Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

1/6/42 and 1/7/42
 
Invasion of Noumea:  D-Day was January 7 and went smoothly.  The troops are ashore in good shape, the opposition is as light as expected, and enemy air sorties from Luganville were readily handled by CAP (Japan losing 46 aircraft on the day to 8 for the Allies).  Early in the morning I-159 took a shot at CV Enterprise, which of course gave me a heart attack.  The carriers are just east of New Caledonia and will move a bit south of Noumea tomorrow.  The infantry should take the base tomorrow, thus permitting LBA to handle some of the CAP duty.  Most of the transports, combat ships, and carriers will begin retiring tomorrow if things go well.
 
What it Means:  This was the last of the major deception plans that have been in the works for a year - build up NoPac, invade islands in the Pacific (Baker a conquest, Wake a failure), reclaim Norfolk Island (done), ground offensive towards NW Oz (going well), invasion of Exmouth (accomplished), and finally the invasion of New Caledonia.  All of this is to give the impression of Allied intentions in NoPac, SoPac, and NW Oz/eastern DEI.  Everything suggest that Brad has taken due notice and is particularly concerned about the DEI.  The Alies will continue to feed these perceptions, while the real invasion of the western DEI is now just two months away (or thereabouts).
 
Oz:  The Allies will try another attack at Daly Waters tomorrow.  An IJ relief force just reclaimed Katherine, but I think it will be too late to save Daly Waters.  Whatever happens here is fine, though.  I just want my troops active, with lots of noise to hold Brad's attention.
 
India:  Japan is reinforcing Diego Garcia, which makes things a bit ticklish as it's not beyond possibility that Brad will commit carriers if he thinks he can hit a juicy amphibious force.

[Capt. Harlock]

1/6/42 and 1/7/42

That seems very early for a counter-invasion. I assume you meant 1943?[:D]

[Canoerebel]

Yup, 1943.

[Nemo121]

A query: Has your experience in your game vs ChezDaJez led you to re-evaluate your operational planning/strategic goals/phasing after the delay in this game?

[Canoerebel]

Interesting question, Nemo.

The intermission in this game, followed by the intense activity and thought given to the game with Chez, has made me much more knowledgeable about the game. I'm better able to "see" the map and understand how to employ my forces. This has translated into strategic, operational, and even some tactical changes in the way I'm playing.

Overall, though, I still like the core strategy for the Allies in this game. The basic outline -deceive Japan by giving every appearance that the Allies are concentrating on Oz, SoPac and NoPac; feints to take place towards NW Oz, New Guinea, and NoPac; followed by major Allied landings in Sumatra, Andamans and vicinity; followed by Allied landings in the Bonins, Marcus, and possibly Wake Island.

I may reverse the order of the last two - the CenPac operations may take place before the Indian Ocean operations. Not sure yet.

I've also tweaked the Indian Ocean operation - changing focus to western Sumatra rather than eastern. IMO this offers almost the same benefits at less risk.

Brad is a good player - he's very careful to protect his assets, but he's an aggressive player when he decides its time to strike. I consider him most dangerous. I believe he will have his air assets, plenty of naval assets, and decent garrisons in the Sumatra area.

I also beleive the Allied force will be so massive that success is probable. The Allies should get a massive lodgement in the area, which will permit the Allies to begin making Palembang, Singapore and Malaya very hot.

The next target for the Allies will almost certainly be Malaya and Burma.

[Nemo121]

One question as regards the rollback in India....

Might it make sense to, rather than just rolling his front line back, make a significant amphibious invasion of Burma now. That way you could trap his army in India, cause massive consternation and force the committment of his navy to the Indian Ocean to cover an amphibious evacuation of the trapped forces in India - giving you free rein in the Pacific. Most importantly taking Burma now, before he can create a proper defensive line, would move your future offensives in this area up by a year ( the amount of time it appears to take to grind down a proper Burma IJA defence in 43/44 ).

Could you post a map showing what Japan still currently holds around India? I've quite lost track of whom holds Ceylon.

