Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Cribtop]

Great news, Dan! Strike hard!

[Canoerebel]

It is taking me an awful lot of time to reorient myself to this match. I remember my general sitaution and my long-term plans, but I don't remember which units are where, and when I click on a base I don't know what the units were supposed to be doing and whether they should be sent somewhere else. So I'm taking things slowly one theater at a time. Here's where things are to this point:

India: The Allies have nearly reconquered India. Japan weakly holds the Imphal to Ledo line, but will soon lose these bases. A couple of IJA divisions are isolated "in the rough" - one north of Calcutta, the other south of Bombay. Brad will have to suicide attack. (He's asked me to do him a favor and just wipe the units out, but at least at first blush I don't see why I should fix a problem of his own making.) Japan still holds Colombo, Trincomalee, North Male Island, Attu Atoll and Diego Garcia. Transports are loading at Mangalore to carry two Aussie brigades to Ceylon. A Chindit unit will try a snap attack on lightly held North Male tomorrow. In general, the Allies wanted to retake these bases in the coming month in preparation for the move on Sumatra. I'm also "showing" alot of units - including 27th USA Divsiion - in northeast India to suggest that the Allies will threaten an land campaign against Burma. Most of these units will be withdraw a month before the Sumatra venture, however.

Sumatra: With respect to the big Sumatra invasion, the Brits, Australians and Indians are set to handle the small islands off the coast plus the Nicobars and Andamans. 27th USA Div. is prepping for Padang. Most of the other units involved - mainly American divisions - are currently based in Australia. I've never "shown" any of my American divisions (other than 27th) to Brad, so he shouldn't be aware that they are in Oz. I need to reconsider some of my prepping. I think I over micromanaged. Rather than having a unit or two prepped for each of the small interior bases and the like, I'm probably better off focusing on the major bases or bases that require amphibious assault. The plan has been to land at Benkolen and Padang in force, but I think I need to expand that to Sabang. That's something under consideration.

China: The Chengte-Changsha-Hengyang-Kweilin front is fairly static now. The Chinese finally dislodged three IJA brigades astride a yellow road north of Sian. This part of the IJA MLR was three hexes wide, so the collapse of the hex on the IJ right flank will threaten the other two IJA stacks. The Allies may be able to make some noise in this region, even threatening Loyang and vicinity. The Chinese have about 7,000 AV in this area with which to work.

NoPac: The Allies have bult up a menacing line of bases in the Aleutians, but I don't intend to make any moves in NoPac until very late in the game - mainly because Brad would be able to make very effective use of the auto-reinforcements triggered by an Allied invasion of the Kuriles. I'll continue to use NoPac primarily as a deterrent, but at some point late in the game I'm pretty sure the Allies will invade somewhere up there in overhwhelming force.

CenPac: You'll recall that the perfectly orchestrated invasion of Wake Island fell apart due to lack of supply (I had way too many troops and my supply evaporated). I have troops well-prepped for Wake and Marcus and may try again at a later date when the KB isn't around. I also have troops prepping for Tarawa and vicinity. No big hurry to move in this region - I probably won't do so until the KB is occupied in Sumatra.

SoPac: The Allies nearly invaded lightly-defended Noumea previously, but I pulled back. The troops are 100% prepped and located at Auckland. I may proceed with this operation soon, or I may just wait until Brad is tied up elsehwere. The Allies hold Fiji in great strength.

SWPac: The Allies had just finished the successful invasion of Exmouth when we halted. My carriers have retired to nearly Perth. That was their first use in the game, so now Brad is aware of their position, which is what I wanted. The Exmouth invasion, combined with the overland offensive that has isolated the IJ garrison at Daly Waters, is intended to present the appearance of a conventional Allied advance into and thence from the Darwin area. I want Brad thinking Timor rather than Sumatra.

Ships: The Allies lost eight BBs at the start of the war (Force Z and Pearl Harbor), but none since then. Only one CA (Canberra) has been sunk and all carriers are available. The IJN is entirely intact.

