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[Jagdtiger14]

The Soviets are off guard at the moment...they will have a tough time getting their forces together. I don't think they will be able to cover the Dnieper with any strength. They might make some heroic factory city stands here or there with cheap units (MIL and GAR), but for the most part I expect them to run and preserve their forces. Murmansk and Archangel are either gone or cut off at the least. Moscow could theoretically have some sort of defense. Caucasus mountains can be defended. The border with Japan will should be fairly open (but probably not...see below). If the pact can be broken, the Japs in theory can get Vlad and the resources/territory from Chita to the Pacific.

Putting a bunch of Italian units vs the French in the Alps worked, and I suspect (because Warspite is very resistant in our convos to seeing the light on that one) if the Japs put some of their re-inforcements into Manchuria the Soviets might keep too much there and make the German job much easier. I would build a bunch of land units with Japan...that alone should freak them out.

Don't forget the Persian oil...I suspect Persia will be empty at some point. The Japs should get their fleet ready for that.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Axis won initiative. AlkenK, should we go first?

In Poland all German units are next to enemy, I can't break the pact untill next impulse (DoW will be done in M/A or M/J). If we start, I take Warsaw on first impulse and break the pact on second impulse.

In France and Belgium first impulse would help us destroy CW units before they run away.

If we have both first and last impulse, initiative will be 0 and both can reroll next time.

For Germany it is not mandatory to go first but of course it would make things easier.

[Jagdtiger14]

I think you go kill some CW units before they get away.

[Jagdtiger14]

Unbelievable Vichy!!! Japanese getting at Madagascar would be awesome! It looks like Vichy will have better production than normal, and it would be nice to get at some of that Vichy fleet when the time is right.

[AllenK]

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

Axis won initiative. AlkenK, should we go first?

In Poland all German units are next to enemy, I can't break the pact untill next impulse (DoW will be done in M/A or M/J). If we start, I take Warsaw on first impulse and break the pact on second impulse.

In France and Belgium first impulse would help us destroy CW units before they run away.

If we have both first and last impulse, initiative will be 0 and both can reroll next time.

For Germany it is not mandatory to go first but of course it would make things easier.

Just to throw an idea onto the table. An ambitious plan.

Let Allies go first, to give us the initiative bonus for M/A 40.

See if CW tries to send the Trans under fleet and air protection into North Sea and load the two CW units in Antwerp. Next impulse, sortie everything into the North Sea and hope for favourable search results to sink Trans and kill CW units. Probably too ambitious as it relies on a good search roll but thoughts?

[Jagdtiger14]

Not a bad idea. Point of info: Is the entire German fleet in Kiel? Assuming everything makes the 4 box. Also assuming the weather is terrible (storm/blizzard) since J/F is the worst weather turn. Also assuming no enemy cp's in North Sea. What is your percentage of finding something? You will also need enough surprise points to pick a target (3 per target).

Weigh that against:

Storm/Blizzard attack vs Antwerp.

The negative vs ground assault vs Antwerp is that if everything gets flipped it will be difficult to rail useful units to Poland on what normally is the shortest turn of the game.

The positive for naval action is that since you are not taking Gibraltar/Med strategy...then your fleet is more expendable.

I might be mistaken, but a 4+ mover TRS (Queens) can move into Antwerp and then back home without staying in the North Sea? Do the Germans have anything in the North Sea to intercept?...which might be close to impossible anyway with the expected terrible weather.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

German fleet is mostly disorganized or in Baltic Sea. There is no Axis units in North Sea.

In Antwerp CW has MOT and MIL. They can only save MIL using the Queens (if it is allowed to move like JT14 said).

Let Allies go first, even if MIL is saved there is MOT near Paris and MOT in Antwerp/North Sea.

The only thing I'm worried is can USSR put some units to German border and prevent German breaking the pact? But I think we can let Allies start to keep advantage in initiative.

[Jagdtiger14]

The thing is, can you chase after and catch the CW units that will run from you in France?...are they OOS? Do the CW have a regular (not Queens) 4 moving TRS available?

Concerning the USSR...they probably could delay you breaking the pact by doing that, but that would be playing into your hands since you will VERY soon be able to break it anyway...and those Soviet units will be destroyed there instead of near Moscow or Caucasus. If I were playing the USSR, I would NOT do that!

[AllenK]

I don't think the move into, load and back out of port function is enabled yet.