[Canoerebel]

1/8/43

New Caledonia:  The Allies reclaim very lightly defended Noumea.  This is an interesting development - Brad thinks I've made a mistake by allocating so much to a lightly defended and "out of the way" location.  But for the Allies this was all about employing a major force to give the appearance of interest in a region the Allies aren't interested in.  And Japan missed a chance by being so ultra-cautious to protect against troop losses.  A decent garrison here - perhaps a regiment or a mixed brigade - would have prevented the Allies from doing this in all likelihhood, and would have given Japan a chance to strike at carriers had Brad attended to things.  He didn't care about New Caledonia, but by not caring he lost an opportunity.  With Noumea in Allied hands, all combat ships and carriers, and most transports, begin to retire to the south.
 
Oz:  The Allies get 3:1 odds at Daly Waters, dropping forts to one.  This base will change hands any day now.
 
Diego Garcia:  The Allies pretty much have to reclaim this base prior to any move on Sumatra.  The downside is that such a move will, in Brad's mind, raise the threat level to Sumatra.  So the Allies will try to get by without using too much force or any new assets.

[Canoerebel]

The Indian operation essentially wrapped up weeks ago:
 
1.  About seven divisions were trapped in India.  Five of those have since been eliminated.  Two (1st near Calcutta and 48th south of Bombay) are rotting in the jungles.  Brad asked that I eliminate those isolated divisions so that he can rebuild them (we're not playing with the beta patch) and I accomidated him, though I really thought the isolation was the price he paid for such a massive invasion of India.
 
2.  All that's left is a few very small units in Ceylon, which are being mopped up.  
 
3.  The Japanese have a decent force at Akyab.  The Allies will maneuver behind it, showing some major units (including a Marine regiment) so that Brad might surmise that the next course of action is an overland campaign into Burma.  Japan does have at least one division (18th) in upper Burma.
 
4.  Any move further east towards Moulmein, Tavoy or the Malay coast would require Allied carriers to provide CAP.  That would result in a concentration of IJ land, sea and air forces in the region.  I don't want that prior to the Sumatra invasion, so I won't do it.  (The Allied carriers are about to "disappear" from sight, except for CVEs which I may employ here and there).
 
5.  The Sumatra campaign is tentatively scheduled for late March (to allow some AP conversion to APAs), but that's subject to being moved up if I like the looks of things.  Most troops are now in place in Oz, India and Capetown.  Most ships are in place - the final installment of APs is currently enroute from San Diego carrying the last base forces.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

1/9/43
 
New Caledonia:  The Allied ships have withdrawn to the south, leaving behind just a few xAK unloading supplies.  Kiwi Kittyhawks have taken over local CAP duty.  The Allies will bring in more engineers and will take action to give the appearance of genuine interest in Efate and Luganville.  Indeed, troops have been prepping for Luganville for a long time, and eventually the Allies will move on that base, but the main thing for the next two months is to build and bomb and have ships active in this theater.

Oz:  The Aussies reclaim Daly Waters.  Two IJA regiments and an armored unit are trapped and will be pummeled to death.  An Aussie armored unit slipped over to Derby and found it garrisoned by a small IJ base force.  I don't know if 20 AV is enough to take the base, but the Aussie cav will shock attack tomorrow.  Again, this is more about noise and perception than territory.

Diego Garcia:  The Japanese brought in another unit - I'm guessing no more than a Naval Guard.  I have a UK brigade (understrenght at about 60 AV) and an Aussie pioneer unit (40 AV) on the way.  I'll sniff around and establish pickets before committing the troops.  If more are needed, an understrength Indian division is at Mangalore - I'll have to pay PP for it, but that's okay as it can later take part in the Sumatra/Nicobars/Andaman campaign.

Akyab:  The Japanese have evacuated Akyab due to the threat posed by Allied units just to the west.  The Allies will send unrestricted units, including a Marine regiment, across the border to give the appearance of a mounting threat to western Burma.  The use of Allied 4EB is increasing in tempo to further appearances.

Vacation:  Canoe HQ will be on vacation for a week.  This may be my last report until late next weekend.  You guys have a good one and I'll see you on the waning side of June.

[Cribtop]

Have fun!

[Canoerebel]

1/10/43
 
Back to regularly scheduled life, where it will be a little hard to get back into the routine of things. 
 
India:  The Allies should reclaim Trincomalee within the week.  The enemy has abandoned Akyab, which will be taken in a few days.  Diego Garcia is the last holdout.
 
