Lunacy in the Pacific: Mogami vs. Oleg

[Oleg Mastruko]

ORIGINAL: Mogami
The Allies have withdrawn from airwar. (after heavy loss)

"Heavy loss" is a bit of exaggeration. But yes, I have withdrawn from pissing contest in the air over China, as my losses were consistently higher than his for some days in a row (still, losses were overall much much lower than 100-some aircraft lost daily by both sides on opening days of China air campaign so I didn't even report them). Don't worry I will be back. I had more fresh air units to feed to battle too. Just saw no point in being pigheaded right now. I think I am still barely under 2:1 in air losses (something like 1100:570), which is not that bad.

It's 8th March and not much happened elsewhere. His mega Godjira army in China (not-so-mega since he left baby Godjira to guard Sian) is at Wuhan. Seems I correctly predicted he will turn his attention towards Changsha. But Changsha is not Hsinyang nor Homan. I have tons of units there, enough HQ support, and - should I say that? - most of units prepped 100 for the place (whenever I left Changsha earlier, I still kept my units prepped for Changsha). So, he's free to try. In the meantime Soviet dudes are busy building forts and exchanging their fighters for better types....

Hsinyang units have rebuilt.... overall EXP for China guys is quite high, but morale is a bit of a problem, especialy for units retreating towards Chunking, by the way of auto shock river attacks [:D]

I will be going on business trip next week. I hope to play daily turns but it depends on schedule, and connectivity on location...

O.

[Oleg Mastruko]

OK, *finally* a new update here, since I am finally back from the trip. It was hectic and chaotic and even though I did carry a laptop I managed only a turn or two.

It's 13th March, Manila still holds, not much happened lately. In China, situation looks stabilised (at least to a degree). He has 42 units in Wuhan, but I have quite enough in Changsha, behind level 9 fort, so he's welcome to try. Ichang is evacuated some time ago (as explained in previous posts) and I see one IJA unit getting there, presumably to take the place.

O.

[Oleg Mastruko]

He took (empty) Ichang. He's launching massive airstrikes vs. Manila in preparation for another round of attacks:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Manila , at 43,52

Japanese aircraft
C5M Babs x 5
Ki-21 Sally x 88
Ki-49 Helen x 53

No Japanese losses


Allied ground losses:
66 casualties reported

Port hits 21
Port fuel hits 5
Port supply hits 13

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
15 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
20 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
8 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 10000 feet
14 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 10000 feet
8 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
14 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 10000 feet
6 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
6 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
9 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 10000 feet
2 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
3 x Ki-49 Helen bombing at 10000 feet

[Oleg Mastruko]

18th March - Manila forts are down to zero.


AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 03/17/42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Manila

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 363434 troops, 3556 guns, 519 vehicles

Defending force 64923 troops, 452 guns, 157 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 4)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0


Japanese ground losses:
11729 casualties reported
Guns lost 298
Vehicles lost 26

Allied ground losses:
2511 casualties reported
Guns lost 51
Vehicles lost 1

City still holds, but with forts down to 0 now it's only a matter of days. I hope his forces will need some days to actually take the city and then at least a week of recovery before they are able to attack elsewhere. Manila bought what time it could.....

In USSR, this time is used well. Today I upgraded another fighter division from Polikarpovs to Yaks or LaGGs (don't remember which) thus releasing enough Polis back to pool to help fill out remaining Polikarpov units. I also upgraded another bomber unit from SB-2s to much much better Petlyakovs. Soviet airforce looks like a really formidable machine now, with swarms of fighters. Borzya is level 5 airfield going to 6 soon behind level 9 fort.... Blagoveschensk and Vlad are level 8 (here's some free intel for Mog).

I think Soviet attack is out of the question for Mog now, but since I am still not 100% sure every fort level, and every new air upgrade is very welcome. What else are Soviets to do if not build forts and train fighters anyway? If he attacks we'll see some real fireworks in the air...

IJN sub I-18 sunk today after receiving heavy damage couple days ago, during conwoy attack on the Hawaii-West Coast route. Scoring 11 VPs, I-18 is second highest IJN naval loss to date (there was one big 12 VP AP). This goes to show how quiet the naval part of the war has been so far.

Elsewhere is quiet. I guess we'll see real show couple weeks after Manila falls and after Mog decides where's he going to use Luzon army (or armies).

Oleg

[Oleg Mastruko]

Game is continued (I read in some other thread Mog was to stop his games because of Thanksgiving).

It is 03/22/42

He is continuing bombardments in Manila hex, in preparation for what will most probably be final assault [:(]

Ground combat at Manila

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 6504 troops, 228 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 59657 troops, 360 guns, 147 vehicles



Allied ground losses:
291 casualties reported
Guns lost 2

There is simply no way I can do anything to help Manila now....

