Insanity. Obscenity. Indecency. ITAKLinus (A) vs DesertWolf101 (J)

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

To my surprise, KB is striking industrial targets in Australia. He's made some VPs out of RESOURCES. The attacks on RESOURCES puzzle me: if he'd strike industry, I'd be quite relieved since it would lower the likelihood of he aiming to an Australian campaign.

Low hanging VP's for the IJ. Often undefended, and with limited flak and fighters in Oz this early, not very much that you can do with it at all.

The entire VP farming with KB right now doesn't convince me completely. It's almost January and KB is far away from the key area of operations (DEI), where instead I have over 300 embarked a/c.

We'll see...

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

To my surprise, KB is striking industrial targets in Australia. He's made some VPs out of RESOURCES. The attacks on RESOURCES puzzle me: if he'd strike industry, I'd be quite relieved since it would lower the likelihood of he aiming to an Australian campaign.

Low hanging VP's for the IJ. Often undefended, and with limited flak and fighters in Oz this early, not very much that you can do with it at all.

The entire VP farming with KB right now doesn't convince me completely. It's almost January and KB is far away from the key area of operations (DEI), where instead I have over 300 embarked a/c.

We'll see...

Every VP garnered now works out as 4 (?) you will need to make back up in 1943 onwards for an auto-victory. Unlike base VP's (which will change the balance as the war progresses) strategic VP's are permanent, much like ship, aircraft or troop losses.

January is still very early doors. The amphib bonus runs until March, and even then a well prepared IJ player can carry out some limited offensive operations.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: mind_messing



Low hanging VP's for the IJ. Often undefended, and with limited flak and fighters in Oz this early, not very much that you can do with it at all.

The entire VP farming with KB right now doesn't convince me completely. It's almost January and KB is far away from the key area of operations (DEI), where instead I have over 300 embarked a/c.

We'll see...

Every VP garnered now works out as 4 (?) you will need to make back up in 1943 onwards for an auto-victory. Unlike base VP's (which will change the balance as the war progresses) strategic VP's are permanent, much like ship, aircraft or troop losses.

January is still very early doors. The amphib bonus runs until March, and even then a well prepared IJ player can carry out some limited offensive operations.

There is an opportunity cost. I do believe that with KB in the DEI he can quickly overrun Singapore and immediately land in Java. At the same time, carry out major operations elsewhere.
I think there is a hidden opportunity cost between making VPs now in Australia and accelerating operations around the map: are we sure he makes more points in this way than, f.ex., supporting an early invasion of India or Australia with all the associated VPs gathered through destruction of devices/aircraft/etcetc? Personally, I'm not really convinced of these strikes.
Also, consider that we don't have any HR regarding strategic night bombing (meaning he can do it with whatever moonlight) and various Australian bases are quite exposed for long.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus





The entire VP farming with KB right now doesn't convince me completely. It's almost January and KB is far away from the key area of operations (DEI), where instead I have over 300 embarked a/c.

We'll see...

Every VP garnered now works out as 4 (?) you will need to make back up in 1943 onwards for an auto-victory. Unlike base VP's (which will change the balance as the war progresses) strategic VP's are permanent, much like ship, aircraft or troop losses.

January is still very early doors. The amphib bonus runs until March, and even then a well prepared IJ player can carry out some limited offensive operations.

There is an opportunity cost. I do believe that with KB in the DEI he can quickly overrun Singapore and immediately land in Java. At the same time, carry out major operations elsewhere.
I think there is a hidden opportunity cost between making VPs now in Australia and accelerating operations around the map: are we sure he makes more points in this way than, f.ex., supporting an early invasion of India or Australia with all the associated VPs gathered through destruction of devices/aircraft/etcetc? Personally, I'm not really convinced of these strikes.
Also, consider that we don't have any HR regarding strategic night bombing (meaning he can do it with whatever moonlight) and various Australian bases are quite exposed for long.

Ships, troops, planes can all be relocated. You can't lose VP's if you choose to not engage the IJ.

Captured bases can be recaptured.

Industry can't be moved.

These types of strikes are designed to give a permanent boost the IJ VP count while applying pressure on the Allies to reinforce Australia, while at the same time being perfectly placed to interdict supply lines into Oz from the West Coast. It requires significantly less investment that a continental invasion of India or Australia (and the subsequent reinforcements that are triggered for the Allies if such a venture is made).

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Ships, troops, planes can all be relocated. You can't lose VP's if you choose to not engage the IJ.

Captured bases can be recaptured.

Industry can't be moved.

These types of strikes are designed to give a permanent boost the IJ VP count while applying pressure on the Allies to reinforce Australia, while at the same time being perfectly placed to interdict supply lines into Oz from the West Coast. It requires significantly less investment that a continental invasion of India or Australia (and the subsequent reinforcements that are triggered for the Allies if such a venture is made).

