anyway. I would have had a little more CAP help, but they would still have been crippled with that many aircraft.

[Justus2]

The land battles continue. I see a strange result at Tinian, my troops bombard, and lose 20 squads destroyed! I’m used to taking casualties from counterfire on bombardments, since he has more artillery, but usually it’s just disablements. My Inf Rgt and NavGd units have all of their squads currently disabled, and the constant combat is catching up to them. I have been setting my units to Defend, but he keeps landing fragments (one or two ships per turn, LCIs or LSTs running in) and that switches my defenders to Bombard orders. At least the assault generates more casualties for him.

Pagan is really getting ground down, I expect it to fall any day:
Ground combat at Pagan (110,89)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 4499 troops, 64 guns, 372 vehicles, Assault Value = 191
Defending force 3433 troops, 38 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 4
Allied adjusted assault: 18
Japanese adjusted defense: 41
Allied assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2)
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+)
Attacker: disruption(-)
Japanese ground losses:
204 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 23 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 7 (6 destroyed, 1 disabled)

[Justus2]

Here’s the situation at the end of the turn. I’m sure he will follow up with a major strike at Truk next turn, since he knows I have ships there, and the crippled CHITOSE will have to head there as well. The escorts fare a little better, one DD is crippled, three are OK, but only have enough fuel to return to Truk. [:(] CA Chokai should be able to escape west. I also evacuate what shipping I can from Truk (a couple damaged subs and a DD), and wave off some incoming tranpsorts (they are ordered to disband at Satawan).

Luckily, most of the air groups from the CVLs diverted to Truk, so I reconsolidate a couple fragments and boost the CAP. I fly the DB and TBs (that are flyable) off to Pelileu, CV SHOKAKU has been repairing and can be put into action with the survivors in a few days (low teens sys damage).

Trying to look for a bright side, [8D] at least all his CVs are away from the Marianas for a day or two, so I am going to try to take advantage. KB is headed to Iwo to refuel, but I am moving my Musahsi TF into position to bombard Tinian next turn. The land battle is still hanging in the balance, but if I can disrupt his forces (especially his guns and tanks) I may be able to hold out longer. I am also running a few xAKLs from Guam to Tinian to boost supply.

[Justus2]

21 JULY
Air raid sirens at Truk continue to sound, and the crews of the damaged ships can do nothing but watch the dark shapes falling from the sky… [:(]
Several subs are hit by the Liberators, and the poor DDs that made up the CVL escort group arrive to refuel just in time for his carrier raid. No surprise, the CHITOSE sank during the night, but it appears my two cruisers escaped detection.

[Justus2]

Al rests his troops at Tinian this turn, going with just a bombardment. His CVs are still far to the southeast, near Truk, so I am sending my BB group in tonight to bombard his troops, and hopefully buy time for my tenacious defenders.

Still no sign of an inbound invasion TF. I know he should have a couple of divisions available from reinforcements by now, but he has to get them from PH to the scene of battle, and I don’t know if he has enough amphib shipping for a multi-divisional assault. I think he has two options at this point:

1) Try to land two divisions at Saipan or Guam and start a fresh assault. I think even two divisions would struggle at either of those two- I have good CD guns, high fort levels, and 700+ AV at each. It would take a long struggle to wear down those forts, and he doesn’t have that much time left.
2) Throw one division at Tinian to push that battle over the top. Tinian has been close before, so a bunch of fresh troops could tip the scales. That’s why I want to use the BBs to tilt the odds a bit more in my favor before he reinforces.

Meanwhile, Pagan continues to hang on by a thread, it’s mostly just the mechanics throwing wrenches at his tanks! [:D]

[Chickenboy]

I'd encourage you to look towards the VPs as an arbiter of success in this scenario, Justus2. They are very specifically calculated to represent success or failure in this scenario. You may think that throwing away your ships in a vain effort to keep him off of Saipan or Guam at this stage is warranted, but it will do nothing but detract from your victory or assuage his loss.

The Allies' orders are very specific. They're codified in the VPs for this scenario. Namely, "Take the Marianas-with particular attention to Guam and Saipan. Tinian is an important but secondary objective. The goal is to find a series of supporting bases with which to base our strategic bombers for the assault on Japanese industry."

