OT: Corona virus

[Scott_USN]

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

I got a business trip to Europe cancelled [:@] [:@]

I think this is overblown by panic-mongers

Yeah common sense seems to have left the subject for the media.

[Canoerebel]

An informed, reliable acquaintance gave me a lot more information yesterday.

I understood him to say that the graph of the outbreak in China (as shown below, updated today) is encouraging if (big IF) the diagnostics and reporting from China are accurate. It shows a non-exponential growth rate, suggesting the outbreak has leveled out. However, he has serious misgivings about the reliability of the Chinese data.

In the rest of the world, he thinks the outbreak may be in the early stages of the exponential growth cycle; that it has "escaped" containment and will spread rapidly.

There are also indications that actual mortality might be somewhere around 0.2%, less than one-tenth the figure we're seeing reported to this point. At 0.2% it would be similar to a nasty flu.

The Johns Hopkins charts continue to show modest (to me: linear) growth. Perhaps, however, we are in that two week incubation period, where the reports from all areas will begin exponential growth soon.

Here's hoping that Chinese diagnostics and reporting are "good"!

[BBfanboy]

That 2 week incubation period is itself just a guess. With a virus that can (reportedly) survive on a metal railing for 21 days, it will take a lot longer for us to know when the community is clear of the problem. But if everyone touching contaminated railings washes their hands before touching their face or food, the virus on the railing is defeated.

That reminds me of a news clip on BBC this morning that showed Italian efforts at containment. Some men in overalls with masks and rubber gloves and pails in one hand and a cloth in the other got on a commuter train after the passengers got off. They proceeded to quickly wipe down the handhold surfaces like poles and the loop handgrips at the top side of the aisle seats. Trouble is, they quickly wiped the outside of the loops but did not do much with the inside of the loop, where the fingers wrap around ...

[Footslogger]

Some have been talking about the under reporting "numbers."

This posting was the best I could find about this subject.

Remember take everything with a grain of salt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7v0L7GFxNKw

[rustysi]

Wine has anti-viral, anti-bacterial, and anti-fungal properties.

I knew I increased my home stock for a reason.[:D]

[rustysi]

Remember take everything with a grain of salt.

But my doctor told me to cut my salt intake.[:'(]

[Scott_USN]

Seems to be waning a bit especially in China, assuming their numbers are correct a already stated.

[RangerJoe]

Once you isolate people that have it, they are unlikely to spread it.

[spence]

The government really knows how to isolate people in China too.

[JohnDillworth]

The statistics are not giving a good picture of what may be going on. So the U.S. does not look so bad with 100 cases. The problem is is that only 500 people in the U.S. have been tested! 500! So, 20% of all people tested have test positive. I suspect there is a lot more than 100 cases. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... us/607348/

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The statistics are not giving a good picture of what may be going on. So the U.S. does not look so bad with 100 cases. The problem is is that only 500 people in the U.S. have been tested! 500! So, 20% of all people tested have test positive. I suspect there is a lot more than 100 cases. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... us/607348/

But who needs to be tested? As far as I know, I've had no contact with anyone who has or had it. I have not traveled. That is the problem, it takes a lot of money to test and without a good reason to do so it will not be done.

[MakeeLearn]

Coronavirus closures reveal vast scale of China’s secretive wildlife farm industry

https://focusingonwildlife.com/news/cor ... title_1120


"Nearly 20,000 wildlife farms raising species including peacocks, civet cats, porcupines, ostriches, wild geese and boar have been shut down across China in the wake of the coronavirus, in a move that has exposed the hitherto unknown size of the industry."

Peacock breeders use plastic bags to wrap up the birds in transit to stop their feathers falling off.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The statistics are not giving a good picture of what may be going on. So the U.S. does not look so bad with 100 cases. The problem is is that only 500 people in the U.S. have been tested! 500! So, 20% of all people tested have test positive. I suspect there is a lot more than 100 cases. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... us/607348/

But who needs to be tested? As far as I know, I've had no contact with anyone who has or had it. I have not traveled. That is the problem, it takes a lot of money to test and without a good reason to do so it will not be done.

