Fall Grau 2.28 Jeremy (Axis) vs. Ben (Allies)

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 66
An utterly brutal turn that, I suspect, puts the nail in my coffin. Ben blasts back hard on the East Coast and continues to push in Illinois but it is really out on the far west where he destroys my hopes and dreams with an attack that just slices through Italian lines surrounding and destroying something like 6 HQs. This pretty much ruins the Italians as a fighting force capable of more than flank guard duty.

My own turn is spent trying to recover the position on the East Coast and trying to do something to reverse what just happened out in the West while trying to bolster the line in Illinois. I manage this after a fashion, but I am not at all sure I am going to be able to keep up much of an advance on the East Coast as I think Ben may be able to simply counter attack as hard as I can attack given his better supply situation. The Panzers are great but they take time to resupply and Ben seems to be in a position to nearly always have freshly supplied forces to counter attack with given how much faster he resupplies.

Out in the West I manage a little bit with the counter attack but certainly not everything I had hoped and remain vulnerable.

[Edit: In retrospect I pretty much have only myself to blame for how big a disaster this is. I note last turn that I see Ben bringing in reinforcements and then come to the conclusion that I should push harder before they show up on this turn. What I should have done is gone for a double line and prepared to take the blow. In reality I end last turn (see the screenshot from that turn) utterly unprepared to take a counter attack.]

The position at the end of the turn as I desperately try and recover from Ben's brutal counter attack. Note here I have belatedly started setting up a double line. The red highlighted hex and the one directly south of it are a problem however because when my units retreat they are trying to go to San Fransisco (my nearest supply point) and my units retreat into these hexs where they are easily surrounded and destroyed.

Fall Grau JB 66.jpg (1.05 MiB) Viewed 1925 times

[golden delicious]

Turn 66:
Well this is not quite the turn I expected. Jeremy barely moved in New England, he didn't come close to his position at the start of my last turn and it feels like this is the Axis basically at a standstill. I continue my counterattacks and hope to build up a buffer in front of Hartford.

On the other hand, I took a bit of a thumping from the Axis in Wyoming, even losing a couple of units. A group of good German mechanised units hit in the centre and the Italians it seems are not out of the war yet. Between the strong showing on my right and centre and my refusal of my own left flank last turn, with both flanks then hanging in thin air beyond, this position actually feels somewhat dangerous; from the hex ownership it looks like there are more Axis troops directly NORTH of this position.... however when I scout this out it turns out to be old Axis controlled hexes from earlier in the match. This makes the view somewhat rosier but I still need to beat the Axis here when they're present in strength, or else pull back again. I start strong by collapsing the weak parts of the Italian-Romanian positions to the west by RBC, which puts 3 HQs and almost 3 divisions in a single hex pocket which I will immediately destroy.

One thing that's clear is that all these old National Guard divisions, which are mostly 4-4s and 5-6s, cannot continue on the line when there are good German panzers coming up, as they're a liability and will just RBC. I'll try to swap these out to static positions in the east as and when I can get them back to the rail. I begin doing this now but it'll be laborious, as I have a lot of rail movements to make with so many fronts and such a large force in the field. More of a priority is adding the fresh units which will replace them; seven divisions in various states rail up here this turn. I could probably have used my rail lift twice over or more this turn as I have a dozen or so divisions on various eastern fronts that I'd like to bring west, either to Wyoming or Oregon, where the Japanese continue to press forward, having finally put Eureka out of supply. I have a scratch force here already which is able to make good progress against the overextended and overstretched Japanese.

Shortage of rail lift also means continuing the counteroffensive in Illinois, and it's here that my attacks are most devastating, smashing my way through several hexes and destroying one division on the line. In general though the war has returned to its grim, attritional character after last turn's flash of excitement, wearing away turn after turn at vulnerable hexes in a generally strong Axis position, concentrating artillery and airpower to trade losses on favourable ratios where I can. I'm hoping if I can get more forces concentrated in the west that this will begin to shift and I can fight a mobile campaign again to finally finish the Axis.

FG66a.png (643.55 KiB) Viewed 1913 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 67
The problems don’t let up with Ben continuing to smash the Italians and Romanians in the far Northwest. I realize near the end of my turn that part of my large issue here is that San Fransisco is closer than Houston and therefore my Axis have a lethal habit of retreating into the pockets Ben is making and that is certainly what takes place this turn with a bunch of Italian Divisions killing themselves by retreating into the pocket Ben forms and then liquidates.

Otherwise, Ben continues a slower push in Illinois and vigorous counter attacks out on the East Coast.

On my turn its very much defencive in the Northwest and Illinois, this is in large part because two of the new German Panzer Corps go into reorganization so I just don’t have and offensive potential. This is true in the East as well, but I only have a few units from these formations out there so here I continue to apply pressure albeit we are mainly just going back and forth here at this point.

There are also two smaller campaigns heating up at this point with Ben slowly building up a small force near Guadalajara which is causing me to divert some Italian forces this way. I have also continued to advance to the north with the Japanese out on the West Coast with Ben, in some cases launching heavy counter attacks with Armored Divisions but I have cut off Eurika which is interesting as it has an admittedly poor supply point [Edit: It’s supply point is in fact 100% - something I won’t realize until much, much later in the match].

I have come to the conclusion that I withdrew the Axis Panzer Corps too quickly as I always have piles of forces backed up. At this stage I have both Japanese and German forces stacked up. My withdrawal schedule was more for around 30,000 sea transport and next time I would withdraw slower if I had much less then that. Probably a 3 then 4 turn alternating withdrawal for my current sea lift and every 4 turns if I went with no extra sea lift.

