Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

Turn around time was 1:17.  There was a sharp carrier engagement at the southwest tip of Borneo.  I am going through the combat report and will summarize in a post to follow in a little while.  Here is my overall impression of what happened:
 
1.  The Allies emerge the victor, but both sides are bloodied.
2.  The KB suffered moderate to severe damage to CV and CVL.  The KB ought to be out of action for a long time.
3.  The final IJN strike of the day mauled 10 Allied CVE.  At least one went under.
4.  Allied fleet carriers, combat ships, and transports weren't touched, though losses to carrier aircraft may have been high.
5.  I don't think Japanese LBA were a factor - I didn't detect any kamikazees in the combat report.  Miller could be planning to employ them next turn?
6.  Until I see the turn file and gauge aircraft losses, missions sorties remaining, etc., I'm unsure whether the Allies should proceed to China.  On the plus side, the KB is largely eliminated from the equation (and that's a huge plus).  On the minus side, the loss of ten CVE is a major factor (though the Allies can strip the transport TFs of CVEs and thus replace as many as seven CVE).
7.  If the Allies decide to delay China, I should be able to divert my transports to Java (or less likely Sumatra, because it's more distant and therefore risky) and invade in big numbers.  I could reduce Java to an Allied stronghold over the coming months and then reorganize the move north (I doubt I would even change the prep of my units).
 
At the moment, I'm probably leaning toward proceeding to China, but I need alot more information before making a decision.
 
Combat highlights to follow in another post in a little while.

[Canoerebel]

Excerpts of major clashes from combat report pasted below.  The surface clash on the morning of day two and air strikes B, M, N, and O are where the real damage is done.
 
I.  9/30/44 attacks (the two biggest air attacks follow):
 
(A)  Morning Air attack on TF, near Pontianak at 56,90
 
Weather in hex: Light rain
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 80
      D4Y3 Judy x 11 
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 4
      Seafire IIC x 1
      Wildcat V x 3
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 10
      FM-2 Wildcat x 15
      F4U-1A Corsair x 4
      F4U-1D Corsair x 1
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 43
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 21
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 18 destroyed
      D4Y3 Judy: 6 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
      FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
 
Allied Ships
      DD Bullard
 
(B)  Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Pontianak at 56,90
 
Weather in hex: Moderate rain
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 70
      D4Y3 Judy x 2 
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 4
      Seafire IIC x 1
      Wildcat V x 3
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 9
      FM-2 Wildcat x 13
      F4U-1D Corsair x 1
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 30
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 21 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 15 destroyed
      D4Y3 Judy: 1 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
      F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
 
Allied Ships
      DMS Hamilton
 
II.  10/1/44
 
A.  This day begins with surface action near Pontiatak.  Several early clashes result in the Allies losing a DD or two.  The following is the only major clash:
 
Night Time Surface Combat, near Pontianak at 54,89, Range 10,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CL Naka, Shell hits 11,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CL Kuma, Shell hits 17, and is sunk
      DD Arashi
      DD Tanikaze
      DD Kasumi
      DD Tachekaze, Shell hits 1
      DD Arikaze
      DD Satsukaze, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      DD Tagokaze, Shell hits 1
      DD Takatakaze, Shell hits 8,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Myojinkaze, Shell hits 4,  heavy fires
      DD Yamanakaze
 
Allied Ships
      BB New Jersey
      CA Boston, Shell hits 3
      CL Biloxi
      DD Bell, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      DD Black
      DD Clarence Bronson, Shell hits 10,  heavy fires
      DD Caperton
      DD Charrette, Shell hits 1
      DD Colahan, Shell hits 1
      DD Cotten
      DD Dortch
      DMS Hambleton
 
B.  First big Allied strike sortie of the day:
Morning Air attack on TF, near Tioman Island at 52,84
 
Weather in hex: Light rain
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 333
 