[Cribtop]

If you haven't already, go back and re-read the last five or so pages of your AAR, especially the longer posts where you detailed your plans. Might help you remember what is where.

[crsutton]

I am glad to see this back up and running. Q Ball is a strong opponent and even though his invasion of India crashed and burned, scen #2 will allow him the resouces to recover. If his fleet is intact then he is in pretty good shape.

[Chickenboy]

[bows to Canoerebel] I'm glad I can come in from the peanut gallery cold again.

I'm just wondering how you're planning on juggling two very different PBEMs. Didn't you swear to yourself that you wouldn't get stuck in this position? [;)]

[Canoerebel]

12/19/42

Shattered Vow Part II?: Chickenboy, I can't handle two games with multiple turns in the same day. But Chez can only serve up a turn a day, and Q-Ball says his turns will be sporadic at best. So unless something changes, thet pace should be manageable.

India: The Allies tried a snap air assault on North Male Island. It didn't succeed on the first try, but it will on the next (in a few days). The Allies can then use that airfield to drop on what seems to be a vacated Addu Atoll. The troops bound for Ceylon should leave Mangalore tonight or tomorrow night.

Sumatra: I made some prep adjustments to get some strength focused on Sabang - An Aussie division and a UK brigade. When 9th Aussie Div. arrives at Aden in four weeks, it too will prep for Sabang. Two APs arrived at the Canal Zone and will move on to Capetown.

SigInt: Reports of 21 Division on a Maru bound for Soerabaja and 52 on a Maru bound for Lae. SigInt is susceptible to trickery by a clever opponent, but these reports and numerous other reports over the past months paint a picture of Japan focusing on New Guinea, Australia, Java, and the Pacific....with little attention given to Sumatra. I know there's at least one division on Sumatra (33rd at Palembang) and at least one mixed brigade (65th at Padang). There's also some base building going one. But overall Sumatra is enticingly quiet.

[Canoerebel]

12/20/42 and 12/21/42

Sumatra: Armed with additional knowledge about Sumatra from my game with Chez, I've been thinking through the Allied plan to invade Sumatra that's been in place since the start of this game. I am beginning to think that the Allies need to focus on western Sumatra rather than eastern Sumatra. The Allies already have troops prepping for Sabang, the islands to the south, the Nicobars, and the Andamans. But instead of sending the bulk of the force to Benkolen and Oosthaven, why not land the biggest part of the army at Sabang and let it steamroll down the road to the east, picking up the remaining three bases or as many as possible before the Japanese cobble together a force sufficient to stop them?

Advantages: The main weakness of the previous plan - focusing on Benkolen and Oosthaven - is that it creates an Allied island, difficult to support, close to major IJ bases. Thus the Allies will be susceptible to counterstrikes and could well be isolated for a long time. But a massive landing in western Sumatra plus adjacent islands can be supported much more readily from Ceylon and India. Also, this quickly becomes a land campaign on good roads in which the Allies are quite likely to steamroll far enough to pick up at least two more big airfields to the east. These airfields are close enough to Singapore and Palembang to create major problems for Japan, and close enough to Malaya to benefit future Allied operations there.

Disadvantages: Brad will be looking for a move in this area after the Allies reclaim Ceylon and Diego Garcia. Also, he has a big network of level five airfields in this region. I'll have to change prep for several divisions, but I have time to do it.

India: Massed Helens from Ceylon struck an RN combat TF, scoring three paint-scratching hits on Royal Sovereign. This TF turned the tables the next day by bombarding the airfield. The Ceylon amphibious TFs depart Mangalore tonight. The Allies have picked up one of the four bases on the Imphal to Ledo line; two more will fall in a couple of days.

China: This has been mostly quiet since the start of the war, but Brad is shifting units around. Pretty soon I'll figure out what he's up to.