Sumatra:  Oops, Brad just discovered one of several hold-out Dutch units secreted in the middle of the jungle.  This isn't good - both because it'll give his spidey senses a tweak and because I was counting on these little commando units for a little pre-invasion intel.
 
China:  I think the front north of Sian will become static again.  I need to reconfirgure my MLR to make it more uniform.  To the far south, it appears that the Chinese will have enough to eventually break through the small IJ stack in the forests west of Liuchow.
 
SoPac:  The carriers continue their withdrawal from Noumea - they are more than halfway to Hobart, where they'll refuel.  From there they probably got to Melbourne or Adelaide to attend to replenishment and any needed upgrades.
 
Status:  The Allies are still looking at a Sumatra invasion for late March.

[Canoerebel]

1/11/43 to 1/14/43
 
India:  The Allies have taken Trincomalee and Akyab. A small amphibious force is approaching Diego Garcia, with D-Day in a day or two.  There are two IJ units of unknown strength at Diego, and I'm bringing just 100 AV in the first wave.  Allied picket destroyers east and northeast of Diego tangled with a small transport fleet, sinking a PB and an xAK or three.  I really expected Brad to try to orchestrate an ambush at Deigo since he has patrol aircraft picking up my activity.  We'll see.
 
China:  The Chinese have evicted most of the small IJA stack in the forest west of Liuchow, roughing up an IJ division in the process.
 
CenPac:  The Allies are shifting some ships around in preparation for the eventual feint in NoPac and the "real thing" vs. Iwo, Marcus and Wake Island.
 
SoPac:  The Allies are bombing Efate daily as part of the "hey, we're fixated on the New Hebrides" maskirovka.  Engineers are about to land at Noumea.  The carriers will arrive at Melbourne tonight.
 
SWPac:  The Allies have extinquished the two regiments and armored unit that were trapped at Daly Waters.  I think the Japanese have 20th Div. over at Katherine.  IJ bombers are paying a great deal of attention to Exmouth, the small Aussie armored unit at Derby, and the like.  Also, lots of SigInt of engineers and other units bound for Koepang and Soerabaja.
 
Sumatra:  Brad's no dummy.  He's building his defenses at Sumatra.  But he's clearly focused on the threat aimed at NW Oz and Timor.  That's good.  I feel pretty confident that the Allies will arrive at Sumatra, the Nicobars and the Andamans in such overwhelming numbers that the enemy won't be able to stop them.  9th Aussie Div. just arrived at Aden and will prep for Sabang.

[Canoerebel]

Place Holder (to aid in keeping notes in planning for the Invasion of Sumatra):

I.  Indian Ocean Forces
   A.  Ground Units
   B.  Transports
        1)  Troop Ships
             a)  AP - four with total capacity 12k
             b)  xAP - 5k to 8k capacity - 8 (roughly 40k capacity)
             c)  xAP - 2k to 4k capacity - 23 (roughly 65k capacity)

        2)  Supply and Cargo
             a)  xAK - 5k to 8k capacity - 69 (roughly 364k capacity)
             b)  xAK - 2k to 4k capacity - 113 (roughly 340k capacity)

        3)  Total Lift Capacity Estimated 1/17/43
             a)  AP and xAP - 117k
             b)  xAK - 700k

4) Lift Need (examples for estimating)
a) 9th Australian Division - 10 troop, 20 supply
b) 7th Indian Divsion (340 AV) - 7 troop, 8 supply
c) 5h Marines (142 AV) - 3.5 troop, 3.8 supply
d) 5th UK Bde (136 AV) - 2.8 troop, 4.3 supply
e) Present lift capacity might be sufficient to carry roughly five to seven division
equivalents (more transports are on the way from Panama Canal,
including LST and LCI).