Allied aircraft
      Avenger II x 12
      Corsair II x 4
      Wildcat V x 4
      FM-2 Wildcat x 70
      F4U-1A Corsair x 16
      F4U-1D Corsair x 11
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 124
      F6F-3N Hellcat x 3
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 65
      SB2C-3 Helldiver x 17
      SBD-5 Dauntless x 20
      TBF-1 Avenger x 20
      TBM-1C Avenger x 129 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      Avenger II: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
      Wildcat V: 1 destroyed
      FM-2 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
      F6F-3N Hellcat: 1 destroyed
      F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
      SB2C-3 Helldiver: 2 destroyed, 6 damaged
      SBD-5 Dauntless: 2 destroyed, 7 damaged
      TBF-1 Avenger: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged
      TBM-1C Avenger: 16 destroyed, 46 damaged
 
Japanese Ships
      CV Zuikaku, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1
      CVL Shoho, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
      CV Shokaku, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1,  on fire
      DD Wakazuki
      DD Urazuki
      CLAA Nagara
      CVL Nisshin, Torpedo hits 2,  on fire,  heavy damage
      DD Katsutade
      CV Unryu
      CV Amagi, Bomb hits 2,  on fire
      CA Mogami
      DD Shiratsuyu
      CLAA Yura
 
C. Morning Air attack on TF, near Tioman Island at 52,84
 
Weather in hex: Light rain
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 286
 
Allied aircraft
      Avenger II x 4
      Corsair II x 2
      Wildcat V x 2
      FM-2 Wildcat x 10
      F4U-1D Corsair x 7
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 17
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 31
      SB2C-3 Helldiver x 14
      SBD-5 Dauntless x 4
      TBF-1 Avenger x 4
      TBM-1C Avenger x 51 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 3 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      Avenger II: 2 destroyed
      Wildcat V: 1 destroyed
      FM-2 Wildcat: 3 destroyed
      F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
      F6F-5 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
      SB2C-3 Helldiver: 9 destroyed, 2 damaged
      SBD-5 Dauntless: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
      TBF-1 Avenger: 3 destroyed
      TBM-1C Avenger: 16 destroyed, 1 damaged
 
Japanese Ships
      CV Zuikaku
      CV Shokaku,  on fire,  heavy damage
      CV Amagi,  on fire
 
D.  Morning Air attack on TF, near Tioman Island at 52,84
 
Weather in hex: Light rain
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 244 
 
Allied aircraft
      F4U-1D Corsair x 1
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 1
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 19
      SB2C-1C Helldiver x 11
      TBM-1C Avenger x 16 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      F4U-1D Corsair: 1 destroyed
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
      F6F-5 Hellcat: 6 destroyed
      SB2C-1C Helldiver: 4 destroyed
      TBM-1C Avenger: 5 destroyed
 
E. Morning Air attack on TF, near Tioman Island at 52,84
 
Weather in hex: Light rain
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 180
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 5
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 11
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 12
      SB2C-3 Helldiver x 7
      TBF-1 Avenger x 12
      TBM-1C Avenger x 16
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
      F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
      SB2C-3 Helldiver: 5 destroyed
      TBF-1 Avenger: 4 destroyed
      TBM-1C Avenger: 5 destroyed
 
F.  Morning Air attack on TF, near Tioman Island at 52,84
 
Weather in hex: Light rain
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 54 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 115
 
Allied aircraft
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 2
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 5
      SB2C-1C Helldiver x 14
      TBM-1C Avenger x 6
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
      F6F-5 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
      SB2C-1C Helldiver: 9 destroyed
      TBM-1C Avenger: 2 destroyed
 
Japanese Ships
      CV Zuikaku
 
G.  Morning Air attack on TF, near Pontianak at 56,90
 
Weather in hex: Severe storms
 
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      B6N2 Jill x 29
      B6N2a Jill x 10
      B7A2 Grace x 43
      D4Y3 Judy x 71
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 12
      Seafire IIC x 5
      Wildcat V x 11
      P-38L Lightning x 3
      P-40N5 Warhawk x 22
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 40
      FM-2 Wildcat x 173
      F4U-1A Corsair x 42
      F4U-1D Corsair x 15
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 315
      F6F-3N Hellcat x 9
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 122 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      B6N2 Jill: 11 destroyed
      B7A2 Grace: 11 destroyed
      D4Y3 Judy: 27 destroyed
 
