The Allies have begun loading China Gambit (Operation Seven Days) troops at the most distant staging point (Darwin) as follows:
1. Samah, Hainan Island: 1 West African AA; 116 USN Base Force; 871 EAB; 55 CD; and 670 TD;
2. Kiungshan, Hainan Island: 860 EAB; 81 USA Infantry Division; 71 RAAF Wing Base Force; US AirSoPac HQ; 2 West African AA; 671 TD; and
3. Swatow, China: 2 Medium Arty; 1 Medium Arty; 2 Royal Tanks.
Most of the troops slated for these destinations are at Makassar. They will begin loading next turn. I hope to have enough transports to also carry troops prepped for Amoy and perhaps Kwangchoan.
?? Gaines Mill or Malvern Hill[8D]
Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum
9/16/44 and 9/17/44
Most of the Seven Days (Chna Gambit) carriers depart Darwin tonight - primarily to clear dock space so that the three lagging TFs can top off and replenish mission sorties. Loading of troops aboard transports at Makassar and Balikpan has commenced. It appears that I have enough transports to carry troops for Samah, Kiungshan, Swatow and Amoy. As loading continues over the next few days, I hope I can also scare up enough transports to bring some troops loaded for Kwangchoan. Here is what's loading at Darwin, Makassar and Balikpan to this point:
1. Samah, Hainan Island: 1 West African AA; 116th USN Base Force; 871 EAB; 55 CD; 670 TD; 706 Tanks; 77th USA Infantry Division; 251 FA; 1 Corps Engineers.
2. Kiungshan, Hainan Island: 860 EAB; 81 USA Infantry Division; 71 RAAF Wing Base Force; US AirSoPac HQ; 2 West African AA; 671 TD;
3. Swatow, China: 2 Medium Arty; 1 Medium Arty; 2 Royal Tanks; 7th USA Infantry Division.
4. Amoy, China: 93rd USA Infantry Division; I Oz Corps HQ.
Loading may take six more days. The invasion fleet should be ready to transit the Java Sea in seven to ten days. I don't think Ticonderoga or Constellation will arrive in time to participate, so they should form a reserve at Darwin.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
The Allies take vacant Tawau (north of Tarakan) and continue small-scale efforts to take Raba (east of Java), Sandakan (north of Tarakan), and Muntok/Toabali (bases on the island north of Palembang). The Allies continue to recon bases around Miri/Brunei/Jesselton, Mindanoa, and the islands in between. But the real focus is on Operation Seven Days (the China Gambit) as troops continue to load and ships weigh anchor. Most of the Allies carriers have taken position near Kendari where they await three TFs that just finished replenishing. Most of the transports have also weighed anchor and are rendezvouing at points near Kendari and Makassar. Some additional loading will take place over the next four days. Here is the updated invasion roster:
1. Samah, Hainan Island: 1 West African AA; 116th USN Base Force; 871 EAB; 55 CD; 670 TD; 706 Tanks; 77th USA Infantry Division; 251 FA; 1 Corps Engineers.
2. Kiungshan, Hainan Island: 860 EAB; 81 USA Infantry Division; 71 RAAF Wing Base Force; US AirSoPac HQ; 2 West African AA; 671 TD; 44 Tanks; 9th Marines.
3. Swatow, China: 2 Medium Arty; 1 Medium Arty; 2 Royal Tanks; 7th USA Infantry Division.
4. Amoy, China: 93rd USA Infantry Division; I Oz Corps HQ; 854 EAB; XI Corps HQ.
5. Kwangchoan, China: 3rd Marines.
I hope to load a few more Kwangchoan-prepped units at Pontianak. I also hope to pick up a few more base forces before departing. A big transport TF loaded with base forces fresh from San Diego is about to transit the Torres Strait. I could wait for it, but I'm more likely to proceed into the South China Sea to try to engage the KB when my ships feint towards Miri/Brunei.
If Miller and I play at our normal pace, there will be fireworks this week.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
9/20/44 and 9/21/44
Deception: With Miri/Brunie and the islands to the north being the "logical" target of the next Allied invasion, it is gratifying to see that Miller has really loaded up the airfields at Brunei and Puerto Princessa. To add to this threat perception, the Allies will ramp up 4EB raids on the airfields at Miri and Puerto Princessa tomorrow. The Allies continue to recon many bases in this region, shifting targets now and then as though really canvasing the region to detect threats and opportunities.
Transit: Most of the Japanese aircraft formerly based in Java are gone (probably to the airfields just mentioned), which makes the job of transiting the Java Sea easier.
Staging: All Allied carrier TFs are now present and steaming in circles east of Kendari. The transports are largely found at Makassar or in TFs at a staging point south of Kendari. The Allies are still rounding up stray units and suppot ships at various ports as distant as Morotai and Boela, so it will be another four or five days before everything is ready to go.