   C.  Combat Ships

II.  Australian Forces
   A.  Ground Units
1) 6th Oz Division (Sabang)
2) 40th Div. (Padang)
3) 32nd Div. (Padang)
4) 43rd Div. (Sibolga)
5) 41 Div. (Padang)
6) 22 Mar (Padang); 21 Mar (Sibolga); 3 Mar (Sabang)
7) 112 Cav RCT (Batoi eilenden)
8) 193 Tanks (Padang)

   B.  Transports
1) Troop Ships
a) AP - 18 (total lift capacity roughly 60k)
b) xAP 9k to 10k cacapity - 2 (roughly 18k)
c) xAP - 5k to 8k capacity - 2 (roughly 12k capacity)
d) xAP - 2k to 4k capacity - 49 (roughly 140k capacity)
e) xAP - 1k capacity - 15 (roughly 15k capacity)

2) Supply and Cargo
a) xAK - 5k to 8k capacity - 49 (roughly 265k capacity)
b) xAK - 2k to 4k capacity - 42 (roughly 140k capacity)
c) xAk - 1k capacity - 13 (roughly 13k capacity)

3) Total Lift Capacity Estimated 1/17/43
a) AP and xAP - 245k
b) xAK - 415k

4) Lift Need (examples for estimating) - It seems that Oz is on track to have double the lift capacity of the Indian Ocean component, so roughly 10 to 14 division equivalents.

   C.  Combat Ships

III. Things to Do

A. In proporation to troop lift capacity, it seems that Australia has much less cargo capacity than does the Indian Ocean force. Consider shifting xAK to Oz and evaluate xAK levels in the Pacific and West Coast to see if extras can be sent to Oz.

B. The IO component is mainly responsible for Sabang and vicinity, while the Oz component is mainly responsible for Padang and vicinity. I need to re-evaluate quickly. Can the Allies really make two separate major landings close to enemy airfields. Allied carriers will cover, but only one effectively. Could the Allies invade sequentially (probably not, but evaluate). If done sequentlially, the Allies might be best served sending the Padang forc ein first, covered by carriers. That would draw a major response. The Sabang force could then go in covered by escort carriers, relying on distance and diversion to overwhelm the defenses. This will tkae some thought.

[JohnDillworth]

Troop Ships
             1)  AP - four with total capacity 12k

only 4AP's for your most important invasion? Have you lost any or are hey bust elsewhere?
thanks

[Canoerebel]

Most of the infantry divisions are in Australia, so that's where most of the troop transports are (or are heading).  One reason for this excercise is to see if I need to move any ships around to handle the highest priority troops.  There's no way I'm going to be able to carry everything, so I want to prioritize.  You'll see the info for Australia added to the post above in just a little while.

[Canoerebel]

Based upon early analysis of my forces and "the lay of the land" on western Sumatra, I need to decide between two plans:

1)  The current plan:  UK and Indian troops to land at Sabang, Andamans and vicinity in force while American and Oz troops land at Padang and vicinty in force.  The problem with this plan is that the two beachheads are widely separated and Padang is close to Singapore, a level nine airfield.

2)  Option B:  UK and Indian troops do the same thing (Sabang and vinicty) while the Americans and Australians land at Sibolga and vicinity.  The Sabang troops could then move east along the north coast, while the Am/Aussies could cross the island directly to the base (Tandjo-something) on the north coast.  Both contingents would be in supporting range of each other, and dropping roughly ten divisions in such a confined area would be certain to overwhelm the defenses.  Moreover, these beachheads are closer together, allowing mutual support by Allied carriers, and the closest enemy airbases are level fives.

If I adopt the second plan, and if the Allies succeed in taking all of western (true map) Sumatra, that would place the Allies firmly in control of at least five bases that can be built large, and which are in close proximity to the Malay Peninsula.  Thus, the Allies would then be a threat to invade there or to invade someplace in eastern Sumatra, like Padang.

I'm not certain which way I'm going to go, yet.  I'm leaning towards the latter, but I need to make some quick decisions.

[Cribtop]

Is there anything in southern Sumatra (map southern) that you need? If not I vote plan B. You can bomb Palembang to ashes for example, without taking it. One question to ask is "what's next if the invasion succeeds?" How and where you exploit success may answer the question for you.

[Chickenboy]

Hi Canoerebel,
 
I can't comment on a recommended course of action, as I am also reading your opponent's AAR.  Anyways, glad things are moving forward in your game and keep up the good work.

[JeffroK]

Be careful of having too big a force in Sumatra, I agree hit him with a big stick but dont get caught concentrating too many of your effective LCU on the island.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Hi Canoerebel,

I can't comment on a recommended course of action, as I am also reading your opponent's AAR.  Anyways, glad things are moving forward in your game and keep up the good work.

Wot!

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