H.  Morning Air attack on TF, near Pontianak at 56,90
 
Weather in hex: Severe storms
 
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      B6N2 Jill x 15
      B7A2 Grace x 19
      D4Y3 Judy x 26
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 12
      Seafire IIC x 5
      Wildcat V x 10
      P-38L Lightning x 2
      P-40N5 Warhawk x 17
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 33
      FM-2 Wildcat x 171
      F4U-1A Corsair x 41
      F4U-1D Corsair x 15
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 301
      F6F-3N Hellcat x 9
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 115
  
Japanese aircraft losses
      B6N2 Jill: 7 destroyed
      B7A2 Grace: 3 destroyed
      D4Y3 Judy: 5 destroyed
 
I.  Morning Air attack on TF, near Pontianak at 56,90
 
Weather in hex: Severe storms
 
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      D4Y3 Judy x 13 
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 10
      Seafire IIC x 5
      Wildcat V x 9
      P-38L Lightning x 2
      P-40N5 Warhawk x 10
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 24
      FM-2 Wildcat x 169
      F4U-1A Corsair x 39
      F4U-1D Corsair x 15
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 289
      F6F-3N Hellcat x 9
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 109 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      D4Y3 Judy: 6 destroyed
 
J.  Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Pontianak at 54,89
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      D4Y2 Judy x 33
      Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 58
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 9
      Seafire IIC x 3
      Wildcat V x 5
      P-38L Lightning x 12
      P-40N5 Warhawk x 22
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 21
      FM-2 Wildcat x 58
      F4U-1A Corsair x 9
      F4U-1D Corsair x 12
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 130
      F6F-3N Hellcat x 5
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 100 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      D4Y2 Judy: 15 destroyed
      Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 10 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      Seafire IIC: 1 destroyed
      Wildcat V: 1 destroyed
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
      F6F-3N Hellcat: 1 destroyed
 
K.  Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Pontianak at 54,89
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 41 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 23
      D4Y2 Judy x 52
      J2M3 Jack x 44
      Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 36
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 8
      Seafire IIC x 2
      Wildcat V x 3
      P-38L Lightning x 10
      P-40N5 Warhawk x 16
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 20
      FM-2 Wildcat x 57
      F4U-1A Corsair x 9
      F4U-1D Corsair x 11
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 115
      F6F-3N Hellcat x 4
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 91
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed
      D4Y2 Judy: 33 destroyed
      J2M3 Jack: 5 destroyed
      Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 7 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      Wildcat V: 1 destroyed
      FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
      F4U-1A Corsair: 1 destroyed
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
 
 
L.  Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Pontianak at 54,89
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 44 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 62
      B7A2 Grace x 9 
 
Allied aircraft
      Corsair II x 7
      Seafire IIC x 2
      P-38L Lightning x 7
      P-40N5 Warhawk x 11
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 18
      FM-2 Wildcat x 45
      F4U-1A Corsair x 6
      F4U-1D Corsair x 9
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 94
      F6F-3N Hellcat x 3
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 73
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 19 destroyed
      B7A2 Grace: 6 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
 
M. Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Bintan at 53,86
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 77
 
Allied aircraft
      Barracuda II x 12
      Corsair II x 12
      FM-2 Wildcat x 70
      F4U-1A Corsair x 16
      F4U-1D Corsair x 18
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 150
      F6F-3N Hellcat x 6
      F6F-5 Hellcat x 139
      SB2C-1C Helldiver x 15
      SB2C-3 Helldiver x 54
      SBD-5 Dauntless x 19
      TBF-1 Avenger x 17
      TBM-1C Avenger x 238 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 10 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      FM-2 Wildcat: 4 destroyed
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 7 destroyed
      F6F-5 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
      SB2C-1C Helldiver: 3 damaged
      SB2C-3 Helldiver: 1 destroyed, 21 damaged
      SBD-5 Dauntless: 5 damaged
      TBF-1 Avenger: 1 damaged
      TBM-1C Avenger: 14 destroyed, 56 damaged
 