Another sad marker to just how poorly I am doing is this turn the Spread goes to -58. Ben has now achieved a spread for the Allies better then I ever achieved for the Axis.

The Japanese face little resistance as they lay siege to Eureka

Fall Grau JB 67.jpg (1.08 MiB) Viewed 1898 times

[golden delicious]

Turn 67:
Looks like last turn was a blip in New England, as the panzers blast ahead again, disrupting quite a lot of my counterattackers. I have so many pieces here, though, that I should still be able to scrape enough together to push back, setting up first round counterattacks on four hexes where I have flank bonuses. I add four new Canadian Guard divisions to this front, plus a reconstituted US infantry division; the infantry that's been in the line here for a while is starting to burn out and I'd like more of Jeremy's attacks to land on Canadian troops for which I still have several turns worth of replacements on hand.

I continue to press in Illinois; here I think I may be able to get back to the Mississippi-Ohio eventually, as Jeremy is content for this to be a fighting retreat. Wyoming is still a back and forth but more German troops are here now making this heavier going for me. However, there's a corps of Hungarians in the centre and if I hit these while moving around the northern flank, I can make Jeremy's position more difficult. Well, the Hungarians collapse fairly easily and this creates a gap in the Axis line, but I'm not really able to exploit it and I think Jeremy has enough pieces lying around here to patch this up. This could still turn into a big double envelopment for the Axis instead, as there are major German armour concentrations either side of the bulge I've created. A good turn for Jeremy would create a rather big bag here.

Illinois remains the highlight as my unstoppable Canadians approach to within two hexes of St. Louis, reducing a couple of really very strong German infantry divisions to wreckage along the way. I think the Axis line is too strong to push back to the Ohio over on the eastern side but I now have quite an excellent defensive position and may look to start withdrawing the Canadians next turn. I'm contemplating a local offensive to liberate Minneapolis, which would give me an additional two National Guard divisions and an armoured division. The Canadians could be used for this, then go off to fight somewhere else when it's done. In general, it feels like the match is almost deadlocked- except that my replacements go up to 138% in three turns. Then Jeremy really will be in trouble.

The dangerous Allied position in Wyoming. Note the weak Axis positions west of Alliance, NB, which nevertheless stood firm for most of the turn

FG67a.png (979.88 KiB) Viewed 1893 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 68
This one dangles some hope my way. Out on the West Coat I have essentially gotten my wish that Ben would actually defend the perimeter. There are now significant forces building up to block my advance north. That likely stops my advance north but at least I have forced Ben to divert actual forces here.

The Northwest is where the real action is as Ben drives an offencive deep into the centre of my line even while deploying forces out to the flanks. It is a bit of a fluke that my line mostly seems to hold together. Apparently, a stack of HQs actually held off two separate attacks by an Armored Division. On my turn I start with a push back that pretty much exposes that the western flank of Ben’s line is actually pretty weak and I decide to really go for it flinging everything at both the western and eastern flanks on both sides of Ben’s Schwerpunkt. It is a nail biter the whole turn, but I manage to cut a large number of Allies forces off but now I am scattered about in Ben’s rear area here and prone to being cut off and destroyed myself. This has now just gone very mobile and I have to hope that I can manage to come out on top because, so far moves like this have tended to just see me lose some valuable pieces without really doing that much harm to Ben’s Allies.

The other fronts are evolving as well. In Illinois Ben’s offencive continues but now mostly only on one side of the front. As more of my own New Panzers have been arriving I am beginning to think I will be going back over to the offensive here myself. Though now I just have to, once again, fight my way back over terrain that we have repeatedly traded back and forth.

On the East coast the brutal back and forth continues but I have a lot of Panzers that I desperately need to pull off the front line for refits that I just can’t seem to manage because any slackening of my own offencive sees Ben just drive me backward hard.

Loss Rate: Axis: 388 / Allies: 326 / Spread: -62

The Axis pull off a double envelopment of the Allies but are vulnerable to the forward elements being cut off and destroyed

Fall Grau JB 68.jpg (1.07 MiB) Viewed 1887 times

[golden delicious]

Turn 68:
Yep- there it is. A huge number of Allied units are now in a big pocket in Wyoming (I count fifteen divisions, seven HQs and various brigades). It's not exactly an iron ring and a lot of these units were in fairly good supply condition so these troops aren't gone yet, but this certainly makes things interesting, and if Jeremy had achieved this anywhere else on the map I'd say this would put him back in the match. As it is, there's simply nothing to gain here once the dust settles. Yes, Jeremy may kill a number of divisions- but then what? He's just diverted a good chunk of his panzer troops to the most worthless part of the map.

OK let's see. I think Jeremy is a good deal stronger than me here, especially now, so the plan has to be to get out what I can get out and then not be here any more. This is going to mean consolidating and potentially leaving a lot of stuff behind- and it's possible the right option would be just to let the whole pocket die, but I'm not really in the mood for this. Instead, I concentrate everything I can pull together into attacks against the base of each pincer, supported from outside with a flank bonus. This at least gives me a shot at destroying a couple of divisions while I fight my way out. I have a few good divisions out on the eastern flank which I pull in to plug the gap in the centre. I pull in one more division by road from the Sioux City area for the eastern flank, then add five divisions from Illinois and three newly formed; this should allow me to cover any withdrawal next turn, or counterattack should the opportunity present itself.

The limits of my rail lift are such that it will take at least one more turn to empty all the troops out of Illinois, so I continue a limited drive there where the Axis look weak, and also continue the back and forth in New England.