For ships in 4-box, 30% to find in Storm, 40% if CP's present. I don't think they'll have withdrawn the CP in the North Sea to keep the units in Antwerp in supply. Overall though it relies pretty much on close to a 1:10 split going the Axis way to give the surprise points to select targets.

I think artillery could still ground strike in the storm, which if it works (20% chance for each) would give disorganised and OOS units. Defence of 4 as one is an elite.

Other option would be to have a go on the land route this impulse, then the naval route in impulse 3 if necessary.

[AllenK]

I'm happy to go second as it will also force CW to spread the escorts out more thinly to cover the convoys as he won't know where the Italian subs will go.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

OK, you can tell Allies that they can go first.

[Centuur]

Good decision to let the Allies go first. There is no rush and it's important to keep the Axis initiative as high as possible.

Good CW play at this stage, demands that they don't risk their TRS. That automatically means that they should only use the Queens to evacuate units out of Antwerp (and the feature is coded and operational). However: why not stay in that port? The use of the Home Fleet BB's for shore bombardment means that they are in a good defensive position. A German attack on Antwerp during winter is probably going to result in German losses. That's what the CW boots on the floor are for anyway. Throw those soldiers in the Axis path and see if you can delay things, would be my solution for this problem. Sure, it means the loss of build points, but there doesn't seem a lot the Axis are doing against the CW at this stage anyway. It is a question of what losses you can and what losses you can't have.
The loss of the MOT and the MIL in Antwerp is a nuisance, but the loss of TRS is a far greater problem. I wouldn't fall into that trap.

I would gladly exchange CW BB's for German ones on a 1.5 - 1 base as the CW, but I would not allow any Axis nation a shot at my precious TRS at this stage.

Let's see if your opponents are of the same opinion.

[AllenK]

Thanks Centuur.

Handy to know the port pick up function is now working.

[Jagdtiger14]

What Centuur writes is true.

Assuming they do as Centuur argues: you will have to get the CW out of there at some point anyway regardless...and you will have to keep units around there to keep them from roaming around. So when do you destroy them?...when the weather gets better (hopefully) in M/A'40? Do you keep the necessary strength to defeat them there as well? Air and/or arty for GS? All of this is wasting your time, and time is the most valuable asset in WiF. I would consider it a CW victory if by having them there it keeps valuable units tied up in Belgium while they could be fighting the Soviets.

You have the units to deal with them there now.

I would be very active and risky with the German fleet now (pre-Barb)...trying to put CW units in France/Belgium OOS, etc...

[peskpesk]

I am puzzled by the Axis builds.

GE: No Armor
JP: No CV
IT: No Nav

There have been talks about a Barbarossa. GE neesds Armor. IT needs Nav+ FTR to keep CW at bay. JP will be cruhed without navy to fend of the US.

[AllenK]

ORIGINAL: peskpesk

I am puzzled by the Axis builds.

GE: No Armor
JP: No CVtend
IT: No Nav

There have been talks about a Barbarossa. GE needs Armor. IT needs Nav+ FTR to keep CW at bay. JP will be cruhed without navy to fend of the US.

In Japan and Italy's case the decision was to build the Synth Oils since Navs and CV's don't tend to do that well without it. Higher than anticipated land losses for Japan has meant some switching from what was planned to replace them.

Edit: Italy did build a pilot to put in the Nav it built in the first turn.

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Germany needs tanks, but they also need units to replace losses. They will build ARM, but not just this impulse.

[Klydon]

A side benefit of no armor builds from the Germans will be that it may keep the Allies guessing a bit as to the next strategic direction the Germans may take. It is slim, but who knows. [:D]

[Mayhemizer_slith]

I keep my options open. I can still go to Spain if it looks like Germany can't break the pact.

[Centuur]

ORIGINAL: Mayhemizer

I keep my options open. I can still go to Spain if it looks like Germany can't break the pact.

True. And for a Barbarossa 1940 you are better of by building MTN, MIL, GAR first if you are not convinced you can break the pact, before building ARM. However, you can't simply wait to make this decision. You have to choose next impulse, since going for Barbarossa needs the transfer of the main part of the German army in France to the USSR.

Chances are that Germany can break the pact this turn, but are not able to break it if the Soviet Union gets the air units together with two ARM railed back out of Persia into Eastern Poland next turn...