Japanese Ships
      CVL Ibuki, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CV Kasagi, Bomb hits 3,  heavy fires
      CV Katsuragi, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
      CV Ikoma, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
      CV Aso, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
      CVL Ryuho, Torpedo hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CA Takao, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
      DD Tenshin
      DD Maki
      DD Kaede, Bomb hits 2,  heavy fires
      DD Nagatsuki
 
N.  Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Bintan at 53,86
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 54 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 19 
 
Allied aircraft
      Avenger II x 26
      Seafire IIC x 2
      Wildcat V x 7
      FM-2 Wildcat x 50
      F4U-1A Corsair x 14
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 56
      SB2C-1C Helldiver x 10
      SB2C-3 Helldiver x 15
      SBD-5 Dauntless x 8
      TBF-1 Avenger x 23
      TBM-1C Avenger x 59 
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed
 
Allied aircraft losses
      Avenger II: 7 damaged
      FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
      SB2C-1C Helldiver: 4 damaged
      SB2C-3 Helldiver: 2 damaged
      SBD-5 Dauntless: 4 damaged
      TBF-1 Avenger: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged
      TBM-1C Avenger: 1 destroyed, 22 damaged
 
Japanese Ships
      CV Aso, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CV Ikoma,  heavy fires
      DD Fumizuki
      CVL Ryuho, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      DD Jinyu
      DD Toten
      DD Tonshin
      DD Kosho
      DD Nagatsuki
      DD Tenshin
      CV Akagi, Bomb hits 3,  on fire
      CVL Mizuho, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
      CVL Ryujo
      BB Musashi
      DD Sakura
      DD Tsubaki
      DD Toyohi
      DD Nara, Bomb hits 1,  on fire
 
O. Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Pontianak at 56,90
 
Weather in hex: Clear sky
 
Raid detected at 160 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 53 minutes
 
Japanese aircraft
      A6M5b Zero x 144
      B6N2 Jill x 46
      B6N2a Jill x 19
      B7A2 Grace x 69
      D4Y3 Judy x 124 
 
Allied aircraft
      Wildcat V x 4
      P-47D25 Thunderbolt x 13
      FM-2 Wildcat x 55
      F4U-1A Corsair x 16
      F6F-3 Hellcat x 106
 
Japanese aircraft losses
      A6M5b Zero: 14 destroyed
      B6N2 Jill: 11 destroyed, 10 damaged
      B6N2a Jill: 7 destroyed, 3 damaged
      B7A2 Grace: 5 destroyed, 9 damaged
      D4Y3 Judy: 28 destroyed, 6 damaged
 
Allied aircraft losses
      Wildcat V: 1 destroyed
      FM-2 Wildcat: 4 destroyed
      F6F-3 Hellcat: 2 destroyed
 
Allied Ships
      CVE Savo Island, Bomb hits 5,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CVE Steamer Bay, Bomb hits 4,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CVE Suwannee, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 5, and is sunk
      CVE Chenango, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
      DD Crane, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      CVE Hoggatt Bay, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires
      CVE Tulagi, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CVE Kadashan Bay, Torpedo hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      CL Tromp
      CVE Shah, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Roe
      CVE Wake Island, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
      CVE Petrof Bay, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Caldwell
      DD Stronghold
      DD Aaron Ward
      DD Walke, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
      DD Frazier 
 

[Canoerebel]

Some oddities:
 
1.  Miller says he had Palembang and Singapore loaded with LBA set to strike, but they didn't fly. 
2.  Miller also sufferered because many early IJN strikes were very light on strike aircraft and heavy on escorts.
3.  The Allied CVE TFs seem to have separated from the fleet carriers against orders.  Not sure why - these ships have sailed together (all following a combat TF) in a tight "knot" for well over two months now.
4.  Look at the size of the Allied strikes (M and N) - they were HUGE and totally overwhelmed the Japanese CAP....but the hits scored were awfully low.  Another pathetic performance by Allied naval air in the game.
 