Recon and Target Vulnerability: The Allies have good air bases at Ubon and Udon Thani in eastern Siam. I'll shift recon and patrol aircraft there as soon as the Allied transports complete their feint on Brunei and change course toward Hainan Island. I will be surprised if Miller has strong garrisons at both bases on Hainan Island. If he does, I can divert to an easier target. If he has a strong garrison at one, I will invade at the other. Once that base is taken, I can land reinforcements and then attack the other by land.
Carrier Clash Pending?: I assume Miller will throw his carriers into the frey and that a massive battle will take place. My analysis of ships lost and those still available suggests that he is critically short of cruisers. This should affect his carrier TF escort situation and will also affect his ability to form good combat TFs.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
9/22/44 and 9/23/44
Deception: Allied 4EB hit the airfield and oil production at Miri and clobbered the field at Puerto Princessa, destroying 30 aircraft on the ground (Puerta and Brunei are the two big Japanese airfields). The next step in the deception will be to flood the area from Miri to Puerta with submarines.
Transit: A host of kamikazees from Singapore and other airfields savaged some lightly protected transports bringing supplies to Billiton Island. But with the big Allied airbases at Pontianak, Singkawang, and Kuching I don't think Miller will chance a fight in the Java Sea area. So I believe the carriers, combat ships and transports can safely transit the Java Sea.
Staging: The carriers and combat ships will spring west to a point just west of Makassar. Most of the transports have completed loading now and are gathered either at Makassar or in a convoy heading that way from Lautem. There are a few laggards including a troop transport TF at Morotai which ought to weigh anchor tonight. One more convoy needs to load at Makassar (picking up a base force and a big combat engineer unit). Finally, a big convoy carrying four or five base force units is currently transiting the Torres Strait and may be able to catch up with the invasion force before it heads deep into the South China Sea.
The Big Hunch: I have a good feeling about this invasion from the standpoint that I don't think Miller is expecting a move on coastal China. I also think the deception plan is working well to reinforce his belief that Borneo, Mindanoa, or one of the islands in between is the target.
Embarkation Day: I believe the show will get on the road in three days. The transports and carriers will head west in close proximity to guard against aerial assault. The entire group ought to clear the Java Sea within a week.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
9/24/44 and 9/25/44
Two days of relative quiet, though Allied 4EB continue their efforts against Puerto Princessa, Miri, and Jolo.
The Operation Seven Days (China Gambit) transports at Makassar will get under way tonight. They will steam west and should enter the Java Sea in two or three days. They may have to go slowly for two days to allow all the various TFs sprinkled around the area to come together. I also hope that some lagging TFs (especially the big one in the Torres Straits carrying five or six base forces) will be able to catch up to the "train" before it leaves the protection of LBA provided by the bases at the SW tip of Borneo and heads for China.
Miller and I should get in three turns today, so it's possible the invasion force will be able to implement the feint toward Miri/Brunei before we finish the day. If Miller takes the bate and commits the KB it will be a busy day.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
9/26/44 and 9/28/44
Just as things were getting really, really interesting, Miller announced that he was off to play cards with friends. So the game is on hold until tomorrow, with the situation this:
KB: The Japanese carriers finally showed up west of Pontianak, Borneo, on the 27th and 28th (how they got that deeply into the South China Sea without detection given the number of Allied patrol aircraft is a puzzle). The carriers launched a number of attacks that savaged some small transport convoys that were busy loading a few additional troops for the upcoming China invasion. The Allies lost perhaps a dozen LCI and LST and one CL took a torpedo. Allied LBA (perhaps 50 TBM plus fighter escorts) sortied against KB CAP of roughly 200 Zeros and didn't score. My hope is that the sum total of this action was to elevate fatigue among Japanese naval pilots and reduce mission sorties a bit. I am curious why Miller chose to commit his carriers now rather than to await a moment when Allied carriers might steam beyond the reach of Allied LBA CAP.
Allied Carriers: Currently transiting the Java Sea in the company of most of the invasion transports. I had just reduced the range of both TBM and divebombers to eight to make sure that my aircraft didn't sortie against long-range targets. I haven't seen the turn file yet, so I don't know the range between my carriers and his, but it's probably something like 12-14 hexes. As long as I can replace any LBA fighter squadrons depleted by action over the past two days with full strength squadrons, my ships will continue on tomorrow and should near the Singkawang (SW tip of Borneo) over the next two turns. My carriers have something like 1500 aircraft, and Pontianak, Singkawang, and Kuching can probably contribute eight to ten fighter squadrons. So battle will take place unless Miller withdraws the KB.