The bombers all go out and Jeremy's spearheads are duly cut off- but then I fail the force proficiency check. This is pretty fatal: another turn of determined German attacks here will really wreck my trapped troops. It may also mean I lose Hartford, as while I drove the Axis back in three of the four hexes I attacked, none of my pieces advanced.

Time to check in on my strength again (in 000s) 62 / 68:
Squads:
Irregular: 2.2 / 2.4
Mounted Rifle: 6.9 / 6.8
Motorcycle: 1.5 / 1.5
Light Rifle: 29.1 / 28.5
Light Rifle AT-: 10.5 / 10.1
Rifle: 19.3 / 21.6
Rifle AT-: 16.2 / 17.1
Heavy Rifle: 4.7 / 4.6
Engineer: 4.3 / 4.6
Total Combat Squads: 94.7k / 97.2k
The drop in all the National Guard categories reflects the fact I got a measly two National Guard divisions this turn, a fact I intend to remedy with the planned raid on Minneapolis. Most of the growth is down to the arrival of the second (and final) Canadian Guard army; this shows that I'm still very much dependent on reinforcements to keep my army growing. This should all change in two turns, when my replacements go through the roof- although this is also the turn when replacements for the M4/75 and M6 tanks cease. These two types make up the majority of my tank strength, and I may be about to lose hundreds of them in Wyoming.

Portrait of an early turn ending

FG68a.png (613.96 KiB) Viewed 1881 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 69 Axis Infantry Squads and Armour

Turn 69 Compare.jpg (331.24 KiB) Viewed 1871 times

Again both Infantry and Armour see a significant boost.

The armour increase is a little more diverse but I suspect that it remains essentially a swap with older Tanks continuing to dwindle as a significant part of the replacement pool while New Panzer Divisions arrive full of new tanks. The boost is more Japanese means more crappy ineffective Japanese tanks.

The sizable increase in the Infantry Squads is purely the arrival of more Japanese Divisions. At this stage if we combine the Recon Rifle Squads with the Light Rifle Squads we actually have more then the Heavy Rifle AT- Squads... translation there are more Japanese Squads on the map then there are German Squads. The problem is the Japanese are just not effective with their short supply line and extremely weak to Armour Divisions. It really highlights that the Axis player needs to secure the Panama Canal despite the difficulties in doing so. Three 'lent' German Panzer Divisions and enough rail repair to fix the Japanese supply situation would make a huge difference in how this scenario played out.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 69
Wow, what a turn! Last turn I had pulled off a move that cut off a large chunk of the Allied armies out in the Northwest but of course I had the usual deep concern that Ben would simply reverse this and that is how the turn starts for the Allies – they swiftly cut off the spear heads cutting most of their forces off while beginning to pull back with the cut off forces. Though not all of them. My spearheads are cut off… and then the Allies blow a proficiency check. They never get a 2nd round. In another game I would suspect that the game itself was tilting the odds but I simply can’t imagine that being in the code of TOAW. There is just no way.

So, by pure fluke what should probably have been “Ben escapes the trap while actually punishing me more then he gets punished” does not come to pass and I am handed an absolutely golden opportunity to do what I have never been able to do in this match – smash an Allied Army. It is not even particularly hard because Ben never had a chance to dig in or anything which means closing the ring of steel is just my Panzers throwing back half strength National Guard Divisions in mobile formation and I am usually attacking with 2-3 Panzer Divisions versus 1 unfortunate National Guard Division.

I am holding my breath for the first two rounds of combat because, if I get early turn ending, then Ben will still slip the trap and I can’t even attack much of his forces cut off in the pocket because I would retreat them out of the pocket if I did and I don’t want that but I get those key first two rounds and more and it is an absolute slaughter later in the turn as I just begin to liquidate the entire pocket. The only downside is that there is so much there and it takes so long to kill that some significant forces still exist in two huge stacks behind my lines when my turn finally runs out. Ben might be able to save these guys or put together something of a reverse. He did rail in a significant amount of reinforcements to this front on his turn and there is an Allied Army still here outside of this pocket.

One significant element on this front is that we are both being absolutely screwed by the retreat direction. I am sure I have complained in turns past that my units where retreating into pockets because they want to retreat to San Francisco. Well, it turns out Ben’s units are doing the exact same thing. They want to retreat to Chicago and from this angle that is toward me.

It is a good turn on the other fronts as well primarily because a 1 rounder screws Ben pretty much everywhere. Things are getting dicey on the West Coast in the north as Ben begins a counter attack that looks to be trying to cut off some of my Japanese forces. I counter some of that by cutting off the Armored Division leading the charge but Ben is in a position to keep up this counter attack next turn. I am racing my airbourne units north as they represent my main reserve (I have more units resting in San Francisco but really want them in the south so I will call them out only if I really have too).

In Illinois I gather my now mostly rebuilt forces along with some newly arriving Panzer Divisions and launch an offencive into the centre of the line and am pretty pleased when the line appears to just dissolve. Ben has, at some previous point, stripped the second line out of the area and with no backup line the Axis breakthrough the centre and start driving forward. I don’t see a bunch of reserves though I am concerned that the western flank of the breakout might be weak because this was where Ben was concentrated in his own offencive. I am hoping that some of these forces are in reorganization and that this will put even more strain on Ben’s ability to find reserves.

Finally on the East Coast I am able to advance significantly further than I would have expected simply because Ben had no real time to develop a counter attack and this turn I storm into Hartford. That said my forces are pretty exhausted and Ben is not short on units facing me here so I kind of doubt I hold the city on his turn.