Some thoughts:
 
1.  The KB was hit hard, but alot of the ships are probably still afloat.  I probably need to give chase despite the threat of LBA.
2. If I give chase, I'll probably have to scrub the China Invasion until after my carriers finish, return to port, and replenish (I have a bunch of AE and an AKE present, so perhaps I can accomplish that at a forward base).
3.  I need to bring forward some B-29 and B-24 in preparation for hitting the port facilities at Singapore (where I think damaged IJN carriers will seek refuge).
4.  By the time this mess is sorted out, CV Ticonderoga (presently nearing Townsville) and CV Constellation (nearing Perth) can join the party.
5.  Not sure what to do with my troops yet.  Hold them aboard ship?  Land them temporarily until the carrier battle is resolved?  Invade Java or Sumatra or Malaya?

[Canoerebel]

Miller's take on things:[/align] [/align]Its going to take me a while to sort this mess out, however my thoughts are:[/align] [/align]Day 1 - My carriers launch a grand total of 20 or so dive bombers against your CVE fleets at Pontianak - why? A superb opportunity missed.[/align] [/align]Day 2 - Your main CV fleets show up and it gets ugly. In the morning phase your strikes go in and I see the Cap of 350ish Zeros and I think "Oh oh, I have not launched any strikes" otherwise my CAP would not have been nearly so high. Despite the large CAP they perform poorly against your first big strike, lucky for me your bombers were lousy shots. The rest of your AM strikes are torn up, but the damage is already done.[/align] [/align]Then, amazingly my carriers launch a few unescorted strikes, the majority abort but many go down to pointless deaths, WHY NO ESCORTS??????? Meanwhile, the vast majority of my LBA at Singapore and Palembang do not bother to fly.
[/align]And then we have the afternoon phase.....Both TFs react and your strikes then proceed to sink or cripple most of the KB. My return strike ignores your CVs and goes after your CVEs, sinking half a dozen or so - why could they not do this on day 1??? A disaster for me, not totally unexpected however.

[/align]My reply:[/align] [/align][font=arial]I don't know how my CVEs ended up in a hex different from the fleet carriers. All of them were following the same combat TF and all of them have remained in the same hex for basically the last two months of the war.  That's the first thing that puzzled me.[/font]
[font=arial]Also, if not for the incredibly, amazingly poor performance by my pilots, those last two attacks would have been death on the IJN fleet.  The Allies had vastly superior numbers, but didn't do much with them.[/font]
[/align]

[JohnDillworth]

On the surface it looks good for you. Miller had a couple of big strikes come in unescorted and got mauled. Compare that to the escorted strike against the CVE's! I think you are in the much better position to trade punches at this point.

[Canoerebel]

Here's the damage to the KB:

Probably sunk:  CVL Ryuho (3 T), CVL Shoho (2 T), CVL Nissin (2 T)
Probably crippled:  CV Aso (2 B, 2 T)
Major damage:  CV Akagi (3 B), CV Kasagi (3 B), CV Katsuragi (2 B), CV Ihoma (2 B), CV Zuikaku (1 B, 1 T), CV Shokaku (1 B, 1 T), CV Amagi (2 B)

Thirteen Japanese fleet carriers are sunk or damaged; the Allies lose or suffer damage to ten CVE.

I still need to look at the file for the next turn, but my first thought is that the Allied HAVE TO close and try to finish off cripples despite the threat (massed kamikazees) of LBA from Palembang and Singapore.  The KB is crippled for at least four months, I'd say, but I think I need to strive for the coup-de-grace.  Finish the KB now and the Allies can pretty much advance at will.

[crsutton]

Canoe,

Note, that all the morning attacks for both sides were in rain or severe storms. All afternoon attacks were in clear weather. This could be a big factor in both coordination and hits.

Anyways, the loss of your CVEs hurts but you had to do this as KB was the last major asset Miller owns and as long as he kept it intact, your own operations were limted. You should have a lot more freedom of action now so I would give you a major strategic victory. Even if his damaged carriers escape, they be become more redundant as they are out of action for a long time and will have much less freedom of action when they return.