Japanese LBA: The main concentrations have been at Singapore and Brunei, which are distant enough that their contributions to any battle will probably diminish quickly due to fatigue and high losses. Miller may be able to quickly shift alot of aircraft to other nearby fields (Palembang, Batavia and Semereng are likely candidates). The Allies have closed Soerabaja and are working on Semereng, but most of these bases will remain operations. Nevertheless, at this point I do not intend to turn back. It's time to steam forward and seek battle.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
KB: The Japanese carriers finally showed up west of Pontianak, Borneo, on the 27th and 28th (how they got that deeply into the South China Sea without detection given the number of Allied patrol aircraft is a puzzle).
are you using search archs? If yes, reset them and just set your patrols to a search percentage, same as you´ve done in WITP. I´m 14 months into my campaign against Rainer79 (IJN) and used dozens of patrols focused with search archs in areas I knew the enemy was going in and out with huge surface combat TFs. Everytime the enemy came in, bombarded me or whiped out some ships and I freaked out because four dozen patrol aircraft couldn´t spot the enemy when it would have been enough in real life to have two or three aircraft patrolling along the shipping lane to surely spot the ships. So this went on and on and on, I was probably using 40% of the USN patrol aircraft around the Bismarck Sea but nothing... just nothing having them focussed with search archs. Then I started to experiment around in an AI game, what did I do? I didn´t use search archs and had far better results? Wow, is that happening by accident I thought? Immedietely have reset all search archs in my PBEM and now it seems to be impossible for the Japanese to come even close to Rabaul without getting spotted. Honestly, IMO, search archs (while being a nice new feature) don´t work.
I'd turn back in this situation, or at least slow down until it is clear, whether the surprise is truly lost. Just allowing IJN's sortie to hit nothing is much preferable at this stage than gambling on an overwhelming victory.
Here's the map of the situation on September 29, 1944, with highlighted course ordered for the Allied "Seven Days" armada. And an armada it is.
The question is: Will Miller commit the KB or will he pull back? I think it will be the latter, but I'm by no means sure. If he commits....well, you can see what will happen.
Another post will follow detailing the composition of the Allied armada plus thoughts regarding the situation.
Attachments
SevenDays093044.jpg (137.51 KiB) Viewed 102 times
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
FatR suggested a pull-back until the Allies could gauge the situation and know what they're getting into. I pondered doing that, but ultimately decided to proceed. My main reasons for steaming forward: (1) Most of this operation is going to take place on enemy turf far from safe harbors; if the Japanese are willing to give battle on Allied turf close to friendly bases and LBA, that's good. (2) Japanese naval air expended sorties yesterday; pilot fatigue should be somewhat elevated also. (3) Allied carrier pilots are fresh and no mission sorties have been expended. (4) The Allies have a vast number of TFs in this armada, plus bases and other shipping around; this generally causes confusion and should result in dispersed attacks. (5) The Allies can easily shuttle fresh squadrons from the rear to the forward bases if this turns into a major battle.
The main Allied fleet includes 15 carrier TFs totaling 8 CV, 8 CVL and 26 CVE carrying 1352 aircraft. There are another 7 CVE serving as close escort for transports. The Allied airfields at Kuching, Singkawang, Pontianak, Ketapang, and Billiton Island have a total of perhaps 10-15 fighter squadrons (but the strike aircraft were decimated in yesterday's attacks.
Yesterday, I expressed suprise that Miller committed his carriers here rather than waiting until the Allied ships rounded Borneo's southwestern tip and left the cover of friendly LRCAP. I felt pretty sure that he thought Brunei/Puerto Princessa would be the next target. From his perspective, though, he may have thought those were a diversion and that a major invasion of Java or Sumatra was in the offing.
The Allies do have the luxury of modifying plans should opportunities arise or necesseties develop. If things go very well, I will proceed to China. If things don't go well, the Allies could land in strength (probably on Java, but possibly on Sumatra).
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Happy 4th of July and all that but please tell me you guys will be playing this weekend? (although we are on target for fireworks well before the 4th)
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
I think we'll get in three or four turns today, so alot should happen unless one side gets clobbered in battle and that player needs time to regroup and recover morale.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
I'm nearly positive Miller's at home and jumped on this turn the minute I sent it. Usually, he'll run a turn and immediately send the Combat Report and Combat Replay file. On turns where not much happened, turn-around time is 30 to 40 minutes. When the turn is a bit more complicated, turn-around time may be 40 minutes to an hour. When the turn-around time is 1.5 hours or more havoc has erupted.
I sent this turn to Miller 56 minutes ago, so I'm starting to hyperventilate.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
tell me you guys will be playing this weekend? (although we are on target for fireworks well before the 4th)