All in all it is a phenomenal turn. In terms of the loss rate this is the single biggest swing in my favour in the entire game so far. The spread drops from above 60 against me to around 45 against me. Despite everything while my bottomed out moral rises significantly I still doubt I win this thing and it’d be a miracle if I manage a draw. This great turn only worked because I got insanely lucky. I’d have been toast if Ben had gotten even a two rounder. The way I am playing this – the way I have been playing this the whole match, is wrong. I need smaller victories where I endlessly cut off and kill a few units a turn. I even think I have a significantly better idea how Ben achieves the results he gets when he is pulling that off and also why he tends to not get such results in Illinois. On the defence the real gold standard is a double line of defence and on the attack its all about greater concentrations of force to allow breakthroughs which have enough strength in the base as well as generally aiming for parts of the line where the defender can’t easily manage a double line of defence (or that defence has become so worn down that the second line is made of garbage).

Unfortunately for me that revelation has come to late. I just don’t have enough forces left to reasonably make these kinds of concentrations. What I have is a smaller number of very powerful units supported by still not enough very burnt out German Divisions or Axis Minors that generally can’t be counted upon. [Edit: The realization has certainly come late but I still have a fair bit of power coming onto the map in the form of the returned Panzer Corps.]

For the first time in the match a major Allied Army has been encircled and is in the process of being liquidated.

Fall Grau JB 69.jpg (1.04 MiB) Viewed 1870 times

[golden delicious]

Turn 69:
A whole lot going on here as a result of the bad turn last turn. Let's start with Hartford, which Jeremy occupied on his turn. I have a lot of units here so taking it back should be straightforward, but I'm going to need to do more than that if I don't want to keep being shoved out of it every single turn. This isn't helped by half of the Canadians being in reorganisation. Mindful of last turn's experience where no-one advanced into vacated hexes, I'm putting my armoured divisions on "ignore losses" this time.

Something unexpected happened in Illinois, where Jeremy surged back onto the offensive and blew a great big hole in my line. This isn't too troubling as I have plenty of spare troops in the area and can simply shut down the drive which was more or less finished anyway, but it does mean none of these units are going to Minneapolis any time soon. I'm also dealing with the ongoing Japanese offensive in northern California, where my attempt to cut a unit off last turn resulted in MY unit being cut off, but I'll have another go this turn

This takes us to Wyoming- which of course is the main event. I can't say that my worst fears were realised here, as Jeremy neither devoured the whole pocket in one go, nor did he make a serious move to envelop the "safe" forces further back. On the other hand, the troops nearest the trapped troops- already a shadow of their former selves- are already starting to be outflanked. If I'm to stay here and attempt to pull something out of this pocket, I do risk serious consequences next turn- but I do have quite a few good divisions coming up from last turn's rail movement. I decide to go for it, using the troops in place to try to smash the rather weak German troops blocking the immediate exit from the pocket, while those further back surge forward and hit the shoulders.

Well, most of the trapped forces evaporate on their way out. I may get one HQ back to my lines, but the main silver lining here is that I destroyed one of the encircling panzer divisions. I bag another in Illinois where Jeremy really underestimated by strength. I also cut off and mostly destroy two Japanese divisions, while generally giving this part of the front a going over- even in bad terrain the Japanese struggle to deal with my M4/75s here. Unfortunately this is too late to save Eureka, which will fall any turn now, giving the Japanese a badly needed forward supply point

I get Hartford, but only just. I'm starting to feel nervous about the east coast. I haven't seriously reinforced this front for several turns and most of my units here are at their limit. The answer will have to be disengaging from Wyoming- where the battle should reach a natural lull next turn anyway as Jeremy's forces have achieved their objectives and are now exhausted from the effort. Another immediate action fo turn 70 would be to evacuate my remaining forces from New Hampshire and Vermont; doing so would allow me to shorten the line by six hexes, releasing a number of first class infantry divisions. I fully expect to lose Hartford for good next turn and I don't want this to be followed by Albany- or New York City. Losses like this could start to push the game into a draw (Jeremy only needs to take 40 on-map VPs for this) which would be hard to dig myself out of. Still, even without Hartford my replacements will be well over 100%, and my losses of the last two turns should be made good very rapidly.

The killing fields of Connecticut

FG69a.png (987.5 KiB) Viewed 1863 times

[golden delicious]

The way I am playing this – the way I have been playing this the whole match, is wrong. I need smaller victories where I endlessly cut off and kill a few units a turn. I even think I have a significantly better idea how Ben achieves the results he gets when he is pulling that off and also why he tends to not get such results in Illinois. On the defence the real gold standard is a double line of defence and on the attack its all about greater concentrations of force to allow breakthroughs which have enough strength in the base as well as generally aiming for parts of the line where the defender can’t easily manage a double line of defence (or that defence has become so worn down that the second line is made of garbage).

Concentrating force is a no-brainer, but concentrating it in the right place is more of a challenge. I've had a few opportunities where you've had a very mixed bag of units on the front line, and have been able to smash the weak units to compromise the positions of the strong ones, but in order to create these tactical wins you need to keep a constant fear of the big move in the mind of your opponent. You absolutely don't have the pieces for a double line everywhere, and building one typically means stripping down the front elsewhere- and holding hexes with those weaker units.

Another thing for me in this match has been a lot of expediency. I find myself attacking in less than ideal circumstances because redeploying to hit your weakpoints takes time and I need to keep you off balance and then exploit vulnerabilities while they exist. This is particularly a TOAW problem as artillery is effectively infinite and so there's not really much point in saving shells for that big push- just fire them all every turn.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 70
As a turn this was neither great nor terrible. Ben counter attacks hard pretty much across the front. On the West Coast he is blasting me back and I have lost a number of divisions, on the other hand nothing critical is in danger and he is certainly deploying significant forces to this front meaning the Japanese are at least doing something. I end up trying to bolster the front. I am being thrown on the defencive here but that is OK, particularly as I have a bunch of new Division land here – I had actually planned to land them much further to the south but I forgot that I had excess sea transport this turn and almost forgot to land them at all, only remembering very near the end of the turn and I could only reach the far northern port I had just captured.

