Notes from a Small Island

[Canoerebel]

12/6/44

Uruppu: It looks like Death Star will rendezvous with the ingressing TFs tomorrow.

[nicwb]

From that standpoint, the analogy is apt. "Grant" is poised outside Richmond; he's built up a tremendous base of operations (supply depot, etc.) at City Point; the enemy is still determined and crafty and able to fight and sting (in Erik's case, considerably more than Lee could). Right now it's December 1864. Grant is planning and building and accumulating, waiting for spring weather before applying the coup-de-grace.

Yes, but where is Sherman ? Don't you really need to have a Sherman poised to cut through "Georgia" ?

[Canoerebel]

Banks, Thomas, Hooker, and McPherson are out there fighting, but the press is focusing totally on the campaign in Virginia. Sherman is in charge of the Allied air forces.

[Canoerebel]

12/7/44

Uruppu: Land-based dive bombers used against the enemy garrison for the first time. I mainly did this to try to get a better measure on enemy AA, which was meager. Supply may be an issue now.

I used the dive bombers for a second reason that I'll explain in a few days or week, if I remember or you remind me.

I basically didn't use them for the most obvious purpose - targeting ground troops. I figured dug-in troops wouldn't be affected much.

The pilots here are mostly trained for naval bombing, but don't have terrible ground skills.

[Canoerebel]

12/7/44

Uruppu: Two of a half-dozen LBA raids vs. the ground troops and airfield. These two included B-29s, the first time I've used them in a ground-support campaign all game.

Like the SBDs, there were purposes other than "projected results" for using the B-29s. I did want to see how they perform against ground troops (meager, it seems). I also wanted ERik to see that the new -25 model is in theater. I don't plan to engage in strategic bombing for awhile, but he'll allocate his defenses prudently. And there's that other reason I'll mention at another time. The real reason.

Finally, I was nearly positive the Superforts wouldn't encounter enemy fighters over Uruppu. I didn't expect Erik to post any here, and good Allied fighters served in sweep and escort roles. I don't want to take big risks with the '29s right now.

[Canoerebel]

Allied bomber altitude was 7k, down from 9k previous turns. Flak encountered and damage taken was noticeably lighter than in the past.

[Canoerebel]

12/7/44

KB? and DS: Enemy TF icons over near Japan. Is that KB? I hope so, as it will help me plan.

It's challenging trying to get empties back home and to bring in heavily laden transports, all without undue risk or loss. This passes for supreme excitement and entertainment in my world.

It's like high school, when I was interested in butterflies, trees, weather, and history while all the other guys seemed to be drawn to football and the kinds of engines found in robust cars.

Sadly, the girls seemed more interested in those topoics too.

[Canoerebel]

12/7/44

Uruppu: Enemy garrison seems to take a solid hit during the Japanese bombardment phase. Is the ice beginning to crack? Maybe so.

But it doesn't need to crack too soon. I don't want Uruppu to fall - or begin to show signs of major failure - for another two weeks. In a pinch, at least one week.

It's interesting that to this point the Allied campaign has involved a single attack (prompted only by the imminent withdrawal of the two combat engineering units). The real work has been handled by the air force, the navy, and by landings triggering bombardments harmful to the Japanese.

I'm still leaning towards an attack in the next few days, only because the level 6 forts will require time to overcome, I think.

[Canoerebel]

12/7/44

Les Miserables: She was fatally damaged in the recent Japanese air assault at Uruppu, taking 98 FLT damage. I didn't scuttle her because the points aren't enough to justify it. Some days, she doesn't even make a single hex. But her FLT is going down and she might make Ketoi.

[Canoerebel]

12/7/44

KB or Not? Unfortunatley, the information isn't sufficient to make a definite call as to the nature of the enemy TFs near Japan. I'd say 50/50 it's KB, with the other 50 it might be stout combat TFs.

I'm pretty sure I can detach the egressers to proceed naked. The biggest decision is whether to keep DS intact or to split off the CVEs to escort the ingressers to Ketoi while the CVs deal with the possible threat.

[RangerJoe]

In my current game against the AI, the Scout suffered 95 points in flotation damage on her way to Manila from Hong Kong. She survived being escorted by another DD.

The Trenton had 95 flotation 3 hexes from Baker. I sent other Cls and DDs to escort her and she survived.

It can be done and I think it helps if at least one other vessel is present - at least you might save the Captain and crew, although only the Captain is important in game terms.

Keep up the good work at Uruppu, at least you have his attention there. Even marginally trained aircrew bombing will increase his fatigue and disruption. As the marching song in the Army goes: "Here we go again, same ol' s*** again!"