He also started marginal campaign in the Gilberts (Tarawa & co.)

Ground combat at Apamama

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 566 troops, 5 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 23 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Apamama base !!!

[Oleg Mastruko]

25th March and Manila fell today....

I don't have combatreport to post but not much to see there anyway, he atacked, got 12:1 and eliminated all defenders, capturing the place in the process.

My army losses went up for 900-some points.

Now, comments with hindsight...

In my game Manila fell some 3,5 weeks earlier than in Mog's game vs Tom Hunter - I hope it will not make my position much worse in the long run, as in most other aspects our lunacy games are very much different (with Nomad's being yet more different than ours).

What would I have done differently in Manila? Well... There is one PA division that appears as reinforcement some weeks after the game starts in Bataan. I never managed to get this division to Manila, as they were blocked in Clark hex by some small IJA unit. Knowing what I know now, I would not abandon Clark this easy. His forces north of Manila (including Clark) were very small - just couple SNLF-sized units. I should have kept Clark with couple PA divs until I get Bataan division as reinforcement, and then retreat all of them to Manila. Having this unit in Manila instead of Bataan would have bought me a week or so I guess?

Also, with hindsight, I would use Manila transports to *immediatelly* bring PA divisions from Cebu and other smaller Phillipine islands to Manila ASAP. This is my first serious game as Allies and I was very conservative with PPs. As it is, I spent almost no PPs by mid-February (certainly much less than other Allied lunatics). Knowing what I know now, I would spend PPs to make Cebu & co divisions transportable, and would bring them to Manila.

One thing that Tom did much better than me was running blockade runners to Manila. I tried that, but after some initiall success he sunk every single one of them, so I simply stopped sending them by early February.

Mog already described his blunder, in that he was thinking Manila will fall easy, so he changed the Prep location for some Manila units too early. This mistake was very costly for him.

My final comments... I think in future "lunacy" attempts (lunacy here being the word for any unhistorically aggresive, AV-oriented Jap strategy) IJN player must find way to bypass Luzon totally, and leave it for some future operation.

Oleg

[Oleg Mastruko]

OK time for another update. 3rd April 42.

Reason I post these updates much more rarely than Tom in his lunacy game is because he posts about his plans. Since this is free for all thread I don't want to post about my plans, so I merely function as historian/reporter writing about operations post facto. Also, I pick my battles much more carefully than Tom (which shows in out respective losses, see "Lunacy games" thread) so there's less to report.

Since Manila fell on 25th March not much happened. I continue to build forts and bases accross the map, and upgrade stuff.

On 1st April Mog lost another, very useful IJN bonus that is very rarely if ever commented on the board, and that is amphib invasion bonus +200 for IJN up to March 42 (page 99 of the manual [;)])

From now on, every opposed landing is going to be harder for the Japanese.

What he did in last couple weeks is he parked several large TFs, apparently with KB, two hexes from Canton island, and is doing small FT invasions in Gilberts and Solomons. I guess KB is near Canton to stop me from interfering with his small invasions? No other reason for this huge force to stay two hexes from Canton island for weeks.

I sent some Il-4s to recon Manila from China and they still report 35 units there, od 2nd April (he had IIRC 42 at the peak of his Manila efforts). Since some units were redirected to deal with Bataan:

Ground combat at Bataan

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 21322 troops, 189 guns, 5 vehicles

Defending force 4915 troops, 104 guns, 0 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 3)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0


Japanese ground losses:
143 casualties reported
Guns lost 5
Vehicles lost 1

Allied ground losses:
22 casualties reported
Guns lost 1


...I guess it's safe to say none of the Manila attackers has left the Luzon so far. After some R&R for these guys, Mogami will have to load them on APs and play his hand. I have some forces available for limited offensive action, but I'll wait for him to play his hand, and then I'll play mne.

Picture shows Mog small invasions in south Pacific, under cover of huge force near Canton island.

[mogami]

Hi, I don't pay any attention to these threads. I am going to do what I am going to do.
Against TH I am going to capture Noumea (or see the entire IJN/IJA destroyed in the process) I want him to pile in as much Allied war material and manpower as he can fit.
I've even stopped interdicting traffic there so I don't scare him too much.
Against Oleg I'm going to find where he wants to fight and go there. I'm going to take bases in both games where they let me. And I'm going to bring the entire ranch to where they don't want me. It is not a race. 1 Jan 1943 is the finish line but to get there I don't have to run.

Now I'm going to go drink beer at Bears house (he wants to play Steel Panthers) See you tomorrow.