This is all valid. It's the strategic VP's plus the loss of some of the Australian aircraft production that cannot be reversed.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]31 DECEMBER 1941
TURN 25[/center]


I.NOPAC

Nothing new. First convoys arrive safely in Anchorage. Only one enemy LCU in Cold Bay.


II.CENPAC

A convoy with 47,000ton of SUPPLIES is reaching PH, from there the ships will be readdressed to their final destinations in the SOPAC.

Almost completed the unloading of the marine defense battalion in Johnston Island. Same goes for Christmas Island and Palmyra.

Pago Pago has a convoy with an infantry regiment sailing happily in its direction. I hope they'll make it.


III.SOPAC

Nothing new. KB keeps striking Australian industry.

A singole 60kg bomb lands on an Australian CL in Solomon Sea.

In two days, hopefully, some tanks will be unloaded in Suva. I am quite happy of the development there: AA, ART and now tanks.


PM is quite empty but I cannot really find a way to ship stuff there in face of strong opposition from Rabaul, which reaches AF level 6 today. I'm quite impressed by the amount of ENG he has brought in Rabaul right now. It's somewhat inconsistent with my perception of him striking deep SOUTH in NZ direction.
We'll see.
Also the lack of landings in Noumea while the KB is around are very much surprising me.

I might have mis-analysed the situation. I told Omar I expect a Perth+NZ pincer movement: it's true and it's part of some kind of psychowarfare I've embarked myself some time ago.



IV.DEI

Let's avoid the talk over the elephant in the room and let's start with good news.

My fighters go back to Singapore and smash enemy's bombers. 47 the Japanese losses for 1 ops on our side.
The action has in truth a more relevant target than shooting down some sallies: Singapore's fortifications are now back to level 2 in a single turn and I'm quite satistifed by this result.
On top of that, our defenders are doing quite well, with 740AV reached this turn after the all time low of 650AV after the Japanese river crossing.
Not that they will survive to any enemy's assault, but I hope to create some more troubles to the IJA.


The elephant in the room is the presence of many TFs with Java as probable destination.
A sub attack WEST of Singkawang has showed xAKs present in the convoys and therefore I believe it's not a feint.

My approach is fairly simple: I won't engage them right now and rather look for openings in the aftermath of their landings.


In line of principle, I have available the usual forces:
- 2xBB/BC
- 12xCA
- 6xCL
- 30xDD
It's a respectable force even if he probably has 6xBBs covering his landings. I'm not that sure on the ammo level of those BBs. It looks improbable they have replenished but it's likely that their engagement with the unlucky Marblehead's TF has left them enough to fight their way forward.

An interesting aspect of the current "crisis" is the fact that when he landed in Palembang I thought he was feinting to make a move in Timor area. Now, I am fearing it's a real feint.
The assault on Java is not consistent with the disposition of his troops. Nor it makes sense the fact that probably his BBs are low on ammo. And SigInt is telling me stuff has arrived today at Babeldaob.
On top of that, he wouldn't probably be able to establish a sufficiently strong bridgehead and defend it from my naval bombardments, should he land.
He hasn't shut down AFs in Java a part from a single Betty raid last turn on Batavia.

I don't know yet his operational habits and convinction, so I am not sure about his behaviours when I see his moves. I haven't a grip on his psychology yet, which in the current moves in the DEI doesn't help me at all. Also, I don't know how he sees me as a player and so how he's interpreting my posture. It might very well be that he has seen my Palembang blunder and now thinks he can easily draw me in a pitched battle at his conditions.

In a sentence: it looks quite strange.


At the bottom you find the situation.


In the meanwhile, I've landed a good hit on Miri's OIL with B17s based in Soerabaja. The Nate CAP could do little to stop my 4Es.

A lot of naval traffic in Babeldaob but no signs of allied advances. I am quite confident he wants to do a simultaneous move on Java and Timor, probably trying to exploit the absence of my CVs (back some hundred KMs to refit their airgroups and wait for the Saratoga coming in 8 days from Cape Town).

I decided to pull back my heavy units, putting them in a position in which they can go both to SOUTH-EAST (Timor/Darwin) and NORT-WEST (landing around Batavia).

In another world, my Philippino airforce gets badly damaged (but not destroyed...) trying to sink xAPs and xAKs near Atimonan. They were covered by lousy Nates, which proved nonetheless sufficient to stop most of my strafing runs.


V.CBI

A big mess in China as usual. He has a division in Ankang accordingly to my SigInt but not accordingly to my recon and bombing. Also, the SigInt pointed at coordinates rather than the location, which puzzles me further. Don't know if that's true then...

In any case, I've been unable to push back the poor Kyuko Naval Guards defending mountain passes. I'm inflicting 10 squads lost/disabled per-turn and receiving the same amount of casualties in return, so I believe they won't last long.

In Changsha sector, everything looks quite calm and I've taken the occasion to pull back some units for rest in Changsha proper.