In the North West Ben tries to break out of the trap but really does not succeed however I am surprised when the new 23rd Panzer dissolves in the area. I actually dig up the battle that occurred in and am shocked when it appears the Division was a mere fraction of its full size. It must have been something like a 3-3 when it finally succumbed. This gets me to go and look at my Panzer Stockpiles. After all I had been building up spare Panthers starting on turn 25 and had at one point had around 800 in the on hand pool… Oh my they are all gone. I have 33 in the on hand pool – that is how many I make a turn. This is not great news as losses can’t really be replaced. Nonetheless I do manage to liquidate everything that remains that was surrounded this turn and catch out another Division but my forces on this front are burnt out and I need time to resupply.

In the Central part of the western edge of the map – the area opposite Albuquerque, I send my scattering of forces forward looking to see what Ben has in the area and find the defences stronger than expected but I have been sending my mechanized reinforcements up near this part of the front before sending them to the North West recently and what I hope to do here is try and wipe out Ben’s small forces in the area with these forces before I continue pushing north. Part of this is because I still have a small hope of capturing enough to maybe get a draw but I would need Albuquerque and the 9 point Los Alamos National Lab to be a part of that. I also realize when I am doing this that it is not Chicago that Bens armies are retreating toward in the north west but the Allied minor supply point at Santa Fe.

Illinois does not work out nearly so well as I would have hoped. Not sure where Ben finds the reserves but he closes the gap I had blown in the front and even manages to counter attack which surrounds and destroys one of my Panzer Divisions. I spend my turn trying to clean up the lines and get ready to maybe fall back onto the defence – though I have another new Panzer Division arriving in the area shortly so maybe a more limited attack?

On the East Coast I am getting very concerned. Utterly burnt out forces just manage to take Hartford Again. I still doubt I hold it and I can’t keep this up. I have to rest the Panzers and a lot of my infantry here is just barely holding on. I’m actually starting to look very vulnerable to an Allied counter attack.

After all of that we break even in terms of the spread on losses for the turn but now it is turn 70 and the Allied Replacement rate shoots skyward well over 100%. Meanwhile it is looking like I desperately need to halt offencive operations on most of the fronts to resupply my armies. Despite the continued arrival of powerful Axis forces on the map it is getting pretty doubtful I can handle the Allied capacity to simply replace any losses they have taken.

Allied Production Boost: 135%

Axis Overview Turn 70 in the East

Axis Overview Turn 70p1.jpg (4.58 MiB) Viewed 1849 times

Axis Overview Turn 70 in the West

Axis Overview Turn 70p2.jpg (689.71 KiB) Viewed 1849 times

[golden delicious]

Illinois does not work out nearly so well as I would have hoped. Not sure where Ben finds the reserves

I think these are simply units that moved off the line on turn 68 to be withdrawn and then moved back onto the line in response to you blowing it open.

[golden delicious]

Turn 70:
A firm but not unshakeable hold on Hartford. A good turn would see me get it back- were my armour not severely disrupted, with the three best divisions in reorganisation and a fourth split between two hexes. Well, we'll give it a go, and I add a couple of good divisions from further north on the line to the attack here, but I think I need to focus on not losing anything more. I start my evacuation of New Hampshire and Vermont, but this goes quite badly, with a number of disengagement attacks, leaving a couple of brigades so far forward that I can only pull the line back two hexes. Despite problems elsewhere, I direct three good divisions to this front from other parts of the map.

Jeremy's offensive in Illinois continued, but I don't think there's much steam left in this after I kicked him back last turn, and I'll continue to kick him around mainly with the Canadians this turn until this can be stabilised. As hoped, the Axis offensive in Wyoming has also lost steam, but this area is still dangerous, so I will stage a fighting retreat here, counterattacking exposed Axis units while pulling away where I can. Strategically, this means pulling off to the west, opening up the gap between this body and the main front, while edging away from the Axis supply sources and toward the only nearby objective, Salt Lake City.

The situation in northern California also continues to develop. I think Jeremy panicked as three airborne divisions showed up here this turn, shutting down the possibility of a decisive counteroffensive from me, but more alarming is the arrival by sea of a stack of four fresh Japanese divisions at Eureka [the peculiarities of war here that a move Jeremy made by mistake turns out to make me especially nervous], which will fall next turn and then these units will turn north toward Oregon. I move a division to block this route but it may not be enough. This turn, however, I have good results and despite the airborne troops present a number of broken down Japanese regiments are destroyed.

Other results were fairly muted- but I did managed to struggle back into Hartford, for what I'm sure must be the last time. The other looming disaster may be in New Mexico, where I perhaps overconfidently jumped on a number of Axis mobile divisions which my small Mexican force here, destroying one security division, routing the German cavalry and generally having a good time. There's a full strength panzergrenadier division here, but it's out of supply now. I expect to get a pounding on Jeremy's turn, but I brought two more divisions of Irregulars up from western Mexico so can maybe keep this going a while. Anyway, I have absolutely buckets of irregular squads and light rifle squads, so these units will keep reconstituting for a while.

138% replacements- at least according to the "official" rate for the Heavy MG. I'm relying on that to keep Jeremy from causing an upset here.