If his LBA flew then the results for you could have been worse but I don't think this would matter if you put KB on the shelf and it looks as if you have. I don't know if I would venture into his kamikaze attacks. It is a tough call. I don't think you need to sink his carriers at this point, but I am a cautious player.

Still having fun reading this.

[anarchyintheuk]

Congratulations on the damage inflicted even if you're not going to be invited to any cve reunions any time soon. Tough call on finishing them off. A lot of lba about and presumably your fighters have high fatigue.

This has got to be one of the strangest combat results that I've ever seen:

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 333

Allied aircraft
Avenger II x 12
Corsair II x 4
Wildcat V x 4
FM-2 Wildcat x 70
F4U-1A Corsair x 16
F4U-1D Corsair x 11
F6F-3 Hellcat x 124
F6F-3N Hellcat x 3
F6F-5 Hellcat x 65
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 17
SBD-5 Dauntless x 20
TBF-1 Avenger x 20
TBM-1C Avenger x 129

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
Wildcat V: 1 destroyed
FM-2 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
F6F-3N Hellcat: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 2 destroyed, 6 damaged
SBD-5 Dauntless: 2 destroyed, 7 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged
TBM-1C Avenger: 16 destroyed, 46 damaged

[AcePylut]

I'd still push on with China.  That's the strategic goal of this operation. 
 
Thinking about it irl terms... if you do turn back, then this would be similar to the real-life Coral Sea invasion.  Tactical victory for the Japs, Strategic Victory for the Allies.  Do you want a strategic victory in completing the goals you've set out for this invasion fleet - or a strategic defeat in that he turned back your invasion fleet?
 
Either way, you've already won a great tactical victory.    Land in China, get the HI strategic bombing going asap, then you can go after whatever is left of the Jap CV's.
 
IMHO.   

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Gents, for comments and suggestions.  Here's some observations as I've just sent the next turn to Miller:
 
1.  The reason the Allied CVEs and fleet carriers separated?  All carrier TFs were set to follow Combat TF 138, which wa to take station one hex west of Pontianak.  When Japanese combat ships raided this port, TF 138 reacted and moved to the port hex.  Most, but not all, of the CVE TFs followed suit.  Then, the fleet carriers (and a few CVE TFs) reacted AWAY from TF 138 towards the KB.  That's the sort of unexpected, complicated mayhem that can occur when big, powerful groups close for battle.
 
2.  The Japanese lost 500+ aircraft and the Allies about 365.  Oddly, the Allies lost 42 aircraft to flak...the Japanese just four!  How is that possible?
 
3.  The Allied combat ships and carriers are in pretty good shape.  The CVEs and combat ships at Pontiatak have replenished and are 100% on missions sorties and ammo.  The carriers a few hexes west have missions sorties ranging from 87% to 95%, so they look good to go another round.  Attrition to naval aircraft wasn't too bad - most units are probably at 70% to 85% effectiveness.
 
4.  The Allied ships (carriers, combat ships, transports, and support) will continue into the South China Sea, taking position six hexes NNE of Singapore.  All strike aircraft are set to naval attack primary/port attack (Singapore) secondary.  The range for all carrier aircraft has been reset from 8 to max (in order to reach out as far as possible on ships heading toward Saigon).  This destination moves the carriers further away (10 hexes) from Palembang's airfield, somewhat reducing the risk from that direction.
 
5.  B-29s at Kendari, Ayuthia (near Bangkok) and Rangoon set to hit Singapore's port facilities and airfield.
 
6.  B-24s at Sampit are set to hit Singapore's airfield.
 
7.  What happens next turn will help me decide what to do next.  I am still evaluating between (1) moving on China; (2) reorienting and attacking either Malaya, Sumatra, or Java; or (3) standing down temporarily until the dust clears a bit.
 
8.  Overall, this "feels" like a major Allied victory.  That could change if waves of kamikazees attack tomorrow, but the Allies are very close to breaking the backs of the Japanese (if they haven't already done so). 
 