[Oleg Mastruko]

No great news in this game - it's 9th April... I already posted in Tom's lunacy thread that his game must be billion times more interesting than mine. I do all I can to sedate the game, and win by boring-ness LOL

Well, considering my strategy is in this aspect totally opposite of Tom's I think I am doing my sedating straegy pretty well... even though it makes this AAR not nearly as interesting as Tom's (it will have to change one way or another).

Anyway, what's with the third Lunacy game, vs Nomad, where Mog invaded SU? Mog or Nomad if you're reading this give us an update...

OK... so Mog continued his easy fast transport invasions of South Pacific islands, which I do not defend, and have evacuated some time ago. I think Pago Pago was the last one. For all I care he can invade all the way to Peru or Chile if he wants I have no use for those bases - not for now at least.

Other theatres are quiet, except for the sound of heavy engineering machinery, building various stuff... Except for my little air adventure in China in mid February, we were inactive in the air, so I managed to build very impressive 4E force to be available where I decide. His air losses are couple planes per day in the last month or so (he had to bomb Manila, and after Manila fell switched to occasional bomb runs over Singapore and Wuchow - little by little AAA and operational losses mount, especially so since he uses mega-crap aircraft like Mary and Ann for those marginal bombing runs.

BTW Singapore stil holds. He sent some units there to achieve 1:1 but didn't attack further than that, nor he reinforced. What I have there is no longer secret: two Malaya brigades, Malaya HQ, and Singapore fortress. This is my usual strategy: Malaya units should defend Malaya right? I hate 100% evacuations they make IJN job too easy. I also don't think defending in force would be smart as they would all die there, so I pick the middle road, leaving Malaya units in Malaya and evac-ing the others elsewhere.

Oleg

[Oleg Mastruko]

BTW I saw Mog opened his own lunacy thread here on AAR forum....

I won't go there unless he invites me and says it's OK to look - man deserves his little privacy and ability to discuss plans with IJN fanboy club [:D] So, don't assume I have read something he posted there, because I won't.

O.

[rtrapasso]

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

BTW I saw Mog opened his own lunacy thread here on AAR forum....

I won't go there unless he invites me and says it's OK to look - man deserves his little privacy and ability to discuss plans with IJN fanboy club [:D] So, don't assume I have read something he posted there, because I won't.

O.

Right - first thing he does on his thread is to warn you and Tom Hunter off.

As for Nomad - iirc, he was also playing against PzB when he announced he was having terminal problems with his Internet Service Provider, and was expected to be out of business for the foreseable future (1+ years).

[Oleg Mastruko]

ORIGINAL: rtrapasso

As for Nomad - iirc, he was also playing against PzB when he announced he was having terminal problems with his Internet Service Provider, and was expected to be out of business for the foreseable future (1+ years).

[X(] Why would he need 1+ years to change ISP?

O.

[rtrapasso]

[X(] Why would he need 1+ years to change ISP?

I have no idea. I assume he is locked into the one he has by contract or lease or somesuch, but i didn't ask (he seemed quite upset about it!) He seemed to be having increasing problems, and couldn't get any satisfaction about it, and didn't have the resources to call in someone independent to fix it.

[Oleg Mastruko]

Combat reports in our game lately look like this:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 04/10/42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Air attack on Singapore Fortress, at 23,50

Japanese aircraft
Ki-30 Ann x 15
Ki-21 Sally x 17

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-30 Ann: 3 destroyed, 9 damaged


Allied ground losses:
1 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Aircraft Attacking:
17 x Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet
9 x Ki-30 Ann bombing at 2000 feet
3 x Ki-30 Ann bombing at 2000 feet

...or like this:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 04/11/42

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 11 troops unloading over beach at Tongatapu Island, 94,114


Japanese ground losses:
31 casualties reported

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TF 11 troops unloading over beach at Tongatapu Island, 94,114


Japanese ground losses:
22 casualties reported


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Tongatapu Island

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 1787 troops, 7 guns, 0 vehicles

Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles

Japanese assault odds: 98 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Tongatapu Island base !!!

...or like this:

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 04/12/42

Those were three complete combat reports (this last one was emty ie nothing happened that day) so you get the picture how I sedated this game - for the moment at least, and I consider it a success. Days of IJN amphib bonus are over, it's mid April soon the days of Zero bonus and Brit no-upgrade limit will be over too.

But it's not going to be quiet for very long...

His First Mega Godjira Army (FMGA) in China is on the move again - 43 units are on the march from Wuhan to Changsha, 11 are still in Wuhan I guess they will be following too. Changsha is, I think, ready to receive this onslaught.

There are still ~40 units in Manila so according to my intel he didn't move a single unit from Luzon since he took Manila (20 days ago). But he ammassed ~150 transports there so I guess the move of this "Second Gojira Army" (SGA) is imminent. Where will they go?

There is slight possibility they will move towards China too, which could make things really interesting (in China, but elsewhere too). Personally I would use them on Noumea or Hawaii, as I don't think China is road to victory for Japanese but who knows?