FG70a.png (669.51 KiB) Viewed 1832 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 71
Here I can see the overall strategic situation beginning to turn quite bleak. It is not actually a bad turn but the loss rate shifts heavily in Ben’s favour even though my loss rate stays the same. Essentially we are now really beginning to see the absolutely overwhelming Allied Production Capacity. The Allied Loss Rate just starts dropping.

The Japanese suffer a bit while being pushed back in the north though I have actually freed up a supply point near the front in the north. The Japanese Tank Divisions have shown up as well which might allow me to try for some kind of advance toward the south though Japanese Tank Divisions are tiny and full of really crappy tanks so we shall see – also they just are not a priority in terms of what I am landing. The SS Panzer Corp shows up as well and getting that ashore essentially takes priority.

On the western flank opposite Albuquerque Ben pushes forward pulling off a flanking move that cuts a number of my units out of supply but this allows me to eliminate the most forward Irregular Division. Both of us are bringing up reinforcements but I have much more powerful forces moving into the area though I hope to win this and get them out again quickly.

In the North West Ben is essentially taking up defensive positions while my attacks are extremely limited as I am trying to resupply my forces out here before making another try for an advance.

Illinois is a bit of a back and forth but I think Ben is gaining the upper hand here. I can’t fight for long without my Infantry Divisions being rendered unfit for combat and my being forced back onto the defensive. I just don’t have enough Panzers here to really make much of a sustained push.

The East Coast remains an absolute brutal blood bath but I desperately have to shut this front down for most of my units. I have loads of Panzers here but they are mostly at 1% supply and badly need time to refit. I keep pushing only because we are trading Hartford back and forth and I really want the Industrial City. A New SS Panzer Division landed here this turn and I took the city so hopefully I can keep it. Thing is no matter what happens I am in trouble here. I have to stop to refit… but Ben grows much stronger then me every turn.

The slow Axis advance in the north might be more significant then the brutal back and forth over Hartford

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[golden delicious]

Turn 71:
No nasty surprises from Jeremy last turn. Even the most obvious catastrophe- the loss of my Mexicans around Albuquerque- failed to come to pass as Jeremy just gobbled up one odd division and otherwise left me unscathed. I'm going to take a punt at cutting off the German cavalry division- exposed and linked to the main force by one panzergrenadier brigade, and otherwise focus on not getting everything killed. There's a lot of German mechanised divisions here at the moment and so that might be a tall order, and I need to hold here until turn 74 ideally when I'm due the next National Guard Army in New Mexico. I rail three more Mexican divisions into Albuquerque.

After last turn's debacle, I conclude the withdrawal from the New Hampshire salient without any further difficulty, establishing a short, strong line across the upper Hudson, linked directly to my longstanding positions on the lower St. Lawrence. Jeremy hasn't aggressively followed up here and I expect he will take the opportunity to shorten his own line instead of opening a new front. I release a few divisions from here and I like to imagine this is the nucleus of the Minneapolis forces as I now have two good Commonwealth divisions behind the line, and can try to extract more from Illinois. Hartford is again taken by the Axis but last turn's reorganising armour is now nicely reorganised so I have a powerful strike force ready to go in here; I do however have to be careful as the unit density here is becoming extreme and I don't want to get caught out.

I'm continuing with my strategy of shifting westwards in Wyoming; this allows me to launch some modest counterattacks on the weak, exposed Italians while dodging the worst attentions of Jeremy's panzer troops and moving further from his supply lines (though he seems to have rail troops all over the map). I'm able to string a good line together through the hills in this part of the state, while putting most of my armour out on the northern flank to deal with any small raids north, and separating the National Guard to fight the Italians out to the west. This is fairly successful, with one division cut off and destroyed and a number of other units given a good pummeling.

The Hartford see-saw goes another turn. I keep thinking each one will be the last but so far this hasn't come to pass. Jeremy is moving closer to Albany further north- but I have lots of guys behind the line here after my withdrawal. Between here, Illinois and California I've pulled four Commonwealth divisions and six HQs back to the rail and this should be enough for me to jump on Minneapolis next turn. I'm tempted to bring up US artillery too, if I can, and hit both the city itself and the adjacent corner hex (using units already on the line) at the same time rather than in a one-two, and present Jeremy with a fait accompli that can't be reversed- at least not until I have my reinforcements. I can then disperse these guys back to where they came from. One thing that didn't come off is my attack in New Mexico, which just bounced off, but I was able to tidy the situation up a bit by routing the cavalry division frontally. This, plus the terrain, should be enough to prevent the whole force going into Jeremy's bag next turn, but I need to bring some real troops down here to go toe-to-toe with the panzergrenadiers (of which there are at least four divisions in the area) at some point. If things remain manageable on the other fronts this should be achievable.

... looking at my backlogged reinforcements, the other offensive that appeals (if I can find the units) is out of Asheville, NC in the direction of Charleston. There must be about eight divisions in this area and the Axis line here is pretty thin.

A calmer situation in Wyoming as the Allies make an orderly withdrawal

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 72
Ben and I seem to be in something of a back and forth stalemate at the moment. Despite a weak point on the West Coast Ben does not really push far here.

In the South East (near Albuquerque) I am mildly surprised that significant Mexican Reinforcements are being sent to the area. Admittedly this means Ben is tying down excellent forces of mine. If I can convert this into dead Mexicans I can live with this but it is not much of a turn for either of use here as we both try to cut off the other but fail. It is worse for me as I have better equipment in the area and ultimately nothing happening benefits Ben.