[HMS Resolution]

I can't think it'd be much of a victory for the Japanese, as they would effectively lose the ability to counter naval movements for the rest of the war.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

This has got to be one of the strangest combat results that I've ever seen:

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 333

Allied aircraft
Avenger II x 12
Corsair II x 4
Wildcat V x 4
FM-2 Wildcat x 70
F4U-1A Corsair x 16
F4U-1D Corsair x 11
F6F-3 Hellcat x 124
F6F-3N Hellcat x 3
F6F-5 Hellcat x 65
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 17
SBD-5 Dauntless x 20
TBF-1 Avenger x 20
TBM-1C Avenger x 129

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
Wildcat V: 1 destroyed
FM-2 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
F6F-3N Hellcat: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 2 destroyed, 6 damaged
SBD-5 Dauntless: 2 destroyed, 7 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged
TBM-1C Avenger: 16 destroyed, 46 damaged

This has been going on all game, and I can't figure it out. It's not due to pilot training, because the Allied carrier fighter pilots are high experience (now mostly from upper 60s to upper 70s) and Miller tells me that his pilot experience is pretty low now.

[JohnDillworth]

2. The Japanese lost 500+ aircraft and the Allies about 365. Oddly, the Allies lost 42 aircraft to flak...the Japanese just four! How is that possible?

If his CV's recently upgraded he got a bunch of rockets. Don't recall them being effective in real life. Can't figure out why your AA was not more effective, I thought proximity fuses really set the allies way ahead at this point in war.
Anyway, follow up and give em hell. You have to destroy the decks because Miller probably has a ton of good pilots

[Walloc]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
2.  The Japanese lost 500+ aircraft and the Allies about 365.  Oddly, the Allies lost 42 aircraft to flak...the Japanese just four!  How is that possible?

From looking at the Combat report as i dont have the replay. So I cant say im 100% certain on this. It seems the unescorted japanease raids are turned back by ur air alone so no flak in those cases.
The one time he do make it through, he hits the CVE force. Looking at the composition from the report it will have fairly light AA score as a TF. Dutch CL, CVE and those DDs arent high AA asserts.

Unlike that u hit full fledged CV TF full of BBs, CVs and DDs. The AA rating for those would be many times what ur CVE force has. Unless alot of ships isnt in the report.

In short the only time he is affected by flak its by a relatively light AA force, vs the several strikes from ur side against heavy AA rating TFs.
So im quite as supprised by the difference in flak losses.


Hope it helps,

Rasmus

[Kwik E Mart]

have you factored in your prep levels of LCU's in your decision? it would be a shame to waste the prep time of units prepared for china on another target...depending on the prep levels, i would think the overall effectiveness of the invasion force could be reduced significantly...

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I've factored that in.
 
At the moment, I'm inclined to proceed with the invasion of Hainan Island. 
 
But if I decided to pull back, the massive size of the Allied force would be sufficient to overwhelm the defenses at whichever targets I chose - for instance, the Allies could land at a base on Sumatra and spread out to take four or five bases.  Miller's forces are dispersed and thus prep would be relatively low for him too.
 
So I would "keep" the prep for the Chinese targets so that I could undertake the Chinese invasion pretty soon.
 
But, as stated, my preference now is to proceed to Hainan Island.  I've lost some of my CVE protection, but I no longer have the threat of facing the KB when I arrive.  Barring bad things happening over this next turn, that's what I'm going to do.

[anarchyintheuk]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

This has got to be one of the strangest combat results that I've ever seen:

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 120 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 52 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5b Zero x 333

Allied aircraft
Avenger II x 12
Corsair II x 4
Wildcat V x 4
FM-2 Wildcat x 70
F4U-1A Corsair x 16
F4U-1D Corsair x 11
F6F-3 Hellcat x 124
F6F-3N Hellcat x 3
F6F-5 Hellcat x 65
SB2C-3 Helldiver x 17
SBD-5 Dauntless x 20
TBF-1 Avenger x 20
TBM-1C Avenger x 129

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Avenger II: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
Wildcat V: 1 destroyed
FM-2 Wildcat: 2 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
F6F-3N Hellcat: 1 destroyed
F6F-5 Hellcat: 1 destroyed
SB2C-3 Helldiver: 2 destroyed, 6 damaged
SBD-5 Dauntless: 2 destroyed, 7 damaged
TBF-1 Avenger: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged
TBM-1C Avenger: 16 destroyed, 46 damaged

This has been going on all game, and I can't figure it out. It's not due to pilot training, because the Allied carrier fighter pilots are high experience (now mostly from upper 60s to upper 70s) and Miller tells me that his pilot experience is pretty low now.