[Canoerebel]

With the increased Allied air attacks and the bombardment losses Japan suffered, Erik is probably certain the Allied army will attack again imminently. That may be spurring him to take chances to intervene.

For reasons I won't go into right now, I'm not anxious to attack at the moment, so I'll continue with the present program. In a few days or more, when DS is back on station, I might attack.

I think he'll expect the bombers to focus on Uruppu tomorrow, after I sent in the Superforts today. Instead, tomorrow the Allied air forces will focus on Shimishura Jima, to suppress the airfield and for other reasons.

[Canoerebel]

DS will remain together but will steam SW rather than towards Ketoi. Strike aircraft and escorting fighters re-set to range 7 (typically range 6 or less are used, which Erik probably knows).

The egressers are making a break for the Aleutians - some to rendezvous with a small combat TF that will serve as escort; a fair number will break at flank speed and proceed unprotected.

I don't think there will be a carrier clash but I think there's a fair chance Erik has come up with some way to intervene at Uruppu, possibly by bombing or bombarding to weaken the Allied army on what he probably thinks is the eve of attack. He may also use his air force heavily, hoping to ambush my raiding squadrons. Since I'm not anxious to reduce Uruppu, I have the luxury of not doing what he might expect in this particular case. Hence my air forces will focus on Shimishura and DS will take a course paralleling the Kuriles rather than closing on them.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

DS will remain together but will steam SW rather than towards Ketoi. Strike aircraft and escorting fighters re-set to range 7 (typically range 6 or less are used, which Erik probably knows).

The egressers are making a break for the Aleutians - some to rendezvous with a small combat TF that will serve as escort; a fair number will break at flank speed and proceed unprotected.

I don't think there will be a carrier clash but I think there's a fair chance Erik has come up with some way to intervene at Uruppu, possibly by bombing or bombarding to weaken the Allied army on what he probably thinks is the eve of attack. He may also use his air force heavily, hoping to ambush my raiding squadrons. Since I'm not anxious to reduce Uruppu, I have the luxury of not doing what he might expect in this particular case. Hence my air forces will focus on Shimishura and DS will take a course paralleling the Kuriles rather than closing on them.

It is fun trying to puzzle out what Eric is up to - he is inventive and devious, and not afraid to take risks. [&:]
What do you make of the lack of IJN subs for so long?. Could he have saved up for an all-in sub saturation effort in conjunction with whatever he has brewing off Japan?

[Canoerebel]

Erik's subs have taken a frightful beating, both during the early days of the invasion of Sikhalin Island and then when he threw them against Shikuka's defenses and mines in September. Every time his subs come near Allied ships, they get whacked. They have scored some hits but mainly they've just been sunk.

I think he's saving them for the right time and right place.

[Canoerebel]

Also, I think he's using some to lay mines and possibly to deliver supply.

[JohnDillworth]

Erik's subs have taken a frightful beating, both during the early days of the invasion of Sikhalin Island and then when he threw them against Shikuka's defenses and mines in September. Every time his subs come near Allied ships, they get whacked. They have scored some hits but mainly they've just been sunk.

I think he's saving them for the right time and right place.

If I recall you had mixed success against John III subs. You seem to be doing much better here. Good players both but I think John III knows how to get the absolute best out of each and every ship

[Canoerebel]

That's interesting input, John.

Erik uses his subs much, much differently than John did. Not particularly better; not particularly worse; just different.

At least from the point where we started the game on 3/1/1944., Erik has only used his subs in massed wolfpacks to head off Allied TF forays into his waters or to hurl them against Shikuka's defenses. With the exception of an occasional sub scouting in the Gulf of Alaska, I haven't seen subs elsewhere (except in SoPac early in the game, when Joseph had all the Allied forces arrayed in that area). I haven't seen subs on the West Coast, Hawaii, Bay of Bengal, or any other area of operation. That's been nice, because it gives a bit of freedom of movement with little chance of encountering a hostile.

Ditto his ships. Erik hasn't committed a single combat TF raid in the game except in his waters or waters controlled by neither side. He's never raided Hawaii, the Marshalls, the Admiralties, the Bay of Bengal, etc.

He employs his strategies because he likes the way they work for him. He knows exactly what he's doing.

But in some ways John's tactics would be tougher to do with though probably also costing him more.

I've said before that this game has helped me appreciate even more John's skill as a commanding officer. He's earned his reputation for being aggressive and for leaving holes in his defenses and sometimes not giving full attention to things, but the boy can play. He's tough when he's paying attention.

[RangerJoe]

Just think if John had a Chief of Staff looking over his turn and making recommendations for things that John neglected. [X(]

[JohnDillworth]

I've been reading this forum since the beginning and I think John is the best IJN Navy guy out there. I think, perhaps, sometimes he thinks that every problem has a Navy solution.