Chinese 5th Corps is completely in Calcutta taking a good amount of replacements. That's a very positive news for Indian inhabitants.
I've Madras and Calcutta as main gathering points for my LCUs. Most of them are "healing" their disablements at a nice rate.

A British CV arrives in 3-4 days and it will help in establishing a solid defense in the area.

Finally, I've exhausted Cape Town SUPPLIES and a good chunk of its FUEL. In a dozen days the first atlantic convoy will be arrived and disbanded, so I'm not concerned at all.

Many shipments are being done toward Australia, which remains a sensitive point in my global positioning. With the approx. 240,000ton of SUPPLIES from Cape Town I've just sent, it should improve the situation there for the poor fellas in the sector.




The awful situation near Java:

[RangerJoe]

I would use CS convoys for shipping supplies from the East Coast to Cape Town. You will need a large stockpile there for later use if not sooner.

[ITAKLinus]

After one month, I'm finally back.

Got an awful time at work, but we're back on track. We did 3 turns today (first day of my 'official' return). [:D][:D][:D]

Soon, the updates

[ITAKLinus]

[color=#0066000][center]8 JANUARY 1942
TURN 33[/center][/color]

I. NOPAC

Everything is quiet in the area since the initial invasions carried out by Omar. I don't plan any counter-attack in the short term, mostly due to the complete absence of assets to do so.


II. CENPAC

After the capture of Wake-Midway on 7th Dec and the expansion in Canton Island, there have been no signs of enemy activity.

Johnston Island, Palmyra and Christmas Island are being reinforced and supplied. It's not a big deal, but I hope to have a decent amount of troops in each so that I can make any landing attempt costly. Frankly, it doesn't look like he's gonna push there.

Since Canton Island, the easternmost base controlled by the Japanese in the area is surrounded by allied bases (Ellice Islands; Baker Island; etc), I might attempt a blitz over there soon.


Pago Pago is being reinforced as well and Suva has roughlt 210AV behind forts lvl3. Soon, one US Army regiment will be unloaded there to boost the defences a little bit.

Noumea is basically naked but should receive enough troops in the next couple of weeks. The forces there will amount to roughly 300AV.

Omar hasn't gone south of Shortlands for the time being: I suspect he's preparing to strike further south in the New Caledonia area without bothering too much with the various Tulagi/Guadalcanal/Luganville.

SigInt doesn't help too much, but there is heavy traffic detected at Truk.

Japanese forces have landed on th 6th of January in all the bases surrounding Port Moresby using FastTransportTFs of DDs. A group of Banshees has been placed in PM and they sink an enemy DD, something close to a miracle if we consider the average exp in NavB of 18. Not that bad after all.

Kido Butai has done its awful bombings on Sydney and now sailed north, in all likelihood to cover the landings in PNG area. I have lost track of it in the last turn, mostly due to the fact that I have evacuated all the planes from PM fearing naval bombardaments (which didn't happen).


Australia proper is starting to receive the first shipments of fuel and supplies. I should be able to bring 500k fuel and 500k supplies within the end of January, with more to come later. It's not a bad result, I dare to say.


IV. DEI

After the fall of Palembang and my mistake in the second turn of strikes over his forces there, everything is more quiet. Singapore fell some time ago and there was no real possibility of making it last longer. My forces in Java are somehow a deterrent to bold Japanese actions, I hope.

In the last couple of turns I've ambushed a group of Betty on Balikpapan (8-12 went down) but I got slaughtered on Soerabaja, where I tried to put a timid CAP against A6M2s from Palembang (14 hexes distance... I hoped for some better result). I lost 16 fighters to no apparent Japanese loss. Wonderful, eh?

On the positive side, I currently have 3 US CVs and 1 UK CV (plus the awful Hermes) in the Indian Ocean and their airgroups have been all replensihed of planes and "good" pilots. It's not that much, but still a decent force of around 320 embarked a/c covered by a plethora of surface forces.


Manila is being invested right now. There are 1250 scared Allied AVs in the city, currently facing around 1000 Japanese AVs. I think Omar will bring further reinforcements and massacre my poor fellas over there. Can't do much, sadly. In any case, the few remaining planes in the area are somehow making good ambushes every now and then, downing 5 enemy a/c in the last couple of turns. Nothing too special, but already something for those P-26s.


V. CBI

Rangoon has been reached by roughly 620 Japanese AV. I can muster around 550AV of inexperienced and poorly armed troops. I won't bet on their survival.

Calcutta has around 1,200AV and Madras a very good amount as well. Colombo is fairly empty (I count to block any move there with US CVs). The first few groups of Hurricane are reaching now the gathering area in Calcutta. They are still the -IIa, which is much inferior to my beloved -IIc model, but at least it's something.
An insane amount of USAAF groups will start arriving soon.

China is messed up as usual.