[Cribtop]

Do you have enough force to land at Sabang first, even by a few weeks? IIRC, Q evac'd most troops from Ceylon.

[Canoerebel]

Brad lost seven divisions in India - some of them he's working on rebuilding, but at least three at still hung up in no-man's-land.

He still has a powerful army, but his losses mean that he he's much shorter of men to spread around than he might have been. I know he has 33rd Division and 1st Tank Division at Palembang, 38th Division at Singapore, and 65th Mixed Brigade at Padang. He's certainly going to have a decent garrison at Sabang and Port Blair. But nearly all of the SigInt I'm getting is showing troops heading to Soerabaja or other locations well to the east of Sumatra.

I would plan to land two divisions 100% prepped for Sabang with three or four more prepped for bases to the east along the coat road. I have lots of troops prepping for the various islands in the vicinity. I also have two divisions prepping for Padang, and I may keep that part of the plan in place. Padang is hard to besiege by land, due to poor roads, so the only way Brad could realistically try to reclaim it would be by counterinvasion, which is unlikely if the Allies have established strong bases in western Sumatra.

But when I come for Sabang, I have to come full bore - I have to get troops ashore and push down that coast road to take at least one more base, maybe two, to make it worthwhile.

[Cribtop]

Correct, but my point was if you hit Sabang (and Padang) first, leapfrogging Ceylon, your concerns about Q expecting such a move or building up forces for it may be alleviated, provided you don't need to use the Sumatra forces to clean up Ceylon first.

[Canoerebel]

12/22/42

Cribtop: The Sumatra invasion was set for late March for many important reasons. I'll take another look at it to see if it makes sense to move things up to maybe January if I focus on the western rather than eastern end. It might. As for Ceylon, the Allies already hold three bases and are about to land several brigades at Koggala to move on lightly defended Colombo.

Big Game Hunting: Wahoo on patrol near Saipan put a torpedo into Musashi. That's an interesting clue as to where Q-Ball is deploying some power. I'd much rather stumble across a big BB there than, say, the Bay of Bengal.

SigInt: More reports suggesting enemy focus on Soerabaja including one that 52nd Div. is heading there...but just three days ago I got a report it was bound for Lae. So, either Brad made a snap decision to switch destinations, or he's being clever with SigInt deception practices. I'll have to pay very careful attention to reports of where units are to see if they confirm preveious reports as to where they were bound. Also a report that Iwo Jima has a garrison of just 1,000, which may be useful for deception purposes when I pull the trigger on the Sumatra invasion.

[Canoerebel]

12/23/42 to 12/25/42

India: Vengeance dive bombers from Jaffna, Ceylon, sink three xAK and a PB near Trincomalee with troops aboard. I assume, but I'm not 100% sure, that this was a Dunkirk mission leaving Trincomalee rather than transports arriving with reinforcements. An Aussie brigade is landing at Koggala with another to arrive tonight. We'll see if that's enough to re-take Colombo. The Allies have the middle three bases on the Imphal to Ledo line. The other two will fall before New Years, meaning Japan's sole remaining bases in theater will be Trinomalee and Colombo. My, what a change in just three months!

China: Maneuvering on the Sian front to try to isolate an exposed IJA division plus a regiment that will be facing 5,000 Chinese AV if Brad doesn't act quickly.

Sumatra: Still mulling over the change from "east Sumatra" to "west Sumatra," but leaning that way. Continued efforts to get troops, ships and aircraft from USA into position.

Pacific: A number of deception missions and dividend invasions (moving into the vacuum that should be created when Brad moves to counter Sumatra) are still planned. One under consideration is an invasion of Iwo Jima, Marcus, and perhaps Wake Island. Not sure whether that will be a dividend mission or the opening act of an elaborate ruse followed closely by some big noise up around the Kuriles. I like the idea, though.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/23/42 to 12/25/42

India: Vengeance dive bombers from Jaffna, Ceylon, sink three xAK and a PB near Trincomalee with troops aboard. I assume, but I'm not 100% sure, that this was a Dunkirk mission leaving Trincomalee rather than transports arriving with reinforcements. An Aussie brigade is landing at Koggala with another to arrive tonight. We'll see if that's enough to re-take Colombo. The Allies have the middle three bases on the Imphal to Ledo line. The other two will fall before New Years, meaning Japan's sole remaining bases in theater will be Trinomalee and Colombo. My, what a change in just three months!