Russia is so strong now I really think it would be foolish to try to attack them. I don't say it's entirely impossible (hard to tell), especially if he combines FMGA and SGA, but if Russia is still his goal, it would be much smarter if he attacked there earlier (while USSR airforce was shadow of what it is now).

Oleg

[Oleg Mastruko]

*yawn* 21st April. He *still* has 40+ units on Luzon. Average combatreports have couple hundered *bytes* (that's right bytes not kilobytes).

His FMGA went back to Wuhan - obviously realizing they can't take Changsha from me, without even trying. Yes I'd agree... with almost 7000 APs behind level 9 fort and at least 2000 APs at hand as reinforcements Changsha is practically unconquerable. What's more important those Chinese units have EXP in mid 50s, which makes them respectable opponents.

Hey I hoped he'll launch at least one shock attack and lose....

He left 9 units in Wuhan, others proceeded further north. Where? I don't know, and I don't care. Nothing there can hurt me.... I wrote off North China after my defeat at Sian, and there's nothing north of Chungking that would make me cry.

Sleep in the Pacific continues.... Since attack on Changsha is a no go, that also means using Luzon army in China is no go as well. Where is he going to use massive Luzon army? And why does he wait for so long before using them?? Wake me up if you find out...

O.

[rtrapasso]

Where is he going to use massive Luzon army? And why does he wait for so long before using them?? Wake me up if you find out...

Mog just reported on his thread that he has taken San Francisco, but you haven't noticed because of the replay bug!!!










Just kidding![:'(] Are you awake now??[>:]

[Oleg Mastruko]

LOL yes I am... [:D]

[Oleg Mastruko]

OK time for another UPDATE. This game is very much ALIVE it's just very SLOW.

Yes I am YELLING so as to awake the sleepy audience LOL [:D]

1st May. All IJN bonuses gone, British upgrade restriction lifted - ahhhh, time to breath new air of spring with full lungs!!

April was among the slowest, most sedated months I have ever seen since I started playing UV - and this I consider my success. On the last day of April Singapore fell - I had two Malay brigades there and he didn't use much troops either - just what he needed to take the city after 2-3 shock attacks. I evacuated cadres of Malay units so as to try to rebuild them in India.

Last ten days of April were slowest of the slow. He even stopped taking South Pacific islands and atolls (could be because he took them all already I didn't care to check LOL)

My recon reveals unit count in Manila slowly going down. It was 43 at peak of his Manila efforts in mid March, then it went to ~35 as he used some units for mop up operations in PI (Cebu, Iloilo and elsewhere) and now it's ~28. I believe some units from PI were used in his final assault on Singapore, so, if I am not miscalculating somewhere, I more or less have solid idea where all his massive troop concentrations are. I DON't think he has like 3-4 divisions worth of troops siling somewhere to surprise me. Not right now at least.

I lost his Chinese mega army, though, but they can't leave the continent without paying PPs. They can go to Russia (extremely low probability) or somewhere in China. All places in China I care about are well defended though.

So... either he already switched to strategic defence, or he waits for me to make the first move, commit forces somewhere so that he can try to destroy them....

Oleg

[Oleg Mastruko]

Here the scoretable for May the 1st. I went into negative PPs because I said to Churchill and First Lord of Admiralty to sod off when asked to return BB + 2 DDs.

[Oleg Mastruko]

Japanese conquests.

Things to have on mind...

Burma is almost empty. He didn't take whole of Sumatra (in fact he took only Palembang + base or two). Singapore fell yesterday. noumea, Fiji and Wake are "unclaimed" as of yet.

Anything he didn't take, is either "unclaimed" (like Fiji, which he is free to take any day), or very well fortified and defended with mines, forts, air forces, CD units, or cannibalistic native tribes.

Mog's big troop concetrations (according to my intel, and strategic analysis):

- Huge army in Luzon, still there after taking Manila - question remains where will they go? But since they don't move for weeks, I may start doing something in the meantime, while those guys decide where to spend the rest of the war.

- Parts of Luzon army were used for mop up operations in PI recently, and/or to take Singapore (via Johore, Sing fell before some of those units engaged)

- There is VERY HUGE army somewhere in China. They can't go anywhere as I block the coastal road. He's free to try to break through, but he'll have to travel allll the waaaayyy round to even try, as I hold Changsha.

- Significant forces are concentrated in Bangkok, but for all I can see they're going nowhere fast.

- Other large troop concetrations - if any - are unknown to me (but I am not so stupid to believe there are none).

- KB location is unknown, as are locations of his major surface TFs. If this was roulette I'd bet KB is in Truk, just because that's where IJN players usually keep it when it has nothing to do [:D]

Comments?

O.