I reconquered Ankang and I am trying to even hold it. There are many IJA units roaming everywhere and I cannot really tell whether I'll be able to contain them on the crucial Ankang Road. Sligthly to the east, Sian is being by-passed by many units moving further north in Kungchan-Tienshui-Lanchow direction. I am letting Omar pass and strike to his flanks once he's committed a little bit more in the northern area.
The situation is very fluid and extremely concerning. I don't know what I'll be able to do. I just hope for the best.

In all this, I've been able to keep the vital Shangai-Peking-Hankow railway cut for most of the turns since the beginning of the match. I deem this a very relevant success.

IJAAF is not that active, but my Flying Tigers have done a very decent job so far: 64-24 K/D ratio including my ops/written offs (12 in A2A).

Changsha sector seems quiet. Apparently, also, Omar has stopped his very concerning offensive from Canton area, which is a relief.

Miracously, I've also blocked his modest offensive in Wenchow, which is still firmly in my hands.

Finally, I have been able to bring the first AT unit from India to China. 36x2pdr from Australia, which should help a little bit in stopping IJA tanks. I forgot to change the target and they're still prepared for... Broken Hill [:D]


VI. OTHER

As mentioned above, I'm quite satisfied by the flow of fuel/supplies to Australia. Cape Town has been emptied of fuel, but in two turns a convoy disbands and it will net me 18,000ton: enough for some time.

I still have no idea on Omar's intentions and I currently keep my initial idea of an offensive in Australia AND/OR New Zealand. I don't think I can do much more than reinforcing at least the first and praying for the latter. In general, Allied situation is still desperate basically everywhere and the next couple of months will be crucial in setting the course of the war for the next year or so.

My priority is to slow him down and, possibly, to make him react to some minor actions here and there. I don't think I can grab the initiative anywhere, but I'm confident I can somehow survive until the end of amphibious bonus, which is the deadline I look forward to.
My cards will start revealing after that time.

[BBfanboy]

Hermes could be used for ASW and NavS coverage for convoys from CT to Perth or Adelaide. Good for torpedoing raiders along the WC of Australia. Forces him to bring in a CVE or CVL if he wants to interdict there.

Forget using your Philippine fighters to fight his Zeros. Put them on Naval Strike at 100 or 1000 feet if they have bombs. If they get his merchantmen burning they often will sink. Loss of supply will also hurt his ability to roll over your troops.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]09 JANUARY 1942
TURN 34[/center]

I. NOPAC

I started some recon over Cold Bay (IIRC) S-W of Kodiak. It's the easternmost Japanese base in the area and I might be able to retake it soon.


II. CENPAC

Nothing special or new. The dot W of Midway automatically switches side and I'm still reinforcing various bases in the area.

Soon, a good chunk of APDs will arrive from the West Coast and start ferrying some troops around quicker.


III. SOPAC

KB reappears on the radars NORTH of Rabaul. It's split in two, with what seems a CV separated from the bulk of the others. I think he'll use this CV to cover his landing in PM; 65th Brigade is apparently being shipped to Truk and I suspect they are going to land in PM soon. The only plausible alternative is Noumea, but I think he'd be a little bit too light.

I won't contest too much the move.


Further SOUTH, I've established a decent defense of both Suva and Noumea. Next step would ideally be Luganville, but it's not a priority.

I need more ENG, also.


IV. DEI

Omar bombs Soerabaja and sinks a couple of AMcs. More importantly, he puts many 250KG bombs on my 4 CLs in the harbor. They don't risk to sink and have only superficial damages.

In the meanwhile, however, I manage to evacuate a large convoy plenty of useful planes and unit fragments from the former Singapore's defenders. I'll ship those guys to Australia, where they'll have plenty of time, support and supplies to recuperate their strength.

Also, in Java I've somehow finished the FUEL. Sadly, I strongly doubt I will be able to evacuate any more SUPPLIES.

In Luzon I try a LowN bombing with my fighters but I lose 2 P-26s to Nates.


V. CBI

Burma apparently stable. Omar hasn't tried to assault Rangoon yet, probably understanding I have enough troops to resist (I suppose?).

In China I mess up a surprise attack on HK harbour with B-17 from Chungking. CAP and balloons kill two of them and damage others. Not a good result.

Near Sian I manage to intercept an enemy raid with a Flying Tigers' LRCAP and I destroy various Nates. Only one Sally is downed. No losses on my side but many fighters damaged and 1 pilot WIA.

I'm quite concerned by the situation in China, but there isn't much I can do right now. Sadly, my troops interrupting the vital Shangai-Peking-Hankow railway will be wiped out in less than a week and, at that point, Omar will gain even more mobility.

Finally, I strongly doubt I can hold the recaptured Ankang. Seems like he wants to go off-road SOUTH of it and move on Chungking's plateau. The move appears bizarre to me, but it's what I can infer from his troops movements. Sian front is stable, with IJA units by-passing it and moving further NORTH.

Changsha is not (yet) invested by IJA but I have no illusions about it.

IJAAF very moderate in its actions.