In the North West things are progressing though hardly all that quickly. Ben pulls back in some parts of the line and I shove forward in the centre somewhat. I am a little happier however because very large numbers of my forces are in fact off the line resupplying so if I can make ground even before I go for a larger push then maybe I can actually start to get somewhere. A huge caveat here, however, is it is starting to get to be really hard to see what I am truly going to get even if this works because we are down to a mere 18 turns left in the game. Still – if by some miracle I could advance and connect with San Francisco there just might be enough time to capture Los Angeles which would surely result in a draw.

Illinois is very much a back and forth but here I am actually aiming mainly to straighten out the line. While out on the East Coast Ben and I keep trading Hartford back and forth. Ben has shortened the line here which will give him more Divisions to work with but it does the same for me as well so I am not complaining to much. I was feeling very short on Divisions to backstop my line – My Infantry does not recover well at this point in the match so this will help. I also manage to get a bunch of the Panzers off the line to start a refit.

As a side note German Jet Fighters are starting to arrive and I noticed that they have been really dishing it out. For a long time now the Allied Mustangs have been the best plane in the sky and here I think I have regained something of a qualitive edge. That said there just are not many jet fighters and I would think that with the replacement rate so high Ben might eventually be able to attrition things down. That this has yet to really take place surprises me. I think it is partly a function of the size of the map. The reality is a lot of the time we just are not within range of the combats.

[Edit: My analysis of what is happening in the sky is not correct. Here I am assuming Ben has loads of replacements, but my understanding is that he never really did]

Loss Rate: Axis: 411 / Allies: 351 / Spread: -60

Axis forces in the Deserts of the American South West struggle to defeat weak but numerous Allied forces facing them

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[golden delicious]

Turn 72:
Another fairly light one from Jeremy. My first move is to set up the Minneapolis liberation army as planned, as there's no fatal threats that prevent me from doing so, and I'm even able to comfortably drop in the US artillery I'd planned, allowing me to make this an international effort and hopefully sieze the city in one turn. I also start work on my Asheville force; I'm naturally pulling good infantry off the line here and replacing with various odds and sods, but instead of railing them off I leave them in-situ: this gives me a strike force without an obvious build up, as well as saving on rail lift. For this turn, I rail one newly reconstituted armoured division here; this gives me a start of turn 76 or so for this offensive. I'll find more units to add in the interim; I seem to have a lot of armoured divisions around now that the panic is over but it's a matter of finding the rail lift for them.

Otherwise it's business as usual. In Wyoming, I'm pivoting, to run a north-south defensive line through the difficult terrain in northwestern Colorado and block the direct route to Salt Lake. In New England, I dig in on my new lines while (again) retaking Hartford. The one difficult spot is Illinois, where Jeremy hasn't given up his offensive yet and I'm not able to shift his lead panzer division, but I have US armour in reserve here that can sit behind the threatened portion of the line. I think the strategic question for me is how far can I afford to ignore Jeremy in the west. Eventually, he'll reach the east-west rail line in Montana which is currently my main conduit for transiting troops across the continent, but this is at least twelve hexes from the nearest Axis unit, and I think his focus remains on fixing my force in battle in the open and destroying it, which I'm determined to deny him by continuing to withdraw west- Salt Lake is even further away behind much ferocious terrain. I'll need to keep some sort of force out on the wide open north flank here- currently two armoured divisions and two regiments- to keep odd pieces from sneaking across the rail line here.

Feels like things are quiet again, which is nice. I think Jeremy's strategy is to squeeze me in the west and try to pull as much of my army over this way as possible whilst threatening the east-west links so I can't easily transfer units. Besides the moves in Wyoming and New Mexico, he's also made a number of bridge strikes out in the west which, if anything, are targeted at cutting the rail supply to northern California. However there's a secure, bridgeless link from the supply point at LA all the way to just north of Yreka so I'm not sure how he's going to manage this. Maybe an airdrop? [As I understand it these bridge attacks are just a mechanic for Jeremy to cheaply get loads of rounds by exploiting a flaw in the way this is calculated in TOAW IV]

Schematic of Allied rail lines between Minnesota and Los Angeles, with anticipated Axis threats shown as yellow arrows. Note that there is no alternative route which does not pass through the Salt Lake City / Las Vegas bottleneck: Axis incursions anywhere along this line would prevent troop transfers between the southwest and the rest of the map. Los Angeles is a supply point so this wouldn't threaten the supply situation of these forces, but it would certainly complicate the military situation for the Allies. Even an advance to Anaconda, Montana (second junction directly north of Salt Lake) would involve a mass increase in the travel time as troops would need to divert via Walla Walla, WA.

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[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Schematic of Allied rail lines between Minnesota and Los Angeles, with anticipated Axis threats shown as yellow arrows. Note that there is no alternative route which does not pass through the Salt Lake City / Las Vegas bottleneck: Axis incursions anywhere along this line would prevent troop transfers between the southwest and the rest of the map. Los Angeles is a supply point so this wouldn't threaten the supply situation of these forces, but it would certainly complicate the military situation for the Allies. Even an advance to Anaconda, Montana (second junction directly north of Salt Lake) would involve a mass increase in the travel time as troops would need to divert via Walla Walla, WA.

Ben's essentially right about my thoughts in the North West. Ideally I would love to connect with the Japanese but by this point I know that is very unlikely. However while Salt Lake City has great terrain if it can be flanked it can be cut off. You have to break out behind Great Salt Lake to cut a rail line. That said I think if you just cut the rail link back here then no supply flows over the Lake hex - so you don't necessarily have to hold in the rear just raid. If one managed that then the defending armies would be cut from supply and could be crushed. My reading was that Salt Lake City can turn into a trap.