Maybe check the air/aggressiveness ratings of your squadron leaders? About all I can think of.

[Kwik E Mart]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, I've factored that in.

At the moment, I'm inclined to proceed with the invasion of Hainan Island. 

But if I decided to pull back, the massive size of the Allied force would be sufficient to overwhelm the defenses at whichever targets I chose - for instance, the Allies could land at a base on Sumatra and spread out to take four or five bases.  Miller's forces are dispersed and thus prep would be relatively low for him too.

So I would "keep" the prep for the Chinese targets so that I could undertake the Chinese invasion pretty soon.

But, as stated, my preference now is to proceed to Hainan Island.  I've lost some of my CVE protection, but I no longer have the threat of facing the KB when I arrive.  Barring bad things happening over this next turn, that's what I'm going to do.

i think your logic is sound. worst case scenario is the jap LBA becomes a factor...but i would think/hope your CAP could absorb most of the attacks...

[Kwik E Mart]

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

This has got to be one of the strangest combat results that I've ever seen:

This has been going on all game, and I can't figure it out. It's not due to pilot training, because the Allied carrier fighter pilots are high experience (now mostly from upper 60s to upper 70s) and Miller tells me that his pilot experience is pretty low now.

Maybe check the air/aggressiveness ratings of your squadron leaders? About all I can think of.

any idea what altitude his CAP was at? you appear to have come in around 12k...it's conceivable they got the altitude/jump bonus. it looks like the TBM's took it on the chin. also conceivable that there wasn't enough escort to go around, or the escort got separated in the light rain. rough estimate is 3:2 escorts to attack planes...his CAP could have easily concentrated on a small portion of the attackers. last speculation is how far out the attack was detected. 120 NM gives plenty of time to get the CAP where it needs to be...just some musings...

[Canoerebel]

10/2/44 and 10/3/44
 
The Allied carriers managed to pick off some stragglers, took a bit of damage themselves and, perhaps most helpfully, quite a few IJN DDs were damaged or destroyed over the day.
 
Carrier Battles:  Allied aircraft put another TT and two B into CVL Nisshin, two TT into CV Shokaku, and 1 TT in CV Aso.  CVEs Bougainville and Matanikau each took a bomb and, given the brittleness of the CVEs, will retire.  I counted 14 IJN DDs taking damage along with two CL (Oi took 2 B and a T, Kitikami 1 B).  I was surprised that there weren't more carrier targets around; I was disappointed once again at the poor performance by Allied strike-aircraft pilots; and I bet Miller is chagrined that his LBA didn't sortie.
 
What this Means:  The Allied fleet is now well into the South China Sea and is in pretty good shape.  Despite the loss or damage to 12 CVE, the KB is no longer a factor.  The reduction in mission sorties probably isn't a big deal as I don't expect to encounter many more targets.  From this point forward the role for Allied carriers should be defensive (CAP for the invasion fleet).  So the Allies intend to proceed with Operation Seven Days (the invasion of Hainan Island).  It should take the armada about 5-7 days to reach the target.
 
Allied LBA:  Sortied in stout numbers against both Brunei's airfield and Singapore's port and airfield.  I think the bombers found a few ships at Singapore, but nothing like what I had expected.
 
Miller:  I think it's been a tough day for him, though not as bad as it might have been.  His last email indicated that he might send the turn back to me late today, but that will about rap of the action for today.  It's no fun losing carrier, but as usual his force put up a tough fight and didn't go down without a whimper.  Yet the Allies are pleased too.