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Hermes could be used for ASW and NavS coverage for convoys from CT to Perth or Adelaide. Good for torpedoing raiders along the WC of Australia. Forces him to bring in a CVE or CVL if he wants to interdict there.

Forget using your Philippine fighters to fight his Zeros. Put them on Naval Strike at 100 or 1000 feet if they have bombs. If they get his merchantmen burning they often will sink. Loss of supply will also hurt his ability to roll over your troops.

He smashed my CAP on Soerabaja from Palembang. He sent two sweeps in two days and I hoped to catch his Zeroes tired and at maximum distance on the third. They slaugthered my fighters instead.


In Luzon I am facing mostly Nates and I tend to alternate periods of LowN and rest. Currently, however, I'm setting a leaking CAP from Clark Field to Manila in order to intercept his boming runs. He has many fighters in the area, but they're mostly Nates (there were a couple of dozens A6M2-Zeroes but he moved them to China).

My successes with LowN are basically zero, but my leaking CAPs make him bleed a little bit. Well, as much as P-26s can make an enemy bleed [:D][:D]

What's more important is that it seems like he doesn't have enough troops to capture the whole real estate. In Manila I have 1,300AV vs 1,000AV. Supposedly, he has two more divisions coming, while I have 400 more AVs arriving as well. If he has one incoming division only, I should be able to hold. With two, everyone will retreat to Clark Field after we made him bleed a little bit.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]10-13 JANUARY 1942
TURN 35-38[/center]


I. NOPAC

An xAKL is sunk by a Japanese sub off Victoria.


II. CENPAC

I somehow manage to finally reinforce Johnston Island, Palmyra and Christmas Island. I still obviously fear for them, but they should be relatively well defended right now.

Nothing major happening around.


III. SOPAC

Omar has detached the Shokaku (and probably a CVL) from KB and is sailing around New Caledonia. There are two TFs approaching from further NORTH. I think he's using another FastTransportTF to land a SNLF in Noumea. I have 50 frightened AVs in Noumea itself. Many reinforcements were approaching but they have been re-routed.
With 2-3 more turns, I would have been able to reinforce the base in a proper manner, but with only 50AV I fear the end will be quick.

On the positive side, Suva is well defended and supplied, something extremely useful should Noumea fall.



IV. DEI

In Luzon we're approaching the showdown. Omar has roughly 1,200AV in Manila vs my 1,400AV. We both have around 400AV SOUTH of Manila also.
He has a division SOUTH of the city and I have roughly 400AV SOUTH of the division SOUTH of the city. Even though tempting, I'll resist the idea of a sortie out of Manila in order to maul the lone IJA division: the defenders inside the city wouldn't hold.


Last turn I've sent a dozen B17 from Calcutta to Clark Field and bombed Miri. I encountered a bunch of Nates and did a single OIL hit. Not very sure of the effective damage to the wells since my recon has decided to enjoy beers and ladies rather than face the enemy.


The big news is however that he landed with 4 IJA division on Java. Kalidjati to be precise. No realistic defense of the island is possible and it will fall rather quickly. In my wildest dreams, his divisions will be bogged down there for 3 weeks in total.
I've evacuated ALL the FUEL and most of the SUPPLIES. Valuable air groups have also been shipped out some turn ago together with cadres of Malaya Army's units. Tomorrow or the day after, I'll ship away the two dutch big air bases with the last two cargoes present in the island. Provided Omar doesn't sink them.



V. CBI

Let's start with the "simple" Burma. Nothing serious happens in the sector and it looks like the Japanese forces won't assault Rangoon soon due to a lack of AV. A flying column of AA, inf and ARM is moving towards Magwe, which is already empty. They're currently in Tuongoo.


Now China.
China is sheer madness. I completely screwed it up initially and now I'm trying to fix it but it's quite late already.

There are billions of IJA penetrations and I'm barely holding a thin line on the mountains around Sian. Ankanag, retaken time ago, will fall and its defender will be slaugthered.

Sian proper is still firmly in my hands. A small counterattack NORTH of Sian managed to dislodge a tank unit from a mountain hex but hasn't been able to retake a base he captured some turns ago.
In the meanwhile, IJA troops keep pouring from the EAST, marching past Sian and taking position NORTH of it.
He's plenty of tanks and I don't have AT in Sian, also; it's a deficiency I'll hopefully solve in the very next couple of turns thanks to x36 Australian 2pdr coming from the deep Australian desert. They're now in Chunking and will be airlifted to Sian.
I have some AT guns in the Ankang sector, but I don't really believe they can make any difference: they should be massed, but I have too few AT units around to play with.

In Patung, dot N-W of Ichang, he has two divisions happily marching WEST. I plan to flank those fellas after they move a couple of hexes further W.

Changsha sector apparently calm (won't remain so for long I guess). The important base of Chengchow might be invested soon. I don't understand whether he's moving troops NORTH towards Patung or towards Chengchow. Too early to tell.
Changsha proper is decently defended and I suspect will be invested by minor forces soon.