China: Maneuvering on the Sian front to try to isolate an exposed IJA division plus a regiment that will be facing 5,000 Chinese AV if Brad doesn't act quickly.

Sumatra: Still mulling over the change from "east Sumatra" to "west Sumatra," but leaning that way. Continued efforts to get troops, ships and aircraft from USA into position.

Pacific: A number of deception missions and dividend invasions (moving into the vacuum that should be created when Brad moves to counter Sumatra) are still planned. One under consideration is an invasion of Iwo Jima, Marcus, and perhaps Wake Island. Not sure whether that will be a dividend mission or the opening act of an elaborate ruse followed closely by some big noise up around the Kuriles. I like the idea, though.

Isn't Iwo within 20 hexes of the Japanese home islands? You may be risking a 1/1/44 triggering of Kamikazes, akin to your Kurile invasion versus Miller.

[Canoerebel]

12/26/42

Chickenboy: Good to see you posting, I've long espoused a policy of ignoring the triggering of kamikazees if the plan otherwise makes sense. In other words, I don't factor kamikazee-triggering into my evaluation of a plan. Just a personal prefernce on my part.

India: The Allies should take Ledo tomorrow and Imphal in no more than three days. India will once again belong to the Allies, excepting Ceylon, which will take a few weeks simply due to marching distances for my troops. SigInt reports 18th Div. at Mandalay. I like seeing an IJ Div. where it won't be needed. The Allies will do a little showing of 27th US Div. and a Marine RCT at Imphal and then around Akyab over the coming weeks - part of the plan to show that the Allies intend to prress into Burma.

Sumatra: SigInt shows that 6th Air Div. is at Palembang and 12th Base Force at Medan.

Oz: This critical part of the Allied maskirovka is going well. Brad is paying alot of attention to the Allied army besieging Daly Waters and to the force that recently took Exmouth. A USN sub just sank a PB near Derby. Lots of SigInt re troops going to Soerabaja. Brad is clearly concerned about Allied intentions in this region, and it should be easy to reinforce his concerns when the time comes. Also, the Marine 'chute battalion prepped for Terapo in New Guinea is in place at Portland Roads. When the time comes for deception, it will attack and enemy radar will pick up a fleet of empty ships threatening Port Moresby.

Noumea: The Allies are resurrecting this operation, cancelled just short of climax a month or more ago. The base is very lightly defended and carriers can handle CAP for the threat posed by Luganville and Espiritu Santo. The carriers are on the way after refueling at Adelaide. While getting Noumea will be nice, the main thing is to demonstrate once again Allied intentions in and around Oz. I am very, very alert to the risk of a clash with the KB. The Allies already have a ton of pickets ships all around the region, none of which are getting picked up by enemy patrols. More pickets in the form of flanker DDs will fan out in front of the carriers.

The Pacific: The shifting of troops will continue right up until the invasion of Sumatra takes place. Another big convoy carrying engineers and base forces just departed San Diego. This one includes a bunch of AP that will remain at Oz to participate in the invasion (all or nearly all AP go to that operation while xAP will remain n the Pacific to handle the possible Iwo/Marcus invasions and the Kuriles feint).