As I mentioned a couple of pages back; the Washington outbreak tells you that the virus is already in the general population. We also know that many (but % not yet quantified) people will contract it and be asymptomatic (no symptoms). This is good for that person, bad for the rest of us as it means carriers with no outward appearance of being so. This means all the travel screening is already pretty much moot and for show.

Anyway, by the end of March we will know how virulent this one is. Until then, all you can do is watch your personal hygiene more than usual and if you get flu like symptoms be very conservative in your treatment; meaning SEE your DOCTOR first, then use the normal OTC meds.

And yes, every hospital ED, first responder agency, and most GP offices are getting spooled up. Better safe than sorry on this one …

I should close with this: so much is still unknown about this little critter. It may not like dry, may not like cold, may … we don't know. So the outbreak could be severely constrained by climate/weather/whatever. But with the virus in the general population now it really means, relax. Unless you move into your nuke bunker you either already have or will in the next week come into contact with it. Just the way these things work. And just like the flu, coming into contact in no way guarantees you get it. Again, we don't know the contagion mechanism or % yet so … relax and spin a few more turns.

[RangerJoe]

Relax with some antiviral medication . . .

[JohnDillworth]

But who needs to be tested? As far as I know, I've had no contact with anyone who has or had it. I have not traveled. That is the problem, it takes a lot of money to test and without a good reason to do so it will not be done.

Well, we have a guy in NYC who has it. Traveled to Israel, Florida, went to Temple 3 times, traveled by commuter rail to mid-town Manhattan via Grand Central Terminal a few times. They just quarantined hundreds of people. Who needs to be tested? His wife, his co-workers, anyone he traveled on a plane with, a train with, he went to Temple with? Lots of those people need to be tested. And when some come back positive, and they likely will, their contacts may need to be tested. 500 tests in the whole country seems to me we are either slow to react, way behind, ignorant, unprepared or whistling in the wind....or all of the above.

[Sardaukar]

I was detained for 3 days for suspected COV-19...our legistlation is bit rude when it comes to that [:D]

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

But who needs to be tested? As far as I know, I've had no contact with anyone who has or had it. I have not traveled. That is the problem, it takes a lot of money to test and without a good reason to do so it will not be done.

Well, we have a guy in NYC who has it. Traveled to Israel, Florida, went to Temple 3 times, traveled by commuter rail to mid-town Manhattan via Grand Central Terminal a few times. They just quarantined hundreds of people. Who needs to be tested? His wife, his co-workers, anyone he traveled on a plane with, a train with, he went to Temple with? Lots of those people need to be tested. And when some come back positive, and they likely will, their contacts may need to be tested. 500 tests in the whole country seems to me we are either slow to react, way behind, ignorant, unprepared or whistling in the wind....or all of the above.

No, I think we are simply past that stage. When a virus is in the general population, testing is kinda moot except for people are really ill to determine what (which virus/secondary infection) they have.

[JohnDillworth]

So without testing how do we determine who to quarantine or are we past that stage too? Not testing seems to be choosing ignorance. I’d prefer not to stick my head in the sand and hope for the best. Besides, Pence said that every American can be tested. One wonders when.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The statistics are not giving a good picture of what may be going on. So the U.S. does not look so bad with 100 cases. The problem is is that only 500 people in the U.S. have been tested! 500! So, 20% of all people tested have test positive. I suspect there is a lot more than 100 cases. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... us/607348/

But who needs to be tested? As far as I know, I've had no contact with anyone who has or had it. I have not traveled. That is the problem, it takes a lot of money to test and without a good reason to do so it will not be done.

One big difference between the US and Europe (and many other places in the world) is the profit oriented healthcare industry in the States.

If containment is improved by testing and self-or-imposed quarantines of known cases, then a profit oriented medical system ends up being very ineffective. It will end up costing more in the long run of course not to splash out on the early stage efforts to test and contain (through increased hospital stays, more missed work time and general panic if numbers go way up, etc).

The large segment of the populace who don't have health insurance will also end up spreading the disease through their reluctance or inability to go in to a doctor and incur fees to be tested. It will also likely hit the poor and uninsured harder due to a higher prevalence of pre-existing conditions.

[Kursk1943]

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

I was detained for 3 days for suspected COV-19...our legistlation is bit rude when it comes to that [:D]

Which one? Finland or THe Holy Land?