Further SOUTH, Wenchow fell yesterday after a valid resistance. I could have invested more in the base, but I'm happy with the result, which entangled and damaged three IJA divisions.

In the deep SOUTH, I've launched an offensive around Canton but it's mostly smoke in the eyes. Omar is taking it very seriously, airlifting whoever can be airlifted in the sector.

Luckily enough, I'm still somehow contesting the air. Actually, I'm in relative air superiority in certain areas and holding quite well the blood-thirsty IJAAF.



VI. OTHER

Nothing relevant to mention.
It's still only JAN-42 and it's a long long way to the end of amph bonus, which should create the conditions for a slow down in Japanese operations.

Currently, I'm mostly trying to oblige him to come in forces when he pushes forward.

I've at my disposal 3 US CV + 1 UK CV in the WESTERN sector of the map and 1 US CV in the EASTERN. In 50 days circa (IIRC), another US CV will arrive, bringing the total up to 5.

In India the flow of reinforcements is finally taking place and there is even a small complement of fighter groups.

Australia, if invaded, would probably be lost a part from the major x4 urban hexes. Not enough troops reached it yet.

[ITAKLinus]

[center]14 JANUARY 1942
TURN 39[/center]

I. NOPAC

Nothing new to report.


II. CENPAC

I have sent a decoy AVP NORTH of PH towards Midway and back. Omar bombs with a couple of Mavis an empty dot in which he suspected I disbanded the AVP.
Therefore, apparently there are no Betty/Nell on Midway.


III. SOPAC

The AirCombatTF in New Caledonia area goes SOUTH of Noumea. The unidentified TF NORTH of New Caledonia is instead approaching Koumac, or so it seems. It's probably a FastTransportTF carrying a small invasion force for Noumea.
Noumea which has 52AV and cannot resist even the slightest offensive.


IV. DEI

While the landing on Java continue, Omar launches a deliberate in Manila.

Odds very decent for the defenders (1:5) but roughly the same losses in terms of infantry destryoed/disabled. In the skies a dozen allied planes manages to down a couple of Nates and 4 Lilies. Not that bad.


V. CBI

Surprisingly, Tuongoo resists the first Japanese deliberate. Not that I have any kind of hope or interest in holding it.

Rangoon stil firmly in Allied hands.

China is a mess as usual. Many victims everywhere and it seems I will lose it rather quickly.

India is doing remarkably well in its buildup. I am quite satisfied. Personally, I have the feeling of a Celyon invasion for various reasons.
Many troops are arriving in India on a regular basis and the chinese corps airlifted from China are on their way to full strength (a very long way actually). Calcutta is reasonably defended and same with other major locations such as Madras. Celyon, evacuated at the beginning of the war and with a token 300AV in total, might very well be reinforced soon in order to present a higher degree of resistance, should Omar land there.

My real issue in this match so far is China, which I've screwed up due to my complacency in playing it and underestimation of the opponent skills in playing the theater.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

My real issue in this match so far is China, which I've screwed up due to my complacency in playing it and underestimation of the opponent skills in playing the theater.

Don't beat yourself up too much. Losing China has been de rigueur for the Allies in competitive games for quite some time now.

It's a big bonus to Japan, but far from fatal for the Allies. You'll see more and bigger LCU's, especially in the Pacific and it's a windfall for the IJA in terms of planes and aviation support.

That said, it gives the IJN absolutely zero ships, and this game is predominantly a naval game!

[ITAKLinus]

[center]15-16 JANUARY 1942
TURN 40-41[/center]

I.NOPAC

Nothing happens.

II.CENPAC

I somehow manage to bring roughly 10 APDs in PH and I keep shipping troops in advanced positions. PH itself is well defended.


III.SOPAC

I miss the invasion forces with my light SCTFs and one of the CVs sinks a kiwi CL in response. A random DD is also hit and sinks miserably.

On the 16th, Omar lands an Infantry Regiment and the 65th Brigade in La Foa, dot NORTH of Noumea. I started evacuating the few units present in Noumea proper using catalinas.
Sadly, I can't oppose anything to him there: I hadn't enough time to ship in sufficient reinforcements.

A couple of US Army regiments will start unloading tomorrow in Melbourne, while some 200 odd australian AVs are being unloaded in NZ, for which security I do fear. I was tempted to redirect the two US Army to NZ but I guess I won't. There isn't much I can do over there in case he wants to do a proper invasion and the forces already present will at least discourage any smaller attack.

Suva is well defended with circa 350AV behind forts lvl3 (soon 4) and sufficient supplies. This is important, since I desperately need to hold the area in order to neutralize Japanese move in Noumea: with his eastern flank occupied by consistent forces, the defense of Noumea won't be easy for him.

Forces in Australia are concentrated on the magic triangle Brisbane-Sidney-Melbourne and they do amount to roughly 2,700AV. I don't care at all of the Townsville area.