If the Allied player *doesn't* do what he's ordered to do-he loses. Straight up. He didn't carry out his orders. The orders aren't flexible (as evidenced by the VPs) to focus overwhelmingly on Truk, Pagan or other tertiary goals. He's got to have the brass rings.

You will likely deny him at least two of his three main goals. Do not cushion his defeat by feeding VPs to him in the form of combatant ships. He may be trying to cushion his margin by seeking a CV battle, even if it will not adequately supplant his successful capture of Saipan and / or Guam. You lessen your claim to victory if you engage accordingly.

Your ships have done their jobs very well in keeping him off of his main goals. They've harried and repulsed smaller landings and forced his timetable back. That's all they *can* do in this scenario. You've asked all you can of them. Throwing them at a concentrated, refurbished and rested foe (as I mistakenly did in this scenario) squanders your hard-fought and hard-won victory, IMO.

[Justus2]

Thanks Chickenboy, good advice. The VP comment was more self-rationalization - I was pretty upset over the losses (especially because I forgot to order them back to Truk) and had a long car ride home from vacation to stew on it. So I may have beem trying to assauge my own losses! [;)]

You're right, I need to stay focused on Guam and Saipan, if I can retain Tinian that's a bonus. I know Al was expecting a carrier battle earlier, or to see my BBs out in force, and I've tried to preserve them as a last resort, or to 'hit him where he aint' when I've seen opportunities. That was the CVLs mission too, but I think I got too complacent by trying to run right back to Truk to refuel (even if I had ordered it correctly). I was more cautious earlier, hit once then run for open sea for a turn or two, let his reaction hit empty ocean, then sneak back to a base to refuel.

KB is headed to Iwo to refuel, and my plan is to keep them hidden to the NW, until I spot his invasion convoy. Depending on the situation, I'd love to catch them in the open ocean south of Marcus, but if I can't get a free shot, at this point I will probably just stage the aircraft up to Guam to strike from there while preserving the actual ships. The big BBs will be out of main gun ammo after this bombardment, so they will probably retire to safety. I still have several CA TFs and the two fast BBs that I could use on a night raid against a landing force, but I will have to weigh the cost vs benefits. Like you pointed out, if he can't take the islands anyway, it may not be worth the risk.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Justus2

Thanks Chickenboy, good advice. The VP comment was more self-rationalization - I was pretty upset over the losses (especially because I forgot to order them back to Truk) and had a long car ride home from vacation to stew on it. So I may have beem trying to assauge my own losses! [;)]

You're right, I need to stay focused on Guam and Saipan, if I can retain Tinian that's a bonus. I know Al was expecting a carrier battle earlier, or to see my BBs out in force, and I've tried to preserve them as a last resort, or to 'hit him where he aint' when I've seen opportunities. That was the CVLs mission too, but I think I got too complacent by trying to run right back to Truk to refuel (even if I had ordered it correctly). I was more cautious earlier, hit once then run for open sea for a turn or two, let his reaction hit empty ocean, then sneak back to a base to refuel.

KB is headed to Iwo to refuel, and my plan is to keep them hidden to the NW, until I spot his invasion convoy. Depending on the situation, I'd love to catch them in the open ocean south of Marcus, but if I can't get a free shot, at this point I will probably just stage the aircraft up to Guam to strike from there while preserving the actual ships. The big BBs will be out of main gun ammo after this bombardment, so they will probably retire to safety. I still have several CA TFs and the two fast BBs that I could use on a night raid against a landing force, but I will have to weigh the cost vs benefits. Like you pointed out, if he can't take the islands anyway, it may not be worth the risk.

I think you'll find that both Cap and I hid our IJN carriers at Iwo or in the far NW corner of the map to hide them out until scenario end. With the Allied CVs capable of surprising most "safe" bases away from the Marianas, it's best to keep 'em where he's unlikely to look for 'em whilest trying to scrounge up some VPs.

[Justus2]

22 JULY
Quick update, quiet turn. No air flights, just the ground assaults. Forts dropped at Tinian, but I inflicted heavier casualties, Pagan is fighting to the bitter end, looks like the AvSpt engineers are on the front lines now. [8|]
Still no sign of his invasion fleet, and his CVs are out of sight, probably refueling/rearming for the final assault. I am running supplies in where I can.