More importantly cut the key bottleneck and it is very hard for the Allies to reinforce Los Angeles. Los Angeles has a supply point but my last offencive cleared the supply point but failed to advance into the hex. In other words its not unreachable if only I can somehow tip the odds down here in my favour. I've been slowly shifting Japanese Divisions back to San Fransisco for resupply, the Japanese armies are larger then ever and I received 4 new Japanese Armoured Divisions which might help with advancing against American Armour. So I believe that if I can just cut the rail link maybe my Japanese can just wear the defenders out enough to take Los Angeles and San Diego.

Wiping out a lot of Allied Divisions would go a long way to possibly getting me at least into a position to make this a draw and this area remains something of a weak link in Ben's line. Illinois is always well defended and its a long way to anywhere useful. I don't win a war of attrition either. Advances in the confined areas of the North East have been a major effort by me as well but here things have mostly been a blood bath with Hartford swapping owners every turn for many turns.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 73
The situation grew quitter for both of us this turn. What really stuck out on Ben’s turn is that he stripped units from all over the map and gathered them just north of Minneapolis. I suspect he is preparing another Allied counter offencive. My defences out here are not great but they could actually have been worse. Last turn I started shifting loose brigades back this way primarily from out of the North West. My plan had been to resupply them and then swap out with the full Divisions I have in the area but with Ben threatening an attack I redeploy them to start working on a double line south of Minneapolis and I call for some more forces to rail into the area.

Ben’s attacks on the West Coast trickled down to just a few very minor pushes. Ben has been withdrawing some units off that front. I am also taking up primarily defencive positions now that the northern part of the map is closed up. However, I have also been getting reinforcements and bringing units back to San Francisco to resupply and hope to restart an offencive in the south toward Los Angeles again soon.

Ben does not manage to get anything of mine on the South West Front but my own operations start off looking pretty positive but I suffered early turn ending at the 50% point of the turn so I can’t exploit anything I had going on either. I’m a bit nervous that the early turn ending might allow Ben to find and exploit something over here as well.

Illinois looks like the front where Ben has most reduced his offensive while I continue with a limited version of one here. That said with it looking like a major attack is going to occur further to the West my own attacks here are likely to become much smaller as well as I need to divert at least some Panzers and Heavy Armour out toward Ben’s next offencive and, as usual, I really quickly realize I can’t sustain any kind of attack here using the Infantry.

Out on the East Coast it is still a back and forth over Hartford but the early turn ending pretty much insures Ben should have no real difficulty throwing me back. My own attacks continue to degrade as well. Even more Panzers desperately need to refit and the ones already in refit still have 3 or so turns to go before they are fit to be recommitted. I am simply having a very difficult time maintaining my attacks enough to make my offensive stick.

Meanwhile I am eyeing the Caribbean Islands. Normally these areas are pretty much ignored but I am no longer playing for a win but actually think that a draw might well be attainable. There are 21 VPs in the Caribbean Islands and that is actually a significant number.

[Edit: I don't really call it out at the time but here we see another Fall Grau lull as the scenario seems to naturally go through a cycle of dips and peaks of activity after one passes the halfway point of the match.]

The Japanese Army in the south has slowly been resupplied.

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[golden delicious]

Turn 73:
Not too bad. Jeremy reacted to my massing forces at Minneapolis by preparing a second line and apparently trying (and failing) to extract the strongest division. Since all I want is the city- requiring me to take a total of two hexes- this is absolutely fine- though of course I'm happy to make a show of trying to get further.

I'm continuing to build up in the southeast, hoping this looks like odds and sods railing down to rest on the line like normal, but this is now up to four armoured divisions and four infantry divisions- though half the armour won't be ready for several turns; I'd like to kick this off as soon as possible but I'm happy to have these guys as follow on forces. I'll add more troops next turn (in particular artillery) and kick off on turn 75. I've selected the upper Santee as my offensive zone as the Axis are occupying the river hexes here, which puts them at a disadvantage, and the terrain is otherwise less rugged than around Asheville.

More business as usual elsewhere; we continue to trade Hartford back and forth, the Mexicans are still dancing with panzergrenadiers outside Albuquerque- two more turns until I get my next National Guard army in this area. In Wyoming, Jeremy seems to have pulled some of his panzers back to rest. Whether this is in anticipation of my success in Minnesota or simply because he's outrun his supply lines here I don't know, but I'm content for this turn to dig in on my existing positions rather than pull back further, while harassing the Italians further south.

The show starts to look like turning into the real deal. I SMASH the Axis line at Minneapolis and am able to get into the rear of part of it, destroying a good German brigade outright and putting two clear hexes between the city which was my only objective and the nearest German unit. This should send Jeremy into overdrive and I'll have to keep this going- but it will remain a diversion for my main offensive in the southeast; I expect Jeremy will be able to solidify his position long before I can get to anything else of value. I can, however, add the troops which arrive here next turn to the offensive, although they'll be low on supply initially.

I feel like I'm finally getting into the killer Allied offensive phase of the scenario- having waited a really long time for it and then having it delayed by losing fifteen divisions in Wyoming. Ideally, I can keep the push going in Minnesota and simultaneously kick things off in the Carolinas. Then Jeremy really will be under critical strain and I can start to see things falling to pieces. Overrunning the southeast and doing a bit of damage to the German army should be enough for "significant victory"- I'm 100 points off it at the moment. The other thing would be to push for Mexico City which is worth 50 points on its own. This turn, the first troops in Central America FINALLY reached 100% supply and so start the long journey to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, but this force will be hopelessly anaemic on its own and I'd need to send something from Guadalajara as well to make this work.

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