[Canoerebel]

12/27/42 to 12/29/42
 
Sumatra:  Per previous discussion, the Allies have tweaked the Sumatra invasion to focus on the crescent from Padang west to Sabang and east to Langsa.  This only involved changing orders for about ten units, including several American divisions now going to Padang and Sabang rather than places like Benkolen and Prabaemolith.  Also, more weight was included in Port Blair package.  If the Allies can get ashore and take these three key bases (Padang, Sabang and Port Blair) along with the numerous important island outposts that should be lightly guarded (Nicobars, the islands off the Sumatra coast), there shouldn't be any way that Japan can dislodge the force.  The fact that the Allies will be have an uninterrupted link to Ceylon will tie things together better than the original "east Sumatra" plan.
 
Diversions:  The Allies will throw feints at the Kuriles and NW Oz while engaging in genuine landings at Iwo, Marcus and perhaps Wake Island.  Also, paratroops will strike at Terapo on New Guinea if that post remains vacant.
 
Current Deceptions:  The Allies continue operations against northwestern Oz and are proceeding with the invasion of Noumea.  The former operation has Brad's full attention.  The latter will be covered by carriers and will take place within two weeks.  Both of these will continue the appearance of a threat to New Guinea and the eastern DEI.
 
Timetable:  The Allies are awaiting additional transports over the next month or so.  I'll be in a tenuous trade-off position - the sooner I strike the better as Brad is clearly looking at Oz right now, but the longer I wait the more good transports I'll have at my disposal.  The earliest the Allies can move is probably two months.

[Canoerebel]

12/30/42
 
India:  The Allies reclaim Imphal, the last IJ base in India.  This is significant only as a symbol.  You only have to go back into September to find the Japanese besieging Jalagon, north of Bombay, as their high water mark.  The collapse was sudden and swift.  The last remaining IJ bases offshore:  Addu (which should fall tomorrow), Diego Garcia (I'm debating when to go for this as it could impact Alllied operations against Sumatra and the Andamans); and Colombo/Trincomalee (should fall in a few weeks when Aussie troops arrive).
 
China:  Maneuvering and countermaneuvering going on NE of Sian.  Brad tried to orchestrate a little ambush of a a Chinese army, but it was pretty obvious and the Chinese were working on an ambush of their own.  Tomorrow, 4,200 Chinese AV get a crack at about 700 well-dug-in but undersupplied IJ AV in the forests.
 
SoPac:  The Noumea invasion troops begin loading at Auckland tonight.  The carriers will arrive in about three days.  I think Japan is focused fully on NW Oz and that Brad has no interest in Noumea.  That could be a ruse, so I"m making heavy use of picket ships (merchant marine) and flankers (destroyers) in order to avoid a nasty carrier ambush.

[Canoerebel]

12/31/42
 
China:  Irony north of Sian as the Japanese caught up to and mauled a single Chinese corps that was part of an army encirciling a Japanese army in the forests; but the rest of the Chinese encirclers combined with a Chinese army already in place to maul a Japanese division.  The net result isn't much as Japan has brought in reinforcements, but shouldn't have enough to threaten the Chinese MLR in the forests north of Sian.
 
India:  The Allies take Addu Atoll.  Japan is evacuating the remnants of its Ceylon garrison by sub, so by the time the Aussies arrive at Colombo and Trincomalee, both bases should change hands easily.  Allied ASW is contesting the sub withrawal and managed to sink one IJN submersible a few days ago.
 
SoPac:  The Noumea invasion fleet will depart Auckland tonight.  Rendezvous with the carriers will take place south of Norfolk Island in about three days.  Lots of Allied pickets have been in place around Noumea for months now without any sign of detection, which is the most reliable indication that Brad isn't much interested in this outpost.  I hope that's true.

[Canoerebel]

1/1/43
 
China:  In the final act of the little dance that was going on north of Sian, the Chinese bushwacked a Japane tank regiment.  Now, way down south near Kweilin, another Chinese army is going to see if it is strong enough to take on an IJA division.  Force ratio is 2000 AV Chinese v. 500 AV Japanese, so we have a shot.
 