Perth's security is a problem, however. I don't know how to fix that, also, since I believe the place is impossible to hold against a determined Japanese push. In line of principle, I can hope to hold it with the fleet however.


IV.DEI

IJA troops are everywhere on Java, whose fall is waited in few days. Batavia can't resist this amount of IJA AVs, let alone Soerabaja. I'll do my best to gain some days here and there.
After the fall of Java, I won't be able to use the Indian Ocean direct route between Australia and India.

Manila holds and Omar is bringing in further reinforcements. The 5th Infantry Division is headed to Batangs, SOUTH of Manila, and various tank units to Legaspi.

In all likelihood, he will move on Timor or Darwin tomorrow: there is a good chunk of IJN shipping in Ambon and the KB appeared SOUTH of Kendari.

KB minus two CVs and not one as initially thought. As far as I can tell, he detached both the Shokaku-Class in the SoPac and he's using the remaining 4 CVs in the DEI. Initially I had the impression he had detached the Shokaku AND a CVL, but now I tend to think he detached the class altogether and I simply mistook one of the two CVs for a CVL.
The SigInt has been clear with "Shokaku call sign...".


V.CBI

The horror as usual. His forces march everywhere and there is little to nothing I can do in China for the time being.

In Burma, he captured Tuongoo and I think he's trying to surround completely Rangoon before starting the deliberate attacks.

I start to have a decent airforce in the sector, with 60 odd Hurricanes and roughly 50 P40s. 75 P39 Aircobra are arriving soon from Cape Town.

The whole allied fleet is currently in the area refuelling and repairing some points of their damages. I am trying to leverage the fact his divisions are busy in Java to refurbish my fleet and make it ready for the next phase. The appearance of KB SOUTH of Kendari highlights a probable operations either against India or against Perth.

My current vision is to refurbish the fleet in Celyon and then move SOUTH towards India, trying to exploit the NORTH-SOUTH sea route in the Indian Ocean until it is open. In the meanwhile, I will reinforce Celyon with ground units and hope for the best.
Rationale being that Perth is basically impossible to defend on the land, while Celyon can be defended well enough to require a major Japanese effort.

Losing Perth wouldn't be a disaster per-se, but the loss of Noumea and the current precarious situation in the SOPAC makes me fear for the route to Australia.


VI.OTHER

As mentioned above, I fear for a major Japanese effort against Australia. I have various signs pointing at a move on Celyon, but I still think it's not where the full might of the Empire will fall upon.
Australia has to be held at all costs and I currently need to secure a very big area of the map.

NZ would be a bizarre move from his side and I'm probably fearing it too much, influenced by my other game where I'm going to take it in few turns. However, it's a possibility which shouldn't be discarded.

Currently, my efforts will point to Suva and the bases EAST of it in order to create a solid area from which to flank and by-pass Noumea. If Omar moves to NZ, the relevance of Suva should even be higher, given that a move on Noumea's flank can cut him off in NZ itself.
On top of that, Australia should be relatively self-sufficient for quite a while. Once the convoys approaching it will have unloaded (last week of JAN-42 at latest), I'll have +500k ton of each FUEL and SUPPLIES and I deem it sufficient for a while.

I am pondering on the opportunity of bringing to Australia the 5th Chinese Corps, which is currently in Calcutta and can be brought there in relatively few turns using fast APs. It has only 500AV worth of squads, but it's cheap blood for an area which needs it. It would be substituted in Calcutta by another Chinese Corps which is currently being airlifted out of China.

Food for thought

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

My real issue in this match so far is China, which I've screwed up due to my complacency in playing it and underestimation of the opponent skills in playing the theater.

Don't beat yourself up too much. Losing China has been de rigueur for the Allies in competitive games for quite some time now.

It's a big bonus to Japan, but far from fatal for the Allies. You'll see more and bigger LCU's, especially in the Pacific and it's a windfall for the IJA in terms of planes and aviation support.

That said, it gives the IJN absolutely zero ships, and this game is predominantly a naval game!

mind_messing, you're too kind. I screwed up China due to my complacency and total disregard for the basic rules of warfare.

Frankly, it's a theater of operations I have never lost on either side and I played it in a reckless and over-confident manner.


Now, not everything is lost and I might even be able to hold Chugking and turn the situation in a stalemate, but I highly doubt so.

I have roughly 3,000AV moving to reinforce CK in addition to the troops already there, so I can try to do something to keep the boat somehow afloat for a little bit more.



The troops he can free from China are a problem if he can start taking them from the theater before the other ones are stabilized. I need to hold for some more months in China for him to leave most if not all the China Command HQ troops there.
Planes are another issue, but he can potentially take them out of China rather quickly anyway.
Ships, as mentioned, aren't involved.
Supplies are, however, and that's the big gain for him. China is very supply-intensive.


Broadly speaking, what I can hope now is to hold CK for a while and reach some kind of stalemate with his troops pushed too much forward with only minor supply routes available.

I doubt he can push enough supplies through the routes he currently controls, and this is my only real hope.

[ITAKLinus]

We're in mid-January 1942.

I still have 70 circa of amph bonus and 40 turns have passed.


VP-wise we're 11,718 : 9,154 or a ratio of 1.28:1 in his favour.

The situation is obviously dire and I will need to make great efforts in order to stem the Japanese forces.

In line of principle, I count on Java falling by the end of January and Luzon in mid-February at earliest.

This leaves 4 IJA divisions (plus other sparse forces) in Java and with long time to strike somewhere else.

The options are rather many, but I see as very likely a push in Australia or, god forbids, NZ.

Let's analyse the first option, Australia.

If he smashes Java by the 01/02/1942, he's has more than enough time to use those forces for a landing on either the eastern or the western coast.

The western coast is the big issue, given the fact that I deem Perth impossible to defend properly against a convinced Japanese effort. Moreover, his supply routes would be relatively short and mine sub-optimal.
I am leaning toward leaving him Perth, which is not so easy to defend for him in the mid-term.
This brings us to the key area of eastern Australia, where I need to create a credible defensive position. I currently have roughly 2,500AV in the area, plus 200AV further north. It's not an awfully bad force and it's being bolstered by various US Army reinforcements.

Holding tight both eastern Australia and the Suva area would leave me ample time to replenish my depleted forces and counterattack relatively early without too many risks.

This, obviously, has two orders of consequences:
A) Gulf of Bengal is left to its own devices and I'll have to just hope for the best over there
B) Perth wouldn't be left in allied hands for long in case of a move against Australia.

I'm not over concerned about a possible invasion of India, where I think I can fight effectively and delay him enough.

I'm more concerned by a major effort in eastern Australia, where I can somehow fight back but I am at huge risk of losing billions of VPs through strategic bombing.
In order to avoid strat bombing, I need to hold Brisbane area. The base itself is not defensible (plain terrain) and I don't have enough forces to prevent those forces from being cut off in case he decides to land further south.


In the meanwhile, I must bring forward the units necessary for my own offensives and it takes time. My main targets are the New Hebrides (still in my hands but empty) and Midway. I suspect recapturing Canton Island would be a very interesting move, but I deem it out of my possibilities for quite a while.


On top of that, on 07/03/1942 arrives the Hornet, then on the 10/03/1942 the Formidable.
They are followed by the Illustrious on the 24/04/1942 and by the Wasp on 16/06/1942.

This, leaves me with a credible force of 6 USN CVs and 3 RN CVs by the end of June 1942.

I won't be able to face the KB, but I'll definitely be able to keep it at bay. Same goes with the LBA, which will see drastical improvements in terms of available matériel and pilot quality.


For the time being, we try to survive the day and make the amphibious bonus expire. Then, we see.

[mind_messing]

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

My real issue in this match so far is China, which I've screwed up due to my complacency in playing it and underestimation of the opponent skills in playing the theater.

Don't beat yourself up too much. Losing China has been de rigueur for the Allies in competitive games for quite some time now.

It's a big bonus to Japan, but far from fatal for the Allies. You'll see more and bigger LCU's, especially in the Pacific and it's a windfall for the IJA in terms of planes and aviation support.

That said, it gives the IJN absolutely zero ships, and this game is predominantly a naval game!

The troops he can free from China are a problem if he can start taking them from the theater before the other ones are stabilized. I need to hold for some more months in China for him to leave most if not all the China Command HQ troops there.

You're only likely to see a big change in Burma, Thailand and Malaya for ground units. The VP bottleneck limits how many divisions can be bought out and how quickly.

Different dynamic if the IJ player deliberately looks to buy out units weakened by combat on the cheap to rebuild, however...

[ITAKLinus]

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

ORIGINAL: ITAKLinus

ORIGINAL: mind_messing




Don't beat yourself up too much. Losing China has been de rigueur for the Allies in competitive games for quite some time now.

It's a big bonus to Japan, but far from fatal for the Allies. You'll see more and bigger LCU's, especially in the Pacific and it's a windfall for the IJA in terms of planes and aviation support.

That said, it gives the IJN absolutely zero ships, and this game is predominantly a naval game!

The troops he can free from China are a problem if he can start taking them from the theater before the other ones are stabilized. I need to hold for some more months in China for him to leave most if not all the China Command HQ troops there.

You're only likely to see a big change in Burma, Thailand and Malaya for ground units. The VP bottleneck limits how many divisions can be bought out and how quickly.

Different dynamic if the IJ player deliberately looks to buy out units weakened by combat on the cheap to rebuild, however...

We allow to buy out units through the 20th Army command, which makes them 25% of the original "price".


This, makes buying out a division per week quite feasible. Not to speak about the plethora of Type-C division which will arrive over the course of 1942.