India:  Recon shows just one IJ unit at Diego Garcia, and several SigInt reports over the past week claim that it is 96th IJAAF base force.  On the possibility that this report is accurate, the Allies will try a snap invasion withan an Aussie pioneer unit (40 AV) that is 100% prepped.  D-Day will be about a week.  If that doesn't work, an Aussie brigade and an Indian division are prepping.
 
Sumatra:  SigInt that IJ 54th Construction Regiment aboard a maru bound for Sabang.  We're getting signals and indications that Japan is giving attention to Sumatra, but more to NW Oz and the eastern DEI.
 
Oz:  The Aussie army at Daly Waters still isn't getting good odds vs. the isolated IJ army, but we'll keep trying now and then because enemy supply should be limited.
 
Noumea:  The invasion transports are at the rendezvous between NZ and Norfolk Island.  The carriers should arrive day after tomorrow.  "Dark red" icon for an IJ TF well northwest of Noumea.  I have no idea what it is, but I've deployed additional pickets and flankers.  If it's the KB, I want to know it so that I can skedaddle.  If it's merchants or other potential victims, I want to know it so that the Allied carriers can strike.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

1/1/43
 
China:  In the final act of the little dance that was going on north of Sian, the Chinese bushwacked a Japane tank regiment.  Now, way down south near Kweilin, another Chinese army is going to see if it is strong enough to take on an IJA division.  Force ratio is 2000 AV Chinese v. 500 AV Japanese, so we have a shot.

India:  Recon shows just one IJ unit at Diego Garcia, and several SigInt reports over the past week claim that it is 96th IJAAF base force.  On the possibility that this report is accurate, the Allies will try a snap invasion withan an Aussie pioneer unit (40 AV) that is 100% prepped.  D-Day will be about a week.  If that doesn't work, an Aussie brigade and an Indian division are prepping.

Sumatra:  SigInt that IJ 54th Construction Regiment aboard a maru bound for Sabang.  We're getting signals and indications that Japan is giving attention to Sumatra, but more to NW Oz and the eastern DEI.

Oz:  The Aussie army at Daly Waters still isn't getting good odds vs. the isolated IJ army, but we'll keep trying now and then because enemy supply should be limited.

Noumea:  The invasion transports are at the rendezvous between NZ and Norfolk Island.  The carriers should arrive day after tomorrow.  "Dark red" icon for an IJ TF well northwest of Noumea.  I have no idea what it is, but I've deployed additional pickets and flankers.  If it's the KB, I want to know it so that I can skedaddle.  If it's merchants or other potential victims, I want to know it so that the Allied carriers can strike.

Canoe,

Since it has been a while, perhaps a couple of screenies are in order. Northern OZ and China come to mind.

[Canoerebel]

1/2/43 to 1/5/43
 
New Caledonia:  The Allied invasion TF will slip north of Norfolk Island tonight, with D-Day in two or three days.  The Allied carriers are trailing a few hexes and trying to replenish fuel stores.  A large number of Allied picket ships and flankers all around New Caledonia and to the north, and none have been picked up by recon.  An enemy picket ship was just reported south of New Caledonia - a PB.  I think Brad is concentrating his forces in the eastern DEI to handle the perceived threat coming from SW Oz, so I don't expect to encounter enemy carriers.  SigInt that CVE Hosho is on the way to Soerabaja was encouraging in this regard.
 
Oz:  The Allied army at Daly Waters has reduced forts to two and achieved 1:1 odds on the most recent deliberate attack.  This base should fall in days.
 
India:  Two Aussie brigades reclaimed Colombo, leaving Japan with just Trincomalee, which will fall soon, and Diego Garcia.  An IJ transport TF is approaching the latter.  I'm interested in seeing whether it's on an evacuation mission or reinforcement mission.
 
China:  On the southern front, in the forests west of Liuchow, a Chinese army is making progress in defeating an IJA division, but I think Brad may be able to extract it before it is forced to retreat.
 
Crsutton:  I owe you some maps and will get to that sooner or later.